I'll let you know in 6-12 months. 😉

Miami Beach declares state of emergency and curfew as spring break crowds spark safety concerns

With breaking news like this it doesn't bode well. Idiots.

We've been hearing of another wave coming to us from the West. Used to be we would watch the west for big weather coming our way. This is more concerning. Our vaccination rate is getting better, but it's been slow.

Just a dip...

I think we will have to wait and see. The variants are certainly a concern. I think we can expect a surge after spring break. I think vaccine availability/sites are opening up, so can only hope within the next few weeks many more will be vaccinated.

Ya, I think it's just a dip too. I think so many people just want to get on with their lives that there's a good deal of wishful thinking going on.

It just feels like a brief reprieve to me. We are nowhere near herd immunity.

Too many people are unwilling to continue (or even begin for some) to be careful by wearing masks, social distancing, washing hands. We are fully vaccinated, but will keep on using precautions until further notice.

I think people will continue to be vaccinated, the vaccines will either eliminate COVID and its variants or greatly reduce their severity (ie to a sickness that will not require hospitalization), and everything will revert to the status quo ante by year end if not sooner.

Those who are refusing vaccines can read up on Darwinism or get with the program.

I remember last year thinking there would not be significant improvement until end of 2Q 2021 - not too far off I guess. Will be interesting to see if things turn out as you predict by end of year Mtn - hopefully so.

At the current rate of vaccinations...I really feel like we have taken some of the wind out of Covid’s sails. It’s certainly not going to be eradicated by summer, but I’d put quite a bit of money on the fact that the worst is behind us. I think there will be localized case spikes, but I think since we have now protected the most vulnerable...we won’t see anything like the death rates we saw in December/Jan.

Where I live, most people still wear masks and social distance.

I just asked a friend about this yesterday evening. She's a nurse practitioner working in a large Chicago hospital and has been working with Covid patients for the past year. She simply said, we don't know yet. We should get vaccinated when we can, but she said experts are not certain it will protect against the variants. It's just too soon to know. A year ago, we were hoarding toilet paper and sanitizing our mail--we only know what we know now.

As vaccines began rolling out, Fauci and the CDC were (and still are) recommending no unnecessary travel or eating indoors for a few more months, even when you’re fully vaccinated, as these activities cause cases to surge. Sure enough, just as Fauci predicted, cases are going up again due to spring breakers and restaurant restrictions lifted, not to mention the states that have totally opened up. Mar a Lago is shut down and Miami has declared a state of emergency until the 24th.

Nevertheless, I’ll bet summer travel returns to almost normal levels. Clearly many people are done with Covid, even though it’s not done with us. I think we need about 180-190 million adults vaccinated to reach herd immunity and we’re not even close to that yet. And about 40 million people are saying they won’t get the vaccine. All of this means “getting back to normal” will no doubt take a lot longer. I sure hope I’m wrong!

i agree Feathers. We never saw Covid coming... so how can we know anythng for certain now? I hope we all continue to wear masks and remain vigilant so we can make it through this more quickly.

As for the efficacy of the vaccinations.... we just have to wait and see. Given the varients popping up of Covid... who can know anything for sure.

I believe Covid will become “just another disease” before too long. Things are relaxing here, the “No mask, No entry“ signs are coming off the doors, and our rates keep going down.

I remember somebody questioning my Mennonite community’s resistance (they have no phones, no electricity, no running water). How many cases did they have? Zero.

I have seriously question the efficacy of a mask in the general population, when we could not even keep the virus from sequestered populations. It just does not make any sense to me. The CDCdid a study (mainstream science, since I seem to be disagreeable to that) that the states WITH mask mandates had less than 2% (overall) death cases and disease case rates than those without.

I have completely weaned myself off of ANY news outlets. I don’t even trust the weather anymore. I watch the weather patterns on the internet and decide for myself.

“I remember somebody questioning my Mennonite community’s resistance (they have no phones, no electricity, no running water). How many cases did they have? Zero.”

Interesting. Where is your Mennonite Community? I know that the Amish communities in Lancaster County have lost members due to Covid. Because the Amish live such private lives the actual numbers of those ill or deceased is hard to know.

FWIW, this is a recent article from a medical journal summarizing mask efficacy.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536

IMHO they are such a minor inconvenience there is no reason *not* to wear them. I bought two new cute ones at Terrain.

And there have been more studies showing different ways that masks help protect against viral infection. It's not just by blocking the virus - something that many masks only do fairly well. It turns out that by humidifying the air as you breathe, masks help the first line of immune system defense do its job.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210216/Humidity-created-inside-facemasks-may-help-combat-COVID-19-study-finds.aspx

I think the vaccination rates may be lagging the rate at which people are relaxing behaviors, at least in some areas. But as long as the most vulnerable get vaccinated and maintain good practices, and mutations and variants don't dramatically change the course, the hospitalization and death rate won't spike too much. We may see some strong regional variation as well. The improving weather will also help.

Here's a nice graphically representation of the current status of the country (scroll down to see the US map): Link

Covid is a deadly disease and can become chronic. I think about my young neighbor who is now a long hauler. I have been wearing a mask from the beginning and honestly am happy to. I have had zero colds and my respiratory symptoms have lessened. I may continue to wear a mask during pollen season and in high-density public places such as the subway after this is contained.

In my opinion, I don't believe we will go back to "normal" for some time. We still do not have good therapeutics, more and more children are beginning to show long-hauler syndrome, and varients are taking over. We live in a global society and until the rest of the world is vaccinated "normal" will not occur. In the meantime, we can continue to find ways to interact with others, enjoy the small pleasures and support each other.