Wednesdays seem to be poll days

Ann

I've noticed a large number of polls come out each Wednesday lately. Here are a bunch from CNBC today, including a number of state polls. Biden and the Dems are leading in all. But, I decided to take this whole group, one by one, and compare to the last group from CNBC (which was typically around the 7/12). In every case, the Biden or Dem lead had lessened (in some cases rather significantly) with the notable exception of North Carolina. In NC, the Dem lead has increased in both polls shown. Sorry I barely chopped off the first letters:)



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Toby

Why is Tillis doing so badly in NC? I thought red states loved their GOP Senators. He's being creamed by a black male candidate.

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Ann

I'd agree, Tillis seems to be really struggling right now. On the other hand, this poll was improving news for McSally, her best in a month.

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foodonastump

So today is a “polls are good” day.

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Nana H

That is a good number for McSally but the pattern is not favourable for her. Morning Consult had Kelly at + 16 yesterday, Marist had him at + 12 July 26th. State polls, particularly battle ground and Senate races are being reported almost daily now....it' s heating up !!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/arizona/

Edited to correct polster name.


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Ann

Nana, it is heating up. I completely agree.

Karl Rove was just commenting this week that the state polls have been incredibly different from one to another. He thinks as more come out and they find a bit more agreement, we might be able to gather info. But, as of yet, he thinks they aren't telling us much of anything. So, for now I've decided to occasionally pay attention to the trends/directions from single pollsters, as I discussed in the OP.

Your comment shows me a perfect example of the huge difference (regarding McSally). HUGE difference between +2 and +16 for McSally. Tough to know what to think with that kind of a discrepancy.

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Lars(Z11a (coastal L.A.) and Z9a (desert))

I think the purpose of these polls is to make democrats complacent and to make republicans riled up and more determined to get out and vote.

As the sage Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over till it's over."

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Ann

"So today is a “polls are good” day."

Is this your way of saying you think it's a "polls are good" day? Or not?

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Ann

"I think the purpose of these polls is to make democrats complacent and to make republicans riled up and more determined to get out and vote."

That's an interesting perspective to me. Can you elaborate please? Do you think the methodology being used is purposely being skewed? If so and if for the reason you said, are you thinking the majority of the pollsters are hoping for a Trump win? I'm thinking that highly unlikely which is why I'm hoping you'll elaborate.

IMO, I think it possible media, Google, pollsters, etc. are all up to their necks in trying to "influence" voters. When google searches are as "controlled" as some think they are right now, that's some serious influence. I believe there is a congressional hearing going on today about this very topic.

I certainly agree it ain't over till it's over! The polls are screaming that Biden will win, but I certainly have my doubts about a Biden win.

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Nana H

"Your comment shows me a perfect example of the huge difference
(regarding McSally). HUGE difference between +2 and +16 for McSally.
Tough to know what to think with that kind of a discrepancy."

I don't cling to any one poll or polster. There are always outliers pro and con. When looking at the specific polls I usually ignore the highest and the lowest.
Generally though, I look at the average over time in Battle ground States.

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Ann

The averages are what Karl Rove wants to see too, but he thinks the differences are far too extreme at present to garner reasonable averages - yet.

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Nana H

Sorry, but Rove's opinion is of no interest or value to me . While that may be true of Senate races I don't agree that is true for general election battle ground States

Edited

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Iris GW

I'm guessing that comment about a good day implies that you do this on good days and ignore polls on bad days. But I could be wrong.

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Ann

Yeah, I'm guessing it was that type of comment too, Iris. Thus the "Or not?" ending to my question:)

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Ann

More new polls have been added since I posted the OP. James had a better than usual looking poll in Michigan. Like McSally, his best in awhile.

I find this a useful "direction" chart on RCP, in order to very quickly see the changes in direction of a contest.


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Lars(Z11a (coastal L.A.) and Z9a (desert))

Ann, I do not blame the pollsters - I blame the Trump supporters who remain quiet, in order to skew the numbers. This is not the intention of the polls, as far as I know, but it is a consequence.

I should have said "consequence" instead of "purpose."😵

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Ann

Oh thanks Lars. That makes sense. I do think Trump supporters remain quiet and/or play with pollsters. I've been guilty of both. But, just this week, I actually got a poll call - my first in a long, long time (and one would think as a registered Independent, I'd get them often but I sure don't). Anyway, I was ready and willing to take the poll and be honest with my answers. The first question was whether I intended to vote. My answer was yes. The second question was my age group and I pressed a number corresponding to my age category. THEN, to my dismay, the recorded response was, "Thank you for your time but we have enough responses from your age group. Goodbye." Ugggh and LOL. I was all prepared to give all answers and honest answers.

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Nana H

Ann, a similiar thing happend to me but not about age. I saw it as a positive in keeping the results balanced across the various demographics.

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Ann

New Gallup poll out today and the most interesting thing about this particular poll is congressional approval. It's dropped from a better than usual level of 31% in May to just 18% now. Here is the specific breakdown by party affiliation.

"While partisans' approval ratings of the legislative branch have declined by double digits since May, Democrats' approval has fallen the most -- from 39% to 20%. At the same time, Republicans' approval has dropped from 24% to 14% and independents' from 32% to 21%."

Trump approval remains close to the same as last month (up only 1 point) but the difference in his approval from people from the two parties remains huge. Dems continue to hate him but I'm not seeing the Republicans dropping their Trump support as I often hear discussed on threads here. 91% is very high.

"The 87-percentage-point gap in Trump's approval rating between Republicans (91%) and Democrats (4%) remains among the highest measured by Gallup, exceeded only by the 89-point gap in June."


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Ann

In the RCP approval average, Trump has climbed a couple points lately. He hovered at around 41% a month or so ago and has gradually climbed to 43% (today's average). A two point gain is nice but he'd need another 4 points to get back to his winter high of around 47.

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Nana H

Thank goodness for Trump that Rasmussen posts a new poll every second or third day !

Here is a much more comprehensive list of polls....Rassmusen an outlier much!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/trump-approval/

ETA No idea why those old polls at the end of the list are showing up .....


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Ann

Nice, Rasmussen Trump approval back to 50 today for the first time since Feb.

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Nana H

Good ole Rassmussen.....

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Ann

I know, Nana, and I agree. After all, Rasmussen did a great job of very closely predicting the outcome of the 2016 election! That year, they happened to correctly identify all those many millions of Trump supporters you described as "low life" and it seems nearly all the other pollsters wanted an outcome so badly that they conducted their polls in such a way as to reflect what they hoped for rather than what was.

We have posters like that too. They think saying something will happen (with strong authority and added snark) will make it so. It's funny to witness. Like this:

"Sorry, Sad too, no matter how hard you try, Hillary will win. End of the story!"


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bfox254

I can't think of anything Trump's done lately that would improve his poll numbers

Chaos in the streets of Portland, biggest GDP drop in history, covering for Putin's bounty scheme, more lies about the pandemic...?

Possibly today's gem that a plan for nationwide covid testing was shelved in part because the pandemic was only ravaging blue cities?

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Nana H

Yes Ann they did call the 2016 election. Let's hope they are as accurate this year given they are, at this point anyway, favouring Biden.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_jul29


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Ann

I think every single poll favors Biden at this point. We'll see if that remains the case or not. Currently, Biden has an averaged lead of 8.3.



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Nana H

Yes we will see......

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Toby

That year, they happened to correctly identify all those many millions of Trump supporters you described as "low life"

What was their methodology that enabled them to identify them?

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Kathy

I don’t care how much Biden is favored it will hard for him to win. The GOP and Trump have tipped the scales with the USPS slowdown, voter suppression, gerrymandering and delegates not adhering to their district votes.

All the polls in the world can’t fix those problems.

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Ann

Toby, I've never looked into the methodology (that which is shared with the public) of any pollster. Only a very few pollsters got it right or close in 2016 so I wonder if other pollsters have made changes to their own methodologies to try to incorporate the success of the ones who did well (if those others can even determine what led to the successful polling). I can imagine that successful strategies might be kept somewhat confidential since I would think any pollster would like to be the one who most closely predicts the actual outcome and might not be anxious to share their successful techniques:)

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nancy_in_venice_ca Sunset 24 z10

General favorability / approval numbers aren't particularly relevant for POTUS elections.

State-by-state polls give a clearer picture of what the electoral college vote might be.

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Ann

Looking at the polls tonight, I see Biden's 8.3 point lead has shrunk to 7.8 since this morning. I found that curious and I now see Emerson released a poll with Biden only up by 4 (which appears to have caused this tightening). The last Emerson poll was in very early June, when they had Biden up by 6.

Then, not really remembering anything about Emerson, I checked the 538 rating of Emerson. They seem to like Emerson (giving them an A-) and rate them as very slightly skewed left/Dem.

Not a big deal, but there is no doubt in my mind the polls are tightening a little bit. Biden was up by an average of 9 or over just recently (within the last two weeks). Polls are expected to tighten as elections approach. But, then I looked at the last three months of the Trump vs Clinton race and see there were significant changes in those final 90 days! Here is what those last three months looked like. Looks like a nearly identical spread between Trump and Clinton 90 days before the election as there is right now between Trump and Biden.



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Ann

Tomorrow is the poll day of the week. I'm looking forward to comparisons to the various things I wrote about last week. FOAS, don't worry, I'll comment whether things look good or bad for Trump and GOP candidates:)

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Nana H

Lots of State polls out yesterday and today.....TX, SC, KY, AL, CA, MO, MI WI, OH. PA.

Texas will be interesting to watch. Started to move toward Biden in June. Pretty much a dead heat...that would be a shocker!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/


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Toby

NPR did an analysis yesterday and polls were only one of the metrics they used. One thing they said is that we need to understand that polling isn't predictive. I felt that that was important to remember when we argue about poll accuracy. It shows us how voters feel on that one particular day, which is why they ask "If the election was today, who would you vote for?" Often you hear the polls were wrong in 2016 and can't be trusted or that Rasmussen was right because they predicted a Trump win.

I don't have time to check 2016 polling, but my recollection is that the polls tightened after Comey announced that they had found more of Hillary's emails. I'm pretty sure some of those "wrong" polls were within the margin of error close to election day.

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Nana H

Will be very interesting to see what the polls are saying in early September. Many States are opened for mail-in voting by then. I can't imagine there is a huge "undecided " factor this cycle. It is entirely possible that a healthy percentage will have voted by early October.

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foodonastump

FOAS, don't worry, I'll comment whether things look good or bad for Trump and GOP candidates:)


Sorry, I didn’t come back to read your question about my last comment. “Good” had more to do with confidence in the data than the actual results. Though there does seem to be a correlation.

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nancy_in_venice_ca Sunset 24 z10

The state polls offer an interesting picture: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida in particular.

Arizona too.

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Nana H

Nancy , agree the State polls are the most important now. Presidential Approval and National numbers are mildly interesting but not much more than that. It's all about the States from here on.

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Toby

NPR has NC, WI, OH, and GA as toss-up states. Several others have gone from toss-up to lean Dem. As I said earlier, they use additional metrics.
https://www.npr.org/2020/08/03/897202359/2020-electoral-map-ratings-trump-slides-biden-advantage-expands-over-270-votes

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Ann

Well, so much for comparing this Wednesday to last. Very few new polls out today (so far at least) but I'll check again later.

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Nana H

There were quite a few State polls released Monday and Tuesday and some more again today. Not sure what you are looking for but there were about 14 State polls with some doubles as well as several National.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

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Ann

This has tightened a bit. It was at 8.4 last Wednesday and has shrunk to 7.0 since then.


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Ann

Nana, on 538, I did notice Zogby has PA, Ohio, and Florida very close or tied but I'm not familiar with Zogby, don't know if Zogby has reported on those three states previously (for trend/comparison) and although 538 is showing those as just reported today, the data is about two weeks old. So, those were only sort of interesting. I find RCP a much better website because they don't adjust and it's a far better layout IMO. RCP doesn't include Zogby from what I've seen.

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Ann

There is some brand new data on Iowa and Ernst, the first in a few months, I think. I liked seeing that Trump and Ernst lead.

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Nana H

Ann, 538 doesn't adjust on anything but Presedential approval none of the State polls are weighted. . 538 reports the polls when the pollsters releases it. They are nothing more than a source for all polls.

I am past Presidential approval and National level polls. Voting starts in three weeks So I am only focused on State level polls. 538 makes it very easy to see ALL the State level polls and how they are moving over time. Over 15 reported in three days.

RCP seems much more restrictive but none the less I look at it in order to get as an informed opnion as I can.

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Nana H

"There is some brand new data on Iowa and Ernst, the first in a few months, I think. I liked seeing that Trump and Ernst lead."

Ann, you must have missed the July and June polling......there has been continuous polling on Ernst. I do agree that by that one poll she seems to be doing better than she was. Will be a close race I think. For Ernst.....not for Trump. I think he will take Iowa.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/iowa/

Edited

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Ann

Nah, I didn't miss anything. As you know, I use RCP. Here is the entirety of the Iowa Trump vs Biden polls on RCP. There is a brand new one that I referred to and the last one was nearly two months ago.

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Ann

And, here is that Senate race. Again, the new one and the last one over 1.5 months ago. These three are all they have for that race - ever.


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Ann

Thanks for your link though. I am pleased to see the improvement for Ernst, over more polls than I had previously seen. Good news.

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Ann

We did finally get a poll that interested me quite a bit later today. The Hill/HarrisX has Biden with only a 3 point lead over Trump, which is the same lead Rasmussen has in their latest Trump vs Biden poll. Two weeks ago, this Hill/HarrisX poll had Biden with a 7 point lead. Today's Hill poll dropped Biden's RCP average lead over Trump to 6.4, from 7.0 earlier today. So the 8.3 Biden lead from Wednesday morning last week has now shrunk to 6.4. I do think that is significant - in just a week.

Polls should tighten in the last 3 months and in this first week of that timeframe, they have indeed tightened.

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Nana H

Today's Iowa Poll by Data for Progress shows Ernst down again (Greenfield +2 ). That's 6 out of seven polls since the start of June. Iowa would be a sweet win for the Dems in their battle for the Senate.

Edited my post. I thought Iowa was solidly Trump and it was but Biden has closed that gap since June and now it's a virtual tie with Trump +1.3

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Ann

I was curious to see how polls compared for the last 2 presidential elections, at the very same time. So, I grabbed 7/25 - 8/5 list from RCP for each election (Trump vs Clinton followed by Trump vs Biden). There was more polling in 2016, but here are how the most recent 12 or so days compare. Interestingly, the only pollster that shows up in both groups is IBD and also interestingly, IBD has the exact same lead for the Dem over Trump in both cases. I think I may be remembering correctly that IBD was the most accurate pollster of all in 2016, but I didn't take the time just now to make sure of this.



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Ann

This is interesting in the betting markets. Just a week ago (8/1) the spread was 20 cents and even greater (22-23 cents during some days) about two weeks ago. Now, just 11 cents.


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Lars(Z11a (coastal L.A.) and Z9a (desert))

Might be a good time to buy.

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Ann

12 days ago, this was current on RCP, as posted up thread:

I decided to take a look at each of these categories tonight. Here are the changes:

RCP National Average now - Biden +6.9

North Carolina - Biden +2.0

Florida - Biden +4.0

Wisconsin - Biden +6.4

Pennsylvania - Biden +5.0

Arizona - Biden +2.2

Generic Ballot - Dem +8.4

With the exception of Wisconsin, in these categories, the last 12 days have shown improvement for Trump.


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Ann

Lots of new polls out today. Trump RCP approval average at 43.4 today. Individual swing states made small changes for the most part, Biden still leading most by about 4 or 5 points on average. In this most recent group of new polls, in some swing states, Biden has gained a bit of ground and in some he has lost a bit of ground. Biden's "Top Battlegrounds" average is currently +4.3.

One state of interest to me right now because of a significant recent change is North Carolina. It's a tie for the first time since June and has recently tightened quite a bit.


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Ann

Read an interesting election article (dated yesterday) from Pew Research Center about the election. It was long but I found this chart especially interesting.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/08/13/election-2020-voters-are-highly-engaged-but-nearly-half-expect-to-have-difficulties-voting/

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foodonastump

Haven’t clicked on the link yet but the chart looks really bad for Republicans. The issues split is 50/50 but the Democrats lead by far greater margins. The lowest margin Democrats are ahead on is immigration at seven, Republicans only beat that on two issues, and both of those still lower than the Democrats’ second lowest. 91-32 if my quick addition is correct.

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foodonastump

One by one: Climate change of course, contraception I’m glad to see Dems’ large lead, health care and Covid no surprise, no surprise with race issues either, I’d have expected a Republican edge on immigration, not sure what I think about the Rep edge on foreign policy, fed deficit I think the admitted they don’t care about, would have expected a larger Rep lead on law enforcement, SMH at gun policy though not totally surprised, no surprise with economy, nor with terrorism.

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foodonastump

^^^

Just to clarify, while I’ve inserted some of my opinion on the issues, overall it’s supposed to be my reaction to the polling results.

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Ann

Not sure I'm following your logic in the first comment following the chart other than the Dem lead is larger on several of the 6 issues they lead in than the Republican lead is in the 6 issues they lead in.

The abortion topic is one I won't go much beyond saying I'm very glad of the GOP side on that one. I noticed you referred to the issue as "contraception" and I think there are few in the country who would do the same. The front and center issue is abortion and Dems are more in favor of it and at later stages than Republicans. Dems are welcome to that one!

I'm very happy the GOP leads on foreign policy, law enforcement and criminal justice, economy and terrorism! All 4 of those are very important to me.

I don't know if I'm typical of a Republican but that chart does not look at all bad for Republicans IMO.

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Ann

No need to click the link unless you want to read about the many topics the article covers. As far as the chart goes, I don't know that the article added much to the content of the chart as the chart itself is fairly complete in explaining that section of the article.

One more thing about the terrorism topic. I clearly remember Obama calling terrorist attacks a new norm. That was so incredibly unsettling to me. Then along came Trump. Thank you very much for that President Trump.

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foodonastump

Not sure I'm following your logic in the first comment...

Republicans lead by 9 points on the two issues that they lead the most on. On the issues where Democrats lead, they lead by more than that on all but one. In other words, they have the same number of wins, but the Dem wins overall are significantly greater.

And don’t read anything into my saying contraception rather than abortion. I support women’s access to both, and while I’d possibly be open to certain limitations I’d never trust Republicans to set them.

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Nana H

While I agree that the enthusiasm for Biden isn't as strong as the enthusiasm to oust Trump...enthusiam is enthusiasm and it brings voters out. I thought this was interesting from the article.

"Currently, 83% of registered voters say it really matters who wins the
presidency, up from 74% four years ago and the highest share saying this
in two decades of Pew Research Center surveys.
Nearly identical shares
of registered voters in both parties say it really matters who prevails;
other indicators of engagement with the election are equally high among
Republican and Democratic voters."

Voters are really engaged and opinions are strong which is different than in 2016. If I recall correctly right up to the last minute there was a significant number of undecideds in 2016. Don't think that can be said this time....from the article.

'While virtually all of the “strong” supporters of both Biden and Trump
say they are certain to vote for their preferred candidate, 90% of
Biden’s “moderate” supporters express certainty about voting for him; a
somewhat smaller majority of Trump supporters (83%) say they are certain
to vote for him.

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Ann

A new NBC/WSJ poll out today. This kind of interested me from the poll detail:

Of Trump voters asked what prompted their vote more, 74% said "for" Trump and 20% said "against" Biden. In 2016, it was 39% for Trump and 53% against Clinton. In 2012, it was 35% for Romney and 58% against Obama. In 2008, it was 61% for McCain and 29% against Obama.

Of Biden voters asked what will prompt their vote more, 36% said for Biden and 58% said against Trump. In 2016, it was 49% for Hillary and 46% against Trump. In 2012, it was 72% for Obama and 22% against Romney. In 2008, it was 81% for Obama and 11% against McCain.

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Ann

In this same new NBC poll, voter interest is strong, with 74% saying they are very interested in the election (answering 10 on a scale of 1-10). The two other times interest was very similar or equal were 2008 and 2004.

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Ann

Then onto which party respondents want to control Congress. 42 want Republican and 47 want Dem. In June of this year, it was 40/51.

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Ann

Now this is interesting for several reasons - one being that Trump reaches his highest level of his term of people feeling optimistic and confident about Trump doing a good job if elected again as president.


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Ann

Here is some nice news for Trump from a new poll released today. These changes (since June) are large and quite significant. In fact, these changes are so significant, it kind of makes me wonder if possibly games are being played in the polls/media (CNN).

"Biden leads Trump by just 4 points, with Biden at 50 percent and Trump at 46 percent, according to a CNN poll released Sunday. That marks a significant shift since the poll was last conducted in June, when the Democrat led Trump by 14 points, with Biden at 55 percent and Trump at 41.

The movement in the poll among voters is concentrated among men, who were split about evenly in June but who now back Trump over Biden 56 to 40 percent, and voters between the ages of 35 and 64, who tilt toward Trump now but were leaning toward Biden in June, according to CNN.

Among independents, Biden also held a 52 percent lead over Trump's 41 percent in June, but now independents are nearly evenly divided with 46 percent backing Biden and 45 percent for Trump, according to CNN."

ETA: This poll was conducted August 12-15.

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Ann

"The movement in the poll among voters is concentrated among men, who were split about evenly in June but who now back Trump over Biden 56 to 40 percent"

This makes me wonder if the Harris pick has anything to do with this. This poll was conducted beginning the day after the Harris announcement and went for those first 4 days. Maybe it has nothing to do with that and is just coincidental or related to something else.

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Nana H

That is a significant shift, especially amongst men. We'll have to see how the new polls go to see if it is a trend or an anomaly. Especially interesting to watch and see if it is the Harris factor.

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Ann

Again, this almost feels fishy to me as this change is so big. I watch the polls rather closely and Trump has done a little better in recent weeks, but it's been gradual and small changes. This poll is weird in that articles about the same poll are saying the Harris pick was well received among those polled, so while a bad pick might explain this, I'm just not hearing any reports saying Harris was a bad pick. Some are reporting her as a pick that won't change much (and that is being seen as a positive generally), but that's about as negative as the coverage of her has been - and much of the coverage has been positive.

Now, I happen to view her as having a very unlikeable personality, but that's a personal opinion I've held for some time. I found her to be highly annoying in the debates and I will admit, even the little I've heard from her since she was picked totally brings that remembrance back.

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Nana H

Agree it' very odd. I'm hoping Harry Enten , CNN poll and stats whiz kd, comes on this morning to give his perspective. ....actually I think he is coming on after a commercial. He is quite bright, balanced and funny.

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Nana H

Well he didn't have much to say other than what he has said before about margin of errors being the reason he looks at averages across several polls in the same period. He said that, when looking at averages, there has been a slight tightening which is what we have noticed too.

What he did stress was the enthusiasm level being very high, the highest in many years and it is pointing to a huge turnout. Who does that favour ? Tense times ahead!!!

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Toby

It's interesting that in late 2016, when Trump was the nominee, 17% - 22% of the respondents were optimistic and confident that he would do a good job as president. In the four years he's had to prove himself, that's only increased by five to ten points to 27%. Those who felt pessimistic and worried in 2016, about half of the respondents, feel the same way today.

I'm still wondering what it's going to take to increase his numbers from that core 42% of his base. In this election he seems to be running on 1. I can bring back the economy and 2. Biden is going to ruin the suburbs. That's all I'm getting from his messaging.

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Ann

Regarding the economy, that gap between Trump and Biden is widening quite a bit lately. As Nana had correctly pointed out a month or so ago, Biden was about tied with Trump in terms of how they polled on the economy. Not anymore. Trump has certainly regained his lead in that category - in many polls - and it's a pretty big lead in some.

Biden, has a big lead in several other categories (and in more categories than Trump, for sure).

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Ann

"CNN shows a more even split among independents than most any recent poll, with Trump trailing by just one point. The Post-ABC poll has Biden up 17 there, Monmouth has him up 19, and NPR-PBS has him up 16. The only comparable recent poll is CBS-YouGov, which actually had Biden trailing by five among independents — despite leading by 10 points overall."

This (from WaPo) is more about that CNN poll, which is certainly getting a lot of attention today - in print and on TV.

There is suddenly a large polling variation in certain categories, like this one about Independents. Biden up 19, an even split, and Trump up 10 certainly indicates a complete lack of agreement between polls - not even on the same planet:)

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Ann

Two good polls out for Trump today. 51% approval in Rasmussen. He's been there a few times before but the last time was in very early summer. But, even better is a new poll showing a Minnesota tie. I bet we'll be seeing a lot of Trump in Minnesota prior to the election. He'd love to win that state!

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HU-514664839

SOURCE: Real Clear Politics

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Ann

Ohiomom, I like that chart and think it would be a great one to post every couple weeks for comparison/trending sake. How, specifically did you get that one? I see BBC, RCP, and AP on it and you wrote RCP as the source, but I haven't seen that one in RCP and I'd love to know where in RCP it came from.

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Ann

Never mind, I found it in a BBC article. Maybe they'll do it regularly. I hope so.


https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-53657174

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Nana H

Thanks OH, that chart sure is looking good for Biden in his must win States. Let's hope it holds and is bourne out to be true...but I'm sure not ready to place any bets.

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Ann

I was just thinking about that chart and I so wish they would have added one more column to it - what the Trump or Clinton lead was (per state) at the exact same date according to the RCP averaged lead back then. I think that would have made it so much more informative in terms of tracking over time.

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Nana H

I suspect his handlers only put the Rasmussen poll on his desk and not the two Morning Consult polls showing him at 40 for registered voters and 38 for adults. Bet those two got hidden under his security briefing 'cause they knew he wouldn't look there.

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Nana H

"Two good polls out for Trump today. 51% approval in Rasmussen"

Six polls out on job approval today...which one of these is not like the others?

You Gov 42

You Gov 40

Rasmussen 51

Echelon 40

Morning Consult 40

Morning Consult 38

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Ann

Huge differences! Same kind of situation I was noticing (and commenting just above) on Monday of this week among Independents with an even split in that CNN poll and a huge Biden lead in the other polls. Monday it was CNN (and Independents), Thursday of the same week it's Rasmussen (and Trump job approval) as some serious outliers in recent pollsters. The various pollsters must be using significantly different methodologies! There are certainly some that are nothing "like the others". Now, why is that and who is doing a good job? If these huge differences keep up, we'll not only have some polling winners but we'll have some really bad losers. Fun times for sure.

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Ziemia(6a)

38 - 42 from 5 polls

51 from 1. The 38-42 range is so much smaller than that in from 42 to 51.

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Ann

Nice, Martha MacCallum just opened her show providing the exact info I was wishing to gain from the "extra column" I wish the BBC chart posted by Ohiomom would have contained - but for only one state. Gosh, I wish that "extra column" was there for all those 14 states. I could calculate it myself but I'd have to know how many polls are averaged to obtain the RCP average and it would be a bit of a time consuming process. But, if I get bored later on, maybe I'll do it for at least a few of those states.

On this exact day in 2016 (8/20) Pennsylvania's RCP average was 49.2 Clinton, 40.0 Trump. So, a 6.4 Biden advantage this year and a 9.2 Clinton advantage within a few days of the same time in 2016. But, of course 2016 compared to 2020 could be apples and oranges, or not:)

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Ann

My curiosity got the best of me and it wasn't too time consuming. I did several of the states just as RCP would have figured their averages (the 4 most recent polls) prior to August 18, 2016 (to compare exactly to ohiomom's chart). So, I'll give 2020 first (from ohiomom's chart) and 2016 next for each state.

Wisconsin 2020 - Biden +6.5; 2016 - Clinton +8

AZ 2020 - Biden +2; 2016 - Trump +1.25

Florida 2020 - Biden +5; 2016 - Clinton +5

Michigan 2020 - Biden +6.7; 2016 - Clinton +8

Minnesota 2020 - Biden +5.3; 2016 - Clinton +5

Ohio 2020 - Biden +2.3; 2016 - Clinton +2.25

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Ann

So, it is looking quite similar to 2016 on August 18th! One notable difference is Biden has higher numbers than Clinton did and Trump 2020 also has higher numbers than Trump 2016 did - but the differences are very similar.

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HU-514664839

Today was not like yesterday and tomorrow will be different than today.

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Ann

Very true, ohiomom, and your "wishful thinking" won't bring a Biden win just as mine won't bring Trump win. For now, all we have to go by are the polls. But, we also know how badly the pollsters struggled with 2016/Trump as a candidate. I'm trying to view the polls and to combine that with the surprise I felt about the Clinton loss in 2016. I actually think a detailed comparison to 2016 is the very best indicator we have. I don't think it's an apples and oranges comparison since Trump is the common element (and clearly the complicated element for pollsters).

Another way of looking at it might be to just assume the polls are much better this time - in which case Biden is highly likely to win. But again, wishful thinking on any voter's part will not win this election, no matter how hard any of us work to "justify" our wishful thinking.

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HU-514664839

Or how some try to take one positive poll and twist all of it into an oversalted pretzel.

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Ann

What a polarized country we've become over the last 60 years! Not all the sudden but little by little, typically increasing with each new administration. Carter and GH Bush are notable exceptions (neither very polarizing). Interesting trend all the way to Trump with the highest party approval of all for Trump and the lowest approval of all from the opposition party. This trend is especially apparent for the most recent three men on the chart. Source was a Pew article from today.


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Ann

This chart brings to mind how often I hear Dems say their siblings who are Republicans hate Trump and would never vote for him. Just this week, I entered a restroom at a golf course where two friends, acquaintances, or at least golf partners for that day were talking about Trump (in a very negative way) while washing their hands. They kept going when I entered and while I was in the stall, one said her two brothers were lifelong Republicans but they both hated Trump and would never vote for him. I smiled as I heard this thinking of how often I've read this type of thing on HT. This seems to be a very common theme - Dems feeling convinced their Republican relatives and friends would never vote for Trump. Seeing a chart like this and being aware of Republican support for Trump in numerous polls - I just don't believe this could be true in so many cases. Either siblings or friends are "playing" games with others, Dems are having such a strong reaction to hearing a sibling will vote for Trump (thus making the sibling not want to deal with the upset), or some such situation. But, there is simply no way a ton of Republicans are Trump haters who would never vote from him. The president has almost or maybe even actual unprecedented approval among his party supporters! All polls and all charts tell us that and it stays very stable. Trump simply has not "lost" support from his supporters.

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Iris GW

This seems to be a very common theme - Dems feeling convinced their Republican relatives and friends would never vote for Trump. Seeing a chart like this and being aware of Republican support for Trump in numerous polls - I just don't believe this could be true in so many cases.

I feel the same way when someone brings up the 'walkaway' stories.

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vgkg Z-7 Va(Z-7)

...golf partners for that day were talking about Trump (in a very negative way) while washing their hands."

That is strange Ann, usually people are washing their hands when they're talking about trump in a positive way.


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Ann

Several new state polls out this morning, changing the averages a little (or a lot - like in Wisconsin). These are the changes in the RCP averages since 8/18.

Wisconsin has tightened by 3 points to Biden +3.5.

Florida has tightened by 1.3 points to Biden +3.7.

Pennsylvania has tightened by 1.1 point to Biden +5.5.


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Nana H

538 as of this AM...these are the average numbers of today's polls...they are not rolling averages which include older data

WI 6.1

FL 5.4

PA 5.8

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Iris GW

Looking for some insight: What is the positive or negative associated with rolling averages?

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Nana H

It's probably just personal preference but I like a view that shows me the numbers day by day with no historical influence but does show me tightenings and expansions over time.

A rolling average averages the numbers of all polls for a State over the last X number of days to come up with one number that is an average of those X number of days.

For example, the number Ann is showing for WI is an average of all Wisconsin polls over the last X number of days so the number she is showing represents an average of 3.5 over X number of days. I don't know how many days they include in their rolling average. The number I am showing is the current polling number in Wisconsin today.

I'm not explaining it very well but here is an example of a 538 State chart for Wisconsin. As you see today's polls have him at 6.1 whereas he was at 3.6 the first of June, increased to 8/9 late June early July and then settled back in in the 6/7 range. I like seeing the complete picture over time. In this case, there was a significant increase in early June then a tightening but seems to have settled in between 6 and 7

As I say it's a likely a personal preference but I like seeing the real numbers and how they change day by day over time, not averages.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/wisconsin/

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mudhouse

I'm curious to see if there's any bump for Trump after the Republican convention concludes. Reuters/Ipsos poll today shows no bump for Biden, after the Democrat convention.

Hillary saw a 4 percentage point gain, after the Democrat convention in 2016.

There could be a number of reasons, including a smaller number of undecided voters this time, as well as Covid causing the parties to use an unconventional virtual/in-person mixture format. I sure don't know. 2020 continues to be a weird year where nothing is normal.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKBN25M156

Biden gets no convention bounce after Democratic gathering: Reuters/Ipsos poll

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Nana H

Mudhouse, while it is true that Biden didn't get a bump in terms of election outcomes he got a significant bump in favourabilty. I posted this, which is from the same Ipsos poll, on a different thread,.

...........

No bounce in terms of likelihood of winning, which was already pretty
high, but as socks says voters in this election cycle are already
firmly entrenched. Not a lot of undecideds out there.

However, he got a big bounce in favourablity which is very important.
People came away with a much more favourable view of Biden......a
reason to vote for Biden. not just against Trump.


"The good news for Biden comes in the form of favorability ratings. A new ABC News/Ipsos poll shows that Biden's net favorability rating (favorable - unfavorable) is up compared to before the conventions.

Biden's net favorability rating climbed 8 points from -3 points last to +5
points among all adults.
It's up from -2 points to +3 points among
registered voters.
That's in-line with the average post-convention poll
indicating Biden's net favorability is up by between 5 and 10 points.
Biden's jump into positive net favorability ratings is a big development.

His net favorability rating (favorable - unfavorable) averaged -1 point
before the conventions began. That's below the +6 point net favorability
rating that winning candidates have averaged since 1980.

Biden's now right around where he needs to be to match the winning candidate average in terms of popularity."


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mudhouse

Thanks for reposting this, Nana. I'm not reading all the threads currently.

I don't wade into polls very often, and maybe my task for today will be to do more reading, to understand how the favorability of a candidate differs in definition from the likelihood of a candidate's winning. And for that matter, what the difference is between favorability and approval (if any.)

I admit I often feel like I need to go find a "polling for dummies" primer. ;-)

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Nana H

The issue with Biden has been that while his personal favourability was low people were determined to vote for him anyhow because their primary motivation was to dump Trump. However, this significant change in favourability is seen as an indicator that people now have a reason to vote for Biden. not just against Trump.

ETA RCP does polls on both the favourability of Trump and his job approval. Favourability has more to do with how you view the man, approval how you view his handling of the job. Trump always polls higher on job approval than on favourability.

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Ann

"I'm not explaining it very well but here is an example of a 538 State chart for Wisconsin."

Here is a 3 month Wisconsin chart from RCP:


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Nana H

RCP .... 16 polls since June 1st

538...... 31 polls since June 1st

No matter, you really can't compare as they are apples and oranges. RCP is a continual rolling average and 538 is a current view. They have totally different data points.

There is no right or wrong, they are just different and I wouldn't bank on any of them.

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Ann

I believe RCP uses the latest 4 polls in their state averages, Nana. Depending on the state and how often they are polled, that's quite current for most states. State that are "givens" are polled far less frequently and 4 polls could go back a long way.

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Ann

Mudhouse, bottom line about the polls lately is they have been tightening. Once Labor Day happens (we're almost there) polls tend to tighten and they certainly have begun that process. Trump's RCP approval average is back up to 44 again too.

I also watch the betting markets and there has been a notable move there recently (especially in the last couple days). Here is a one month chart from predictit.


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Nana H

Ann, as I have said, it is a matter of preference if you like averages over multiple days and weeks that's great. I prefer the daily averages.

538 also seems to include a lot more polls. The last four polls that result in the 3.5 average on RCP goes back to August 7th. In that same period 538 included 9 polls.

It doesn't really matter...the only thing that matters is that when we quote different numbers it is because we are looking at polls that track the data in different ways.....it is not accuracy thing or a right vs wrong thing.

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mudhouse

Favourability has more to do with how you view the man, approval how you view his handling of the job. Trump always polls higher on job approval than on favourability.

Thanks Nana, I did do some more reading, including some past articles on 538. Personally I thought the mini-documentaries about Joe and Jill Biden were some of the most effective parts of the whole DNC convention. I would have been surprised if they hadn't had some impact on voters.

Right now I think most Americans (on both sides) agree that we're facing some serious problems. My guess is that people will put more emphasis on a candidate with a higher chance of getting elected, and a higher chance of being effective, than someone who seems likeable.

I'm thinking Biden is happy to have the increase in favorability, but his team can't think it's a good thing that he didn't get a bounce from the convention in terms of likely election outcomes. It'll be interesting to see if Trump gets any bounce.

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Ann

Trump has already gotten a bounce in the betting market and a big one. Biden got a tiny one last week.

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Nana H

Mudhouse, I agree that the favourability factor doesn't change the electability factor. However, I do believe it is important. Favourability is much more than likeability. Joe has always had very high likeability numbers.

Favourabilty has more to do with how they see the overall man. I think Joe cracked through the whole thing about him not being mentally competent and also showed his passion. It won't change who votes for him but it does shifts the vote from a straight vote against Trump to a vote for Biden AND against Trump. It shows the voters are more enthusiastic about Biden than maybe they have been.

As for Trump getting a bump , one that lasts, we'll see. It seems that there are so few undecideds and that the voters are so entrenched that I don't see much of a shift for either one of them but as I said...we'll see. Nothing surprises me anymore.

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Kathy

Truth is stranger than fiction

180,000 dead, massive deficits, 10% unemployment and a Hill Poll says 75% of Republicans say its better than 4 years ago? Whaaat!!!

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vgkg Z-7 Va(Z-7)

Everything seems better with a swig of kool-aid. That 75% are ignoring everything else that's going on except for their 401Ks. The 25% have their eyes open wider and it's a good sign that's it's no longer around 10%.

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mudhouse

I'm with you on this, Nana: Nothing surprises me anymore.

I think Joe cracked through the whole thing about him not being mentally competent and also showed his passion.

The well constructed videos about Joe helped him seem likeable, I think, but I don't agree that he's over the hurdle of questions about his competence. I'll reserve judgement on that until we get through the live debates, and hopefully, more press conferences. I'd be glad to put that issue to rest. I'd much rather be focusing on the differences between the two platforms, which are sizeable.

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Kathy

Several hundred former aides to Bush and McCain announced Thursday they are voting for Biden.

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Ann

Great news for Trump in Michigan this morning! Ten days ago, Biden had a 6.7 average lead in Michigan. This morning, Trump got his first single leading Biden poll in Michigan and the Biden lead is also now just 2.6.

The poll Trump has the lead in is Tralfalgar and they did an excellent job with swing state polling in 2016.

Then, even better is Tralfalgar has James barely leading that Senate seat in a single poll out today too. Peters has led in every poll until this one but the race has been tightening. If James could win Michigan, that would be a really nice flip!

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Nana H

Here is a different view. Some tightening from mid June - mid July but still a significant lead that has held steady since then. This is the second poll out of 49 that Trump has won since April...he may be on a roll!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/

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Ann

A 7.2 Biden lead vs a 2.6 Biden lead is huge. With discrepancies like these, one of these agencies has the chance of literally ruining their reputation this election. It will be very interesting to watch this play out.

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Ann

This is the RCP 3 month visual view of Michigan.



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Nana H

"A 7.2 Biden lead vs a 2.6 Biden lead is huge. With discrepancies like
these, one of these agencies has the chance of literally ruining their
reputation this election."

Ann, I thought we cleared this up. RCP does a rolling average so the number they use is an average of polls over the last four polls RCP tracks.

538 is a daily view and includes many more polls. They are totally different data points.

Biden is averaging 2.6 on RCP based on an average of 3 polls taken from the end of July until August 23rd.

Biden is ahead by 7.2 on 538 as of polls taken TODAY.

FYI 538 includes 7 polls in the same period of time as RCP only includes 3, so for some reason RCP excludes a lot of polls.

They are apples and oranges and can't be compared....not sure why you don't seem to understand the difference but clearly you don't.


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Ann

I have no clue what 538 is basing their average on. I'm not sure what you even mean by a daily view including many more polls (what if there was only one or two that day?). Let's say they only have one poll released on a given day - is that single poll the "average" until the next day when (say 3 polls are released) and that day's average is based on 3 polls? Is this your understanding????? If yes, do you know this to be the case - in that have you've calculated a few various days of released of polls to see if that matches what they call the average that day?

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Nana H

Ann, they are using two totally diferent sets of data points. Do your own research if you really care. As Rhett would say.......

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Ann

Okay, that's exactly the answer I figured:))))

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Ann

This is interesting from the Hill today:

"President Trump's support among black voters rose 9 percentage points amid the Republican National Convention, a new Hill-HarrisX poll finds.

Twenty-four percent of registered black voters in the Aug. 22-25 survey, which included the first two days of the convention, said they approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 76 percent said they disapprove.

That is up 9 points from the previous survey conducted Aug. 8-11, where the President received 15 percent support among this group."

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cattyles

I guess that was money well spent then.

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Nana H

Well maybe Trump can point to that one poll and talk about that instead of his ratings........seems that's about all that has gone well for him so far.

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justerrilynn(10)

Don’t worry! You dem’s get to keep the rioters and looters you paid for. You are the only ones who want to be associated with that. Every day the world gets to see your “management “ style.

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Toby

Join the GOP and we'll send you a Trump/Pence bumper sticker and tin foil hat for free!

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Kathy

Let’s get one thing clear.

I think rioters who commit a crime should be prosecuted.

I think police who commit a crime should be prosecuted.

I think Presidents who commit a crime should be prosecuted.

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Nana H

Well here is some good news for Trump supporters. Slight bump for Trump post convention although he still trails. Be interesting to see if it holds.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/29/post-rnc-poll-trump-bounce/

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elvis

Kathy

Let’s get one thing clear. I think rioters who commit a crime should be prosecuted.

Rioters "who" commit a crime? By definition, all rioters are committing at least one crime. Disorderly conduct at the very least.

riot

a violent public disorder specifically : a tumultuous disturbance of the public peace by three or more persons assembled together and acting with a common intent

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/riot

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Nana H

Too bad Ann isn' t around she would be WAY over the moon with the bump. I'm really surprised the other Trump supporters aren't celebrating this, it could be significant.

My guess Ann and I have succeeded in numbing the forum to polls and to this thread ! Can't say I blame them. LOL



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justerrilynn(10)

The polls are all over. I’m still not overly trusting of them after last time. This poll shows he is up 9 points from his previous registered black voters percentage. And, up 2 more points with Hispanic registered voters. However, he’s down a point....see here

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/514174-poll-trump-approval-rises-among-black-hispanic-voters

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Kathy

Elvis, I should have said I support protestors not rioters. Unless they commit a crime.

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Ann

The polls are all over. This from the link Nana posted (Morning Consult):

"Trump cut into Biden’s lead among suburbanites and grew his support among white voters, though he worsened his standing with voters of color"

Yet, this from the Hill-HarrisX:

"President Trump's support among black voters rose 9 percentage points amid the Republican National Convention, a new Hill-HarrisX poll finds"


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Ann

"Well here is some good news for Trump supporters"

Just about everything I'm seeing in polls and in the betting markets right now is good news for Trump. It has been positive for a couple weeks but it's been slow until now. Now, his positive trajectory is picking up steam just about everywhere you look. Biden is still leading nearly everywhere but that lead is most definitely lessening.

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Nana H

The polls are a fools panacea . Only fools feel confident in a Biden win. Remember 80K people, in three States , chose the President of the United States over the majority and it is MORE than possible it is going to happen again. His message of fear will resonate with those same 80K. I fear Trump is winning the anger message.

Wake up , his message of fear and anger and hatred is working where it needs to work!

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Ann

"His message of fear will resonate with those same 80K."

I think the message this year will be lawlessness. I've thought from just a few days after the Floyd death that the Dems made a calculated decision to try very hard to fire up a massive "systemic racism" narrative. While I don't think they considered, calculated or wanted the severe level of destruction that followed, it sure did follow and continues (and even grows) to this day.

Once the destruction and death escalated, the Dems tried to not acknowledge it (because they thought it would reflect badly on them and I think it certainly does). But, instead of backing away from the systemic racism narrative and doing all they could to stop the destruction - they stayed the course and kind of doubled down on their systemic racism narrative. Well, things got even worse and reached the point where no one could not see the destruction around the entire country. But then, Dems really blew it when they held their entire convention without a single mention of the worst thing happening in America at present. That opened such a wide open path for Republicans to be the voice of reason and Trump never held back or waivered on strongly offering and encouraging lawfulness. As usual, Biden and Dems are too late, too little and focused on the wrong (or dwindling) issues (e.g., closing down the country again for Covid) when there is a glaring issue Dems are still trying to tiptoe around. I think Dems have lately and are currently still - simply shooting themselves in the feet with their very own backfired issue. Days after the Floyd death I thought Dem's unwillingness to accept bipartisan agreement about that death would backfire and I think it certainly has. It's been a horrible and destructive mess that has come from that unwillingness to accept "agreement".

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justerrilynn(10)

Ann, you are brilliant! No nonsense wrap up!

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elvis

Nana H

...Remember 80K people, in three States , chose the President of the United States over the majority...

Is your prime minister elected by popular vote of the citizens of Canada, nana?


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Stan Areted

justerrilynn:

Don’t worry! You dem’s get to keep the rioters and looters you paid for. You are the only ones who want to be associated with that. Every day the world gets to see your “management “ style.


You betcha! Democrat U.S. Representative Maxine Waters gave Democrat supporters their marching orders and told them EXACTLY what to do:

"“Let’s make sure we show up wherever we have to show up and if you see anybody from that Cabinet in a restaurant, in a department store, at a gasoline station, you get out and you create a crowd and you push back on them, and you tell them they’re not welcome anymore, anywhere,” said Waters."

Her little sidekick Cory Booker gave marching orders, too "get up in their faces."

Booker said the way to get through to Congress is to “get up in the face of some congresspeople.” That call to action echoes his Democratic colleague Rep. Maxine Waters (Calif.) and others who have said Republican officials should face regular opposition in public.

“Before I end, that’s my call to action here. Please don’t just come here today and then go home,” Booker said. “Go to the Hill today. Get up and please get up in the face of some congresspeople.”


We see who encouraged and suggested the violence harassment that has been happening and escalating, and it's been encouraged and approved, directly or tacitly by Joe Biden, Kamala Harris-- neither have disavowed these directives have they?


One day someone is going to get up in the wrong face.

As it is, DEMOCRAT THUGS can do anything, not be arrested, or if they are immediately released. If anyone they accost and violate does so much as touch them or protect themselves, they are attacked, and/or arrested and lose everything they have with lawyers because THEY will be arrested.

As the attorneys in St. Louis.

This is indeed the most important election, ever in this country.

We will not survive this animal behavior, and there are those of us that won't tolerate it.

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Stan Areted

The polls are a changing. Ann, I saw the poll you referenced, I am not sure I read it same source, but my recollection was that hispanics had changed from Biden to Trump too, not a large number, but definitely switched sides after the RNC Convention. They just want to work and be safe and take their kids out to eat and shop, too, without screaming ninnies in their faces, impeding their movement, getting right up on them, threatening them yelling "I'll **** you up."

Attacking the elderly man, punching him on the ground, injuring him, that was only crossing the street to see the fireworks was horrible, horrible. ANOTHER THUG ANIMAL.

Yes, one day it will be the wrong person they encounter.

Or rather, the right one.

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Ann

Stan, I think another reason the polls are tightening is Trump is out there! Biden is now scheduled to go to 4 states after Labor Day and, like Trump, I wonder what Biden is waiting for. Why not this upcoming week, why not now? Biden just seems so reluctant to lead his campaign - as if he's resisting the campaign work, afraid of public appearances/questions, unmotivated, nervous, wimpy - or something. He's just not a person acting like he wants the job, deserves the job, is willing to work to win the election, or any of it. No wonder he lacks enthusiasm from his supporters since he doesn't even try to exude confidence and enthusiasm.

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elvis

I had to laugh at the expression on Kahmahlah's face when Joe said he'd like to go ahead and serve 2 terms!

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Ann

This is an interesting RCP chart I just stumbled across this morning. Trump is doing just a little better against Biden in these swing states right now than he was against Hillary at the same time in 2016. I think Biden is ahead in each of these states (I didn't check) but not as far ahead as Hillary was.


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Ann

Thought it would be best if I did check and here is how the swing states look. Other than Pennsylvania, it's a fairly close race in each. I see I accidentally cut off the timeframe, but this graph is a 30 day graph.


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Ann

Trump's RCP job approval gets back to 45 this morning. He's been a high as 47 (once, I think that was in March of 2020), but 45 is a high(ish) level for Trump's approval.

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Ann

Pennsylvania is the swing state Trump is most behind in. Monmouth released a new Pennsylvania poll today and it's a significant improvement for Trump since mid-July. This from Monmouth today:


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mudhouse

Ann, I was just reading about that, in this Philadephia Inquirer article.

The presidential race in Pennsylvania is now almost neck-and-neck after both parties’ national conventions, according to a new poll, with President Donald Trump gaining ground on Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

Biden leads Trump by 4 percentage points among registered Pennsylvania voters, 49% to 45%, a Monmouth University Polling Institute survey released Wednesday found. That’s down from a 13 percentage point advantage Biden held in Monmouth’s last Pennsylvania poll, in early July.

Among likely voters, the race is even closer.

Biden leads by 1 percentage point in a low voter turnout scenario, and by 3 in a high turnout model, Monmouth found. In July, Monmouth found Biden leading by 7 in a low turnout scenario, and 10 if voter turnout were high. It’s the first public survey of the state released after both parties pressed their cases to voters in nationally televised conventions in late August.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-presidential-race-in-pennsylvania-has-gotten-a-lot-closer-as-trump-gains-on-biden-poll-says/ar-BB18DVOX

And, we still have the presidential debates to go, unless team Biden tries to back out. Looks like some good movement in the polls for Trump.

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Nana H

Definitely some tightening since the Biden bounce in July but better than the pre and early Covid numbers. Will be interesting to watch.

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Ann

Mudhouse, thanks for that link. I hadn't seen that article yet.

By the way, speaking of debates, the debate moderators were announced today. Chris Wallace will moderate the first one. I think I'll go see if there is an existing thread about the debate moderator announcement - or I'll start one if not.

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elvis

Ann

Pennsylvania is the swing state Trump is most behind in. Monmouth released a new Pennsylvania poll today and it's a significant improvement for Trump since mid-July.

That's great news! Good way to start my day ;D

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Toby

Pollster Ann Selzer, known for her accuracy, has a new poll out. Trump is vastly underperforming with women, suburbanites, moderates, Independents, and college-educated voters. Even where he's leading, his margin is smaller than it was in 2016.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/514682-new-poll-shows-trumps-tough-path-to-reelection

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Ann

Toby, along that line, the Pennsylvania Monmouth poll talked about categories too. Among Pennsylvania men, Trump had a 2 point lead in July but now has a 19 point lead among men (huge change!). The Biden lead among women in Pennsylvania is very strong and has remained almost unchanged since July.

"Biden maintains a solid 59% to 35% lead among women (similar to 60% to 34% in July), but he has lost ground among men. They prefer Trump by 56% to 37%, compared with a much closer 47% to 45% margin in July."

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Ann

Looking further at the Monmouth Pennsylvania poll for other significant changes since July, here's another (a Biden lead of 31, dropping to just 9 among voters under 50):

"Biden maintains a lead among voters under age 50 (49% to 40%), but it is not as sizable as it was just over six weeks ago (60% to 29%).

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Iris GW

I sincerely hope that Biden supporters believe that Trump is gaining. That is the kind of information we need to push the voters. So, good news as far as I'm concerned. The last thing we want is for people to think Biden has it locked up.

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Nana H

Oh my Trump is going to be oh so cranky with his media arm...



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Kathy

Trump’s little bump is waning fast.

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Toby

I was just reading 538. They're going to discuss the new state polls tomorrow.

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Nana H

Sorry the screen shot is so blurry....here is a link to the site . Trump won' t be happy with Fox

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

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Ann

I agree Trump won't be happy with Fox (will question their polling methodology). Fox certainly had some outlier polls out today. Here is AZ (1st chart) nd NC (2nd chart) - all RCP August polls - as an example. The Fox polls are certainly out of sync with the others for the month.


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Nana H

Not that much of an outlier when you look at a more comprehensive list of polls.

Biden has polled between 7 and 10 in 6 out of the last 11 polls in AZ from July 30 to Aug 30th

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/


Biden has polled between 2 and 4 in 9 of the last 21 polls in NC , again July 30 to Aug 30th. He even scored a 10 in one poll....now that is an outlier.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/

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Ann

"6 out of the last 11" and "9 of the last 21"? Doesn't sound like we're getting too much consistency from these groups!

I don't use 538 because I think their website is dreadful. The way they post one poll after another from the same pollster on the same day (likely voters, registered voters, etc.) is just weird. Then, I have no idea if they are taking something like 4 polls from the same pollster on the same day and putting them all in an average. Also, as you've pointed out (wondered about), you'll suddenly see really old polls in the same list for some unknown reason. RCP is so much more straightforward, doesn't clutter their website with garbage (one pollster, 5 slightly different voter categories), posts an average in an obvious place in nearly every poll, doesn't overly reuse polls that poll more regularly than others (like Rasmussen) and doesn't apply their own bias adjustments (which I think is bizarre and downright funny on days when, for example, Trump is polling at 44 or so in the majority of polls and maybe really low in Rasmussen or Fox News that day - but then 538 adjusts the low outlier down by 4 or 5 more points (lol)).

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Nana H

"The way they post one poll after another from the same pollster on the
same day (likely voters, registered voters, etc.) is just weird"

Although they are the same pollster they are polling different people. This annoys you but a daily poll from Rasmussen is OK with you , something that annoys me. To each our own.

I ignore older polls the odd time they show up and I pretty much ignore National polls other than a glance and the approval polls fell off my radar quite sometime ago. To each our own. I prefer seeing the maximum number of State polls available. To each our own.

They have totally different ways of looking at the data but the overall trends are pretty much the same, Biden leads growing in June / July and tightening now. I don't consider one better than the other just different. I really don't understand a defensive position.

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Ann

This huge change at the end of this AZ chart seems to be 100% related to the single Fox News poll that came out last night. Some nice polls for Trump out today in Pennsylvania (noticeable tightening in that state lately) and in North Carolina.


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Ann

"Although they are the same pollster they are polling different people. This annoys you but a daily poll from Rasmussen is OK with you , something that annoys me. To each our own.

I ignore older polls the odd time they show up and I pretty much ignore National polls other than a glance and the approval polls fell off my radar quite sometime ago. To each our own. I prefer seeing the maximum number of State polls available. To each our own.

They have totally different ways of looking at the data but the overall trends are pretty much the same, Biden leads growing in June / July and tightening now. I don't consider one better than the other just different. I really don't understand a defensive position."

"defensive position" - lol:)

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Nana H


Not at all defensive, quite the opposite as expressed in this sentence.

"They have totally different ways of looking at the data but the overall trends are pretty much the same, Biden leads growing in June / July and tightening now. I don't consider one better than the othe, r just
different."

...... Just expressing why I prefer 538 while not at all trying to say that they are somehow better than RCP. I don't think it is better, that would be defensive,

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Ann

Oh, you crack me up:)))))))

I think RCP is MUCH better and there is no personality traits associated with preferring one website to another, one cruise line to another, one meal to another, etc. RCP is MUCH better and so is red wine much better than white. I can say all that with not an ounce of defensiveness about my preferences/likes/dislikes:) I'll go one step further and say I think conservative political views are far better than liberal views - but, Nana, I'll never say you or anyone doesn't have morals/ethics/values because you support a different candidate than I do. That would be highly inappropriate and anyone who would do that - is highly inappropriate!

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Ann

Catching up on some new polls today.

Quinnipiac has Biden up 3 in Florida in a new poll released today. Their (Quinnipiac's) most recent previous Florida poll was on 7/20, when Biden was up 13!

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Ann

In Pennsylvania, Rasmussen has a pretty big change since their last Penn poll. On 7/16, they had Biden at +5 and their new poll has Biden and Trump tied.

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Ann

Making a comparison of 5 battleground states from 7/29 (from up thread):

To now:

Four of the 5 on the two charts have improved quite a bit for Trump. Not so with AZ. Biden's lead has increased in AZ by quite a bit.

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elvis

Pretty interesting developments today, Ann. Thanks for the updates, as always. I'll tune in tomorrow.

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Ann

Trafalgar released a new Florida poll today with a Trump lead of 3 points over Biden. Last time Trafalgar posted a Florida poll was 2 months ago when they had the race a tie. The last time Trump had a single leading poll in Florida was in early March.

Rasmussen has Trump at 52% approval today, a level not reached since late February. Washington Examiner noted that this is a higher level than either GW or Obama had on the days they won reelection.

Both of these are excellent news for Trump this morning.

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Ann

A Economist/YouGov poll this week says 41% of Americans think protesters are mostly peaceful and 40% think they are mostly violent. I am surprised such a high percentage still view them as mostly peaceful. But, opinions have certainly changed. In early July, when the same poll was conducted, 54% said mostly peaceful and 31% said mostly violent.

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olliesmom

Biden going down!

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Kathy

I think most of the people at the protests are violent but I don’t think all of the violence is from the protestors. It depends on the interpretation of the question and how the actual question was asked.

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Ann

Olliesmom, despite some news media saying the conventions didn't change things, it certainly seems to me they did change things. Or, this violence is changing things. But, some polls are saying they think Biden would do a better job with violence and law and order than Trump, yet Trump is gaining on Biden in the polls this week in a noticeable way rather than the other way around.

In any case, the polls are tightening quite a bit in these swing states and in most cases (AZ is an exception), Trump is closing in and rather quickly and narrowing the Biden lead to very little. Polls typically tighten after Labor Day, but it looks like that process has started a little early this year.

I have a theory about the violence polling. I think Americans very much feel Trump is the law and order candidate but I also think Americans recognize the fury of the Dem party - thus think violence will continue if Trump wins. I'm wondering if Americans think the Republican party is the much less violent party (I think so) and would thus handle a loss with far less violence (I also think so). My theory goes one step further to say, should Trump win, I think the Dems are destroying their party with their fury and violence and if they don't get a grip on it and settle down their TDS - moving their attention to upcoming young candidates with a policy vision, they'll self destruct their own party for at least a few elections. It's far, far, far too much fury and too much violence for the average American to fathom and accept. Dem cities are crumbling and Dem leaders are allowing it to happen. Biden spent some of his day yesterday consoling Blake's father.

"Recent posts from Blake Sr. repeatedly accused "pink toed" Jews of controlling the media and financial institutions; characterized White people as “crackers” and labeled African-American Trump supporters as "coons."

On his Facebook page, Blake Sr. also expressed "100%" support for the Nation of Islam’s Louis Farrakhan."

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Kathy

Trump refuses to admit there are RW terrorists. Intelligence has been unable to get him to listen. Why? Because he is running on law and order. The truth is he is pouring gas on the fire because he knows his followers are on board with his framing the Dems and Antifa. It is because of his denial the chaos will continue.


I don’t see how anything Blake Sr. believes has anything to do with his son being shot. It’s irrelevant.

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olliesmom

Ann, I have thought about that too, that the violence could be so bad from the left when Trump wins. If it were the other way around, though, I think it might be the one thing that breaks the straw on the camels back, insofar, as we have kept our cool all this time.

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Toby

Ann Trafalgar released a new Florida poll today with a Trump lead of 3 points over Biden.

That was one Florida poll out of several that have been conducted in the past few days and all others show Biden leading. I don't know why you even look at Rasmussen. They'll always put Trump ahead and if he wins, they'll trumpet their accuracy.

Biden has two paths to 270 if he wins AZ:

FL & AZ = 272

MI, PA, & AZ = 279

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Ann

A new Harvard-Harris poll is out today, with Trump at 46% approval in that poll. Since the last one (in July) the race has tightened by 3 points (now 49 Biden, 42 Trump) and Trump's approval has improved by 3 points (now at 46 as mentioned in the first sentence). But, this is very interesting to me:

"The 9 percent of likely voters who say they are unsure about who they will vote for lean toward Trump by a 58- to 42-percent margin. When these leaning voters are included, Biden’s national lead narrows from 7 points to 6 points."

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Ann

" I don't know why you even look at Rasmussen. They'll always put Trump ahead and if he wins, they'll trumpet their accuracy."

Toby, the poll where Trump is leading by 3 points in Florida is Tralfalgar, not Rasmussen. The RCP average lead for Biden in Florida is currently 1.8.


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Ann

"Biden has two paths to 270 if he wins AZ:

FL & AZ = 272

MI, PA, & AZ = 279"

If I were to take a guess right now, I'd guess Trump will win Florida and one or both of MI and PA. I think it possible Biden will win AZ and the GOP will lose a Senate seat in AZ, but Trump has 8 weeks to work on winning AZ. I think McSally is less likely to win AZ than Trump is to win in AZ.

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Toby

You said BOTH of those polls were excellent news, one being Rasmussen, which is why I said it's not worth bothering with them because of their bias. I see what Trafalgar polled. It's another poll with a strong right bias, so if Trump wins, they too will trumpet their accuracy like they did in 2016.

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Ann

"You said BOTH of those polls were excellent news, one being Rasmussen, which is why I said it's not worth bothering with them because of their bias. I see what Tralfagar polled. It's another poll with a strong right bias, so if Trump wins, they too will trumpet their accuracy like they did in 2016."

Toby, since the very task of a poll or pollster is to correctly gauge the current state of a race as accurately as possible, whichever pollsters correctly predicted 2016 and whichever pollsters correctly predict 2020 are the best of the bunch. Any pollster who gets the closest should tout their accuracy!!!!

Obviously, by their very nature, the pollsters with a bias that throws off their results are the ones that get it wrong - not the ones that get it right. If Trump wins, those who correctly predicted that win will be the accurate polls. Same applies if Biden wins.

Is your comment trying to say that if a pollster is not among the majority pack when the pack ends up wrong and the loner ends up right - that somehow being in the pack represented a better (or less biased) pollster? If so, that's completely illogical to me.

Of course those who get it right (whether the election win goes to Trump or to Biden) will trumpet their accuracy - because they will have done the best job of performing the function of their job - even if the outcome of the election ends up not appealing to some:)

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Ziemia(6a)

The task of a pollster is to make money. IF their approach / method keeps getting them contracts within one election cycle they will continue with it.

And they all know how to explain their record after the election. Then 2 years later, they explain how they fixed everything. And so they continue.

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Toby

If they consistently have a right bias and the races consistently go blue, we'd call them an inaccurate poll. If there is an anomaly like there was in 2016, they then luck out and become accurate for that one race. That doesn't mean they're an accurate pollster.

National polls and approval polls like Rasmussen do not predict who might win the election. I know they can use those numbers to make predictions though.

In 2016, the polls were accurate in predicting Hillary's popular vote win but they missed the mark in the state polls, which is what wins elections. Pollsters were caught by surprise by not polling uneducated, first-time voters who turned out for Trump. There also weren't enough state polls, especially in the last week, when they missed that the race had tightened after Comey mistakenly announced they'd found more of Hillary's emails. That won't happen again this time--pollsters learned their lesson.

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Kathy

Prepare for Nov surprise. Barr and Trump are hard at work figuring that one out.

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elvis

Pollsters were caught by surprise by not polling uneducated, first-time voters who turned out for Trump.

Those darned commoners!

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Ann

Well, we made it to serious election season (the day after Labor Day). Tomorrow morning, the fun really begins. We should be seeing Trump and Biden nearly every day and all over the country. The ads will overwhelm the swing states and the polls should be really plentiful, including state polls.

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elvis

I'm screening my calls!

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Ann

Not too much polling info out yet today, but these two new polls are positive for Trump. As AZ has been deteriorating for Trump, PA has been improving noticeably. RCP has Missouri as a toss up state, but I don't see it that way. I think it's a pretty safe Trump bet.


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Ann

Nice, NBC just released a new Florida poll - they have it a tie.

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elvis

Let's see. Week before last they did the Post Office thingie, last week it was the Losers thingie. This week will probably be the Cohen thingie. It's always something!

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Ann

Love this new Florida poll. Fox News is now talking all about it.

IMO, Trump should go to PA, MI, WI, Fla, MN, NC and AZ at least 5 times each over the next 55 days. Time to move into his serious energizer mode and I have no doubt he will!

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Toby

Yesterday's CBS poll has shown that Trump and his followers are making no inroads with his scare and fear tactics, elvis, not even in the suburbs. He needs a new thingie too.

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vgkg Z-7 Va(Z-7)

Let's see. Week before last they did the Post Office thingie, last week it was the Losers thingie. This week will probably be the Cohen thingie. It's always something!

Let's see?........ Yes, see "they" as trump and his syndicate and you got it.

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Iris GW

Maybe this week he should spout off about kids and schools and how he thinks the democrats are holding them back. Or is that not scary enough?

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Nana H

Additional Florida polls today show a Biden lead. Actually, Florida, Iowa, Georgia and North Carolina are all tight. Wisconsin, Arizona and Michigan not so much. My prediction is a Biden landslide or a Trump squeak.

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Ann

Yeah, Biden has a lead in Florida (1.4). Here is a 3 month chart.


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Ann

I'll agree WI and AZ are looking good for Biden right at this time, but I'd certainly place Michigan in the tight category. Here is a 3 month chart for Michigan.


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Ann

Looking at both the Florida and Michigan charts I just posted, there is no doubt which candidate has the current upward momentum in those two states (and which candidate has current downward momentum).

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Nana H

As I said Florida, Iowa, Georgia and North Carolina are all tight. Remind me who won them in 2016. Seems to me Trump has a lot more to worry about than PA, WI and Mi.

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Iris GW

Georgia should not be tight for Trump ... he's not doing well if it is. Or maybe a bunch of blue states folks moved there to turn it purple.

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Nana H

RCP hasn't included an MI poll since Aug 23 rd. Here is some current polling.



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Ann

Whoa, here is some really good news for Trump out of that Florida poll! In 2016 exit polls, Latinos were voting 35% Trump and 62% Clinton. In this brand new NBC poll Latinos are breaking 50% for Trump and 46% for Biden.

Unfortunately for Trump, Florida seniors are now 48 Trump and 49 Biden. In 2016, they were 57 Trump and 40 Clinton.

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Toby

Florida is the only state he can expect those numbers from Latinos. Seniors on the other hand....

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Toby

This looks like a good article on the battleground states, with links to profiles of each state.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/08/swing-states-2020-presidential-election-409000

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Nana H

Would be interesting to know which Latinos. Biden wasn't wrong when he said Latinos have very different views depending on their life experiences. Cuban Latinos have a very different perspective than Mexican and Central American Latinos , then there are Puerto Rican Latinos. None the less, in Florida it could be a real issue.....Arizona not so much.

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Iris GW

Of course it would also be amusing if Latinos are faking the pollsters to make it seem like Trump has their support. I remember several conservative members of this forum saying they would do something similar (faking their answers).

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Ann

Lol - only in Florida but not Latinos in other states, which Latinos, from where?, they're faking the pollsters. Lol - best comments of the day (but not singly - great as the trio) :)

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Nana H

?????

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Kathy

My grands start school this week in Mi. We will see how that goes. The area they are in is rural and has a very low Covid rate mostly from summer tourists.

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Ann

Several new state polls out today from CNBC. No big changes from their last set, but up about one point for Biden in some of them from their last release.

Biden is now 1 point above where Clinton was in the battleground state comparison - same date.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/

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Ziemia(6a)

"Lol - only in Florida but not Latinos in other states, which Latinos, from where?"

They are all the same, culturally, economically, etc?

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cattyles

I have a feeling there might be some change in the polls after today.

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Nana H

Listening to Biden right now on manufacturing jobs.......lots of passion and energy and he hasn't lost his balance once. This is his third or fourth policy speech...has Trump made one yet? All I hear from him is about rigged elections......

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Ann

North Carolina polls have been encouraging for Trump lately, but other polls are staying fairly stable in recent days.

But, Perino was saying last night that this Cook Report news is new (and kind of important) news. I didn't really see it that way when I heard what her news was after the commercial break, but then CNN is covering it today too. Still seems somewhat blah to me but it is getting some coverage.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/11/politics/donald-trump-joe-biden-electoral-college/index.html

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Ann

I guess the Nevada part is interesting, but I'm not really seeing that state as likely to flip red. Maybe, but doesn't seem likely.

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Ann

I ran across this little chart on RCP today. I actually don't know how to get to this chart (which tab takes one to it), but sometimes it will show up on a screen about state polling or another random place when I'm perusing poll data. Today it showed up when I was looking at Nevada. Anyway, I have a progression of this data and want to line them up.

First 7/29

Next - 8/10 (I obviously couldn't get to the chart that day and had to get the individual numbers one by one)

Next - today (9/11)

So in 6 weeks time, Biden's national lead has ranged between about 7 and 8.5, first decreasing and then increasing a little.

North Carolina is nicely progressing toward Trump with only a tiny Biden lead now.

Same thing with Florida - with an even bigger (6 point) reduction in Biden's lead.

Wisconsin is the opposite, showing Biden increasing his lead.

Same with AZ, Trump gained a little in the middle but is now at his worst point of the three charts.

Biden is losing some ground in PA, more with each chart.

The generic ballot is tightening a bit.

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elvis

Thanks for the update, Ann!

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Ann

A good amount of state polling released this morning. Some kind of noteworthy things to me (as I dig into this new group a bit):

538 gives Siena an A+ rating, so clearly thinks of them as an excellent pollster.

Interesting to see both Nevada and New Hampshire in this list, as polling in both states has been minimal compared to the others. Nevada and NH were blue states in the previous 3 presidential elections (less blue with each one and NH was just about a tie in 2016 - with Clinton prevailing).

McSally has been really struggling in the AZ polls, with this being one of her better polls lately. She's still far behind in her average in that Senate race.


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Ann

Speaking of Nevada, Trump is on his way there right now and then to AZ on his way home (maybe not today as I think he might have several Nevada events scheduled over a couple days - but not sure). I saw a clip of quite a lot of excited supporters awaiting his Nevada arrival.

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Ann

The data within this new poll is quite interesting, I think. Lots of things about it interested me. Here is just one (click on it to blow it up big enough to easily read). I've linked the poll data if you want to check it all out. Whites, Hispanics, and veterans think Trump will win. Blacks, non-whites and seniors (by a tad) think Biden will win.



https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/09/Fox_September-7-10-2020_Complete_National_Topline_September-13-Release.pdf

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Nana H

Too bad they didn't ask why.....

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Ann

Poll data is indicating to me that the Hispanic vote is really going to play a huge role in the outcome of the 2020 election. If looking at the data within this poll, Hispanics are especially motivated to vote this year!

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Toby

In that Fox poll, 46% of voters have a strongly unfavorable view of Trump. 32% have a strongly unfavorable view of Biden. Trump's favorable rating is the lowest of all four presidential and VP candidates.

Trump said last night he was now going to get vicious in his attacks on Biden. What effect do you think that strategy will have on Trump's and Biden's favorability ratings?

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vgkg Z-7 Va(Z-7)

trump was born "vicious", exactly what change would we notice? Vicious is pretending there was nothing to worry about concerning CV-19 and allowing people to die for his re-election efforts.

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Nana H

It is important to understand that there is a very big difference in Hispanics depending on their backdground and life experiences. Cuban Americans have a very different political view than Mexican Americans.

The poll you reference shows that Hispanics are very eager to vote but it also shows that 57% of Hispanics would vote for Biden 41% for Trump. So the reason they are eager to vote is important to understand.

I suspect, but don't know, that if you drill down on the State level polls you may find higher Trump support in Florida but less in Arizona, Nevada and Texas. As it is I believe Biden still holds a slim lead in Florida...or at least he did in early September.

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Nana H

Did a really quick look at recent Florida and AZ polls on the Hispanic vote.....

You Gov poll today shows AZ 62% Biden 27% Trump ( Largely Mexican Americans)

St Petes FL poll Sep 10th Biden 53% Trump 41% ( Largely Cuban Americans)

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Toby

Bloomberg is putting 100 million into Florida for Biden.

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vgkg Z-7 Va(Z-7)

"Cuban Americans have a very different political view than Mexican Americans."

If trump had caged up Cuban children they may have a different perspective.

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Ann

"In that Fox poll, 46% of voters have a strongly unfavorable view of Trump. 32% have a strongly unfavorable view of Biden. Trump's favorable rating is the lowest of all four presidential and VP candidates."

Yes, I went to grab that info. You are correct. But from the same data and kind of interestingly, even though his favorability is the lowest of the 4, his strong favorability is the highest of the 4. Favorability has always been a weak category for Trump and nearly always lower than his job approval, as it is yet again in this new poll.


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Ann

When I was looking into the data again, based on Toby's "favorability" comment, I noticed this. This is an area where Trump and Biden got very close (as to who would do a better job) to the same (in July when they were just 1 point apart), but the Trump advantage on this has now grown again (to 8 points) in just a couple months.


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Ann

"The poll you reference shows that Hispanics are very eager to vote but it also shows that 57% of Hispanics would vote for Biden 41% for Trump."

Agreed. Trump got 28-29% of the Hispanic vote in 2016. If Trump were to get 41% this time, that would be a very significant increase. And, yes, that will vary from state to state. But, the 28% is a "national" number as is the 41% in this poll.

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Ann

"Bloomberg is putting 100 million into Florida for Biden."

Understandable. Here is a 3 month chart of Florida.


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Nana H

Seems to me Trump better do the same given he is behind. Does he even have that kinda money left? Trump has an awful lot of States he needs to do better than he is in, he is losing or virtually tied in at least 8 States he won in 2016.....that's lots of bucks.


Edited

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Ann

Sounds like Trump might be short on money but, my goodness, did that ever turn out not to matter in 2016. I know you disagree, but IMO there is a heck of a lot in 2020 looking like 2016.

Biden seems to be well funded from ActBlue and ActBlue is a rather interesting story:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/exclusive-data-shows-that-half-of-2019-donations-to-actblue-came-from-untraceable-unemployed-donors

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Toby

Right, 34% say they have a strongly favorable opinion of Trump. That's his base. All the Trump supporters on this forum fall into that group. About a third of voters have always supported everything he says and does. But he struggles with raising it much above about 40%. There are not many voters left for him to bring on board. I don't understand why he won't broaden his appeal. He is putting his eggs in one basket--turn-out of almost everyone in his base.

Looks like Biden is improving in Florida.

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Nana H

I may be mistaken but I think money was only an issue for Trump in the 2016 primary. Once he was the candidate the RNC coffers kicked in. Nonetheless sure does
seem like the Republican money machine and private donations are drying up. Wonder why?

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Ann

Just saw this article about Bloomberg and Florida.

"The multi-million-dollar injection of cash from Bloomberg, who was among the Democrats who vied for the party's presidential nomination, will be spent through Democratic groups, including Bloomberg's Independence USA, and used to turnout voters for Biden in the Sunshine State. A spokesperson for Bloomberg said a key part of the strategy is communicating with Hispanic voters."

"The Cook Political Report moved Florida last week from "lean Democrat" to "toss up," and recent polls show Biden struggling with Hispanic voters."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/michael-bloomberg-pledges-100-million-to-help-biden-in-florida/ar-BB18ZDF9?ocid=msedgdhp

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vgkg Z-7 Va(Z-7)

If Biden wins Fla it's game over, $100 Mill just might do it. Bloomy knows that Fla is the real Keystone state today.

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Kathy

Prepare for a big push of voter suppression by Trump and R-DeSantis in Florida at the polls. Long lines, broken machines, no record of voter, mistaken counts and if all else fails bribe the electoral representatives.

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Toby

New CBS polls out from Arizona and Minnesota. Biden leads by 3 in AZ. He gets 62% of the Hispanic vote in AZ to Trump's 27%. Biden's up 9 in Minnesota, which Trump considers a pick-up state.

Lots of questions about the protests show that Trump and his followers' false rhetoric isn't making inroads on voters. It only further inflames the situation so I think it's time you all drop it and find something new to win over those voters.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-trump-poll-arizona-minnesota-09-14-2020/

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Ann

New Hill-HarrisX poll out today and looks like the senior lead Biden has been enjoying might be fading - a lot according to this info. This from the Hill today. The %/pts thing is weird but I didn't write it:)

"What America's Thinking: September 15, 2020

WHAT AMERICA'S THINKING: SEPTEMBER 15, 2020, 9/15/2020

On today's What America's Thinking, a new Hill-HarrisX 2020 poll shows Joe Biden's lead among senior voters has dropped from 10% pts. to 1% pts within a few weeks. Overall, President Trump trails Biden by 6 points nationally. Democratic pollster and CEO & Partner of Schoen Cooperman Research, Carly Cooperman, and Republican pollster and Partner of Public Opinion Strategies, Jim Hobart, join Hill TV to discuss. This survey was conducted online within the United States from September 10 - 14 among 3,758 registered voters by HarrisX. The sampling margin of error of this poll is plus or minus 1.60 percentage points. The results reflect a nationally representative sample of registered voters. Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, income, political party, and education where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population."

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Ann

Toby, that's a good poll for Trump in AZ. He's been struggling there and a Biden lead of 3 is a much smaller lead than other polls are showing.

ETA: I just checked and I'm kind of wrong about that. Here are the AZ polls since the beginning of August and Biden+3 isn't nearly as unusual as I thought:


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Toby

I think a good starting point is understanding how polls work. I learned a few new things from this article. Pew is also one of the best places to learn about the electorate.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/05/key-things-to-know-about-election-polling-in-the-united-states/

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Ann

More and more polls coming out recently.

Today, Trump still struggling in AZ but McSally looking just a bit better lately and, yesterday, RCP moved that Senate race back from lean Dem to the toss up category. Then, there are several potential flips from GOP to Dem. There is one highly likely flip the other way (Alabama) and Michigan is one I'm watching very closely as a potential GOP to Dem flip.

Today, Trump gets 53% approval in Rasmussen and I think it's the first time and highest ever. The approval average sits is at 45% (a nice level for Trump).

NC is now less than 1 point between Trump/Biden and considered a tie. PA has become extremely important to both candidates.

Things are getting very interesting. At this point, a landslide in either direction would be a surprise to me. I still think Trump will be able to pull off this year but I certainly don't think it will be with ease. The national poll still has Biden in the lead (now with a 5.9 Biden lead).


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Iris GW

There is one highly likely flip the other way (Alabama)

Yeah, that result is expected. I doubt Dems are putting any money in that race.

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Nana H

I'm still of the opinion it will either be a Biden landslide or a Trump squeaker.

Given Biden is ahead in 6 States Trump won in 2106 and competitive in an additional 4 States Trump won with significant margins, I'm starting to feel much more comfortable with a Biden win.

Ten States that Trump won in 2016 now in play for Biden is significant in my mind. However, not ready to make any predictions....so much can happen, and likely will, between now and November 3rd.

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Toby

That's interesting about the AZ Senate race because the Cook Political Report moved AZ to lean Democrat yesterday. This is the Report that Trumpers were crowing about last week for moving Florida from leans Democrat to toss-up and Nevada from likely Dem to leans Dem.

The Cook Political Report shifted the presidential race in Arizona toward Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden on Thursday after a new poll showed the former vice president opening up a 5-point lead over President Trump in the state.

The election handicapper’s decision to move Arizona from its toss-up column
to “lean Democrat” came amid mounting signs that the state is slipping
away from Trump despite his narrow 3.5-point win there four years ago.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/516842-cook-political-report-moves-arizona-to-lean-dem-in-biden-trump-race

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Ann

Correction from my recent post about Trump's 53% approval on Rasmussen today. Obviously from this Rasmussen tweet today, he has reached this level before and I thought it was his highest ever when I posted earlier.


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Nana H

I can understand the need to search out any positve news on Trump. It is few and far bewteen these days and this poll is a major outlier but heck take what you can get!

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Kathy

Trump has sent all his kids to campaign in Az. He should never have badmouthed McCain because a lot of voters there were loyal to McCain.

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elvis

Funny.

chase_gw

Latest 538....

Polls only

82 Clinton - 18 Trump

Now Cast

86.4 Clinton - 13.6 Trump

........ just sayin'


ETA Interesting is that the Now Cast just turned Arizona blue

October 9, 2016 at 4:04PM

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HU-400972298

Ann, when adjusted for how Trump was doing in the polls at this point in the election vs. Hillary in 2016, he's further ahead of Biden in 2020.

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Nana H

I get optimism. It' s a good thing. One thing is for sure , four years from now I certainly won' t be spending my time trying to find posts from Trump supporters four years earlier expressing their opinions on how they thought things would turn out. What a waste of time and energy . .....among other things.

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Ann

That's a great post from the past, Elvis! That brought a smile:)

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Ann

HU298, actually Biden is doing a bit better (1.8 better) against Trump than Clinton was in the top battlegrounds on the same (Sept 17) date in 2016.

But, as you can see in the national Trump/Clinton chart, this date (mid-September) was one when Clinton and Trump were especially close in 2016. In mid-October, Clinton's lead grew to over 7 points, before it finally finished at Clinton up 3.2 at the very end.



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Iris GW

Biden supporters need to be concerned not confident. Every vote for Biden counts, assume nothing!

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Toby

Fewer undecided voters than in 2016 has Biden approaching the magic number of 50% nationally and in key battleground states.

In most of the 13 swing states identified by POLITICO — those rated as toss-ups or just leaning toward one party in our Election Forecast — Biden is not only outperforming Clinton in terms of the margin between him and Trump, his average vote share is also greater than Clinton’s was at this point four years ago.

Biden leads in 10 of the 13 states, according to RealClearPolitics
averages, trailing Trump only in Georgia, Iowa and Texas. In Sept. 2016,
Clinton also trailed in Arizona, Florida and Ohio.

In addition to nearing 49 percent in Florida, Biden is at 49.2 percent
in Arizona, 47.8 percent in Michigan, 51.6 percent in Minnesota, 48
percent in New Hampshire, 49 percent in Pennsylvania and just over 50
percent in Wisconsin.

Victories in those states, where Biden's lead over Trump is at least 4
points, would clinch the presidency for the former vice president even
if Trump won the other swing states. In fact, if Biden won Arizona,
Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he could
afford to cede Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio — each of which
he leads right now — and still become the next president.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/18/joe-biden-polls-electoral-college-417880

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Ann

This is good news from Trump in the brand new Hill-HarrisX poll.

"The president remains underwater with Black voters, but the poll found his support has grown among the key voting bloc.

Trump was approved by 19 percent of Black voters in a study conducted Sept. 5-8. That number increased 6 points to 25 percent in the most recent survey.

Support among White and Hispanic voters held steady, at 55 and 37 percent, respectively."

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Ann

A bunch of new polls out today on RCP. The best for Trump are the various ABC/WaPo polls and some of them are very encouraging. Here is a very detailed article about this set of new ABC polls. Lots of interesting info in this article.


https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trust-economy-bolsters-trump-close-florida-arizona-poll/story?id=73167150

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Ann

Trump's lead on the economy is expanding lately, especially in Florida and AZ.

"The economy stands out as key to Trump's competitiveness. Even in the midst of a pandemic-fueled recession, registered voters in Florida trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy by 11 points, 52%-41%, and in Arizona by 15 points, 56%-41%. Preference on the economy was more closely divided in ABC News/Washington Post polls in Wisconsin (Trump +5) and Minnesota (Biden +3) last week."


Then, in Florida and AZ, the economy is certainly viewed as the single most important issue. Clearly, the goal of Biden and Dems has been to keep very heavy focus on Covid, but it seems they are struggling a bit to keep that topic as front and center as they hoped. Honestly, I think people all around the world have tired of thinking of Covid constantly and most have figured out how to live with it in terms of social distancing, face masks and such. It's feeling kind of like it's part of daily routine now and not something most are constantly thinking about or fearing. That's certainly true in my life.



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Iris GW

Clearly, the goal of Biden and Dems has been to keep very heavy focus on Covid, but it seems they are struggling a bit to keep that topic as front and center as they hoped. Honestly, I think people all around the world have tired of thinking of Covid constantly and most have figured out how to live with it in terms of social distancing, face masks and such. It's feeling kind of like it's part of daily routine now and not something most are constantly thinking about or fearing.

Well, except for those darn people who keep dying.

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catspa_zone9sunset14

And, in a couple of weeks, there it will be again. Infection rates rising again in the U.S., predictably.

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mudhouse

Well, except for those darn people who keep dying.

Any loss of life is a bad thing.

If you missed it, I said that any loss of life is a bad thing.

But the truth is, we know now that Covid19 is going to cost lives, but it won't be the end of the country, or the end of humans on earth. For the majority, life will go on.

Any loss of life is a bad thing.

But the truth is, people who survive Covid19 can't stop living their lives because of those who will not. People don't stop living their lives after a war, either. Focusing on the economy is what people do when they realize that life will go on, and that there are families to be housed and fed, businesses to be saved, minds to be educated. Those polls about the importance of issues make complete sense to me, in that regard. It does not mean that people have no regard for the lives lost to Covid.

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Iris GW

Any loss of life is a bad thing.

Any preventable loss of life is a worse thing. Trump is not leading and he hopes that Americans don't notice: Honestly, I think people all around the world have tired of thinking of Covid

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Nana H

The economy and Covid containment are inextricably linked. If you are out of work because of Covid, which do you care more about the economy or Covid?

Life can never get back to normal, the economy can never seriously recover until Covid is brought under control. Kids can never get back to school and parents back to work until Covid is under control.

I think voters will put the entire package together in their minds. How it will turn out I have no idea but I do know that people are very unhappy with how things ARE and generally that reflects poorly on the person in charge of the situation and that is Trump.

Unfortunately, it seems as if things are going to get a whole worse before they get better....the economy and Covid.

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Kathy

Why is Trump so against masks when it is one of the best methods to get back to a semblance of normality? The younger kids in school are adapting. Humans are resilient and the sooner we learn we can handle this if we are prudent and safety conscious the sooner we can move forward with confidence. At this rate Trump is using the virus to divide Americans which might actually be his main concern.

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Nana H

Kathy, that is something I just don't get. We all want to get back to normal, we all want the economy to start to recover .......why not do all we can absent a vaccine? Why not encourage the population to work together to contain instead of denying and quite frankly contributing to the spread? There is something really wrong in that man's head.

Trudeau is going to formally address the nation tonight, something rarely done by any PM except during critical times. It is said he will be talking directly about how we all, especially the young people, have to do out part so that things don't accelerate once again.

Yes we are all tired of it, and yes, we are getting Covid weary but a significant resurgence is the last thing we need economically and socially.

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Ann

I completely agree with your entire comment Mudhouse.

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Ann

"Life can never get back to normal, the economy can never seriously recover until Covid is brought under control. Kids can never get back to school and parents back to work until Covid is under control."

Actually Nana, in many a country, kids are finally getting back to school, even with Covid quite active or increasing (as it is in your country too). Especially the younger ones. They are going a bit slower with opening full time/in person for those in middle school and high school, but lots of grade school kids are getting back in school (and this is true around the world).

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Ann

"Trudeau is going to formally address the nation tonight, something rarely done by any PM except during critical times. "

How do throne speeches usually go? Are they typically not to the "nation"?

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Ann

Oh, I just googled and see it's following his throne speech. His address to the nation will be 15 minutes. If he has a lot to say, I hope he's capable of speaking very, very quickly.

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Nana H

Ann, perhaps we have a different perspective, bit of an understatement, but no way kids are getting back to school at anywhere near what anyone could call normal. Even when back in school it is a very challenging situation on many fronts and as cases escalate it is likley schools will be up and down like a toilet seat. It is a terrible situation , no where near normal and won' t be until this virus is made manageable.

It is more than Pollyannish to look at how things are going in schools and think it' s going just fine...it' s not.

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Nana H

" I hope he's capable of speaking very, very quickly"

Not only quickly but intelligently....and in two languages.

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Iris GW

Hmm, it's September, kids are getting back to school and now cases are increasing again .... any connection there?

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Ann

"Trudeau is going to formally address the nation tonight, something rarely done by any PM except during critical times. It is said he will be talking directly about how we all, especially the young people, have to do out part so that things don't accelerate once again."

Really, a PM doesn't address the nation for even 15 minutes, except rarely? Reading your comment, it sounded especially important. I find it so hard to believe a 15 minute talk to the nation is rare. How did it go?

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Ziemia(6a)

For many, Covid-19 is a horrible way to die. My "want" is to have my country reduce the number of those suffering the horribleness of it.

If this had been better led - the closures and restrictions would have been less disruptive.

PS - comparing surviving this Pandemic to surviving a war - is telling.

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Nana H

Ann, formal, prime time addresses to the nation from the West Block PM's office are rare and saved for especially important matters. I think the same is generally true of formal Oval office addresses.

"An Address to the Nation is a speech made from the White House by the President of the United States. It is traditionally made from the Oval Office.[1]
It is considered among the most solemn settings for an address made by
the President, and is most often delivered to announce a major new
policy initiative, on the occasion of a President's departure from
office, or during times of national emergency (natural disaster, war,
etc.
).[1]"

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Kathy

Trump uses press conferences for his personal propaganda forum. That is another norm he has shattered. Even his UN address was all about himself, nothing to help the UN solve problems. He is abnormally self absorbed.

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Ann

Nana, how do you think the day went for Trudeau? The comments section about Trudeau in Canadian articles (when allowed and the "not allowed" part seems to draw some very deep criticism from some Canadians) is often as blistering toward Trudeau as it is toward Trump in the U.S.. But for different reasons - Trudeau is clearly viewed by many as a huge leftist who will financially break the country.

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Ann

I think this was the video I was watching last night and, as I mentioned, the comments about Trudeau were blistering.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX-m2iN4rz0

ETA: This link I just attached is interesting in that last night, it was the link where I watched about half of Trudeau's 15 minutes (7 minutes or so in English and 7 or so in French) address to the nation (I got bored after half of it). Today, it's been replaced with an interesting panel discussion of the address (and throne speech), but the comments section is the same (and quite interesting too). Nana the man in the panel had the same views as I was discussing about Covid yesterday on a different thread. He too thinks people are "bored" with it in that they know the suggestions of hand washing, social distancing, and mask wearing. That reminds me of what I said yesterday about people not wanting to talk about and fear Covid like the world did months ago. Many people are living their lives with the masks, social distancing, and hand washing, but Covid is no longer their number one focus. As the poll showed in this thread, at least in Florida and AZ, the economy is.

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Nana H

There are two separateissues here. One is the Throne Speech/agenda and the other is the call for all Canadians to do what we need to do to keep Covid from resurging.

Most of those comments seem to be directed at the Throne Speech and the proposed agenda for this session. I don't know the breakdown but I would say most Canadians, including me, think we have spent enough and need to get our budget back under control. On the other hand, most Canadians, including me, feel he has done a very good job managing the pandemic.

The Liberals have a minority government so Trudeau can shoot high but he will have to make major concessions in order to stay in power. One huge advantage of a minority government, they have to work together or face another election.

As far as the Covid issue, Trudeau did a fabulous job of encouraging Canadians to work together to keep Covid under control. He was honest, straightforward and encouraging.

ETA I was very disappointed with O'Toole's response. I was hoping he would give me some reason to support him but he didn't.

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Ann

Nana, we overlapped. I was adding a long ETA section to my comment because I realized the video I linked was no longer Trudeau's address to the nation. I enjoyed the panel discussion much more than Trudeau's address, though.

Frankly, I can't imagine you supporting O'Toole, so your ETA is absolutely no surprise to me.

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Nana H

I can't imagine why you can't imagine me supporting O'Toole. What do you know about O'Toole that would cause me not to vote for him? I did not vote for Trudeau last election and I likely won't next election.

I think they changed to the panel because those comments were related to the Throne Speech not the PM's address.

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Ann

O'Toole is the person I'd support if I were a Canadian and Trump is the person I support as an American. You and I share practically no policy wishes for our own countries, Nana. In case posters wonder what O'Toole had to say about the throne speech:


https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/erin-otoole-throne-speech-2020-response-transcript/

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Ann

This certainly reminded me of another country and leader south of yours, Nana:

"Canada’s foreign policy must be built on our interests and values. I believe in free trade, but I also believe in fair trade where countries follow the rules—free trade amongst free and democratic countries. For far too long. Canada has paid a high price for trade with communist China. The price has been too high for Canadian access to safe, reliable PPE in a pandemic. The price has been also too high for many Canadian workers."

ETA: From reading the O'Toole response and definitely from reading the comments in the youtube link I attached a few comments up, I think Canada is far more politically divided than I previously thought. There are actually a fair number of parallels to what the U.S. division was like about 5 years ago.

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Nana H

Ann, I asked you what made you think, actually could not imagine, that I would not vote for O'Toole.

You may be surprised, although you shouldn't be because I have said it many. many times, I agree with the Conservatives, for the most part, on economic policy. I also hold integrity and honesty in high regard. Upholding Canadian valuyes is very important to me.

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Ann

Nana, if Canada does end up having a spring election, I'll pay far more attention to specifics about O'Toole (and hope he wins). Frankly, that election would be quite interesting to me, if it should occur. For now, I'll leave it at saying I see as much likelihood of a liberal like you supporting O'Toole as I'd guess you see in a conservative like me supporting Biden:)

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Nana H

That is where you are dead wrong. Clearly, you didn't pay much intention to what I posted leading up to our last election and during the Conservative leadership race or discounted it in favour of your own biased opinions of me.

I would have voted Conservative hands down had Peter McKay been chosen, leader. So far what I have seen of O'Toole makes me think he is way too much like Harper for my liking. I'll be watching him closely and if I see what I need to see I will vote Conservative because at this point voting Liberal is not an option for me.

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Ann

Nana, if you care to start a thread about Canada and Trudeau's throne speech, I'll certainly join in. Or, I might start one myself, but I doubt I will because the U.S. has my attention at present with all our very big news and happenings. But, as I said, should Canada end up having a spring election, I think you'll find my interest to be quite high. For example, I'd simply love to watch a debate where Trudeau and O'Toole were two of the participants!

But, I'm off to see if there are any new unusual polls out this morning and I plan to go back to poll discussions here. But, I have enjoyed a bit of Canadian news and Canadian comments (within the links) about the throne speech and Trudeau in recent days. I've found it interesting.

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Ann

Quite a number of new polls on RCP so far today, but none of these are catching my eye in an unexpected or surprising way.



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Nana H

There are a huge number out on 538 . Perhaps there is one there that will fit your agenda but a quick glance suggests not much. Maybe Nevada showing a plus for Trump might brighten your day a little but then there is Iowa showing a plus for Biden..and GA at even.

ETA Surprised Iowa didn't catch your eye.....

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Ann

Yeah, the Nevada poll did brighten my day a bit. The Wyoming poll (+45) for Trump cracked me up. Maybe Wyoming should be my future state:) Heck, I should take a drive up to Wyoming just to see all the Trump signs I'd expect are there.

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heri_cles

Population of Wyoming - 578,759 = Two Senate seats

Population of Washington DC - 705,749 = No Senate seat

Gotta change that.

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Ann

That, and the number of SCOTUS justices, the electoral college, and eliminate the legislative filibuster - right?

We know the plans and the reasoning behind each.

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Ann

Kind of an interesting piece by Doug Schoen. It's 4 days old which is actually a bit old in this election cycle, but I just saw it today.


https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/517312-can-donald-trump-maintain-new-momentum-until-this-november

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Iris GW

We know the plans and the reasoning behind each.

Washington DC citizens don't deserve representation?

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Ann

Interesting new Monmouth poll details today. This part especially caught my attention but the whole article is interesting.

"Independent voters are split at 43% for Trump and 41% for Biden. The Democrat had a small 47% to 40% advantage with this group at the start of the month. Geographically, Biden has also lost his advantage among voters living in swing counties – the counties where either Trump or Hillary Clinton won the vote by less than 10 points in 2016. Voter preferences in these counties now stands at 47% Trump and 46% Biden, whereas the challenger held a 47% to 40% edge earlier this month. Other demographic trends are fairly stable."


https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_092820/

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elvis

Thanks for the updates, Ann. I hope you'll keep posting them, I'll keep reading 'em. ;D

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Ann

It's beginning to look a lot like 2016. Today, Biden has an average lead of 3.6 in the battleground states. On the same day in 2016, Hillary had an average lead of 2.8.

Also, an encouraging national poll out today for Trump. Harvard-Harris has Biden +2 nationally. One month ago (its last release), it was Biden +6.




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elvis

That's a nice way to start debate day!

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Nana H

"It's beginning to look a lot like 2016"

Except it's not 2016 it's 2020.

Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton

Trump is not a political unknown he is an incumbent President

AND

Trump won every single one of those States on that chart in 2016 and Biden now has a lead in every one of them. No, it most definitely is NOT anything like 2016.


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Nana H

As for Harris, a definite outlier but one needs to find their smiles where they can.

RCP has Biden + 6.1 on the national average

538 has Biden + 7.2 on the national average

1 point is neither here nor there in my mind ..........but both are a far cry from + 2

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Ann

Lol, I guess not a nice way for some to start debate day:)

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Nana H

I was curious so took a look at the current Senate polls to see what this SC nomination might have done. If the Republicans think it gave them a boost it doesn't appear to have.

Too many to give all the numbers but It appears that the Republicans have not gained any ground with this nomination. The Dems are still well ahead in MA, AZ, CO, and NC but interestingly giving a good run for their money in SC and IO. The Democratic contender is holding steady since the nomination. Neither Ernst nor Graham seems to have benefited from it.

Georgia is looking competitive too! Good chance the Senate flips with a Biden win!

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Ann

That looking like 2016 from yesterday is looking even more like 2016 today!


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Ann

This is interesting, from Gallup today. This is inconsistent with the betting markets, which really think Biden will win - and have thought so for months.

"Looking back, Gallup has asked Americans for their predictions in the late summer or fall of every presidential election year from 1996 through 2012, and an ABC News/Washington Post poll included a comparable question in 2016. In each of these polls, Americans accurately predicted the winner of the popular vote, though not the winner of the Electoral College. That is, in 2000 and 2016, the public predicted Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, respectively, would win the election. Although both of these Democratic candidates won the popular vote, George W. Bush and Trump, respectively, won the most electoral votes and ultimately became president.

The prediction of a Trump victory is not consistent with the average of recent national presidential vote-preference polls, which show Biden with a significant lead, but it is consistent with Americans' expectation of a victory for the incumbent president in every race in which one has been running. The two most recent elections in which an incumbent lost -- 1980 and 1992 -- occurred before Gallup began asking Americans to handicap the presidential election race."

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elvis

That is interesting. Thanks for pointing that out, Ann!

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Ann

Pretty nice average approval rating for Trump today. Not his highest, but definitely in his upper range.


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Ann

This IBD poll is great news for Trump this morning. From a Biden 8 point lead in early September to a Biden 3 point lead now. Also, a nice increase in Hispanic support, which I've been hearing more and more news about in recent weeks (or even months). Biden leads this year with the 65 and over group (Trump did in 2016), but the good news for Trump and for the Republicans in general - is Trump leads in both groups between 25-65. So much for the Republican party losing all its support as the old people die off - which has been a common Dem narrative for quite a number of years.

There have been some bad Trump vs Biden polls for Trump lately, like one yesterday saying Biden had a 13 point lead - BUT this is IBD and, as I recall without re-looking it up to be absolutely positive, IBD was the closest of them all in 2016!

Then, in the battleground states 2016/2020 chart today (the one I posted on Tuesday and Wednesday just a few comments above), Biden now has just a tiny bit less of a lead against Trump this year than Clinton did on the same day 4 years ago.

Lastly, this linked IBD poll was conducted following the debate on Tuesday.


https://www.investors.com/news/joe-biden-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows-after-presidential-debate-ibd-tipp-poll/

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Nana H

National polls are mildly interesting at this point. State level, especially battlegounds, are more interesting. Apparently Barrett' s nomination wasn't a huge mover.

Sorry it's blurry click on it and it's clearer.

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Ann

New USA/Suffolk Florida poll out today (tie for Trump and Biden). I was perusing the details and this kind of stuck out to me. Twice as many of those polled were conservative as were liberal. I like the amount of interest in conservatism in Florida and, also, that I've noticed between the ages of 25-65 in polls nationally, in general. I've linked the results for anyone wanting to see the rest of the specifics. I thought all of it interesting but this liberal/moderate/conservative category had the result that most caught my eye.



https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2020/10_6_2020_marginals_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=947AE66560F84E40184B280F9636A8B37F90CD3E

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Ziemia(6a)

So interesting

And I would consider myself moderate. Seriously.

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Toby

So 215 are conservative, 105 are liberal, and 156 are moderate. 226 are voting for Trump and 225 for Biden (29 undecided). If we assume the vast majority of conservatives are voting for Trump, he's added eleven voters from the moderate and liberal pool of voters. If we assume the majority of liberals are voting for Biden, he's added 120 voters from the moderate and conservative pool. These extra votes likely come from moderates and Independents, so it would seem Biden is going to do better with them than Trump is in Florida. That makes me smile.

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Stars Inthesky

CNN/SSRS poll is Biden 57%, trump 41%

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vgkg Z-7 Va(Z-7)

Joe's approval is on a steady rise while donald's is on the decline, poor donald must be going nutz over the latest "ratings" numbers...if anyone is brave enough to tell him that is. His pathetic debate "performance", his catching covid, and showboating his way back into the White House is just spreading his "glory" - Haleluya.

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vgkg Z-7 Va(Z-7)

Poll Finds Voters in Two Crucial States Repelled by Trump’s Debate Behavior

Biden is ahead by seven points in Pennsylvania and five points in Florida, according to the Times/Siena survey.

-----------

A Biden Fla win by 10pm on 11/3 should shut the loony trump bandwagon down, but no doubt he'll contest any and all results that he doesn't like.

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Ann

The polls look bad for Trump, don't they?

I saw this article today and this so reminds me of the story I heard in 2016 from one of my children who took a road trip just prior to the election.


https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla

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vgkg Z-7 Va(Z-7)

Hillary's numbers were much worse than Joe's, she never reached 50% in any poll other than those relating to unlikeability, trust, etc., the same place Donald finds himself today, he's well below 50% in all other approval rated categories and even tied with Joe in the economy stats - donald's only remaining foothold, he's tripping over his own feet. Sure trump supporters are geared up, but the demos are too this time around. There will be no more assuming that America isn't dumb enough to dare elect a egotistical self serving ignorant moron to lead the country. Trump fatigue rules the day.

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Nana H

There was another Florida ( University of North Florida) poll out today showing Biden with a 6 point lead. What was interesting to me was the split amongst Hispanics. Biden is still quite a bit ahead. The term oversample intrigued me so I did some research. It is a practice used in some polls when they want to get a broader perspectve from a group than they would get if they took a number relative to the population. In other words they were particularly interested in the Hispanic vote because there were several local issues on that ballot that were of particular interest to Hispanics.

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2020/10/06/unf-poll-finds-joe-biden-has-slim-lead-over-president-trump-among-likely-florida-voters/

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Nana H

Battlegrounds post debate...post Covid diagnosis . It ain't over until it' s over but I sure bet Trump would rather these were his numbers...... Click on it to see it more clearly


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vgkg Z-7 Va(Z-7)

^^^ A very good stretch of 50%+ for Joe, fifty is nifty.

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Nana H

Yes, it's Wednesday and yes there are many, many State level polls out for both the Presedential race and the Senate. Biden is winning or virtually tied in every competitive state that Trump won and even some like Texas, Iowa and Ohio. Texas you say ! Not a chance he wins it but it shouldn't be this close. Really good chance the Senate flips! Yes Trump wins Montana and West Virginia......

Go Joe !!!!


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/?ex_cid=irpromo

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Ann

It's looking like a HUGE Biden landslide, isn't it?

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Nana H

Ann, not ready to say that....but I'm guessing you may prefer a different picture. The one thing I do find interesting is the delta bewteen what Trump won a State by and where he is now. Example Texas , Trump won by just over 9 % in 2016 and now he is ahead by about 3%. Things are too close in States they should not be so close in. We' ll see, I'm more hopeful than I have been but not convinced.


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Kathy

Wait until Barr starts investigating ballots with his new ruling. The GOP is doing everything they can to make sure Trump wins. So much for the DOJ not interfering with elections.



But according to an email sent Friday by an official in the Public Integrity Section in Washington, now if a U.S. attorney’s office suspects election fraud that involves postal workers or military employees, federal investigators will be allowed to take public investigative steps before the polls close, even if those actions risk affecting the outcome of the election.


https://www.propublica.org/article/doj-frees-federal-prosecutors-to-take-steps-that-could-interfere-with-elections-weakening-long-standing-policy


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Iris GW

Ann, any thoughts on why Biden's numbers seem to be improving? Just curious if Trump's supporters think Trump himself is responsible for any of the change.

I think Biden is improving because he has a better message for most of Americans.

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Ann

Well, for those who think the swing states will make or break this race for one or the other candidate - we are still looking one heck of a lot like 2016 - except Trump is doing slightly better against Biden in those states than he was against Clinton on this same day 4 years ago. Don't misunderstand, Biden is leading in all of them, but Clinton was leading "the battleground group" by a little more. Then, Clinton's battleground lead continued to increase even more until about the 23rd of October, when things began to tighten in those battleground states. Clinton held a battleground state lead the entire time, even on election day. Since I'm quite interested to see if this year continues to parallel 2016, I'll be interested to see if Biden's battleground lead increases a bit for about two more weeks and then begins to lessen.

If that parallel happens and if Trump wins enough of those states to win 4 more years, I will strongly conclude the polls are both rigged and fake and my poll watching will come to an abrupt end.

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Ann

Here is that chart of the "today" comparison.


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Ann

Then, here is the chart, 4 years ago, from today until election day.


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