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lclark21324

Polar vortex for eastern US?

Saw on my Twitter that the east could get some very cold weather after New Year’s. Like 30+ degrees below average

Comments (66)

  • last month

    I hate to speak too soon because things can change quickly around here but we too are having intermittent nightly lows only in the 6a-5b range and the daytime temperature relatively mild.


    The remarkable part is even though it isn't that cold, the cold seems to be penetrating further south than normal. Yesterday this map showed the cold further west and taking in Oklahoma and the north half of Texas plus all of Arkansas and Tennessee on into Virginia.


  • last month
    last modified: last month

    Low of 3F here this morning. 3.5" of snow couple days ago hasn't melted any yet.

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  • last month

    I noticed that too, David. The highs are very cold, but the lows are not all that bad. nothing record breaking for lows.

  • last month
    last modified: last month

    Expecting 3-5" of snow in the next 12 hours.

    That will be good considering a few subzero temps on the way by end of next week.

    I heard they had quite a blizzard down south.

    Down there it's generally freezing rain (ice) then slush, then wet heavy snow that comes later in the storm.

  • last month
    last modified: last month

    Snow cover today. Jet stream pushed south also pushed the snow south.



  • last month

    We had snow last night but with sun coming up it quickly starts to melt.

    It has been around 20~40F past days. Wintersweet faithfully blooms in time regardless of the weather.



  • last month

    Here in NE Pa our last few winters have given me a lazy edge as far as snow removal goes. It was enough to do a crappy job and then wait for the sun and warmer weather to melt it off into clear walks and drives, but this year all the talk has me nervous and I'm out there after each storm cleaning as if the snow will last all month... but it hasn't... I think Bill already pointed out that the highs aren't that high but the lows also aren't much lower than you'd expect. It's a remarkably steady winter and here at least it's a surprise not being able to plant a few more things in January and clean up a few other things which always get away from you in the fall, since we have been having more 'winter thaws' than actual winter the last few years.

    So I'm actually enjoying catching up on a few of the winter things I usually skip when snow and frozen soil isn't keeping me inside. Seeds are getting planted early enough to go outside and still catch enough cold to stratify, my houseplants are actually getting watered on a regular basis and not being ignored in favor of the outside stuff, and best of all I'm not concerned about stuff sprouting too early or blasts of cold being too cold. A few witch hazels are opening but that's about normal, and honestly the thing I'm most worried about is if things do warm enough for things to sprout I will have an extreme case of spring fever on my hands. Last year I was almost bored with the garden when early stuff was lasting forever, so this year when we come off the cold it's to be an explosion of snowdrops and crocus and willows all from day to day and I'll be about drunk on chlorophyll after this dry January.

  • last month

    1-12-2025:

    After yesterday's high of 20d, we awoke to 13d and about 6" of cold, fine snow. The kind that blows great if you're using a 2-stage snow blower. The snow going out the shoot creates a vacuum, sucking up the snow where the auger pulls it in at the front. Goes farther that way. And the light NW wind this AM was perfect for blowing without it coming back in your face. Yes, it's an acquired skill. :-)


    Took me less than an hour to do some preliminary shoveling on a ~35'x16' driveway and shoveling the front steps. Beats going to the gym but then I'm an outdoorsy guy anyways. ;-)

    Wind increasing to 20-25 mph today, temps dropping, sun popping out, -11 tonight. :o|


  • last month

    Not so concerned about the cold (mostly about 40 F by day and mid 20's at night), bigger issue is lack of winter precipitation, just endless sunny days (nice, but DRY!), very different from last winter with the flooding!

  • last month
    last modified: last month

    Yikes. My forecast has been updated to have 3 days of single digit low temps next week. It's been a long while since that happened. This winter is feeling more and more like 'polar vortex light'. Hopefully the predicted change to a mild pattern in February pans out. Nvm the plants, my older house isn't as well insulated as it could be and the propane is costing me big bucks.


    And, yes as 41 North said, it's been dry and there's little hope at this point of having 'normal' precip for January. At least we did for December - first month since June around here!

  • last month

    I’m about to get polar vortex’ed. Very cold

  • last month

    That polar beast is now forecasted to move to the coast. Gulf seems shut down for business, and this follows an extremely arid and WARM Fall, (September-November). Think we are headed for a La Niña year, and those are all over the place with less predictable implications (at least fro the NE).

  • last month
    last modified: last month

    Here's my weekend.

    Lefthand column are the highs.

    Cold going all the way into Texas.

  • last month

    For the record, this is technically not a true polar vortex. The coldest air mass is still bottled up in the polar region and this is some adjacent air being pulled down. The coldest it will be here is -9F compared to -25F when the polar vortex hit.

    tj

  • last month

    I'll agree. The temperatures I posted above are fairly mild and short lived compared to what we have had in the past and could get any time this season.

    35-40 mph NNW winds today with higher gusts.


  • last month

    Same here - very cold but not unusual, and short lived. Coldest near forecast for me is -3, but by the next day the low is +13.

  • last month

    Coldest in the forecast here is +1. It isn't an almost total lack of winter like last year, but also isn't remotely close to anything to get excited about.

    The rosemary is sitting on the kitchen floor. That is my sole concession to this so-called cold.

  • last month

    The third week of January is usually the coldest freakin week of January here. Hopefully, 7 F is our bottom basement this year.

  • last month

    Up here, once we get past Tuesday, the lowest low will be -3 for the rest of the January.

  • 29 days ago

    They seemed to up the temp minimums from mid single digits to 10-12 F. Pretty crazy about a Gulf Coast winter storm forecasted.

  • 29 days ago

    High of -3 today. so cold

  • 28 days ago
    last modified: 28 days ago

    -3F this morning. Not quite as cold as predicted. Rhododendrons look like skeletons.


    Looks like the entire state of Louisiana getting snowed on.

  • 28 days ago
    last modified: 28 days ago

    Here's a polar vortex for you. -27d this morning, still within our z4a temperature range and really, not that unusual in our continental climate this time of year.

    We could be 'out of the woods' with -12d forecast for tonight and then ~0d or above for lows the next couple of weeks. In February the averages rise but who knows.

    Septentrional at its best/worst? ;-)


  • 28 days ago

    Beng - Yes, the regional intensity of this arctic wave for the NE, midwest, and mid Atlantic may not be what it was a decade ago, but its breadth and magnitude is nothing to scoff at. Snow in New Orleans and over the Gulf of Mexico, eerrr Gulf of America (lol) is impressive!

  • 28 days ago
    last modified: 26 days ago

    Apparently light winds prevented a record for-the-day temp in Canaan Valley, WV -- only -16F there (the other morning was slightly colder). Might be colder tomorrow morning tho.

    In early Feb, 1996, the core of an arctic high sat over southwest VA and produced temps from -24F to -27F in valleys. Mountain Lake near where I lived in southwest VA had -30F in Jan 1985 -- state record. IIRC, same event produced -19F where I lived at the time. Key to unlock car-door wouldn't budge. Same event unofficially registered -34F on Peaks of Otter on Blue Ridge near Roanoke, VA. Sign near top of Spruce Knob, WV said logging camp registered -46F (unofficial) in Jan 1940. Oakland, MD has state record at -40F in Jan 1912.

  • 28 days ago
    last modified: 28 days ago

    I was surprised that, with the cold penetrating so far south, that we would've had a real humdinger of a cold snap in January. It did get a few degrees colder here than first forecast but if it doesn't get colder than -30, and that cold only once or so this season, I can't ask for any better in this area.

    Aside from these 'dead of winter' cold snaps, my growing season isn't all that much different than many of those z4 z5 in the Midwest (generally, a couple weeks shorter on either end). But it's these 1-2 months, where cold air vortexes rule, that drastically lowers my growing zone.


    eta: A few hours later this morning, a 28d increase in temps. here. We need a wall. lol


  • 27 days ago
    last modified: 26 days ago

    -10F here this morning. -23F in Canaan Valley, WV. -16F in nearby Meyersdale, PA and -22F just north of there. Brother's son in Slidell, LA (just north of New Orleans) has 10" snow on ground. Some guesses were a 70-80 yr event there.

  • 27 days ago

    Who'd of thought? Won't last long though.


  • 27 days ago

    We have had snow again, cold 18F. But again the snow probably will melt soon

    Flowering Apricot trees start to bloom


  • 27 days ago

    According to Joe Bastardi, this month now the coldest nationally this century and fourth coldest since 1980. So, I'd say not overhyped at all, and maybe even under hype.


  • 27 days ago
    last modified: 27 days ago

    Yeah I agree w/what L Clark posted, although, thankfully, we on the east coast at least, are not having perilous lows compared to 1994, or even 2014...the breadth of the cold, almost from coast to coast, does seem extraordinary. 7F for a low so far here, and hopefully it stays that way. I'm "zone 7b" according to the newest revision, so I can't complain about that! It must be surreal for New Orleans to be under several inches of snow.

    As for rhododendrons looking like skeletons, that's actually a normal adaptation, so nothing to worry about. I'd be worried if they weren't rolling their leaves! Illiciums do something even uglier where the leaves look like they've been boiled. But they will rehydrate when it warms up. Illicium henryi is certainly one of the hardiest 'exotic' looking BLE, having survived -16F at Barry Yinger's old garden in central PA.

    What I am worried about is this being yet another dry month...and the persistent pattern, since last spring, of the long range forecast calling for normal or above normal rainfall, but it doesn't happen. We will see if early February is actually rainy.



    Also interesting how Great Lakes ice has taken a pretty aggressive 'reversion to the mean' this month!

    https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/spaghetti/bas_ice_compare.png


    it's still mostly ice free, of course

    https://apps.glerl.noaa.gov/coastwatch/webdata/glsea/cur/glsea_cur_3.png


  • 26 days ago

    We're finally climbing out of the deep freeze. Sun angle is >4d higher than on the winter equinox and daylength is >50 minutes longer.

    It was interesting to see that the Winnipeg sun angle is just now matching what ours was on Dec 21.


    The quirky thing this winter was the lack of any big storms that we generally get with all the fluctuating temperatures and pressure. Some light snow for Friday.


    We're looking at some above freezing temperatures according to the 10-day forecast but anything's possible in our Septentrional area. :-)

    .

  • 25 days ago
    last modified: 25 days ago
  • 24 days ago
    last modified: 24 days ago

    I'm praying to the weather gods (not something worth bothering a real deity...) that we are out of the woods this year. Shocking cold spells are rarer in Feb. but not impossible....but all the long range forecasting now is for normal to warm conditions next month. My low was 6F, which is slightly below the average I've calculated since I've lived here. So, a cold winter by that measure, but not nearly as bad as it could have been. Just north of me, MANY locations in York, Lancaster, and even Chester counties, went below 0F, sometimes well below it! The Upper Bay is just starting to freeze, so its ability to 'protect' me from further cold, would now be diminished if this nonsense continued.

    I'll do a damage report eventually but I'll avoid the mistake of making one too early. With certain broad leaved evergreens, cryptic damage can appear much later in spring. I don't particularly care about keeping a Trachycarpus alive, but it's a useful indicator plant. Mine, along a south facing wall, is looking fine. (In contrast to obscure broad leaved evergreen, their fronds show damage very quickly; and it's not very big, nowhere near trunking.) So overall I feel like I dodged a bullet!

  • 24 days ago
    last modified: 24 days ago

    -27F in Canaan Valley WV on coldest day.

    Wow, David, a palm 'apparently' doing OK after 6F!

  • 24 days ago

    At times the temperature isn't as important as the amount of time it stays that cold.


    Interestingly, Trachycarpus is rated down to USDA zone 7 (z7a 0-5?) but then when you look at 'Cold Hardiness' it shows only down to 10F. Then to consider all the 'Protected Area' and micro-climate variables that enter in....

    And I know you've done things to enhance survival, david and do hope all your plants survive. :-)


    Some parts of Texas showed single digits above for 2-3 days in a row, last week so I'm sure reports will be coming in about winter damage after the next months.


    In my area, I know we could get a few more cold snaps but so far, forecasts seem to say not as bad for February. Two of my zone pushers are cold hardy down to -30f the other down to -20f and all are heavily covered with snow at this time. Two of them are located where ground freeze was absent last winter. When we farmed, we knew we were 'Rolling the Dice' every year and that it came with the territory.

  • 24 days ago

    Palms & cycads recently in Slidell, Louisiana.



  • 24 days ago

    For a while now, I've wondered if the real zone determinate should be the lowest high instead of the lowest low. It's harder to dig out of the data, but shouldn't be that hard for computers.

  • 24 days ago

    Gallica, you raise an important point that hardiness (nevermind overall plant adaptability*) is a complex interplay of many factors. Nevertheless we know from scientific experiments that for any given individual of a particular plant species, there is an absolute minimum temperature its tissue can survive without destruction. For Trachy leaves, the typical figure is 0 to 5F. This has actually been experimentally verified by a cryobiologist who was once actively researching the topic in the Washington DC area. If an actual Trachycarpus palm tree happens to survive slightly lower temps for a while, it's either because the heart of the tree (the "heart of palm") stayed a little warmer due to insolation and insulation, or because that tissue had a slightly different temp. tolerance.

    I think there's still a lot of research that could be done in this area. For example why can Phoenix palms survive shocking lows in the desert southwest they would never survive in the southeast, or even along the west coast? Is the 'heart' of those palms actually pretty cold resistant, but it just essentially rots when it experiences a massive freeze in a winter wet climate...while it doesn't in a desert climate? I'd be curious to know. Alas, if any research monies - probably corporate - are going into plant hardiness research these days, it's probably into seeing if plants could be genetically modified to be hardier. Which I have mixed feelings about, but whatever my feelings are, I believe it's likely to happen eventually. Not sure Phoenix palms will have the same cachet if we someday see them lining the water front of say, the Battery Park in NYC. (maybe New Yorkers will object to the planting of GMO ornamentals, though ;-) ) We could be as little as a decade or two from that, I think. The DC guy knew of people who were 'working on it'.


    * FWIW, it's the summer heat hardiness map that should have worked on average night/LOW temperature in summer, vs. number of days with highs over 90F. I know for a fact that's a far more determinative measure for most heat sensitive plants; as I've said before cinnabarinum rhododendrons can grow in parts of Sonoma county CA that had as many days over 90F as I have here, but always have chilly nights!



  • 24 days ago
    last modified: 24 days ago

    " but shouldn't be that hard for computers."

    with the amount of AI data processing available now, I've thought we should have something like the Sunset zones, but for the entire country, and taking into account winter and summer temps average and extreme temps, and moisture/aridity. (High County Gardens has developed their own scale for the latter) Alas just as Sunset's eastern zones never took off, I think it would be too complicated for some people. But it would capture, for example, that Phoenix palms could grow in Las Cruces, but not in Virginia Beach, VA, even though both are 8a. As it is, we're probably lucky they keep updating the good old USDA zones. I remember the agonizing wait for those to be updated leading up to, what was it, 2012? But I know the local area's temps - I'm counting a lot of SE PA, eastern MD, and SW NJ as a kind of local to me - and the newest, 2023 data release is pretty darn accurate. Now the question is will plantings catch up to the map...in 10-20 years, will Trachy palms be seen on Kent Island Maryland? Just in time for them to go underwater LOL. Just in the part of my lifespan as a sentient adult (harhar), Virginia Beach has gone from having a handful of Trachys to now having thousands of them, and easily hundreds of mature pindoes. It's a combination of more people planting them, and fewer cold winters. Even most Trachys were killed there in 1985 - I know from first hand accounts of a local landscaper who was a friend of Fred Heutte. (Mind you, I don't think people should plant based on once-a-century winters.)

  • 24 days ago

    I don't remember 1985 being particularly bad around Philadelphia. 1986 was the year my project manager had just built a new house with a heat pump, and had to spend half the night trying to defrost the silly thing for about a week. Then we moved to suburban D.C., so had a ringside seat for the sideshow of '88, when half the city government was in San Diego for the Super Bowl, and half the city streets weren't plowed. I think that was also the winter the National Arboretum lost their crepe myrtles.

    Then it was back to Philly. Where, as they used to say on Batman, 'The worst is yet to come'. Can you say 'nuclear winter'? 1991 was the year we went home to Pittsburgh for Christmas, and came back to a house with frozen pipes. Then in 1992 the weather station on Independence Mall had a reading below zero, and there was serious concern for Hallowell's azalea collection that had been moved to Penn State Ogontz. I don't remember what the headline read, but the lead headline on the Inquirer was in the largest typeface I have ever seen on a current paper.


    The problem with the Sunset zones, and any other 'improved' system is that the USDA zone system has two parts. There is the 'what zone am I in' part, then there is the 'what zone does this plant grow in' part, aka the database. If you read pre-USDA zone gardening books, it becomes apparent that for most plants the original zone information was along the lines of

    • if the National Arboretum can grow it - zone 7
    • if the Arnold Arboretum can grow it - zone 6
    • if the Morton Arboretum can grow it - zone 5

    It's simple, straightforward, and works for a large number of plants. How do you acquire, vet, and compile a comparable database with more variables? That's been the question.

    IMHO, the most accurate USDA map is actually the first one. The second overcorrected for Pinatubo. The second overcorrected for the overcorrection for Pinatubo.

  • 11 days ago

    Lows producing wet snow/freezing rain/rain suddenly coming again and again at the mid-Atlantic states, at least.

  • 11 days ago

    🛌💤 3-5" Snow forecast for tonight. 💤

    Winds <=10mph. Then a few nights below zero.

    Sunny! 😎

    💤🐧🐻‍❄️

  • 8 days ago

    The 'Capitol Weather Gang' is pointing out that DC will likely have the first winter of 'average or above' snowfall since 2018-2019. It definitely feels like the coldest winter since that one. Alas in terms of damage - here's a sneak peak of my damage report which I won't post until much later when it's absolutely clear what has recovered and what hasn't: definitely the worst winter since the polar vortex winters of 2013-2015! But there are many surprising twists. Who would have thought the Australian subshrub Veronica perfoliata would hold up much better than Ilex × attenuata 'Alagold'. There seem to be no 'Alagold' north of Raleigh, for example the Scott Arboretum says 'Previously accessioned No longer in living collection'. Looks like I've found out why! I'll probably deaccession it, too. 'Bienville Gold' from Louisiana is just fine, as is, obviously 'Longwood Gold'. I got my BG from cuttings from an old tree at U. Delaware in Newark, so it's seen some cold winters.

    Anyhow back to the matter at hand, point is, many BLEs are stressed from the combination of a summer drought and then one of the driest fall spells ever. A cold winter on top of that was just too much for them. Rare species Camellias are looking especially bad.

    Knock on wood but the good news is I think we are done with the severe cold <= 10F. In my study of mid-Atlantic/upper South climate, in a normal year, if you get past mid February, you're basically clear from extreme cold. There was one surprise winter in the 1990s, that had been mild until about Feb 16th and then dropped to 0F or below in parts of the upper South. (OTOH, if you're already having a hellishly cold winter, early March can be very cold, as happened during the polar vortex winters)

  • 8 days ago
    last modified: 8 days ago

    Hope all goes well for you david!

    We're seeing a colder, than what was forecast last week, for temps this week.

    I can't complain because the lows coming this week, isn't abnormal for this area, even though they are hitting the bottom end of z4a.

    So, it looks like February will be colder than January after all.

    Generally, when it's cold in Dec, Jan, Feb, the weather improves by March.

    This is all speculation, but this winter is shaking out to be a more 'Normal' (la`nina, colder and wetter). If it stays the course, we should see an upswing in the weather in two weeks, give or take. 🤞


  • 7 days ago

    David, one exception to what you mention was 2015 when severe cold struck in the later half of Feb and into the first week of March! I had a row of about 5 days then in March that morning lows ranged from from 4F to -2F. Of course, there the the "storm of the century" in mid-March 1993 where in southwest VA I had about 26" of snow (and 4ft drifts) and a low of 3F. There was massive flooding afterwards due to a heavy rainstorm event falling on and melting all that snow at once.

  • 7 days ago

    March was quite cold in both polar vortex years (2014 & 2015) at my location. The average temp for March 2014 was more than 10 degrees below normal, dipping below zero 3 days. The average for March 2015 was about 4 degrees below normal (sub zero 4 days). That Feb (2015) was almost 16 degrees below normal, falling below zero 16 out of 28 days! The coldest temp I've ever experienced was 2/20/15 at -29F (I believe that was likely the all-time record low here). Lots of damage to tender plants after those 2 winters.


    What a difference a year can make. Last winter had to be the mildest I've seen in my lifetime. December 2023 was almost 9 degrees above normal, January 2024 was about 3 degrees above normal, and February 2024 was almost 10 degrees above normal. This winter we're running somewhat below normal: Dec 2024 was slightly below (0.1), January was about 4 degrees below, and this February is also on track to end up below normal.

    Arnold Promise Witch-hazel 2/11/24

    Arnold Promise Witch-hazel today (2/11/25)


  • 7 days ago

    David, one exception to what you mention was 2015 when severe cold struck in the later half of Feb and into the first week of March!


    Right, but Jan 2015 had already been very cold. Although it's funny how memory works, I remembered it as being much colder than Jan 2025, but it really wasn't. They are actually quite similar. And in fact if you compare the first two months of winter, Dec 2014-Jan 2015 vs. Dec 2024-Jan 2025, it's a wash...locally at least, this winter is just as bad as "Polar Vortex Part 2"!* I think it felt so shocking back then because we'd already had a cold winter, 2013-2014, and I knew the second would finish off what the first one hadn't. My 20'+ Eucalyptus parvula actually resprouted from the base after PV-1. PV-2 finished it off.


    So I would say exceptions to my rule are in fact very, rare, but, I was misapplying my rule, more than I realized! TBH I was looking at the 10 day forecast, that for now at least, that doesn't portend anything quite like the single digits we had on the 19th and 24th of Feb 2015. (and my memory is that both PV-1 and PV-2 had single digits in early March) It's still supposed to be cold, mind you. But I'm fine with that because everything is very much still asleep.


    * - and the good news is I've gotten a little smarter since then. The current only 'gum tree' I have in the garden is Eucalyptus neglecta, and unlike the E. parvula, I planted it on a south slope. That appears to have made a big difference, as it still looks definitely alive. But will have to wait a few months, it could have bark damage or something. I've learned by now you can never evaluate broad leaved evergreens at this point.



  • 6 days ago
    last modified: 6 days ago

    Glow-bull warming hits Japan.

    https://youtu.be/gBrra6y45GQ

  • 6 days ago

    Now that's snow cover!!

    This will be my last 'Vortex' picture. which is NOT out of the ordinary for this area this time of year.

    We had -27df last night, right as the sun broke the horizon but moderations are in the future.

    Looks like International Falls won the prize again this year. :-)

    I'm going back to bed.💤💤💤💤