Herd Immunity. Baaa.

haydayhayday



An interesting article in the NYTimes today. Basically saying that Herd Immunity could, according to people who ponder such things, be much lower that what was initially thrown out to the public.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html


What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought?


Hay

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haydayhayday

You can read the article (and any of the Coronavirus news at the New York Times simply by giving them your email. You can opt out of all the spam you'll get from them by registering. Easy.

Hay

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haydayhayday

I've been thinking and following the concept of Herd Immunity.

Another thing, too, is that there's a whole lot more cases than the numbers we usually see. Numbers we usually see are "confirmed cases", but the actual number might very well be perhaps 7 or 10 times that number according to some of the expert epidemiologists and the actual tests for antibodies that have been done.

Hay

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haydayhayday

Even without herd immunity, as more and more people get infected and if there's some lasting antibody resistance that comes from being infected....which seems to be the latest thinking.... one's chances of getting the virus from venturing out will steadily go down.

Hay

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HamiltonGardener

That’s not the latest thinking , hay. That’s what they have been saying from the start. That’s how your immune system works.

That when you get it, the resulting sickness will be milder. The body remembers the virus and can attack quicker tre next time.

Either getting the virus or getting the vaccine, either way, but the vaccine has less risk.

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haydayhayday

The longer I can hole up, the better the odds for me, I figure.


I'm beginning to think that kids going back to school might very well create a big resurgence in the general population when the kids, who we know are always picking up some virus at school and then bringing it back home, will be the catalyst for the surge.

Hay


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haydayhayday

HG:

"That’s not the latest thinking , hay. That’s what they have been saying from the start. That’s how your immune system works."


This is what I had in mind when I said that.

Two day old news. The latest thinking:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/world/coronavirus-covid-19.html


Even mild Covid-19 cases confer ‘durable immunity,’ new studies find.

Hay



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haydayhayday

HG:

"...but the vaccine has less risk."

Theoretically.

One problem:

So far there's no vaccine.

Hay

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HamiltonGardener

So far there's no vaccine.


So go find some child to cough in your face. I hear they are all swimming with COVID. Should give you a half decent dose to prime your immune system.

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elvis

Great minds, Hay. I was going to start a thread on this. Here's the short article:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html


August 17, 2020

Is herd immunity ahead of schedule?

Today, we’re turning this section over to our colleague Apoorva Mandavilli, who has been covering the pandemic for The Times’s Science desk.

The pandemic will end only when enough people are protected against the coronavirus, whether by a vaccine or by already having been infected. Reaching this threshold, known as herd immunity, doesn’t mean the virus will disappear. But with fewer hosts to infect, it will make its way through a community much more slowly.

In the early days of the crisis, scientists estimated that perhaps 70 percent of the population would need to be immune in this way to be free from large outbreaks. But over the past few weeks, more than a dozen scientists told me they now felt comfortable saying that herd immunity probably lies from 45 percent to 50 percent.

If they’re right, then we may be a lot closer to turning back this virus than we initially thought.

It may also mean that pockets of New York City, London, Mumbai and other cities may already have reached the threshold, and may be spared a devastating second wave.

The initial calculations into herd immunity assumed that everyone in a community was equally susceptible to the virus and mixed randomly with everyone else.

The new estimates are the product of more sophisticated statistical modeling. When scientists factor in variations in density, demographics and socialization patterns, the estimated threshold for herd immunity falls.

In some clinics in hard-hit Brooklyn neighborhoods, up to 80 percent of people who were tested at the beginning of the summer had antibodies for the virus. Over the past eight weeks, fewer than 1 percent of people tested at those same neighborhood clinics have had the virus.

Likewise in Mumbai, a randomized household survey found that about 57 percent of people who live in the poorest areas and share toilets had antibodies, compared with just 11 percent elsewhere in the city.

It’s too early to say with certainty that those communities have reached herd immunity. We don’t know, for example, how long someone who was infected stays protected from the coronavirus. But the data suggests that the virus may move more slowly in those areas the next time around.

For more on herd immunity, read Apoorva’s latest article.



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haydayhayday

HG:

"So go find some child to cough in your face. I hear they are all swimming with COVID. Should give you a half decent dose to prime your immune system."

Or kill me.

I'm getting quite fond of my homemade bread.

Hay

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heri_cles

The new salivadirect test might help us even before a vaccine.

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haydayhayday


I know that Cuomo likes to take credit for "flattening the curve", but I find that hard to imagine. I could be wrong.

I've wondered if it was because of the extra precautions we're taking....especially wearing masks .... or whether it's more a matter of the virus just going its natural way. More likely both, but which is more important?

Hay

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haydayhayday

I've always been wondering if "flattening the curve" might just not do much more than "prolong the agony".

I understand all about "flattening the curve" so that we don't inundate the health system. About how maybe we can "flatten the curve" until there's a vaccine.

But, there's a price to pay for that. When does the price outweigh the benefit?

Hay

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Stan Areted

I've always been wondering if "flattening the curve" might just not do much more than "prolong the agony".


That's right, Hay.

I'm thinking about April 30 is when the price started to outweight the benefit.

We have only prolonged the inevitable and ruined the economy and livelihood of others, and more suicides, more uneducated children, more abuse of adults and children, trillions of dollars the government didn't need to spend, hysteria, and control of individuals.

Yep, pretty price to pay for a virus with such a low death rate.

The media and the left were waiting for this.

The battle may almost be won but the war hasn't even started.

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HamiltonGardener

Hay,

The options don’t need to be binary. Either economy or death.

The key that most countries have found, is to find a way to flatten the death curve... while allowing the majority of the economy to function.

The virus can still circulate slowly in the healthy population while a protective ring is placed around the vulnerable, like the sick and elderly, the immune compromised.

There are a number of countries where the death rate has been pulled under control, albeit after some very difficult lessons, and their economies have nearly been opened back up and people are out in the society again.


So, you can have it all. It doesn’t have to be either/or.



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heri_cles

Yep, pretty price to pay for a virus with such a low death rate.

Death rate among children or seniors?

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haydayhayday

Get those kids back to school!!

Hay

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Ann

Great thread. I saw this article today and read it (I must not be up to my NYT limit). I'm a fan of the herd immunity concept and have been for some time now. I do wear masks but I'm living my life as normally as possible.

By the way, the U.S. has had two days of very reduced numbers of new cases compared to even a week ago. Herd immunity?

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Ann

I'm a grandparent for herd immunity and a grandparent who very much thinks children need to get back to school! Like the guy with the sign, I'll wear a mask because I'm a grandmother (pretty old) and I'm not a foolish one IMO.

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HamiltonGardener

Ann,

Maybe some hard hit areas, but not the USA overall.

Not yet.

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haydayhayday

HG:

"The virus can still circulate slowly in the healthy population while a protective ring is placed around the vulnerable, like the sick and elderly, the immune compromised."

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


"The current low end estimates of COVID-19’s mortality rate given by the World Health Organization is 0.6 percent,"

Us oldsters can stay home and the number will drop significantly.

Let's git'er done!!
Hay


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haydayhayday



Hay

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HamiltonGardener

I'm a grandparent for herd immunity


I won’t make a call on getting kids back. Not my place at the moment because my son is grown and I have no grandchildren yet.

However, I am willing to contribute to herd immunity, either by getting a vaccine or getting sick. I’m of the healthy low risk majority.

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HamiltonGardener

Hay,

but what is the death rate?

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Kathy

There is no definitive information as yet on what levels of antibodies are needed for immunity or how long that protection might last. “I think we’re getting closer and closer to that knowledge,” Dr. Iwasaki said.

They suggest in the meantime we act as if we are at risk.



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haydayhayday

HG:

"...but what is the death rate?"

I posted it

"The current low end estimates of COVID-19’s mortality rate given by the World Health Organization is 0.6 percent,"

(Everyone, please be aware: I'm not advocating much of what I'm saying. Just making debate points!)

Hay

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HamiltonGardener

Ah, Hay, I mean this:


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haydayhayday

Kathy, where are you getting your quote?

"There is no definitive information as yet on what levels of antibodies are needed for immunity or how long that protection might last. “I think we’re getting closer and closer to that knowledge,” Dr. Iwasaki said."

Old news?

Hay


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HamiltonGardener

As opposed to these:



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haydayhayday

Ah, Hay, I mean this:

But, that "death rate"?

Not sure what it means in this conversation.

My "death rate" and your "death rate" are not the same.

Deaths per day is not the same as deaths per infection. And both depend heavily on the population.

Hay

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HamiltonGardener

But, that "death rate"?

Not sure what it means in this conversation.

Hay,

Well, in the context of what I said earlier...


The options don’t need to be binary. Either economy or death.

The key that most countries have found, is to find a way to flatten the death curve... while allowing the majority of the economy to function.

The virus can still circulate slowly in the healthy population while a protective ring is placed around the vulnerable, like the sick and elderly, the immune compromised.

There are a number of countries where the death rate has been pulled under control, albeit after some very difficult lessons, and their economies have nearly been opened back up and people are out in the society again.


So, you can have it all. It doesn’t have to be either/or.

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haydayhayday

I don't think we disagree, HG.

Just talking about two different aspects.

I agree with your basic statement: Keep the vulnerable protected and fewer people will die.

Hay

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carolb_w_fl_coastal_9b(zone 9/10)

Schools haven't opened up everywhere yet - just wait.

The research shows that the numbers may be lower than originally thought, but that does not mean everybody's safe now.

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haydayhayday

The key that most countries have found, is to find a way to flatten the death curve... while allowing the majority of the economy to function.

But, that's a hard thing to juggle, I think we're finding out. I don't know that most countries have found that "key".


Hay

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haydayhayday

carol:

"The research shows that the numbers may be lower than originally thought, but that does not mean everybody's safe now."

Has anyone suggested that everybody's safe now?

Hay

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HamiltonGardener

And both depend heavily on the population.


Current average deaths per day (7 day average)


America: 1068

Canada: 5

United Kingdom: 10

Italy: 5

Germany: 4

Portugal: 3

Sweden: 1


I think even accounting for population...

ETA:

But, that's a hard thing to juggle, I think we're finding out. I don't know that most countries have found that "key".

Sorry, I should have said most developed Western countries.

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Kathy

Hay, do we have definitive information? The article you posted thinks but it’s not definitive. From what I have read we don’t even have a reliable anti-body test.

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haydayhayday

By population, I meant whether we're talking old people or young people when I talked about MY "death rate".

ETA: And even your meaning of "death rate"

We can't bounce back and forth with different meanings!

Hay

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HamiltonGardener

From what I have read we don’t even have a reliable anti-body test.


Kathy,

We have reliable antibody tests, but not the quick ones.

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haydayhayday

"Hay, do we have definitive information? The article you posted thinks but it’s not definitive. From what I have read we don’t even have a reliable anti-body test."

I'm talking about the article I posted. The latest "thinking".

At one time, the "thinking" was all over the place. The "thinking" has moved on. Mostly getting better, you'd "think".

And here we are.

Hay

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HamiltonGardener

By population, I meant whether we're talking old people or young people when I talked about MY "death rate".


Ah, right. My misunderstanding. Death rates for a more...robust and experienced... age group are not the same. That is what I am trying to get across, yes.


It’s a mistake to strategize this virus as if we (humanity) are one homogeneous group.


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Kathy

True Hay, we are learning. I read an article where it told how many vaccines were possible and the stages. Sorry I don’t have sources after the fact. In the meantime I plan to keep on being defensive

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haydayhayday

"I plan to keep on being defensive"

I basically have not left my house since March 17.

(Looked at the calendar just as I posted that....5 months to the day!)

Time to celebrate. Go get one of my 5 month old beers!

I had some 5 month old cabbage for lunch!

I've still got lemons that are just as good as they were 5 months ago!

I'm a good hunker-downer!

Love it.

Hay

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Kathy

HG

Sharp.com has an article——The truth about Covid Testing


Here, Dr. Bakhtar answers questions about antibody tests and explains what information they can — and cannot — provide:

What do antibody test results mean?
First, it’s important to understand that COVID-19 antibody tests do not screen for active infection, so they cannot be used to diagnose a current illness. Furthermore, results are affected by the commonality of a disease within a chosen population. If a disease is common, the test results will be more reliable. However, the fewer people who have a disease such as COVID-19 in a community, the more likely there will be a high rate of false positives — a person is negative, but tests positive — and false negatives — a person is positive, but tests negative.

And so, while the COVID-19 antibody tests now being used have a high reliability rating, they can still provide inaccurate results — especially false positives — due to the low percentage of people in the population who have COVID-19, which is currently estimated to be less than 2% in San Diego County. In addition, recent data shows that COVID antibodies don't always last in people’s bodies. Some who test positive on an antibody test may later test negative.

  • Negative test result
    If you receive a negative result on your COVID-19 antibody test, you can feel fairly confident that your result is correct and you have not had and recovered from COVID-19. However, it’s important to remember that you could have recently been exposed to the virus and have an active infection, which will not be detected by an antibody test.

  • Positive test result
    If you receive a positive result, the test has detected the presence of antibodies, which develop one to three weeks after an infection. However, due to testing inaccuracies, there is a chance that you have received a false-positive test result and have not ever been infected. You cannot safely assume that you have had COVID-19.


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Kathy

Hay, have you not left your house in 5 months?

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Ann

"However, I am willing to contribute to herd immunity, either by getting a vaccine or getting sick. I’m of the healthy low risk majority."

Me too. I'm kind of old (as one grows older, the age looked at as "old" keeps getting older, lol) but I'm very healthy and have no underlying conditions whatsoever, so I'm also willing to get a vaccine and not at all nervous about getting sick.

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haydayhayday

Kathy, your link doesn't go to a story, but I think I found the aricle.

July 2, 2020

In this fast changing world of knowledge about the virus and testing and such, that's ancient history.

Hay

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haydayhayday

Kathy:

"Hay, have you not left your house in 5 months?"

Basically, I said.

I've had orders shipped to me. Leave the package out for a week or so before I touch it. Touch it with gloves.

I've not been inside a store since March 17.

I could go on, but basically I've not had any contact to speak of with the outside world.

I'm a good hunker-downer.

Hay

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HamiltonGardener

Kathy,

There are a number of antibody tests currently being used which are 96 to 98 percent accurate. That is absolutely considered reliable.

False positives are possible because of cross-reactivity and the more accurate tests have gotten very sensitive to that. It’s possible the Sharp health centers need to use a different test.

And no, antibody tests are not to show an active infection. A PCR test will show that.


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HamiltonGardener

Hay,

if you don’t mind me asking, do you have some other comorbidities?

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haydayhayday

https://www.sharp.com/health-news/the-truth-about-antibody-testing.cfm

Looks to be Kathy's article.

July 2, 2020

Hay

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haydayhayday

"if you don’t mind me asking, do you have some other comorbidities?"

I'm an oldster.

A healthy, fit oldster, but still an oldster.

And that, in itself, is enough of a comorbidity for me.

I also enjoy the challenge and am much more comfortable being alone and hunkered down.

Even the young healthy ones die. Even the young healthy ones seem to end up with sometimes long term ill health effects.

I like my homemade bread!

You can teach an old dog new tricks!

Every single person I know. Every single person I know is way, way more risk taking with this disease than I am.

I'm the lone exception.

Hay


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bob_cville

If you are in favor of herd immunity, go out and intentionally allow yourself to be infected, and then quarantine yourself at home for 2 weeks so you don't infect others who don't want to be seriously ill. Perhaps contact like minded friends so they too can intentionally allow themselves to be infected, and quarantine at their homes. And then if you get through it, come back and share whatever wisdom you gained from your experience.

If not stop ranting on and suggesting herd immunity for others.

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haydayhayday

bob_cville:

"If you are in favor of herd immunity, go out and intentionally allow yourself to be infected, and then quarantine yourself at home for 2 weeks so you don't infect others who don't want to be seriously ill. Perhaps contact like minded friends so they too can intentionally allow themselves to be infected, and quarantine at theirs homes. And then if you get through it, come back and share whatever wisdom you gained from your experience.

If not stop ranting on and suggesting herd immunity for others."


I'll think about it.

Done.

Thanks for your contribution.

Hay

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maifleur03

Just to toss something out there. There are between 20-30% of the people who have had the virus that are left with long term health defects. Doctors are finding that even some of those that were considered asymptomatic actually have damage to their bodies especially their heart. With people looking at living vs dying they are not thinking about the quality of life of those living. The lucky ones may have no after affects but it may take years perhaps even decades for after affects to show up.

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haydayhayday

maifleur:


"Just to toss something out there. There are between 20-30% of the people who have had the virus that are left with long term health defects. Doctors are finding that even some of those that were considered asymptomatic actually have damage to their bodies especially their heart. With people looking at living vs dying they are not thinking about the quality of life of those living. The lucky ones may have no after affects but it may take years perhaps even decades for after affects to show up."

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Yep. Just like I said:

"Even the young healthy ones die. Even the young healthy ones seem to end up with sometimes long term ill health effects."

I've had a conversation with someone who thinks that he and his wife and kids got it. His big point was that it's been months since he got it and he still is suffering from the effects. Young man.

We're still learning.


Hay


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heri_cles

We have to have a unified strategy to slow the spread of the virus or flatten the curve.

Herd immunity is not a useful strategy to slow the spread of this virus. Herd Immunity is the desired outcome of various strategies that can lead to immunity.

The dangers of embracing herd immunity as a short -term strategy include taxing our first responders, local hospitals and IC units, and sacrificing thousands of people to this awful disease while others suffer long term repercussions from that infection. There is no need to do that.

Everyone should know what needs to be done in the short term and in the long term. - Keep yourself and those you come in proximity to as safe as possible by wearing a mask and social distancing. Wash hands and clean surfaces.

Once a rapid test is available to the masses at a reasonable cost (and it appears that may be weeks away) we can start to isolate or quarantine those infected before they spread it. That will be a game changer.

That will get us to proven vaccines (hopefully in 2021) without the unnecessary death and suffering that has resulted from the nonchalant, ideological, politicized treatment of a health crisis.


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jmm1837

"Once a rapid test is available to the masses at a reasonable cost (and it appears that may be weeks away) we can start to isolate or quarantine those infected before they spread it."


Enforcing isolation and quarantines, as both Aus and NZ have found, is an expensive and resource-intensive business. I get the strong impression that some governors will be reluctant to force people into quarantine, and a lot of people who have tested positive will resist it. And I suspect the police have bigger fish to fry than making sure quarantined cases stay put.

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heri_cles

You don't need to force isolation or pay for it.

Most reasonable people who test positive and know they only have to isolate for a short time will do it.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-coronavirus-saliva-based-covid-19-test-could-be-a-game-changer/ar-BB1811Aj?li=BBnb7Kz

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heri_cles

Saliva testing with rapid test results is working right for the most part in the NBA and in MLB.

Players and staff that test positive get quarantined and return after they no longer test positive. Thankfully for fans like myself, I can watch baseball on TV. I thought this would never work but so far, so good.


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jmm1837

"Most reasonable people who test positive and know they only have to isolate for a short time will do it."

Actually, they won't. When we had our little spike here in Vic a few weeks ago, one quarter of the people who had been ordered not to leave their homes for 10 days weren't there when the health people came to check. Some of them were at work. The government brought in the army to help out with door knocks, and raised the fines to eye watering levels. That finally got compliance up. And that's in Aus, where the population seems to be more willing to go along with public health advice than is apparently the case in the US.

There have been stories in both Aus and NZ of returning travellers in quarantine hotels sneaking/breaking out as well. You cannot just impose quarantine orders and expect them to be obeyed. You need monitoring, and that takes resources.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-31/one-in-four-not-home-covid19-positive-adf-door-knock/12511682

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heri_cles

I don't know what type of Covid tests were given in Australia, how reliable they were, how much the tests cost, how difficult and time-consuming it was to get a test, how long it took to get results back from the labs, etc.,,, but I suspect there were issues.For example, how did they know if someone was still testing positive? Drag them in to the Police station and force them to be re-tested?

The new rapid saliva testing that I linked to is entirely different than
previous Covid-19 tests. This new test is self-administered, economical, non-invasive
and provides quick test results. That means that you can retest and
know just as quickly that you no longer test positive, There is no need
for draconian measures like forced quarantine with that system.


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jmm1837

I think you missed my point. We have people who have actually tested positive, or have been ordered to self isolate pending test results, and simply ignore the health orders. I'm not talking about follow up tests, I'm talking about initial tests that show positive for Covid, and people ignoring them. There is a significant percentage of the population that will not do the right thing. I see no reason to believe that percentage will be lower in the US. So how do you propose to manage that, if not with "draconian" measures? That is, after all, what quarantine is.


By the way, tests here are free, and no one checks anyone's immigration status. And while the mainstay is still nasal swabs, they have been doing saliva tests for weeks in Vic. These are lab tested and they are still less reliable than the nasal swabs. Home testing is a bridge too far to be a public health measure at this point, imho.


Anyway, the time for turnaround isn't the problem: non compliance with the results is the problem. Why do you think Americans will be more compliant than Australians or NZers if they get a positive result? Nothing I've seen or read suggests that's likely to be the case.


So that leaves you with the management issue. If you ignore that you will be doing a Trump and simply hoping for the best despite experience to the contrary.



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HamiltonGardener

I think there will always be a portion of the population which considers themselves to be above quarantine if they are found to be sick. The same people drive loud, obnoxious vehicles or park in “no parking” zones or handicap parking.

But the strategy is to use various measures to keep rates low until a vaccine is found...especially among the vulnerable population. Then we try to convince as many people as possible to take the vaccine.

Herd immunity is not an evil thing. Russian bots spend way too much time convincing internet dwellers that it is. And feeding them fear, to which some are more vulnerable than others.

And these conspiracy theories that Russian bots put out, like anti-vax and anti-mask. Ugh. There are people with legitimate breathing problems who can’t wear masks, and they are being overshadowed by people who pretend they have medical issues to further their anti-mask, anti-vax “freedom” agenda.

Dont lie about it. Just be honest that you have a moral outrage at wearing masks. But don’t make up fake medical problems because it undermines those who have legit medical issues.

A two week quarantine if you are sick is reasonable.

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althea_gw

This topic is interesting. I hope Mike Osterholm discusses it on his upcoming podcast. He isn't very fond of modeling as a meaningful route to predict much of anything except the likelihood of more modeling.

I have also read an article by an Indian researcher who suggests that a portion of the population may be resistant to covid-19. I'll take a look for that later.

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haydayhayday

Actually, this notion of herd immunity is not at all new.


I've bookmarked several prominent, good epidemiologists and will sometimes go through them to see what the latest thinking is from the real experts....as opposed to the ones on this forum....

I'm not going to take the time to find it, but several weeks ago, this very point about a possibly lower herd immunity was made by one of those real experts. I'm sure I commented about it before. I think Osterholm may have been in that group or would be.

The thing that sorta makes it new is that the concept of a reduced herd immunity combined with the newest thinking about "durable", long lasting immunity once you do get infected come together to make it all the more hopeful.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/world/coronavirus-covid-19.html

And:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html

Read them both together. At least glance at them both together.

Hay




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haydayhayday

jmm:

"There is a significant percentage of the population that will not do the right thing. I see no reason to believe that percentage will be lower in the US. So how do you propose to manage that, if not with "draconian" measures? "

That's an important point I've always kept in my mind.

China, apparently, because they're much closer to a totalitarian state than most of us would feel comfortable living in, has an advantage in times like this. They can lay down the law and, by force if necessary, effectively quarantine an entire area and keep it that way until the virus is more under control.

It's like a war. In a war, we need that kind of authoritarian control. In normal life it's abhorrent to most of us.

Hay

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haydayhayday

And some societies like Japan and a lot of the Asian countries appear to me to be much more willing to be compliant than us Wild West Americans.

In some things, it pays to be a Wild West type. In some things it pays to be the Compliant Culture.

Hay

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althea_gw

This is the article about research in India concerning possible resistance. Of course, you can't compare India's population to the West in general since they have such a large percentage of vegetarians and eat a lot of turmeric via curry, the reason I think they have a relatively low death rate.

https://www.indiaspend.com/80-90-family-members-of-covid-19-patients-do-not-get-infected/

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haydayhayday

There is lots of research on this topic, Althea.

https://www.google.com/search?q=The+secondary+attack+ratio+(SAR)+for+a+household+coroonavirus&rlz=1C1PRFI_enUS855US855&oq=The+secondary+attack+ratio+(SAR)+for+a+household+coroonavirus&aqs=chrome..69i57.14158j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

I quickly grabbed this one and scanned it just as quickly.

Here is Lancet:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30471-0/fulltext#:~:text=The%20overall%20data%2Dbased%20secondary,the%20basis%20of%20close%20relatives.:


"The overall data-based secondary attack rates were 13·2% (95% CI 10·9–15·7) among household contacts and 2·4% (1·6–3·3) among non-household contacts, when household was defined on the basis of close relatives."


We got a lot of things about this virus that we don't understand

Hay




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heri_cles

I'm talking about initial tests that show positive for Covid, and people ignoring them.

They have reason to question them and even to ignore them because:

a.) they know that some of the tests have been showing false positives and false negatives

b.) it takes several days after some of these tests are administered to get results back from the lab. In some cases people are already beyond the stage where they can spread the virus so why should they quarantine?

IF a more reliable, economical, and broadly available covid test can provide quick results it could be a game changer. It would simplify and expedite contact tracing and cut down on the days that infected people are out spreading the virus.

If a vaccine is not available pretty soon to stop this virus we have to act sensibly to control its spread, not encourage its spread by bull crap like herd immunity. Herd immunity cannot be an option until we have a vaccine, not one day sooner. The vaccine(s) will make herd immunity feasible (those infected with covid who develop antibodies + those vaccinated = herd immunity) . The promotion of herd immunity w/o vaccine is provocative, unrealistic, cruel, and asinine.

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HamiltonGardener

They have reason to question them and even to ignore them because:

a.) they know that some of the tests have been showing false positives and false negatives

b.) it takes several days after some of these tests are administered to get results back from the lab. In some cases people are already beyond the stage where they can spread the virus so why should they quarantine?


I don’t think they have reason to question or ignore the tests


a) A properly administered test is very reliable. At first, not as much, but now they are fine.


b) You can quarantine for a day or two while you wait for results. And if positive, you quarantine until you test negative. You shouldn’t just ignore it because you think you are beyond the stage of spreading it.


Look, you don’t need to be paralyzed with fear and the world is not coming to an end, but at the same time, if you test positive for the virus, there is no “good reason” to ignore quarantine. You stay isolated until the doctor clears you.

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maifleur03

From what I am reading some doctors are simply telling a person to isolate for 10 days then go about their lives. No follow up to see if there is any heart or lung damage just a pat on the head and "you will be fine".

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jmm1837

Heri - the nasal tests are significantly more accurate than the saliva tests, or at least the one's being done in Aus. And the problem is much more with false negatives than positives. Being told to stay home for a day or two to await results is not a huge imposition, and being told to stay home for 10 days because you actually tested positive is common sense. And still, people ignore the instructions. Faster testing isn't going to change that.

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jmm1837

Maifleur- remember, the point of the quarantine is to stop you from spreading the disease . That is the priority for Public Health officials and that is their focus. It's up to your personal GP to assess whether you need follow up tests. I'm assuming that if you have a mild case it probably isn't necessary, or at least not a top priority if medical resources are stretched.

By the way, as an aside, we're in the middle of flu season here and one of the nightmare scenarios was that the health system would be overwhelmed by the combination of Covid and flu cases. In fact, with our current lockdown and mandatory masks, flu numbers here in Victoria are down 75%.

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Kathy

This is curious to me. A friend observed this. Two elderly people were going to enter a private thrift store But when their temp was taken they both had temps between 100 and 102.2. Because elderly manned the store they were not allowed to enter. I am surprised because surely they must have been asymptomatic other than the temp, otherwise would they have been out shopping?

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heri_cles

"Most people with coronavirus who have symptoms will no longer be contagious by 10 days after symptoms resolve. People who test positive for the virus but never develop symptoms over the following 10 days after testing are probably no longer contagious ."

So if people are re-tested somewhere in between the 0-10 day window, and it takes 3 days to get lab tests back on a re-test, many will conclude that because they never had symptoms, they probably do not need to quarantine any longer or get another test.

That is why more economical testing with quicker lab results is critical. In short, there is a relatively short time window where people are contagious.


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jmm1837

Fast testing is critical, but if the labs get backed up, the time lag still occurs. And the problem still remains of making sure people who should be in quarantine actually stay there.

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HamiltonGardener

Kathy,

keep in mind that just because they had a temperature doesn’t mean they have COVID.

Heck, I get ear infections and sinus infections multiple times a year and always run a temperature.



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Kathy

Can you tell when you are run in a temp? Gees, it’s been a long time since I had a temp.

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HamiltonGardener

I can never tell if I’m running a temperature. If my ear hurts, I use the thermometer.

ETA: if it’s my sinuses, I can’t tell the difference between sinus pressure from the weather and sinus pressure from infection. I get sinus headaches sometimes during the year. My sinus infections sometimes go untreated for that reason for longer than they should.

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althea_gw

Hay, Mike Osterholm is awfully skeptical of the NYTimes reported study. He say something like, 'the researchers are disconnected from reality', and gives several examples of real life populations that far exceeded 20%. The discussion of this begins at @ 51 minutes (-9:25).

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars/episode-20

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haydayhayday

Thanks, Althea.

I like hearing anything he has to say.

I just now listened to just the six minutes from 6 til 12.

I'll listen to it all later.

Good professional information, as always.

At the end of that segment, he talks about schools and basically how we're going to be in bigger trouble pretty soon with all the kids picking it up and bringing it back home. And BOOM!

That's the picture he is painting. I've painted the same picture.

Here's a couple of charts to illustrate the dates and points he discusses.


Starting from zero at a fast rate is nothing like starting at 40,000 at a fast rate.

I still will need to finish hearing it, but he says that roughly 8-10 percent of the population has had it and sticks with his estimation that it will take 50-70 percent of the population to reach herd immunity.

4 more people at a minimum need to catch it for every 1 that has had it now.

Hay

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Kathy

Surprised to hear the flu vaccines wanes so he doesn’t get it before Oct, typically early Nov.

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heri_cles

If they could make an economical and reliable home test that could detect this virus, we could defeat this virus given the relatively short window that those who get infected remain contagious.

That would also help schools to open and remain open. Frequent testing (every other day) has made it possible for major league baseball to proceed, but for a few snags (like players going out on the town between games).

A huge problem now is that we don't know who has it or even if we have it. I bet several people here haven't even been tested once this year.


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maifleur03

Then there are people like myself whose normal temperature is below 98 at 97.1. By the time my temperature reaches 98.6 it is over 100. Most of the time I can not tell if I have a problem until mine reaches 100. Last year there were several reports that the standard 98.6 should be changed.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/forget-98-6-humans-now-have-lower-body-temperature-on-average-heres-why

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foodonastump

I bet several people here haven't even been tested once this year.


Is it the norm to have been tested? Why would I, unless either symptomatic or as a prerequisite for a certain event? (Like my colonoscopy next month.)

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HamiltonGardener

FOAS,

Paranoia. I have a co-worker who is a hypochondriac and looks up every speculative Covid article on possible symptoms.

Tired? You must have Covid.

Headache? You must have Covid.

Fever? You must have Covid.

Did you sneeze? You must have Covid.

It is like she has forgotten that humans have suffered from all of these minor things since...forever.

She has been in for a couple of tests.

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haydayhayday

FOAS:


"Is it the norm to have been tested? Why would I, unless either symptomatic or as a prerequisite for a certain event? (Like my colonoscopy next month.)"

Funny.

I basically haven't left my house since this pandemic got started. I should risk my life to venture out and go see if I have Covid?

Funny.

Worldometers says about 75 million tests have been performed. The population of the USA is about 330 million.

Lots of people haven't been tested.

Hay


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foodonastump

Yeah I wouldn’t have thought so. I’d change the sentence to I bet most people here haven't even been tested once this year.

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chisue

DH and I routinely get (Senior dose) flu shots just before Halloween, to last through February. We've had pneumonia vaccine as well.

'Common sense' is uncommon. People refuse to isolate when ill-- sometimes cannot afford it. Even if Trump modeled masking, some Americans wouldn't do it.

Osterholm doesn't believe the US can achieve herd immunity absent a vaccine, and I trust his judgement. Like Hay, *he* has self-isolated from the start of this.

DH and I have largely obeyed that excellent Australian sign: "Go Home and Stay There!" Since March we have seen our DS and family three times, on our porch and masked. They are remote teaching (DIL) and remote learning (Kids 9 and 15).

HOWEVER, a big swath of the population doesn't have the resources TO isolate -- even to get tested. The US has no trusted Public Health System, something I credit for other nations' successes against COVID.

We currently have millions unemployed, and without health insurance. Is this how you see a result of herd immunity, Hay?

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haydayhayday

Chisue:

"We currently have millions unemployed, and without health insurance.. Is this how you see a result of herd immunity, Hay?

I'd be happy to discuss the topic with you.

I don't understand, at all, your statement:

"Is this how you see a result of herd immunity, Hay?"

Try again?

Hay



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maifleur03

Lack of health insurance and or ability to stay home along with the homeless should increase the number of infections so it should increase herd immunity. If and it appears that it may be a big IF immunity lasts more than a few months. I think this country and others may be at the point to see if the people who had it earlier actually have immunity that lasts more than a few months. I have read lengths between 3 to 10 months. Some who were infected have had it a second time so either they never fully recovered or they did not develop immunity. If it is six months some of the early cases from February back should soon start developing it a second time if they have not been taking precautions.

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chisue

Yes, maifleur has explained what I mean.

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haydayhayday

"Lack of health insurance and or ability to stay home along with the homeless should increase the number of infections so it should increase herd immunity."

The more infections, the closer we are to herd immunity. I agree with that.

Hay

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heri_cles

Is it the norm to have been tested? Why would I, unless either symptomatic or as a prerequisite for a certain event.

The question is, whether or not you are contagious, even if you are asymptomatic.

The Harvard study I linked to indicates that people remain contagious for approximately 10 days after contracting the virus.

Presumably most people, knowing they would be contagious for another week, would choose to isolate themselves instead of infecting and possibly killing family and friends.






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haydayhayday


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/world/covid-19-coronavirus.html#link-7758fb01

and another version of the story here:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/24/us/coronavirus-cases-decreasing.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage




The headline tells the story:


Why Are Coronavirus Cases Decreasing? Experts Say Restrictions Are Working

That's what the experts are saying? My thought was that maybe herd immunity just might be a contributing factor.

My expert opinion.

Hay


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haydayhayday

My thought was that maybe herd immunity just might be a contributing factor.



The Dirty Dozen:

Ranked by Total Cases per One Million Population.

Louisiana is leading the pack with about 30,000 cases per million. Multiply that by 4 or so to account for the unreported cases. 120, 000 per million. 12% of the population. The 12% that are the active ones running around spreading and catching the disease.

Is that 12% infected already enough to kick in a bit of herd immunity?

Hay

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haydayhayday

Is that 12% infected already enough to kick in a bit of herd immunity?

Louisiana in Pictures:

Hay

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haydayhayday

Was the low cases, relatively speaking, that we're seeing in the Northeast due to Cuomo's daily rallies?

Or just the natural result of herd immunity kicking in?

Politicians love to jump out in front of a parade. Usually their only contribution to the celebration.

Hay

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haydayhayday

Bad Boy Sweden:


Good Boy Australia:

Hay

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Stan Areted

Thanks for the graphs, Hay.

I've come to the conclusion that the best laid plans of politicians, opportunists, fearmongers and "scientists" can't control mother nature, or United States citizens.

Or Swedes.

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heri_cles

Most of the information I have read indicates that Sweden is not an example of herd immunity working to lessen the death toll or spreading of the virus.

"Authorities predicted that 40% of the people in Stockholm would get the disease and develop protective antibodies by May. The actual prevalence, however, was around 15%, according to the study published Aug. 11 in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine.

"It is clear that not only are the rates of viral infection,
hospitalization and mortality [per million population] much higher than
those seen in neighboring Scandinavian countries, but also that the
time-course of the epidemic in Sweden is different, with continued
persistence of higher infection and mortality well beyond the few
critical weeks period seen in Denmark, Finland and Norway," said
researcher Dr. David Goldsmith, a retired physician in London.

Experience suggests that severely infected COVID-19 patients
acquire antibodies immediately and during early recovery, but antibodies
are much less common in only mildly ill or asymptomatic patients. This
means they are likely not immune, and can't prevent the spread of the
virus, the study noted. This is central to the concept of herd immunity.

In the other Scandinavian countries, rapid lockdown appeared
more successful in stopping the spread of infection, Goldsmith said."

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200813/swedens-no-lockdown-policy-didnt-achieve-herd-immunity


Also see:

Sweden hoped herd immunity would curb COVID-19. Don't do what we did. It's not working.

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heri_cles

If you believe it Hay, why have you been holed up for months on end ?

Get out there and get your immunity. Join the herd.

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elvis


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chisue

There's the problem that antibodies seem to decrease rapidly, even disappear entirely, post-infection. This is why scientists say we won't have a one-and-done vaccine (like measles), but will require annual shots (like flu).

Re: Sweden. I believe most of the mortality was in nursing homes, but we still don't know the long term effect of COVID on those who recover or are asymptomatic when they test positive. (It's a smart virus that does NOT kill its host, yes?)

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heri_cles

IMO....the issue of immunity has been overblown because, as Chisue has pointed out, immunity, if one obtains it at all, might be short lived, even with a potential vaccine.

Absent lasting immunity from vaccination or otherwise, we have to stop the spread through other means. If the studies that show that people only remain contagious for a short time after being infected are accurate, we can stop this without a vaccine.


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maifleur03

Then there is the story that was on BBC this morning of a confirmed reinfection. Reinfection's have been reported before but none have been been checked because it was apparently thought that the person had just not fully recovered. Although I do have difficulty calling it reinfection with it being two strains that have infected the individual and not just the same one. Several months ago there was a mention of several strains as the virus was mutating.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53889823?ocid=uxbndlbing

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jmm1837

I actually have real doubts that this can be stopped without a vaccine. The kind of herd immunity being described in the NYT article is extremely localized: if you live in a particular borough you're protected because so many people around you have antibodies that the disease can't circulate. But the minute you catch a subway to a different borough or go to another state for work or school, you're vulnerable again.

And it's not easy to stop the spread, especially when people are a- or pre-symptomatic. There was a case here of a family of 4 returning from overseas and staying in a quarantine hotel for the mandatory two weeks. They did have Covid and somehow one security guard caught it. He passed it on to co workers, family and friends and the original 4 cases ballooned into over 2000, all genomically linked.

Anyway, here's another view of herd immunity:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-15/coronavirus-herd-immunity-unlikely-without-vaccine/12559298

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heri_cles

I don't understand the notion that herd immunity is the answer absent wide-spread implementation of an effective vaccine or really why it is even being discussed before we get to that point. It just isn't a realistic option. It's like Hydroxychloroquine or Oleander - it just doesn't work. As pointed out in some of the links above people may lose their immunity a short time after they have recovered. We don't really know that, so why jump to conclusions based on unknown facts? Certainly we cannot make the entire country a Petri dish for the virus and let it continue to grow unabated.

This pandemic should never have been turned into a political football. Frankly, it makes it difficult for people to even discuss the issues. Hopefully, we start to unify on a strategy after the dust settles from the Pres. election.


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jmm1837

Have to agree. At this point the best we can do is slow the spread of the disease, because we can't get herd immunity without a vaccine, and even trying to reach it means the kinds of death rates we saw in NYC a few months ago.

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haydayhayday

Jmm:

"I actually have real doubts that this can be stopped without a vaccine. The kind of herd immunity being described in the NYT article is extremely localized

...

At this point the best we can do is slow the spread of the disease, because we can't get herd immunity without a vaccine, and even trying to reach it means the kinds of death rates we saw in NYC a few months ago."

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////



It wasn't a vaccine that got us out of the 1918 Pandemic.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/03/how-did-the-spanish-flu-pandemic-end-and-what-lessons-can-we-learn-from-a-century-ago

"How did the Spanish flu pandemic end and what lessons can we learn from a century ago?


History repeating itself


"Academics agree that the end of the pandemic occurred in 1920, when society ended up developing a collective immunity to the Spanish flu, although the virus never completely disappeared."


https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic


"At the time, there were no effective drugs or vaccines to treat this killer flu strain.

...

The first licensed flu vaccine appeared in America in the 1940s."

...

By the summer of 1919, the flu pandemic came to an end, as those that were infected either died or developed immunity.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/1918-pandemic-history.htm

With no vaccine to protect against influenza infection...


https://www.biospace.com/article/compare-1918-spanish-influenza-pandemic-versus-covid-19/

There were no vaccines for the Spanish flu


...

The first flu vaccine to be licensed in the U.S. came about in the 1940s.

...

The 1918 pandemic ended in the summer of 1919, mostly, Healthline reports, due to deaths and higher immunity levels.

...

And as has been pointed out, pandemics, from the 1918 Spanish flu to the H1N1 pandemic of 2009, do end. Sometimes with seemingly unbearable numbers of deaths, but eventually they do end.

Hay

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haydayhayday

Or, as our illustrious President is fond of saying,

"it will go away."



Hay

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foodonastump

Well something has dropped NY’s daily infection rate 99.9% and it wasn’t a vaccine. And that’s with eased social distancing.

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Stan Areted

haydayhayday

Or, as our illustrious President is fond of saying,

"it will go away."


:)

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haydayhayday

"Well something has dropped NY’s daily infection rate 99.9% and it wasn’t a vaccine. And that’s with eased social distancing."

I woke up this morning with this intuitive moment:

When they do modeling on "herd immunity", there's a lot of assumptions made about the nature of the underlying population and the nature of the particular disease.

That's a given.

As a start, a "naive" model would likely, basically, just assume we, the population, is mostly the same. The same in our behaviour, especially.

Of course, that's totally wrong.

Imagine, just as a thought experiment, that you have two sets of people in this population. Roughly half and half for this thought.

A set of people like me who basically NEVER venture outside my own little bubble.

Another set of people who do NOTHING BUT mingle and spread the disease around.

My intuition would suggest that has a strong bearing on the nature of the "herd immunity".

And that bearing could very well mean, my intuition, that the number of people who need to be infected could be way closer to half of the "naive" modeling.

Just pondering.

Hay



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foodonastump

Yes this was discussed here early last week. From NYT: The new estimates are the product of more sophisticated statistical modeling. When scientists factor in variations in density, demographics and socialization patterns, the estimated threshold for herd immunity falls.

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haydayhayday

"Yes this was discussed here early last week. From NYT"

I look at several twitter feeds from respected epidemiologists. The NYT is reporting old news.

It will take a while for that to filter down to the rest of us.

I'm doing my part to bring the latest thinking to the slow learners of the world.


Hay

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haydayhayday

I just grabbed this June 30 article which is an indication of the early thinking about how herd immunity is likely lower than the early "naive" forecasts.

The article is dated June 30 which is, at that time, of course, referring to the thinking among thinking people before that time.

Actually, the people who really understand the nature of these types of things knew it from before Day One.

It's really not much more than simple mathematics:

https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-tricky-math-of-covid-19-herd-immunity-20200630/

"The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19"


Hay

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haydayhayday

I can't take the time to track it down, but, when I was looking into the 1918 Pandemic, the numbers tossed around for the extent of the world that actually got the Spanish Flu was, if I remember correctly, around 30 to 40 percent.

That was apparently enough to achieve worldwide herd immunity.


Hay

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haydayhayday

May 1 article.

It's not much more than simple mathematics:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html?auth=login-email&login=email

One of the author's credentials:


Dr. Dean received her PhD in Biostatistics from Harvard University in May 2014. She received her AM in Biostatistics from Harvard University and her BA in Biology and Mathematics/Statistics from Boston University. She worked as an external statistical consultant for the World Health Organization’s HIV department.

Hay






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foodonastump

Any closer to feeling comfortable enough to leave your house with any regularity?

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maifleur03

Just a side note but one of the things that popped up on my phone this morning was that the CDC is now suggesting that only people with symptoms and not people who have been in contact with someone with the disease be tested. While on the face of it makes it appear that the virus is no longer a major concern. My take is that preventing the spread is no longer of any concern to them. I wish that they had continued to monitor the spread from asymptomatic people.

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haydayhayday


FOAS:

"Any closer to feeling comfortable enough to leave your house with any regularity?"

No.

That was in my last posted link.

And here is where we are today at Worldometers:



"It ain't over until it's over. "

Hay


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haydayhayday

I'm mostly conjecturing. Just like all of us.

Some conjecturing is better than other conjecturing, though.

Hay

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haydayhayday

I'm actually going to be doing my very first "curbside pickup" at a local grocery chain on Thursday.

Like everyone says they do: "Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. "

Says they do.....

I'm doing it.

Most people hope for the best

I don't know, but I am, right now, doing my preparations for the worst.

I'm venturing out, but only with a very cautious approach. The world has gotten more safe. So I'm willing to take a little more exposure to a more safe world that we have now in comparison to the middle of March.

I'm looking so forward to my first taste of yogurt in six months!!!!

Hay


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haydayhayday

"I don't know, but I am, right now, doing my preparations for the worst."

All along, I've thought that, to the extent that I need to go out, this time of year, late Summer, before the schools start up and the cold weather drives us back inside is perhaps the safest time to do it.

In the next week or so, I hope to be able to do all I need to be doing out in the germ-infested world and not needing to be going out for the Winter if I don't want.

All that is in line with Osterholm's prediction that we could see an explosion in cases when the kiddies go back to school and bring it home.


Hay

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haydayhayday

The Perfect Storm image occupies a big part of my brain these days.

I want to be prepared for the worst. I think I've done most of what I can realistically do with Covid with what I know.

I keep asking myself: "What are the what-if's that I could be missing."

Nuclear War?

Drought?

Social Uprising?

Keeps my little brain exercising all day long.

Hay


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elvis

Make your own, Hay. It's easy, look it up. You can even do it with powdered milk, canned milk, milk you have frozen, etc. You do need some plain yogurt for a "starter", though. Put that on your shopping list.

You can use the oven or crock pot!

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haydayhayday

"Make your own, Hay....."

Easy if you've got nothing more to do. It's not easy to hunker down. My life really does revolve around my next meal.

There was a time when I'd pick up a sandwich on my way to my next dance.

These days, it's:

Step One: Bake bread.

Hay

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haydayhayday

I've learned a lot of hunkering down tricks along the way.

I can hardly believe that there was a time I'd buy a lemon and leave it on the counter and it was unfit after a week.

I'm still eating fresh lemons that I bought six months ago!

Tricks of the trade.

I like a challenge.

Hay

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maifleur03

I too have been thinking about if I should do preparations for the worst especially social unrest after the election. With what I know I have enough people food but not enough furkids food to last until next spring or even longer. Cans will keep but not dry stuff as it tends to become rancid. Main question is for how many months.

While I know yogurt is spoiled milk each time I have tried or even thought about making it my mind rebels.

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HamiltonGardener

I'm looking so forward to my first taste of yogurt in six months!!!!

Just check that old milk jug in the back of your fridge. No need to go to the grocery store.

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chisue

I've learned that, despite what Chiquita said, you CAN put bananas in the refrigerator. Yes, they look *awful*, but once you remove the brown peel, the fruit is fine for over a week.

I also didn't know I could put an avacado in the fridge (wrapped tightly in plastic), and it would still be edible two weeks later.

I have held my N95 on my face for 20 minutes while getting a haircut. I'm the first appointment, before other stylists are working. I wash my hair at home; my stylist cuts it; I go home and use my heated curler to dry my hair. My stylist wears a surgical mask. I don't; extremely unlikely that I could infect her, given my isolation with only DH (who shops for groceries every 7 - 10 days, masked, and where everyone else is also masked).

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haydayhayday

There's beer in the back of my fridge.

Maifleur, I got a gift of a vacuum sealer. I've sealed a lot of stuff. It's supposed to extend the life a lot.

There's a reason coffee comes vacuum sealed.

I've cut my own hair since my college days.

I'm a good pruner.

Hay


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maifleur03

Have been thinking about a vacuum sealer but have not sprung for one. Been trimming on my hair. I have more body in my hair now than when I was younger. Have four more inches before the top layer is down to the nape of my neck. The weird thing is my hair is wavy on the bottom but straight from my ears upward. At the rate it grows it should all be the same length by Halloween. Will be interesting to see what it looks like then.

Now if the deer would just stop eating the leaves of the winter squash. I had a recipe that was similar to rolled grape leaves using young winter squash leaves but have not been able to try it.

It is going to be interesting to see the changes in things when we do get out. I took the chance and went to one of my favorite asian stores to see if mooncakes were in. There was so many elder apartments that have been built on the Kansas side that it almost looks like the old tenements with walls next to the street with narrower sidewalks than what was used prior. Most had businesses on the lower floor. I have problems with the thought of restaurants and bars being directly below senior housing. Both fire and noise problems worry me.

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heri_cles

I have to admit that I have been been taking some chances in terms of exposing myself to this virus, mainly out of necessity (doing remote work for my business).

Yea, stay home if you are older and can afford to do that. Stay safe my friends.

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terezosa / terriks

Yea, stay home if you are older and can afford to do that. Stay safe my friends.

Not just if you're older! Stay home and don't allow your body to host and replicate this virus!

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elvis

maifleur03

Have been thinking about a vacuum sealer but have not sprung for one.

I use mine a lot, I'm very fond of it.

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chisue

Only a few Americans are financially able to stay home, and unless the Senate acts to OK more aid to the unemployed and businesses going under...even fewer people will be able to survive, let alone isolate.

Inflation is rising. A deep recession is upon us. It was looming before COVID. Trump had and has no sustainable economic recovery plans.

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elvis

What is Biden's plan for sustainable economic recovery?

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AITG

He and Barry fixed the bush mess, which is to say that he's done this before.

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heri_cles

Unite the country behind a strategy to slow the spread of Covid-19.

Unite the country behind a plan for justice reform which makes everyone feel safer.

Stop Trump from promoting bigotry and racial animosity by removing him from Office and bringing him and his henchmen to justice.

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haydayhayday


Feel free to educate me.

I see more and more of these kinds of charts showing up.

Excess Deaths:

Excess Deaths.

I think the idea is that you look at recent years and get some "baseline" picture of the "typical yearly pattern" of deaths. Then, draw a line to allow for "reasonable" deviations from that number.

The orange line would be the reasonable deviation line. Anything above that would reasonably be considered not typical. I think that's the thinking. Feel free to educate me.

The blue are the actual deaths.

And the red pluses are the times the deaths appear to be "not typical".

Over on the left, in January, 2018 is where we had a particularly bad flu year.

Over on the right is Corona virus.

Hay

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haydayhayday

We were above the "normal" line in March and April and have been trending down ever since.

Very close to the "normal" line at this point.


Hay

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haydayhayday

Who's been doing all the dying?


Who's been doing all the dying?

Hay

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haydayhayday

Which suggests to me that the coronavirus is not nearly as much of threat as we might have felt in the early days back in the Spring.

My thinking:

The extremely high deaths among the old as compared to the young?

There are sick old people who are doing most of the dying. Sick and old people who already were close to death.

It doesn't take much to kill a really old sick person in a nursing home.

Does that mean that all those high death rates in the early Spring was not much more than what I'm pointing out and that it's not a fair representation for the danger of Coronavirus to the general population.

Will the Excess Death rate now continue dropping to skim along the normal rate?

Hay

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haydayhayday

The Big Picture:



Zooming in to the most recent day, week ending August 22.

Looking quite normal yet?

Hay

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haydayhayday

If someone old and feeble and can hardly move is standing on the edge of a cliff and the wind blows....

Is it fair to say he was killed by wind?

The young person standing next to him is still standing.

The next time the wind blows, the young person is still standing.

Hay

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chisue

We can HOPE you are correct, yet predictions today are for 3000 COVID deaths a day up to the new year...absent masking, distancing, washing. (Absent some miracle fast-track vaccine being approved, distributed, *accepted* by enough people. Apres vous, Alphonse!)

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haydayhayday

Chisue:

" predictions today are for 3000 COVID deaths a day up to the new year"

In the whole world or where?

I'm focused on the USA.

Worldometers:

When you look at a logarithmic chart, the slope of the graph is a reflection of the growth rate. Those pink and green lines.

See what looks like a trend since the terrible days of Spring?

Hay

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heri_cles

Hay: Two things-

1. if you are in decent health, why don't you venture out to get your herd immunity?

If not, don't promote it for others.

2. "Who's been doing all the dying?"

Older people for the most part and everyone knows that. The problem with oversimplifications is always in the details. Young health people, including some professional athletes have complained about complications from covid infections.

Post covid fatigue syndrome is one of the less serious but still significant complications that I have read about.

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haydayhayday

https://threader.app/thread/1298956319173545986

"I've been trying to figure out where the "Asian/Oceana Immunity" is coming from. All the countries showing this are in the Eastern Hemisphere so I looked for a pattern. I think I have figured it out: Countries where BATS are eaten show far greater immunity to COVID-19

Hay

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haydayhayday

"How did I get here?

@boriquagato showed me this paper
Apparently, the more T-Cell affinity you display for multiple SARS-CoV-2 epitopes (immune binding sites), the more immune you are to it
Being a coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 share many epitopes"

Hay

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haydayhayday

Go to MIT for free:


I have a bunch of epidemiologists' twitter feeds bookmarked and will take some time to see what they're saying.

Just now,

Started with:

https://twitter.com/mlipsitch

who retweets this:

https://twitter.com/MITBiology/status/1297903062942658562/photo/1

which links to this:

which is a good place to jump in and learn the details

https://biology.mit.edu/undergraduate/current-students/subject-offerings/covid-19-sars-cov-2-and-the-pandemic/

And here's the first one:




Hay

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haydayhayday

Interesting.

https://www.foxnews.com/travel/coronavirus-sniffing-dogs-passengers-helsinki-airport

Hope the dogs don't get it.

Poorly written article.

"Trained dogs can smell the coronavirus from 100 molecules or less — far less than the 19 million molecules used in PCR tests, according to Finavia. And research from the University of Helsinki has indicated dogs may have close to 100% accuracy in detecting the virus."

Hay


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cattyles

I’m interested in Heri’s question, too.

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cyn427 (z. 7, N. VA)(zone 7, Northern VA)

Today in the Senate. Link is from CNBC.


Fauci

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abzzybee(9/10 S. Florida)

Herd immunity is a pipe dream with this virus. Worldwide about 104 reinfections. Here's just one source, you can google for more.

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/

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Kathy

There is talk we may need a vaccine every year for Covid.

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haydayhayday

Your link is from CNBC, Cyn. I watched Fox's link earlier tonight and they include a lot more of the encounter. What Fox has that CNN doesn't have is all of Rand Paul's comments leading to his question for Fauci.

There's a lot there.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fauci-clashes-with-rand-paul-again-at-coronavirus-hearing-you-are-not-listening

At about 2;30 into the video, Rand Paul is talking about "cross reactive immunity"

Fauci dismisses the concept, but is he talking about the same thing?

A while back I had seen this on a twitter feed.

Interesting.

https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1298246346974154757

What is the REAL reason that the countries in the Oceania and Asian areas of the world have relatively low death rates?

In comparison, the USA has about 625 versus Japan at 12.

Could it be that the people in that region have been more exposed to this "type" of coronavirus (did originate in China) and have, therefore, some built in immunity to it? Cross Reactive Immunity? Is that what it's called? That's what Gummi is suggesting, I think.

Gummi mentions this link in another updated tweet.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1

"Importance: Fatality rates related to COVID-19 in Japan have been low compared to Western Countries and have decreased despite the absence of lockdown. Serological tests monitored across the course of the second wave can provide insights into the population-level prevalence and dynamic patterns of COVID-19 infection.

...


Conclusions and Relevance: COVID-19 infection may have spread widely across the general population of Tokyo despite the very low fatality rate. Given the temporal correlation between the rise in seropositivity and the decrease in reported COVID-19 cases that occurred without a shut-down, herd immunity may be implicated"

I'm certainly not advocating any of this. I don't know. I think it's interesting.


Hay





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haydayhayday

I do think that people tend to have a much too simplistic view of the nature of herd immunity.

The first version you'll see will be a 101 version where everyone is assumed to be the same in every way.


But, we're not.

Hay

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heri_cles

What is the REAL reason that the countries in the Oceania and Asian areas of the world have relatively low death rates?

They didn't have a bloated buffoon promoitng snake oil cures and making the wearing of masks a partisan issue. They were united in following the recommendations to social distance and to avoid large groups in enclosed areas. They do not have a Fox News equivalent - a 24/7 bull sheet and propaganda network designed to mislead and to manipulate public opinion.

Pretty simple.

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maddie260

The cross reactive immunity that Rand Paul, a non-practicing opthamologist, and Fox are promoting is bunk. I researched it quite a bit this afternoon- there is nothing to back up that faulty hypothesis.

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haydayhayday


Maddie260:

"I researched it quite a bit this afternoon- there is nothing to back up that faulty hypothesis."



https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C7&as_vis=1&q=cross+reactive+immunity+SARS-CoV-2&btnG=


Hay

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cattyles

Don’t you think that was a little dismissive and snarky, Elvis?

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maddie260

elvis: Well, seeing as you did the research and all, maddie. Thanks for sharing, now we know.

You can do your own research if you are truly interested. However, I think we come from different universes and beliefs about and of science?

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jmm1837

What to trust, what to trust? A google list of articles on the subject of cross immunity, with no synopsis or evaluation of their content? Or the top infectious disease expert in the US, Dr. Fauci, telling the former ophthalmogist that the theory has been debunked by the latest research?

Which is this:
https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa593/5907985

And which reaches this conclusion: "The current study, as well as an earlier study which tested 21 IVIG lots (9 Gamunex C, 10 Gammagard Liquid, 2 other) with a SARS-CoV-2-specific ELISA (RBD or spike
protein) that was shown to correlate well with a neutralization test [14] revealed the absence
of cross-reactive antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in IVIG lots produced from pre-pandemic
plasma. Currently available IVIGs can therefore not be expected to afford protection from
SARS-CoV-2 infection."

This is after Fauci slapped Paul down for thinking New York was close to achieving herd immunity: "I challenge that. You were not listening to what the director of the CDC said, that in New York, it's about 22 percent. If you believe 22 percent is herd immunity, I believe you're alone in that."

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cattyles

Fauci was a superstar today.

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linaria_gw(zone 7 (about))

jmm1837 What to trust, what to trust?


JMM, I really hate it if you throw out complicated puzzles like that...

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maddie260

Thx, jmm. I am able to access such articles as those, and did in my research. And, yes, Rand Paul, is a FORMER practicing opathamologist. I very much doubt his experience or fox news experience with clinical, infectious. or research medicine.

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heri_cles

I read the article in Science Magazine that Rand Paul is referring to.

It is written by mathematicians who manipulate data concerning groups of people infected with the Covid-19 virus and then analyze that data mathematically. Their conclusions are based on certain assumptions including:

"In our model, we assume that infection with and subsequent clearance of
the virus leads to immunity against further infection for an extended
period of time. If there is relatively quick loss of immunity, or if we
want to consider a time scale in which the impact of demographic
processes such as births and people changing age groups becomes
substantial, then we need further models."

So OK, I wanted to find out when the phase 3 testing of vaccines will provide evidence concerning how long the various vaccines will confer immunity to this virus.

Pertaining to my question:

"The phase 3 studies now under way on promising COVID-19 vaccine
candidates involve approximately 30,000 patients.

...the trial must continue until individuals in the control group become infected. It is impossible to predict how long that will take. Physicians who seek to advise healthy patients on taking the vaccine will rightfully require these data." (emphasis supplied)

A dangerous rush for vaccines


Therefore, the companies that are developing these vaccines must provide evidence not only as as to their efficacy but also as to their safety (i.e., lack of complications) and durability over time. Absent that data, not many people are going to be standing in line to get vaccinated.

As I and others have said on this forum, one cannot even begin to discuss herd immunity until an effective, safe and durable vaccine is widely available. Let's hope one is on the horizon, but in the meantime, politicians should back off and let the scientists do their work.

This pandemic should never have been politicized by Trump who called it a hoax by Democrats back in February. Since then he has been trying to downplay it in order to increase his chances on November 3. You want to listen to that blowhard on something critical to your health and to your family's well-being ? Really?

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haydayhayday

"Cell-mediated immunity is an immune response that does not involve antibodies."

Hay

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Nana H

I really don't understand how so many can be so dismissive of scientists and true specialists in the field and embrace the opinions of people who know absolutely nothing about infectious disease control and spread. It is quite remarkable but speaks to the inability of many for rationale reasoned thought....then again they voted for Trump.

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gettingnowhere

“Let's hope one is on the horizon, but in the meantime, politicians should back off and let the scientists do their work.”

No matter where you sit politically, racially, religiously or perhaps humanely...how can you not agree with this statement?

To those who doubt science, what say you when you need to see a dr. Whether it’s for a common cold, pregnancy, or cancer? Seems to me that science is a major component of medical school curriculae.

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haydayhayday

"Cell-mediated immunity is an immune response that does not involve antibodies."


https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/immune-cells-common-cold-may-recognize-sars-cov-2

"Immune cells for common cold may recognize SARS-CoV-2"

Your body’s disease defense system, the immune system, makes B and T cells when exposed to pathogens like viruses and bacteria. B cells make antibodies, which neutralize the microbes, rendering them harmless. T cells have a variety of functions, including killing infected cells and activating or recruiting other immune cells.


Once your body fends off a microbe, it retains some disease fighting cells as memory cells. The next time you’re exposed to it, a memory cell is ready to fight the disease again. This gives your immune system a head start in combating the disease.


Previous studies have reported that 20–50% of people who hadn’t been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 showed T cell responses against different parts of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.


...


We have now proven that, in some people, pre-existing T cell memory against common cold coronaviruses can cross-recognize SARS-CoV-2, down to the exact molecular structures,” Weiskopf says. “This could help explain why some people show milder symptoms of disease while others get severely sick.”

...

Notably, these findings contrast with those from antibodies, which haven’t shown significant cross-reactivity between common cold coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2. More research is needed to determine whether immune cell cross-reactivity contributes to the wide range of symptoms seen with COVID-19."

Hay



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haydayhayday


Hay

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Ziemia(6a)

may

may

"A study of blood samples taken before the COVID-19 pandemic showed that some people already had certain immune cells that recognize SARS-CoV-2."


before

before


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Ann

"This is after Fauci slapped Paul down for thinking New York was close to achieving herd immunity: "I challenge that. You were not listening to what the director of the CDC said, that in New York, it's about 22 percent. If you believe 22 percent is herd immunity, I believe you're alone in that."

Well, the good news about this is, while we don't know which one is more correct yet, we will know. As we look back at New York in 6 months or so, we'll be able to answer this.

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jmm1837

We may not know who is correct, but we can have a pretty strong suspicion that it won't be an amateur like Rand, who doesn't seem to grasp statistics, as opposed to the vast weight of epidemiologists, not one of whom has suggested a figure that low will deliver herd immunity.

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HU-400972298

Like it or not, herd immunity develops naturally and is at work whether Fauci likes it or not. The more cases reported, the more evidence that it is a factor. With 200,000 allegedly dead 'from' the novel corona virus (94% of these died 'with' the corona virus and an average of 2.6 other serious medical conditions), we have finally reached approximately the same deaths per capita we had during the 1957 China Flu epidemic. No suspension of civil rights, no stay at home orders, no silly masks no rush to vaccinate and no Fauci.

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Kathy

More than 90% of Americans are still susceptible to Covid. We have a long ways to go.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/americans-susceptible-covid-19-coronavirus-cdc-director/

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maifleur03

HU sorry but some of the same things that are recommended now were recommended 1957. My grandmother had it in 1957. Since she lived alone my mother was allowed to go see her but she had to wear a mask. Then she had to stand on the porch of the house and wash every area of her body that was exposed. What my parents forgot was that the water would be ice cold sitting in the back of a pickup until needed. It was memorable.

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cattyles

HU298’s comment contains dangerous misinformation relating to a contagious health crisis and Houzz should not allow it. Wear your mask, wash your hands and stay 6ft or greater away from others.

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jmm1837

" Like it or not, herd immunity develops naturally and is at work whether Fauci likes it or not."

Like it or not, almost everything you said was incorrect. Estimates of US deaths from the Asian Flu pandemic range of 1957/58 range, including the second wave in 1958, are around the 70,000 mark, a little over half the per capita mortality rate of Covid19 so far. The majority of those deaths, just as with Covid19, were among older people with associated comorbidities. Plus, you may have forgotten that they managed to get a vaccine out within a few months of the flu's arrival in the US, which greatly contributed to "herd immunity." And you may also be forgetting that the treatment of respiratory and heart problems associated with both diseases has improved just a tad in the 60+ intervening years. Without the lockdowns, sporadic though they have been, the US would be looking at numbers double what they are now. With more effective quarantine measures and early mask wearing, they could have been looking at numbers half what they are now.

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Kathy

If we have 200,000 deaths already how many will have to die for the other 90% to catch it or be exposed? Isn’t herd immunity supposed to kick in when approx 70% have anti-bodies?

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haydayhayday

https://www.gardenweb.com/discussions/6004100/many-snowbirds-still-planning-to-head-south#n=170

Nana:

"Think I'll stick with the real experts."

Which one?

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

https://gbdeclaration.org/

"The Great Barrington Declaration

As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.

Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.

Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.

Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.

As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.

The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection."




Hay


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haydayhayday

How does a non expert decide which expert to trust?

Any Catholics in the room?

Hay

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haydayhayday


"On October 4, 2020, this declaration was authored and signed in Great Barrington, United States, by:

Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations.

Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.

Who you going to believe?"

Hay

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haydayhayday

Who you going to believe?


"Co-signers

Medical and Public Health Scientists and Medical Practitioners

Prof. Sucharit Bhakdi, em. Professor of Medical Microbiology, University of Mainz, Germany


Dr. Rajiv Bhatia, MD, MPH, Physician with the VA, epidemiology, health equity practice, and health impact assessment of public policy, USA


Prof. Stephen Bremner,

Professor of Medical Statistics, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, University of Sussex, UK


Prof. Anthony J Brookes, Department of Genetics & Genome Biology, University of Leicester, UK


Dr. Helen Colhoun, professor of medical informatics and epidemiology, and public health physician, with expertise in risk prediction, University of Edinburgh, UK


Prof. Angus Dalgleish, MD, FRCP, FRACP, FRCPath, FMedSci, Department of Oncology, St. George’s, University of London, UK


Dr. Sylvia Fogel, autism expert and psychiatrist at Massachusetts General Hospital and instructor at Harvard Medical School, USA.


Dr. Eitan Friedman, MD, PhD. Founder and Director, The Susanne Levy Gertner Oncogenetics Unit, The Danek Gertner Institute of Human Genetics, Chaim Sheba Medical Center and Professor of Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine and Depertment of Human Genetics and Biochemistry, Tel-Aviv University, Israel

Dr. Uri Gavish, an expert in algorithm analysis and a biomedical consultant



Prof. Motti Gerlic, Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel


Dr. Gabriela Gomes, professor, a mathematician focussing on population dynamics, evolutionary theory and infectious disease epidemiology. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK


Prof. Mike Hulme, professor of human geography, University of Cambridge, UK


Dr. Michael Jackson, PhD is an ecologist and research fellow at the University of Canterbury, New Zealand.


Dr. David Katz, MD, MPH, President, True Health Initiative and the Founder and Former Director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center, USA


Dr. Andrius Kavaliunas, epidemiologist and assistant professor at Karolinska Institute, Sweden


Dr. Laura Lazzeroni, PhD., biostatistician and data scientist, professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences and of biomedical data science. Stanford University Medical School, USA


Dr. Michael Levitt, PhD is a biophysicist and a professor of structural biology. Dr. Levitt received the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems. Stanford University, USA


Prof. David Livermore, Professor, microbiologist with expertise in disease epidemiology, antibiotic resistance and rapid diagnostics. University of East Anglia, UK


Dr. Jonas Ludvigsson, pediatrician, epidemiologist and professor at Karolinska Institute and senior physician at Örebro University Hospital, Sweden.


Dr. Paul McKeigue, professor of epidemiology and public health physician, with expertise in statistical modelling of disease. University of Edinburgh, UK


Dr. Cody Meissner, professor of pediatrics, expert on vaccine development, efficacy and safety. Tufts University School of Medicine, USA


Prof. Ariel Munitz, Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel


Prof. Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu, Professor of Finance, Director at Behavioural Finance Working Group, School of Business and Management, Queen Mary University of London, UK


Prof. Partha P. Majumder, PhD, FNA, FASc, FNASc, FTWAS National Science Chair, Distinguished Professor and Founder National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, KalyaniEmeritus Professor Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India


Prof. Udi Qimron, Chair, Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel


Prof. Matthew Ratcliffe, Professor of Philosophy specializing in philosophy of mental health, University of York, UK


Dr. Mario Recker, Associate Professor in Applied Mathematics at the Centre for Mathematics and the Environment, University of Exeter, UK


Dr. Eyal Shahar, MD professor (emeritus) of public health, physician, epidemiologist, with expertise in causal and statistical inference. University of Arizona, USA


Prof. Karol Sikora MA, PhD, MBBChir, FRCP, FRCR, FFPM, Medical Director of Rutherford Health, Oncologist, & Dean of Medicine, UK


Dr. Matthew Strauss, critical care physician and assistant professor of medicine, Queen’s University, Canada


Dr. Rodney Sturdivant, PhD. associate professor of biostatistics. Director of the Baylor Statistical Consulting Center. Focus on infectious disease spread and diagnosis. Baylor University, USA


Dr. Simon Thornley, PhD, epidemiologist, biostatistics and epidemiological analysis, communicable and non-communicable diseases. University of Auckland, New Zealand.


Prof. Ellen Townsend, Self-Harm Research Group, University of Nottingham, UK.


Prof. Lisa White, Professor of Modelling and Epidemiology Nuffield Department of Medicine, Oxford University, UK


Prof. Simon Wood, professor, statistician with expertise in statistical methodology, applied statistics and mathematical modelling in biology, University of Edinburgh, UK"

Hay


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Ziemia(6a)

This statement of theirs needs verification:

" Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza. "

If only people would mask up and social distance, we could be mostly open (and there is no way bars can operate safely).

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haydayhayday


Ziemia:

"If only people would mask up and social distance, we could be mostly open (and there is no way bars can operate safely)."

Local expert.

Who you going to believe?

Hay

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deegw

We don't know enough about covid to definitively tout herd immunity as the solution. Educated people can make an educated guess. It's a guess because there is no firm data about many aspects of the virus.

We don't know how long immunity lasts, we don't know if the virus reinfects and we don't know if or how the virus might mutate.

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jmm1837

Interesting. I'm sure the experts are correct about the lower risk to children. The catch, though, is right here:

"The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection."

There are very few countries that have shown any kind of ability to provide the second half of the equation: focussed protection. The US and the UK, to name two, certainly have not. While allowing the disease to run wild in the pre teen set may make epidemiological sense it does not make public health sense if you don't have those protective mechanisms in place, including mask wearing, social distancing, extensive contact tracing, mandatory quarantines and much, much better management of aged care homes. The US can't even conduct effective contact tracing of the White House Corona Cluster: it sure isn't going to be able to stop infected contract cleaning staff spreading the virus through aged care homes.

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haydayhayday

So much for "Think I'll stick with the real experts", huh?

Funny.

Hay

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terezosa / terriks

Herd immunity is normally acquired via widespread vaccination, not through widespread infection and death.

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Nana H

One should not confuse the choice to not engage with acquiescence.

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haydayhayday

"Herd immunity is normally acquired via widespread vaccination, not through widespread infection and death."

Funny.

We've only had vaccines---primitive ones--- for about 200 years. We've only had more advanced ones in your lifetime.

Hardly the norm in the existence of man and his ancestors.

My readings told me that the end of the 1918 pandemic came about only because of herd immunity. I wasn't there, but that's what I read.

Hay

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haydayhayday

Nana:

"One should not confuse the choice to not engage with acquiescence."

Funny.

Hay

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nancy_in_venice_ca Sunset 24 z10

about 50 million people died from the Spanish flu, according to an estimate from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/08/20/fact-check-covid-19-deadlier-than-1918-spanish-flu-seasonal-flu/3378208001/

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Kathy

We are at approx 10% and herd immunity is approx 70%. Can you imagine how many would die if we just went on as normal with no masks etc?

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Kathy

Trump is on Twitter crediting Regeneron for his Recovery. Of course he may have a monetary interest in it too.


New York (CNN Business)President Trump received a high dose of an experimental antibody cocktail from Regeneron as part of his Covid-19 treatment. Now the drugmaker's stock is up sharply -- and questions are swirling about the president's ties toRegeneron'sbillionaire CEO.

Trump's team revealed Friday that the president received the drug, called REGN-COV2, which is being used to alleviate symptoms and reduce viral load. Shares of Regeneron surged 7% Monday, bringing the stock's year-to-date gain to more than 60%. The stock reached its highs of the day after Trump tweeted that he will be leaving the hospital Monday evening.

Regeneron CEO Dr. Leonard Schleifer and President Trump are acquainted: The CEO has been a member at Trump's golf club in Westchester, New York, and his company also received $450 million in government funding in July as part of the president's Operation Warp Speed plan to quickly develop a vaccine and other treatments for Covid-19.

Meanwhile, Trump also recently owned shares of Regeneron (REGN) -- as well as Gilead Sciences (GILD), maker of the antiviral drug remdesivir that the president is also taking. Both stocks were listed as assets on Trump's 2017 filing with the U.S. Office of Government Ethics, though neither were holdings on the president's most recent filing for 2020.

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Ann

"One should not confuse the choice to not engage with acquiescence."

Don't worry - I'd guess most understood why:) At least Hay did.

"So much for "Think I'll stick with the real experts", huh?"

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Nana H

"One should not confuse the choice to not engage with acquiescence."

Don't worry - I'd guess most understood why:) At least Hay did.

"So much for "Think I'll stick with the real experts", huh?"

Maybe acquiescence is too big a word.......

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Ann

"Lost" is a shorter/smaller word.

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Nana H

True .......but irrelevant.

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haydayhayday

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/sars-cov-2-antibodies-may-provide-immunity-for-at-least-5-7-months

"SARS-CoV-2 antibodies may provide immunity for at least 5–7 months

A study has found that people who have contracted SARS-CoV-2 remain immune to the virus for at least 5–7 months and probably much longer.

...

“We clearly see high quality antibodies still being produced 5–7 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection,” says Dr. Deepta Bhattacharya, an associate professor of immunobiology at the university, who co-led the research.

“Many concerns have been expressed about immunity against COVID-19 not lasting. We used this study to investigate that question and found immunity is stable for at least 5 months.”

...

In their paper, published in the journal Immunity, the scientists also note that out of nearly 30 million cases of COVID-19 since December 2019, there have been only about 10 confirmed cases of reinfection.

Hay


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HamiltonGardener

We clearly see high quality antibodies still being produced


Not surprising in people with functioning immune systems. It’s the immune compromised people we will need to protect.


Good morning, Hay

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haydayhayday

Good Morning!

You did leave off the real point, I think:

We clearly see high quality antibodies still being produced 5–7 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection,”

Whether we have any "long term" immunity is a question asked a lot.

Hay

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haydayhayday

"out of nearly 30 million cases of COVID-19 since December 2019, there have been only about 10 confirmed cases of reinfection"

That's another bit of newsworthy observation.

Hay

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haydayhayday

I saw an article this morning, but I can't find it now, but it was about the polyclonal antibodies that Trump took produced by Regeneron.

As I understand, that treatment involves giving Trump antibodies produced from people who had severe cases of Covid but survived. Their antibodies seem to be the best ones available.

The article I saw made the point....asking the question...does this give Trump any "long term" immunity?

The conjecture was probably not.

The thinking, as I remember, was that Trump's body didn't produce much of a antibody response itself and therefore.....

Hay





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catspa_zone9sunset14

Get back to us when a few scientists other than Battacharya announce similar findings, Hay. This is the reason why. Also, 5 months isn't exactly "long-term", now, is it? There is no way to rush this, as impatient as people (especially those with agendas) are.

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haydayhayday

Catspa:

"Get back to us when a few scientists other than Battacharya announce similar findings, Hay. This is the reason why. "

I'm baccckkk....

From your article:

“I did not anticipate the firestorm,” Jay Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine at Stanford University and the study’s senior author, tells The Scientist.

From my article:


“We clearly see high quality antibodies still being produced 5–7 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection,” says Dr. Deepta Bhattacharya, an associate professor of immunobiology at the university, who co-led the research.

Funny. You don't like that last name?



Hay

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haydayhayday


Catspa:

"Also, 5 months isn't exactly "long-term", now, is it?"

From the article:

Many concerns have been expressed about immunity against COVID-19 not lasting. We used this study to investigate that question and found immunity is stable for at least 5 months.

Bhattacharya points out that people who contracted the SARS-CoV virus responsible for the 2002–2004 outbreak of SARS were still immune 12–17 years after infection. This virus is very similar to SARS-CoV-2.

“If SARS-CoV-2 is anything like the first one, we expect antibodies to last at least 2 years, and it would be unlikely for anything much shorter,” he says.

...

The researchers began recruiting volunteers for testing in Pima County, AZ, on April 20, 2020.

Hay


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elvis

Very promising news, thank you for sharing this, Hay. Maifleur will be particularly happy to hear about this, I think, as she has voiced her concerns about re-infection.


Good morning, Hay. And Mai. ;D

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catspa_zone9sunset14

Wrong Bhattacharya -- my mistake! This Bhattacharya was at least addressing the false positives problem in antibody tests, not ignoring it. Still, as your article itself concludes, still too early to know how long immunity actually will last and, at a practical level, the 5 - 7 months they find wouldn't be "long term" enough, but let's see how it continues. Patience. As for there only being 10 confirmed cases of reinfection, what has the intensity of search effort been? If you don't look, you don't find.

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