In Wisc. Poll, Unrest Concerns Don't Translate Into Surge for Trump

dublinbay z6 (KS)

Look at the state polls--is the repeated advice this election season. OK--so here is a Wisconsin poll by the NYTimes/Sienna College, and from one of those key "swing" states also. And the news is not good for Trump.


"The key battleground of Wisconsin . . . is now awash in deep concern about violent crime, riots and protests — but voters aren’t favoring Trump on those issues even though he is pushing them hard, according to new polling from The New York Times and Siena College.

[. . .]

Yet so far, Trump has failed in his attempt to capitalize politically on his inflammatory remarks about the unrest in Kenosha, Wisconsin. . . .

Nearly 1 in 5 Wisconsinites who said that riots in U.S. cities were a bigger problem than racism in the criminal justice system planned to vote for Joe Biden — even though it is Trump who is vowing a severe federal crackdown on violent outbursts.

Scott Lacko, a 55-year-old from the northern Wisconsin community of Eagle River, backed Trump in 2016 but will be voting for Biden this fall. The riots concern him deeply; . . . But he said that Trump’s law-and-order push had not won him over.

The president, Lacko said, cannot be trusted to act in anyone’s interest but his own. He reflected a majority of Wisconsin voters in seeing Biden as a unifier of the country: 52% said they trusted him more to bring people together, compared with 39% for Trump.

“Trump certainly tries to take advantage of the situation and muddy the water,” he said. “I may not have agreed with some of the things Biden said, but at least he’s trying to bring people together and find some way through it.”

[. . .]

In Wisconsin’s cities, enthusiasm is high. The poll found 81% of voters in the cities said they were “almost certain” to vote, compared with 69% of suburban voters and 68% of rural voters. These city voters are also far more likely to favor Biden over Trump to maintain law and order. The intensity gap, if it is maintained through Election Day, is likely to benefit Biden.

[. . .]

Justin Lang, a 38-year-old software developer in Verona, just outside Madison, said he had already ordered his absentee ballot to vote by mail for Biden.

“One hundred percent,” he said, when asked how certain he was that he would vote. “I don’t know that everyone is gung ho about Joe Biden in particular, but there’s a shared feeling across the board that Trumpism is a big problem. And that we need to get in there and vote to repudiate that.”

[. . .]

In Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties, the state’s longtime conservative suburban heartland that adjoins Milwaukee to the west and north, Republican margins have slipped during the Trump era from where they were when George W. Bush and Mitt Romney were on presidential ballots. The Times poll found that in those three counties, Trump was leading Biden, 54% to 37% — an erosion of support from 2012, when Romney won 67% of the three counties’ vote, and even from 2016, when Trump took 62% of the vote in the three counties.

[. . .]

The president retains a devoted following in rural Wisconsin, parts of which were longtime Democratic strongholds that swung hard to his campaign in 2016. Trump leads Biden, 51% to 37%, among rural voters.

[. . .]

Demographically, Wisconsin is akin to Ohio and Missouri — whiter, older and less educated than the national average, with a statewide electorate that has trended toward Republicans in the past decade even as major cities in those states have become more Democratic. Wisconsin retains a heavy concentration of Black voters, living mostly in Milwaukee and in the old Lake Michigan manufacturing hubs of Racine and Kenosha. Black respondents in the poll were nearly unanimous in their support of Biden.

Statewide, support for Black Lives Matter tracks with Biden’s voters: 49% have a favorable view of the movement, while 43% have an unfavorable opinion."


I hope I'm not getting overly optimistic, but I do find this info about a key swing state encouraging. I never did quite trust the polls back in 2016 when Hillary was the predicted winner, but this year's polls "feel" more reliable. At least, I certainly hope so--for America's sake!


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vgkg Z-7 Va(Z-7)

People are waking up to the reality that trump's lies are not harmless, they are just self serving and can be very deadly.

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That is good news. Hopefully people realize what is at stake for this country and the world, and will vote accordingly.

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Jonnygun(zone 7)

Wow. Crappy poll

35% Dem

26% Repub

33% Independent

Wonder how many people they had to call to get that split...

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Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 and he probably has a shot at repeating in those States. I just don't see anyone who has changed their mind outside of a few educated thoughtful Republicans like George Will and those from the Lincoln Project. . Instead, Reeps have dug in, especially those who are seemingly mesmerized by the divisive, arrogant, vindictive, con man.

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Lars(Z11a (coastal L.A.) and Z9a (desert))

While I am normally pessimistic (especially about the intelligence of voters), I do think that Biden will win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020. I also expect Biden to win in Arizona and probably Nevada, but Florida and Ohio are still toss-ups. North Carolina could go either way, but I'm not expecting much there.

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