Protests during coronavirus

HamiltonGardener

I‘m curious what kind of spike in coronavirus will be seen as a result of the protests and riots all over the USA.


I have one friend who thinks the virus is winding down and the large gatherings won’t cause a very significant rise in cases, it’s run past its peak.

I have another friend who thinks crowds this large (much larger than the earlier beach or party gatherings) is going to double the deaths.


I think the vast majority of protesters are young and healthy, so even if there is a rise in cases, we won’t see significant deaths or serious cases as a result of these protests.


Any thoughts?

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ubro(2a)

I am worried that Toronto will see a spike in 2 weeks as well.

These guys are young and healthy, mostly, but they do have jobs and they do go home or visit those that may not be.

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catspa_zone9sunset14

Given that the virus is not "winding down" in many places in the U.S., the argument of one of your friends already rests on a faulty assumption.

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Jonnygun(zone 7)

I wonder if this racist virus will disproportionally affect black rioters?

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terezosa / terriks

How does a virus wind down?

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Kathy

My thought is Trump will have something else to blame for the virus now. He will be blaming——The protests caused the spike——The leftists caused the problem. He is in the clear now in his mind.

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paprikash

He’s always been in the clear but, yes, any spike will be due to the rioters and the left

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Kathy

He has never been in the clear. He has been remiss from day one. He is right now as we speak inciting chaos in US. That is why he was put in office with Putin’s help. He is carrying out his mission.

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lionheart_gw (USDA Zone 5A, Eastern NY)

"How does a virus wind down?"

Viruses mutate. It could become less harmful over time. Any virus that kills its host isn't a very successful virus, so the more virulent (not a pun) varieties would die off with their hosts, while the less deadly ones would have better success at perpetuating themselves.

I don't know what happened with SARS-Cov1, but my understanding is that it was a flash in the pan and there have been no new cases since June 15, 2003, with the exception of a laboratory accident in Singapore in 2004.

I guess this virus could go down that road too.

It was rather bizarre to see everyone suddenly forget about the importance of masking and distancing, especially when so many people demand that others should observe those rules religiously and with great reverence.

Large protests are too chaotic and too in-the-moment to give much thought to other considerations, and virus concerns will be given short shrift.

At any rate, the protests are needed, although we could do without the destruction and vandalism, and I'm glad Chauvin will be charged with some variety of murder, because that's what it was.

The other officers should be charged too, since they did nothing to stop this utterly contemptible murder. They were at least accessories, if not complicit. Some states don't have strict laws regarding complicity or the failure to render aid, so I don't know how much justice that will provide, but the other officers should pay a price too.

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sheesh(5b)

Kathy, that is Exactly what I was going to write. Trump has an excellent excuse to blame the rise in Covid numbers now.

Wait for it. He won't disappoint us on this.

I hate that jerk. And I intend to write that in every post from now on. I hate that jerk.

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nancy_in_venice_ca Sunset 24 z10

the virus is not "winding down" in many places in the U.S.

Worth repeating.

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lurker111

Well, Minnesota has given us a textbook example of the differences between left and right protests.

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jlhug

I think the vast majority of protesters are young and healthy, so even if there is a rise in cases, we won’t see significant deaths or serious cases as a result of these protests.

What about the families they live with and the people they come in contact with at work, shopping, eating out, having a drink with their buddies, etc? I think there is going to be a spike in the number of cases in the cities where the protests and riots have been. And it won't be the protestors getting sick and dying, it will be their parents, grandparents and people who work in and own small businesses.



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maddie260

The ‘liberate this state or that state’ rallies and crowded beaches over Memorial Day weekend certainly added to rising Covid numbers.

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Kathy

Trump is on Twitter blaming Dem gov’s and mayors along with Biden. The man is useless. He is stirring the pot during a crisis.

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ingrid_vc so. CA zone 9

It is utterly dispiriting to think that all of this could have been avoided if law enforcement had done the right thing and arrested the perpetrator (and the three other cops who allowed this horrific act to take place) immediately. If it had been a black cop who did this to a white victim we can safely assume that the outcome would have been vastly different.

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mudhouse

And it won't be the protestors getting sick and dying, it will be their
parents, grandparents and people who work in and own small businesses.

As well as any of the law enforcement officers who are older or have underlying health conditions that increase their risk. I watched footage of a police officer who looked to be in his 60s, with no protective gear, probably pressed into service without much warning, because a number of them had no protective/riot gear on. He was encouraging the crowd to move back by moving towards them, as they yelled in his face.

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maddie260

dt’s administration modeling of masks has been an abysmal fail. Duly noted.

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Ziemia(6a)

Boston shows you can mask and protest (the social distancing is not really compatible with protest marching)

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maddie260

San Francisco and NYC were pretty good with the masks, too. I’ll guess they listened to local, not federal, politicians.

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elvis

(the social distancing is not really compatible with protest marching)

Kinda like church, right?

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Joaniepoanie

Protesting is outside, church attendance is not. The virus spreads more easily in enclosed settings.

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Marigold

Unfortunately, the use of teargas has the potential to spread it faster, with people coughing, choking, crying and spitting, then they are all moved en mass down the street, so they have no choice but to crowd together.
Scary times

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patriciae_gw(07)

I have been figuring that conservatives will be seizing on these protests as being responsible for the inevitable uptick in Covid-19 caused by the too early opening of America. It is just too easy.

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Stan Areted

It's too easy because it will be too true, that is if there are considerable increases.

If not--then the jig is up!

Either way, crats lose.

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elvis

Interesting point, Stan, about whether or not there will be an uptick in cases. If there isn't, why not? I noticed a thread about one person at a pool party testing positive, surely there are many "positives" out there involved in the current unrest, both among the peaceful protestors and the other people, the mobs.

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wildchild2x2

Well the thugs are all wearing masks here so they should be safe.

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jmm1837

I'd really hope that at least some Americans understand that there are fundamental issues here that go way beyond simplistic slogans shouted across the political divide. The failure to develop and pursue a coherent national strategy in the face of a pandemic; the many unaccountable and out of control police forces; the entrenched racism which no government has solved in over half a century of trying; these together are the symptoms of deep underlying problems that have been years in the making and are not going to magically disappear after the election. Riots, like the breakdown of cooperation between the federal and state government during Covid19, are symptoms of a social and political fragmentation that will leave America vulnerable until they are finally recognized and addressed. MAGA? How about just making America a fair and safe place to live for all Americans.

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maddie260

So many covidiots at those militia parties to liberate states sporting their big guns and camo wear with no masks or distancing- those states have rising numbers! cons lose too! It will be so hard to pin it on any one factor, but we do know dt will try.

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happyleg

I heard a rumor from someone that things were changing in our city and that the The gangs from the other places are coming for their riots here I hope not and all our stores will get bored it up

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wildchild2x2

The entire San Francisco Bay area and beyond is under curfew. All Target stores and many other businesses that have been allowed to open have closed for an indefinite period. Tough enough to get household supplies with the shelter in place sanctions, now we have this to contend with. People are angry. This is not going to turn out well for the "protesters" nor those that support them.

In St. Louis protesters attacked a Fed Ex truck and got a little taste of reality. One guy fell off and was dragged to his death. Maybe some of those thugs will have their eyes opened to actions have consequences.

https://www.kmov.com/news/george-floyd-protests-st-louis-man-killed-fedex-truck/article_f8a89482-a259-11ea-84b8-a374c58a7d47.html

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ohiomom

I have been figuring that conservatives will be seizing on these protests as being responsible for the inevitable uptick in Covid-19 caused by the too early opening of America. It is just too easy.

Really? The numbers have been going up here in the city by the lake before one protester stepped into the street. And where was all the worrying and fretting when the bars and restaurants and such opened up and it showed the partiers eating, drinking and be merry. Cause ya can't do that with a mask on either.

Right, big concern now because of these protesters,



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lurker111

Some of the people on this forum said the conservatives who peacefully protested should be denied treatment if they get sick. I haven't heard one word about refusing treatment for the crats and their rampaging riots.

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Nana H

Any rioter committing violent illegal acts should be treated for the virus....in State prison

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lurker111

Prison isn't good enough. We need reform, where the criminals are forced to work to pay for their damage and upkeep.

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ubro(2a)

Some of the people on this forum said the conservatives who peacefully protested should be denied treatment if they get sick. I haven't heard one word about refusing treatment for the crats and their rampaging riots.

The fact that you cannot see the difference is interesting, protesting the right to go out and cause hurt to others for your own personal gain, or protesting racial injustice, hmmmmm?

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ubro(2a)

^^^ my laugh for the day, I can usually count on one over my morning coffee.

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jlhug

The protests came to the front door of my rental property last night. My property was not damaged but the stores across the street were looted. Those stores are owned by acquaintances who were just starting to reopen their doors after being shut down. They were struggling before; now it looks like they will end up as another empty storefront. Many years ago, our property was damaged in a similar in incident. After that we put up security cameras. The videos will be shared with the police.

We all have the right to protest peacefully, but none of us has the right to damage other people’s property, threaten their livelihood or steal their possessions


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HamiltonGardener

ROME (Reuters) - The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.

“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion.

“The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television.

Italy has the third highest death toll in the world from COVID-19, with 33,415 people dying since the outbreak came to light on Feb. 21. It has the sixth highest global tally of cases at 233,019.

However new infections and fatalities have fallen steadily in May and the country is unwinding some of the most rigid lockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent.

Zangrillo said some experts were too alarmist about the prospect of a second wave of infections and politicians needed to take into account the new reality.

“We’ve got to get back to being a normal country,” he said. “Someone has to take responsibility for terrorizing the country.”

The government urged caution, saying it was far too soon to claim victory.

“Pending scientific evidence to support the thesis that the virus has disappeared ... I would invite those who say they are sure of it not to confuse Italians,” Sandra Zampa, an undersecretary at the health ministry, said in a statement.

“We should instead invite Italians to maintain the maximum caution, maintain physical distancing, avoid large groups, to frequently wash their hands and to wear masks.”

A second doctor from northern Italy told the national ANSA news agency that he was also seeing the coronavirus weaken.

“The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today,” said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa.

“It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different.”


Winding down?


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elvis

Thanks, HG. We need that promising information.

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catspa_zone9sunset14

We also need scientific verification. As observed by multiple commenters on this at this site, though constantly monitored, there is no evidence of significant genetic modification in the virus (a good thing, vaccine-wise) that would explain such "weakening". There are also other factors that could cause this effect that need to be excluded. An example from the comments:

“These claims are not supported by anything in the scientific literature, and also seem fairly implausible on genetic grounds.

“The vast majority of SARS-CoV-2 mutations are extremely rare, and so whilst some infections may be attenuated by certain mutations, they are highly unlikely to be common enough to alter the nature of the virus at a national or global level. We know that susceptibility to the virus significantly differs across age and risk groups, and so infection outcomes will also drastically differ across individuals. As testing efforts are scaled up across the globe, asymptomatic and mild infections which previously would not have been detected, are now much more likely to be identified. It’s important not to confuse this with any weakening on the virus’s part.

“Making these claims on the basis of anecdotal observations from swab tests is dangerous. Whilst weakening of the virus through mutations is theoretically possible, it is not something we should expect, and any claims of this nature would need to be verified in a more systematic way. Without significantly stronger evidence, no one should unnecessarily downplay the danger this highly virulent virus poses, and risk the ongoing society-wide response.”

There is always hope, but it should not be baseless hope. A couple of doctors with anecdotal observations is not a strong basis.

ETA my county had a significant increase in hospitalizations (not related to increased testing, so a better indicator) this past week, the expected result of the partial reopening of construction and additional retail that occurred three weeks ago.

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HamiltonGardener

I’d think it was likely that a lot of the most susceptible were caught up in the first wave and it hit them hard. As more of the population develops antibodies, it’s become harder for the virus to find a path through the population to the most susceptible and the high risk. That would explain the slow down.

It takes 60-70% of the population to have antibodies to stop the virus, but it takes a lower percentage to SLOW the virus. Areas that were hit hard like New York or Italy will see a faster drop off in cases. Countries like Australia and New Zealand are still virgin ground for the virus.

As noted before, coronavirus is very slow to mutate, unlike the flu virus. Not saying it can’t mutate, but likely not enough to affect a vaccine.

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jmm1837

I read an article today in one of the Aussie papers about the Italian claim that the virus has mutated. Several researchers here have been saying that they are not at all convinced, because they've seen no evidence in their own testing that the virus is weakening. What they think might be happening is that, now that Italy has widened its testing, its capturing milder and asymptomatic cases who are not very sick and therefore are carrying a lesser viral load than the more severe cases they were testing in the past. They doubt that the virus has mutated much at all.

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Rudebekia

I have to laugh at the fickleness of my liberal neighborhood social media posters who just four days ago were turning in neighbors (literally) for not keeping 6 feet apart and/or not wearing masks and who are now shaming neighbors who don't join the protests where people are cheek to jowl, many unmasked, and shouting. Unbelievable. A real lesson in this about stupidity and attempted social control. The politics of "shame" goes on for the left!

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dandyfopp

It is a hilarious situation.

A man was choked to death by a policeman while the camera rolled and he begged for his life, then protests broke out.

Knee slapper.

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ubro(2a)

A real lesson in this about stupidity and attempted social control. The politics of "shame" goes on for the left!

If everyone protesting, even the peaceful ones are from the left then the right has seriously sunk into the mud. I would hope that is not the case.

They will gather with masks for issues of no real purpose, demanding the right to put others at risk, hollering about their rights being eroded, and yet when a man is lynched, when racism has taken away the right of a segment of the population for decades, instead of understanding how minorities feel, because now they to have been subject to restrictions, they sit on their hands and blame everyone except themselves because they are the ones who voted for a corrupt system.


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Ann

"It was rather bizarre to see everyone suddenly forget about the importance of masking and distancing, especially when so many people demand that others should observe those rules religiously and with great reverence."

No kidding.

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Ziemia(6a)

Torture & murder by cops in plain sight - not a big deal?

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Ann

"Protesting is outside, church attendance is not. The virus spreads more easily in enclosed settings."

Something about this comment made me stop reading/skimming the thread with kind of a thud like stop. I reread it a couple times, just thinking wow. We're in some weird territory.

Maybe something like hiking would be a better "outside" activity and maybe "church" would be one heck of a useful "enclosed" activity at a time like this. I would take a wild guess many church attendees would be very willing to politely wear a mask and social distance and as Ziemia pointed out, protest marching isn't very conducive to social distancing.

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Ziemia(6a)

Torture & murder by cops in plain sight ...

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Ann

I agree with Elvis in that Stan's "jig is up" comment is a very interesting point.

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catspa_zone9sunset14

"Protesting is outside, church attendance is not. The virus spreads more easily in enclosed settings." Something about this comment made me stop reading/skimming the thread with kind of a thud like stop. I reread it a couple times, just thinking wow. We're in some weird territory.

That was a simple, scientific fact, Ann, not a statement of values. Erin Bromage, a professor of immunology, wrote a good review of current knowledge about Covid transmission and relative risk of infection (here) a few weeks ago. Based on what is now known about that relative risk, I've resumed my outdoor bike rides. On the other hand, my husband will not be going back to his indoor climbing gym for a good long while. Indoor air dynamics mean that respiratory droplets and the virus particles riding in them are more concentrated and in the air for a longer period of time there. As infection risk is defined by time X amount of exposure (the one thing my daughter says she remembers from the environmental toxicology courses she took in college), this is a key point. Only one case in a study of hundreds of them in China could be traced to an outdoor exposure. Even with masks and social distancing (and not every church seems to be up to that), indoors is still riskier than outdoors -- simple physics.

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Stan Areted

"It was rather bizarre to see everyone suddenly forget about the importance of masking and distancing, especially when so many people demand that others should observe those rules religiously and with great reverence."


Yep.

Also bizarre to see a scolding "news reporter" complaining about passersby not wearing masks when he pointed one out verbally, the guy turned around and asked the reporter why his cameraman wasn't wearing a mask!

Also, Jim Acosta whining about masks, but not wearing one while on the street during these riots. That doesns't surprise me, Jim Acosta is one petty little fool.


The hypocrisy of the left as far as their demands to go home and hateful judgment that they don't care for the public for people that want to safety get back to work and worship vs their embracing of thug criminals destroying our cities, neighborhoods, committing crimes against people and property with no concern of covid, or even that they're CRIMINALS, stinks like last decades' garbage!

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Ziemia(6a)

The torture and murder of a subdued man by a team of cops in broad daylight..

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catspa_zone9sunset14

The inability of conservatives to deal with complexity that I've often observed is on full display here. It is possible for some of us to understand the spontaneous expression of anger by protesters while also thinking they need to be arrested if they break the law. It is also possible for some of us to understand people wanting to get back to work and church while thinking that tens of thousands of lives don't need to be sacrificed if we can do it in a rational way.

In my town, for example, the relatively lower risk of outdoors vs indoors offers a solution to the problem of restaurant businesses not being sustainable due to reduced capacities from social distancing. Our town is closing streets and allowing them to expand into those adjacent outdoor spaces -- win-win.

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sheesh(5b)

The torture and murder of a subdued man by a team of cops in broad daylight...not a big deal.

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sjerin

Lurker, new cases do not take only a few days to become evident. These numbers are caused by people who refuse to wear mask and keep distant from others.

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lurker111

I'm not blaming this spike on the riots. The chart I posted shows the results from removing the stay at home orders that weren't really working, anyway. We didn't have any riots here.

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jmm1837

So what youre saying is the orders weren't really working but cases are spiking since they were removed?

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sjerin

:) You beat me to it, jmm. And lurker, knock it off with using "riots" instead of "protests." You know darned well the vast majority of people in the streets are peaceful protestors, and your "rioters" are thugs who have nothing to do with the protests.

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studio10001

facts:3, lurker: 0

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studio10001

This is the first rioter I have seen addressed by name. Wesley Somers has been arrested for setting the Nashville courthouse on fire.


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wildchild2x2


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ubro(2a)

Imagine, people so incensed at the level of racial injustice that they will risk their very lives to make sure that the killing of minorities stops.

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Stan Areted

ubro:

Imagine, people so incensed at the level of racial injustice that they will risk their very lives to make sure that the killing of minorities stops.

Please, let me know how that is going to be accomplished.

I wonder if there should be riots, arson, beatings, destruction, vandalism, rock throwing for the killing of others BY minorities stops?


See how this works?

Joe Biden has had DECADES to address this issue, and in particular in a very, very important position for over eight years to do something about "racial injustice."

Show me a politician--show me anyone--that can control the actions of a race of people (hard to do now, seems they get along well enough to blend races and erase those lines) and can control the actions of individuals.

Democrats have been promising for half a century they would wipe out racial injustice and now they're talking about how bad it is? They conveniently forget their half a century of failure.

Democrats also forget their huge contribution to crime and poverty--subsidizing fatherless families or years and years with little to no requirements to change one's circumstances, not requiring education or job training for welfare, and not enforcing drug laws or gun laws.

The fact is, these situations can't be controlled anymore than those criminal thugs in Chicago shooting and killing their own race and others, and in other cities, either. They can't control a bad cop that is prejudiced and kills others because he feels superior and power.


The fact is, there are some things that can be dimished, attitudes can and have changed over time, but Joe Biden can't bring anyone together. Perhaps if he'd kept his hands off adolescent girls and his nose off their necks he could have accomplished in the last forty years what he says he's going to do by the time he is 82 years old.





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