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natethecanadian

Whoa Alberta....weather models are a gift from a frozen over hell.

Plant Love
4 years ago

Hey guys


I am sure I'm not the only one on this forum who resides in the western Canadian prairies and is looking at the degradation of the weather forecast in 24 short hours. It was a sad enough long term forecast that has dove into potentially record territory. I've been following the models so let me explain.


Two days ago, the GFS model was showing a beautiful warmup to seasonal temps (how sad is it to say that) next week. A short 6 hours later, the model did a full 180 and was showing a full week of 20-25c below average or 40-50f below average and I was laughing as I thought it was a glitch. This would be easily record breaking territory for worst April day in history and possibly worst week along with coldest highs ever. I checked the rest of the models and they were holding steady with warmth for one more run. The next run, every single one of them fell and copied the GFS.


The cold lows have warmed up a bit but its still very cold for this time of year and every single one of the models are identical for a full 10 days. I have never seen this and this time of the year is easily the most volatile so there should be large differences four days out or so. These models have held steady for 48hrs now with no budging except the the models want to warm up quite a bit by next friday (still below average by about 8c or 16f) but I look this morning and they are all now having trouble pushing this cold out by next weekend. I hold out hope for their terrible cold bias which i was told is normal for this time of year by a meteorologist. The models predicted +2c yesterday and it hit +10c (50f) in edmonton.


If you look at the models, its as if the jet stream and winds freeze in place for 10 days. I am not joking when I say I have never seen this. The first cold spell on monday comes in and does a spin like a tornado and starts pushing off to the midwest and prairies of USA. Somehow, a part of it shoots backwards and blocks two really warm pushes from both the pacfic and one from the north east. In the other models, there is zero warmth coming from the pacific. Its almost as if the pacific has been turned off for ten days. Its not even fighting the arctic. It is cold air coming from the pacific joining the arctic air and it should be warm.


If you made it this far, just know that now the models are shooting for 12 inches of snow and they all agree on the exact same amount this morning which is amazing again in its own right that they agree.


Last thing I can say......Its almost as if this weather is being engineered. There is no reason that there should be full agreement between all the models like this and this far out with zero pacific influence. The meteorologists had to have a conference across the country to ask each other what's going on. They thought it would change but its not changing.


Either way, its damn brutal as the rest of the continent went into spring a long time ago. We still have tons of snow because March has had almost no above average days. Im really worried for all the first responders as they have to work through this. 3 days in a row of heavy snow and -10 highs (12f). And then all the sick people who have to find their way to the hospital or their doctor. Sad stuff.


Either way, I hold out hope that this will all be a dream by next weekend. Something has to give. The average high for this week should be around 8c or 46f.


Vent over. Stay safe and try not to go anywhere.


Lane. Watch out. Many of these models want to spill alot of this cold to you as well even if your forecasts arent showing it yet.

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