Watch out for the second wave

Iris GW

Does anyone know if this is not accurate? The person who posted it said: " A systematic analytic analysis to influenza pandemic preparedness planning. Barnett, Balcier, Lucy, Everly, Omer, Steinhoff & Grotto (2005), PLoSMed 2(12): e359 "



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Izzy Mn(4)

I have had the feeling that what the 1918 pandemic looked like we were going to experience.... unless we are able to get a working vaccine before the second wave (kinda doubt) or we ALL use extreme caution. But with the release from restrictions have had a bit of a celebratory reaction rather than a cautious one. We are in for more infections.

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kadefol

TX is pretty much wide open at this point and people are acting like that means no more pandemic, with many no longer wearing masks nor observing social distancing. Many churches are even holding onsite Sunday services and masses again. I wonder what stats will look like in a couple weeks.

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maddie260

Yes, you can't fool Mother Nature. The virus runs the show, not the economy. It's every man/woman for him/herself at this point. Be smart and safe.

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Current Resident(z4 WI)

The prog on PBS about 1918 pandemic (still streaming I believe) said exactly that - that people were very vigilant at first and then when it seemed the first wave wasnt such a big deal, got lax about it.... with unfortunate results. Oh, the PBS program Im referring to was done years ago, well before the current situation, so it's not like they had any political agenda. They were just telling the story.

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blfenton

That big second wave was attributed to the movement of troops during the war. But, there was still a second wave.

We are what?, four months into covid 19. Spanish flu was two years long with subsequent waves, the 1969 Hong Kong flu was two years long with subsequent waves, and the Swine flu of 2009 was 18 months long.

We're still at the beginning of this thing, I hope this doesn;t follow the same trends of the previous pandemics but we just don't know. If you don't want to be careful that's up to you and I don't care, just stay away from me and mine.

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lurker111

Texas beaches are packed. I feel like the last 2 months have been a wasted effort.

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girlnamedgalez8a(8A)

For once I agree with Lurker. All of the effort in TX was for nothing.


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Ziemia(6a)

Well, Trump has been saying right along that things should be open and available....

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lurker111

I agree. If the people won't make a small sacrifice, then what's the point? The stay at home orders were a joke. I'll just make sure to stay upwind from everyone and keep my distance...Just like during the other pandemics. Let's just get it over with.

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Iris GW

lurker, does it boil down to 'personal responsibility' and 'every man for himself' as far as you're concerned?

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socks(10a)

The point of "stay home" was to protect hospitals and clinics from being slammed like NYC was. And for California, it worked. Another point was for seniors and people with other health conditions to protect themselves since they are at extra risk. There is no telling how many deaths have been prevented by the restraint millions of people made to slow the spread. Remember, flatten the curve? That's what has been done in many areas. Do you think schools should not have closed? Put our precious children at risk? Teachers, with their own kids? That's a sickening thought.

You think this has been a joke? Oh yes, lol. Maybe you really do think it's a joke, and if so, head on out.

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arthurm2015(Micro-Climate, Zone 10b Sydney, Australia)

Maybe there will be a second wave here when restrictions are eased again on the the first of June and the fairly tight restrictions were a waste of time. LOL I just love how the "right" are so certain about everything. Not wishy washy like us on the socialist/commie left.

My wife ventured out for a brief shopping trip yesterday, her first real outing in a month!


Here is of course Australia where things have returned to normal on the political front. Back to arguing left versus right.


Kudos to our politicians for a great bi-partisan effort in the early days of the crisis.

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Iris GW

While I certainly do support personality responsibility, lurker, infectious diseases have a way of leveling the playing field. We have vaccines for a reason - it's not just 'try not to get the measles and try hard!'

Infectious people aren't just breathing out droplets of virus, they are touching things and leaving the virus behind. People who are being responsible and careful can still get it.

This requires coordination and efforts beyond the single person.

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jmm1837

The school argument is an interesting one. Our premier has been one of the slowest to relax the rules, but even he is about to start a phased reopening. There doesn't seem to be much evidence that schools are an incubator. We shall see.

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maifleur03

One of my random thoughts during this stay at home is that for many elderly this is what living in a nursing home will be. Each person may have washed their own clothing and did food prep but some had their food and other things delivered. In times without the virus one of the few exceptions would be that there are other people around.

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abzzybee(9/10 S. Florida)

I'm not sure about a giant resurgence wave later in the year, this is not the flu, I see it more like an ongoing, relentless swell that surges here and there killing as it goes until there's either a viable vaccine or a treatment.

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Stan Areted

Survival of the fittest and smartest.

Perfect.

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Embothrium(Sunset Climate Zone 5, USDA Hardiness Zone 8)

Colleges are international melting pots.

Which is of course worse because it's those foreign people that cause all the problems with everything.

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carolb_w_fl_coastal_9b(zone 9/10)

The isolating and closures were not just to keep healthcare facilities from being overwhelmed, ideally they would have helped to give authorities time to make preparations and get systems up and running. That extra time was squandered by the current federal government.a

And I understand that in San Francisco, in 1918, there was a huge event where multitudes gathered and removed their masks en masse and embraced and celebrated. Then came the second wave of infections- much, much worse than the first.

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bfox254

People don't seem to realize (or maybe just don't care) that the virus is still active and the threat still very real. It's foolish to go to back to a normal routine without extra precaution. I understand the temptation but hope we don't find ourselves back where we started. It would be extremely difficult to enact a shut down again if there's a significant uptick in cases given the many court challenges and protests lately.

I will say that where I live, in southeastern PA, the stay at home orders have been strict and are still in place. There's been a little pressure lately to relax the orders but overall people have been abiding by them. Our governor has managed to keep his head down and stay out of the spotlight for the most part, not an easy thing to do these days.

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kadefol

Stan Areted

Survival of the fittest and smartest.

Perfect.

If that was the case, trump and his administration would be long gone.

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nancy_in_venice_ca Sunset 24 z10

Survival of the fittest and smartest.

Perfect.

Too bad about the health care workers who had to die taking care of the Covid patients, no?

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Iris GW

Guess they weren't fit or smart enough, eh, Nancy? :(

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abzzybee(9/10 S. Florida)

Based on today's news we have another wave arriving within a couple of weeks.

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Joaniepoanie

Survival of the fittest and smartest.

By all means then, attend a Trump rally.

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Gooster(9)

Rather than colleges, I noticed that many of the initial cases were traced to leisure and business travelers, and large conferences, notably (ironically) a medical conference in Boston and a religious conference in Alsace-Lorraine. In February/March, conferences were already being cancelled. No better petri dish than to put a bunch of international travelers into a conference room for hours a day.


I share on another thread the sites that allow you to look at how social distancing is progressing based on cell phone data and other metrics. SafeGraph and Google


But regarding next waves, here's another site (PolicyLab at the Children's Hospital of Philly) that uses similar data to project changes based on social distancing (which I understand are used in the various models as well). In any case, you can lookup your county and see how you are doing with the distancing. Regarding the prior post about Texas, they called out several spots that are emerging hot spots, the Dallas_FW area in particular.

https://policylab.chop.edu/covid-lab-mapping-covid-19-your-community

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abzzybee(9/10 S. Florida)

^^^^ thank you for the information. Living in South Florida I'm certain that we're going to see ongoing spiking of infection rates just due to the increasing out and about of the year round population. How much will be due to imported cases from vacationers is anyone's guess.

There's an implied pent up demand for leisure activities for both locals and vacationers I gather from news and articles. This could contribute to rapid spreading and necessitate new shutdowns though I don't believe shutting down again for anything, even say a 500% increase is in the cards with governor Desantis.

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chisue

Not all of America is like the south. Not every individual in any state is dumb enough to run out and get exposed to Covid-19.

However...today we have Trump telling houses of worship to open up. (He also said that religious leaders love their congregations...and their people. Huh?)

His poor captive doctor managed to tell everyone to stay safe and observe physical distancing without mentioning...psst, Masks! She then immediately donned one.

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maddie260

Stan Areted

Survival of the fittest and smartest.

Perfect.

Few posts have stuck in my craw like this. So, stan, what about the medical people who have to take care of the people who just do what they want? What about the churches that will open cuz dt says they must open? Who will take care of those people if they contact Covid? Are those medical people not fit and smart? I would say that my son, a doctor, is fit and smart. He would not go out in public without a mask or go to church without a mask, social distancing, etc. Do you really think all of those Amazon/Walmart workers workers want to be working to fulfill YOUR and MY orders? Are the ones who can economically afford to stay at home fit and smart? Are the ones not in medicine fit and smart? I guess my children in law and finance are MORE fit and smart? This has to be one of the most tone-deaf elitist posts I have ever read.

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Linda

The worst hotspots in Texas are the meat packing plants where people risk their lives by working under very unsafe conditions. The gov says keep them open, but there are no mandatory safety rules or measures unless the companies just voluntarily agree to them. Nothing is mandatory. I read that in one county there are one case of virus for every 38 people in the county.

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Tilly Teabag

Yes, from my research the second wave of influenza was worse back then but it’s not exactly the same.

As for USA right now, if you go back to the way things were before, you are ignoring all the deaths. It’s like, if you didn’t restrict planes flying over New York and other cities, after 9/11.

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Rina

Stan Areted

Survival of the fittest and smartest.

Perfect

The logical conclusion one can draw from this is that one should feel really good about the deaths so far and those to come -- if it's a "perfect" situation -- because they are generally of inferior human beings. Am I understanding this correctly?

Lovely stuff.

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Stan Areted

No, you're not, Rina.

I never said that, your "logical conclusion" is dead wrong.

This is NOT about judging ME for what I said, anyway.

My reference is to evolution, Mother Nature, whatever you want to call it.

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Ziemia(6a)

But it does not( include "the smartest". It is only "the fittest" - unless some human (in a powerful position) is determining who is surviving.

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deegw

So, what about deceased healthcare workers infected with COVID by patients? Were they not fit or smart?

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HamiltonGardener

Well, the concept actually involves the fittest to pass along their genetics. Not strictly in the “survival for the moment” meaning.

Just... thought I’d throw my two cents in for fun.

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Rina

Stan, I do understand that the reference is to evolution. Duh? I also saw that your comment was "perfect". Nothing wrong with my logic. By the way, I think it's generally fine to judge people by what they say (and do), as long as you don't think that what you see is all there is to them.

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Stan Areted

Yes, you can judge them, but you are not to personally refer to the character, perceived intent or judgment of the person online, violate the terms of service by pronouncing judgment on the person that posted.

There is a distinct difference.

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Rina

If that what you think I was doing feel free to flag the comment. I don't think that is what I was doing, so I'm not going to delete.

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heri_cles

As dead bodies from Covid keep piling up, fewer people will take this like it is some kind of joke.

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studio10001

I'm not so sure. I am seeing a wider disconnect as this continues. I think there is a portion of the population that has hit overload - we see it here on threads where posters are screaming that they are adults who can reason for themselves and YOU are a ….( barrage of name calling). The higher death #s may not mean anything to those who have put it to the back of their minds as something else for others to worry about. It's possible for such people that, unless the death toll reaches their door, the longer the discussion about it lasts the more obdurance will be built around the topic.

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how2girl

History “may” point to Memorial Day Weekend as the incubator of the 2nd wave.


Memorial Day Weekend, Lake of the Ozarks, Central Missouri - no concerns around social distancing here, in fact the exact opposite.


https://twitter.com/scottpasmoretv/status/1264394565861232640?s=21



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Annie Deighnaugh

Yikes, I feel badly for those poor fools who are just asking for it. Self-limiting herd indeed.

It also makes me thankful I live in a part of the country where people are compliant with the laws in place and take this virus for the serious and deadly danger that it is.

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how2girl

That’s just part of a larger picture showing about 4 times that amount of people, all “just livin’ for the weekend”

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llucy

History “may” point to Memorial Day Weekend as the incubator of the 2nd wave.

Yesterday my lake community looked exactly as it has on previous holiday weekends; lot's of people out, entertaining friends & family, close on pontoon boats, no distancing, no masking.

Since covid didn't magically go away, a large spike in cases from holiday weekend playtime is likely just ahead.


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jerzeegirl (FL zone 9B)(9b)

we see it here on threads where posters are screaming that they are adults who can reason for themselves and YOU are a ….( barrage of name calling).

These are people who do not understand the nature of a viral pandemic. The virus doesn't care - it's just looking for a nice warm body to call home.

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nancy_in_venice_ca Sunset 24 z10

do not understand the nature of a viral pandemic

I'm currently reading Barry's The Great Influenza about the 1918-1920 pandemic and recently came to the explanation of the probable cause of the increased lethality of the that virus after the first wave -- "passage" of the pathogen. After the pathogen moves from the original animal host to the human host, with time the pathogen can learn to better adapt to the new host and become more efficient in replicating itself -- which leads to a stronger and more lethal pathogen.

This is a possibility that the world faces with Covid-19.

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Iris GW

This is a good link and has some good visual charts for a rolling 2-week time period.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/

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Linda

No curve flattening here in Texas. It just goes upward and that it is not flattening. The meat plants are putting many people in danger in parts of the state as they feed more victims to the meat producing companies...production, production, production. No mandatory rules or regulation...just "suggestions". Enjoy your meat, just don't touch raw meat with your hands, could be contagious uncooked.

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jmm1837

Looking at the assorted graphs available on line, it doesn't seem to me that the US is out of the first wave yet, never mind the second wave.

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Iris GW

Georgia is going back up.

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mr1010

National news is saying 8 states are experiencing spiking. 8. Seems the wave

is growing again, watch it mushroom.

We don't know what's really happening here in Florida as our data is so skewed

and deceptive. Death numbers are also being played with.

20,000 new cases this weekend in US. The new wave has started.

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Kathy

Have any countries stopped Americans from entry? Trump has closed the border to Brazil this week. They are number 5 in deaths and we are number 1.

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socks(10a)

No amount of wishing or pretending will make this go away. Not sure how it will end, but it’s a slow-moving moving disaster. Masks and distancing will be required for a long time.

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Nana H

I think most western countries have stopped all entry or imposed a 14 day monitored quarantine. No non essential travel is allowed into Canada from anywhere.

I was actually shocked to hear the US had not stopped travel from Brazil......

ETA Just checked the list and the only restrictions into the US are China, Iran, the EU, GB, Irish Republic and Canada......not India, not Russia, not Japan . That can't be right but that's what is on the official CDC website.

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jmm1837

Most countries have closed their borders to everyone but citizens and permanent residents, and imposed 2 week quarantines on those it does admit. Australia and NZ are discussing opening up to each other, and a few EU countries are discussing open up to their immediate neighbors. Those first small steps will not include the US. I expect it will be a while before anyone opens up fully.

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Nana H

I must admit to being surprised how open the US border is to foreign travel. At least if the CDC site is correct. We are totally locked down to non essential foreign travel .

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jmm1837

I'm wondering whether the US has imposed quarantines/self-isolation on Americans arriving back home. If not, that's a pretty big loophole.

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abzzybee(9/10 S. Florida)

Looks like we may be in for a second peak in this wave according to the WHO?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/26/coronavirus-update-us/

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how2girl

As predicted (links/source within article)...


One of the revelers at the wild, caught-on-video pool parties at the Lake of the Ozarks over Memorial Day weekend has tested positive for the coronavirus, it was revealed Friday.

And the partier was already sick when he or she joined in the non-socially-distanced fun, officials said — and so may have spread the virus to others who were there.

“The case arrived here on Saturday and developed illness on Sunday, so was likely incubating illness and possibly infectious at the time of the visit,” Camden County Health Department said in a press release.

Officials also released a timeline of the infected partier’s activity to help trace people who might have come into contact with them.


No way to control crowding at parties in Lake of Ozarks: mayor

The unidentified person, a resident of nearby Boone County, defied the state’s social distancing orders to indulge in their debauchery at a bar called Backwater Jacks — where they stayed from 1 to 5 p.m. on Saturday.

The partier then spent some time at the waterfront restaurant and live music venue Shady Gators and Lazy Gators Pool until 9 p.m.

On Sunday, the carouser had lunch at Buffalo Wild Wings before returning to Shady Gators — leaving around 7 p.m.

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abzzybee(9/10 S. Florida)

Not a second wave but a new peak I think is in the near future for many places nationwide, now you can add the rioters, at thie pace I think this will now penetrate we'll achieve herd immunity real quick methinks.

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maifleur03

Having spent some time in lake areas I have a problem with the time lines that were given to the health department. No one leaves the bars as early as stated unless they have made major hookups. On Sunday the person was apparently sick enough to call a cab. However cabs are hard to find in that area. There may be some Uber drivers but it is mostly a lake with a rim of businesses. Surrounding areas are very rural.

The next two weeks are about to become interesting.

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abzzybee(9/10 S. Florida)

Seems the virus news has dropped off the face off the earth. It is still with us though?

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paprikash

I’m in line now for my Covid test. I have a procedure scheduled for next Monday and the hospital is requiring it. Not looking forward to having a swab shoved up my nose but it is what it is.

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abzzybee(9/10 S. Florida)

Good luck and I hope it doesn't hurt too much. If you don't mind, let us know what you think about the process of that and what it's like in the hospital nowadays.

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paprikash

Thank you / will do.

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Nana H

Good luck Paprikash.....

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Izzy Mn(4)

Yes, let us know. My husband is scheduled for a outpatient procedure next week. It was actually scheduled for last week but they called to reschedule about 4 days before. There was no covid-19 test to be done before procedure, or at least so far. It is semi-elective/preventative kind of. He will be anesthetized, I can't go into building but I must drop off and pick up at entrance of outpatient surgery center.

--update--- they called to reschedule again but gave no date yet....

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paprikash

Okay. A very nice nurse in a spacesuit put a swab in each nostril for 5 seconds each. Uncomfortable, brain tickling but not all that awful, I have to self quarantine until my next Monday procedure. My driver - DH - had to wear a mask while I was being tested

eta Izzy - mine is outpatient also / endoscopy and colonoscopy. DH will not be able to come in to the hospital with me either

Thanks, Nana

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Izzy Mn(4)

Yep, same procedure. It's a follow up, secondary to remove some larger lesions, tested as non cancerous but must be removed.

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Stan Areted

Prayers for your procedure, Paprikash.

Your husband too, Izzy.

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abzzybee(9/10 S. Florida)

Thank you paprikash for updating us here, well wishes to you and Izzy`s husband for your respective medical procedures.

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wildchild2x2

Good luck on your procedure Paprikish.
I had a phone appointment with my doctor this morning. No way am I going in for an office visit while they are being forced to test patients. I told him he wouldn't be seeing me until this was over unless it was an emergency or illness I couldn't handle myself. No way will I allow myself to be put in a database of corruption. Yes I said forced. By the Public Health worker who has never practiced medicine a day beyond medical school. We addressed my injury, how I am treating it and spent more time on discussing how our public health dept. is handling this. He is outraged. He sounded livid. He is extremely concerned about the fallout to his patients health due to the draconian and useless restrictions. He is linked with a very well known teaching hospital. He said his colleagues are also upset. No one is listening to the doctors who treat patients. Unfortunately the witch has power and only the board of supervisors can fire her. The doctors who doctor are being muzzled with red tape and additional hoops to jump through. Told me for us to get outside, breath fresh air and do what it takes to live healthy lives.

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Izzy Mn(4)

Drs. Office called to reschedule again but no date given....:( I just wanted this done and over.

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elvis

I'm sorry, Izzy. I hope you get this all resolved soon.

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