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Zeus



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ingrid_vc so. CA zone 9

A very sobering article, but one that clearly demonstrates how and when and why Donald Trump has failed this country so spectacularly.

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heri_cles

nhb 6: Thank you for linking us up to that article.

There was another article by Ron Brownstein linked therein about the different opinions about this pandemic based on location and political ideology. It is worth a read by people from both sides of the aisle.

Red and Blue America Aren’t Experiencing the Same Pandemic


Trump saw the infection maps and thought to himself,, Gee how can I use the concentration of this infection in liberal Blue states to my advantage? Well on Wednesday March 25 at his Chinese Virus Presser he mentioned that he will consider lifting any restrictions in (Red) States with low rates of infection and maybe on his beautiful time line. Oh my, Easter Sunday in the Bible belt with churches filled with joyous trumpers while bodies of victims of CV-19 pile up in NYC.

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dandyfopp

Donnie is team Donnie.


Think of it this way: There are now only two groups of Americans. Group A includes everyone involved in the medical response, whether that’s treating patients, running tests, or manufacturing supplies. Group B includes everyone else, and their job is to buy Group A more time. Group B must now “flatten the curve” by physically isolating themselves from other people to cut off chains of transmission. Given the slow fuse of COVID-19, to forestall the future collapse of the health-care system, these seemingly drastic steps must be taken immediately, before they feel proportionate, and they must continue for several weeks.

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mudhouse

Trump saw the infection maps and thought to himself,, Gee how can I use the concentration of this infection in liberal Blue states to my advantage? Well on Wednesday March 25 at his Chinese Virus Presser he mentioned that he will consider lifting any restrictions in (Red) States with low rates of infection and maybe on his beautiful time line. Oh my, Easter Sunday in the Bible belt with churches filled with joyous trumpers while bodies of victims of CV-19 pile up in NYC.

I'm happy for you to be you, hericles, but I still wish you wouldn't do that.

The country has to look for the best way to balance two critical needs: keeping as much of the population as safe from the virus as possible, and trying to restore the economy to keep the same population safe from losing their homes and employment, to get them enough income to meet their basic needs. This won't be easy, because those two needs will reach a critical point where they're in conflict with each other. Meshing those two needs will take creativity and a willingness to make changes in how we work and live.

It will also take both sides giving each other some breathing room to arrive at any kind of an ongoing consensus that lets us keep moving forward towards a recovery. Vilifying each other is a bad move. It makes us see ourselves as people pitted against each other.

I read the OP and the Brownstein article, too. I agree the two sides see these issues differently. I disagree (no surprise) with Brownstein's ideas about what motivates the right's viewpoints. Right now, though, I care a lot less about deeply exploring our differences. We can do that later.

So you be you, and I'll be me. I think the more we can make try to avoid only seeing things through a red/blue filter, and vilifying the other side, the better we'll be at finding our way through decisions we all have to make, individually and as a country. I think looking at ourselves as Americans trying to get through a crisis and out of a ditch gets us through faster.

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ubro(2a)

This won't be easy, because those two needs will reach a critical point where they're in conflict with each other. Meshing those two needs will take creativity and a willingness to make changes in how we work and live.

It will be hard but I don't agree with the need to mesh the two when it rises to a critical point.

The only thing at that point that matters is lives, the economy will readjust when it is all over, after all it has no where to go but up.

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mudhouse

I have no background at all to make an intelligent prediction about where we'll be in a month. It just seems logical to me that the pressure to start getting some people back to work (in some industries, and some geographical areas) will start ramping up, at the same time that other parts of the country still haven't seen their numbers fall to very low levels.

Also, as we get better at testing for antibodies, we'll probably be able to identify part of the population that would be safer to return to work, and they'll be a separate group from those of us with higher risk because of age and health characteristics, or no developed immunity.

Trying to be realistic, I don't think the younger and/or immune folks will be willing to sacrifice the ability to save their businesses and feed their families, and wait for the entirety of the population to reach some zone of safety. (How do we calibrate what "safe" is, anyway? )

For some small businesses, waiting too long will mean the end of the business. That leads to even more disruption and damage to lives, of a different kind. Suddenly employees have no job to return to.

That's why I think there's going to be a rather contentious, messy gray zone when decisions aren't clear, and the pros and cons will have to be weighed. It's at that point I hope we can avoid seeing ourselves as adversarial red/blue groups.

(Adding, I'm no doubt influenced in my thinking because we had a small business for decades, and I know how much of a knife edge small business survival can be, as you let your own paychecks sit in a drawer because you know they won't clear if you cash them.)

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nhb_6

mudhouse

The country has to look for the best way to balance two critical needs: keeping as much of the population as safe from the virus as possible, and trying to restore the economy to keep the same population safe from losing their homes and employment, to get them enough income to meet their basic needs. This won't be easy, because those two needs will reach a critical point where they're in conflict with each other. Meshing those two needs will take creativity and a willingness to make changes in how we work and live.

The question is what is this critical point where we have to start choosing between

1. saving lives or as you say "keeping as much of the population as safe from the virus as possible"

and

2. standards of living or as you say "trying to restore the economy to keep the same population safe from losing their homes and employment, to get them enough income to meet their basic needs."

I can't help but think about stories I heard as a child from a few relatives that survived WWII, that even concentration camps, labor camps, starvation were not that "critical point" for them and people that perished trying to save lives. The only critical point is when you had to choose life of one person against life of another. Those stories and tears in the eyes of people telling them left huge impression on me personally and these are the moral values I support.

So I will ask you - what is the critical point for you to start choosing between risking lives and standards of living?

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ubro(2a)

Trying to be realistic, I don't think the younger and/or immune folks will be willing to sacrifice the ability to save their businesses and feed their families, and wait for the entirety of the population to reach some zone of safety. (How do we calibrate what "safe" is, anyway? )

Then harsh as it sounds, they are selfish.

ETA safe is when we reach a level of no more cases in a day, safe is when our hospitals are not overrun, no more nurses putting their families at risk and burning out, when patients are not dying by the hundreds.

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nhb_6

mudhouse ,

the other thing I want to add is that I agree with you on

Trying to be realistic, I don't think the younger and/or immune folks will be willing to sacrifice the ability to save their businesses and feed their families, and wait for the entirety of the population to reach some zone of safety. (How do we calibrate what "safe" is, anyway? )

Moreover if I knew that I am already immune and not a potential asymptomatic carrier I would be very happy to volunteer doing whatever is necessary to not just save my job or business but first and foremost to support medical workers in any capacity ( food, cleaning, anything).

The problem of course with that - no available test. And without knowing if they are immune the "young" might be doing more harm than good.

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jerzeegirl (FL zone 9B)(9b)

Sounds like Trump doesn't really understand how viruses work.

Also, we don't know yet whether having this disease confers immunity.

There is too much that we don't know for Trump's idea to be feasible.

Imagine someone in Iowa, for example, ordering from Amazon and the box arrives with COVID hitching a ride. Could happen, right?


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nhb_6

jerzeegirl (FL zone 9B)

Also, we don't know yet whether having this disease confers immunity.


You are right, we do not . I guess I am just finding myself hoping that initial indicators that it does are true.


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mudhouse

The problem of course with that - no available test.

Not true, nhb_6; here's some good news for you:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-immune-test-insigh-idUSKBN21C1KK

(Reuters) - As the United States works overtime to screen thousands for the novel coronavirus, a new blood test offers the chance to find out who may have immunity - a potential game changer in the battle to contain infections and get the economy back on track.

...“Ultimately, this (antibody test) might help us figure out who can get the country back to normal,” Florian Krammer, a professor in vaccinology at Mount Sinai’s Icahn School of Medicine, told Reuters. “People who are immune could be the first people to go back to normal life and start everything up again.”

...Antibody tests won’t face the same bureaucratic hurdles diagnostic testing initially did. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration relaxed its rules last month, and body-fluid tests can proceed to market without full agency review and approval.

Several private companies are already selling tests for Covid-19 antibodies tests outside the US.

*****************************************

nhb_6: Moreover if I knew that I am already immune and not a potential asymptomatic carrier I would be very happy to volunteer doing whatever is necessary to not just save my job or business but first and foremost to support medical workers in any capacity ( food, cleaning, anything).

I would too, nhb_6. And I think many Americans have the same feeling that you and I share. I would rather help than hide, any day. With advances like the covid-19 antibody test, we'll be more able to help each other fight back.

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mudhouse

nhb_6: So I will ask you - what is the critical point for you to start choosing between risking lives and standards of living?

My answer is, we're all doing that already, in our daily lives, and the only difference is scale. I was sheltering in place before my state imposed the order, but I still choose between using my remaining supplies, or going to the store during senior hours for a quick trip to get produce, milk, and eggs. When I go, I'm adding to the risk, for myself, and for others. We already make that choice.

The choices made at state and federal levels about when to remove "shelter in place" orders, which non-essential businesses should be reactivated first, who should be asked to keep sheltering, and so forth will be made based on a review of the changing data. It will be a continuing and evolving process, not a one-off decision made at 2PM on a Tuesday afternoon.

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lurker111

We just got our shelter in place orders today. We have 2 cases here in the city, and 8 in the county. 10 total.

(11 now. Just checked)

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mudhouse

Lurker, our shelter order started three days ago, when we had 83 cases in our state total, and 10 in my county. Now it's 13 in my county.

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chisue

nhb_6 -- Excellent article. Thank you.

Something I didn't see mentioned was how the US is different from other First World nations. It came to my mind after hearing a doctor in NYC comment on the people filling her hospital. She said that for many, this was their first and only contact with any kind of medical service. She also cited the poor general health of many Americans, including that a third are obese.

Unlike our peers in other nations, we have no nationally mandated public health system. Does it take a epidemic of this magnatude to see why the health of 'other people' is vital to *everyone*?

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maifleur03

I think it may slow this summer but mutate again. If it mutates to a milder form while people get it less will be affected with major illness. It could like the 1918 form become even worse. Currently my estimate is 5-8% of the people that have it will develop ARDS. Of that amount the ones that survive will be left with life long health damage from it. It will take several years for it to change to a form that no longer affects people.

Things that will happen are food shortages because of the lack of facilities that do not have active cases among the workers. Also lack of workers to tend and pick those crops.

People left with large medical bills which the bill that the Senate just passed did nothing. Remains to see what Trump promised to the insurance companies so that they cover any of the illness cause by the virus. I saw where Aetna said they were absorbing the costs this morning but I would not count on total absorption

Small businesses unable to reopen because owners are deceased or unable to continue because of their or family health situation.

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ubro(2a)

Stay safe lurker and mudhouse.

We just got notification that in our little town a gathering was catered by two people who tested positive. Thankfully we did not go, but we know many who did.

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nhb_6

mudhouse

The problem of course with that - no available test.

Not true, nhb_6; here's some good news for you:


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

When I said "no available tests" i did not mean that tests do not exists. I am well aware that research labs have developed and are continuing to develop assays suitable to detect specifically SARS-COV-2 antibodies. I think this was one of the first examples:


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1


But as far as I know we are still a ways from those tests being available in US as in " I can take it now and find out if I am already immune" so I can either donate blood for passive plasma therapy ( see here https://www.gardenweb.com/discussions/5885534/proposed-covid-19s-stop-gap-solution ) or help cleaning toilets.


I hope it'll happen fast but knowing how unprepared we were with PPEs and tests for direct detection of virus I am not that hopeful. I'd love to be wrong though.


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nhb_6

mudhouse

nhb_6: So I will ask you - what is the critical point for you to start choosing between risking lives and standards of living?

My answer is, we're all doing that already, in our daily lives, and the only difference is scale. I was sheltering in place before my state imposed the order, but I still choose between using my remaining supplies, or going to the store during senior hours for a quick trip to get produce, milk, and eggs. When I go, I'm adding to the risk, for myself, and for others. We already make that choice.

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Are you going to the store because you are trying to support economy (to keep the same population safe from losing their homes and employment, to get them enough income to meet their basic needs. )? Or are you going to the store because it is necessary for you to sustain your health through proper nutrition? It sounds to me that it is more of the second, correct?

I would hope that our society is smart and humain enough to support people that are currently unable to work through other means. I do not think we need to send them back to work when it is clear that it is not safe for them and for "essential" workers at this point. And I certainly hope that we would not choose to congregate in churches to celebrate Easter while pandemic is in full swing.

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The choices made at state and federal levels about when to remove "shelter in place" orders, which non-essential businesses should be reactivated first, who should be asked to keep sheltering, and so forth will be made based on a review of the changing data. It will be a continuing and evolving process, not a one-off decision made at 2PM on a Tuesday afternoon.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fully agree . I just hope that this process will not be rushed because we do not want to see our profits and stock market gains disappear while ignoring scientists and health workers that are warning us about significant loss of life.

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nhb_6

maifleur03

Things that will happen are food shortages because of the lack of facilities that do not have active cases among the workers. Also lack of workers to tend and pick those crops.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This true and it could potentially get bad. But even then, starvation is a much slower killer than this virus. During WWII my mom as kid had to survive for months at a time on combination of rotten/frozen potatoes and tree bark. I would not wish it on anybody but she is alive and well now. So we could survive shortages, of course if country is capable of managing it properly. Plus I would hope the country is prepared with strategic resources. Or maybe we are not?

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People left with large medical bills which the bill that the Senate just passed did nothing. Remains to see what Trump promised to the insurance companies so that they cover any of the illness cause by the virus. I saw where Aetna said they were absorbing the costs this morning but I would not count on total absorption

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hey, crazy thought here - maybe it's time to agree that access to health care is universal human right and do something about it?


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nhb_6

chisue

Something I didn't see mentioned was how the US is different from other First World nations. It came to my mind after hearing a doctor in NYC comment on the people filling her hospital. She said that for many, this was their first and only contact with any kind of medical service. She also cited the poor general health of many Americans, including that a third are obese.

Unlike our peers in other nations, we have no nationally mandated public health system. Does it take a epidemic of this magnitude to see why the health of 'other people' is vital to *everyone*?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You are bringing up an excellent point.

In another thread here somebody was proudly stating that according to Global Health Security Index, US is "the country best prepared for health emergencies".

Well, here is the link to that assessment:

https://www.ghsindex.org/

And yes, we did get the highest score. We are supposedly doing well in a lot of areas but if you look under Health/ 4.3) Healthcare access we are :

number 175 out of 195 assessed countries, right between Gambia and Sierra Leone, and last in the category of high income countries!!!

Of course you could debate how accurate that assessment is - after all, it was first of this kind - but nevertheless....

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Joaniepoanie

On Lawrence O tonight, Dr. Zeke Emanuel, former health advisor to Obama, said the window for defeating the virus is closing. He said the entire country needs a minimum of an eight week period of lockdown, but with states making their own decisions it will be very difficult to contain.

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heri_cles

Some of us here have said for weeks now that Trump should have locked down the country rather than allowing States to act one at a time as though this is a regional issue. His failure of leadership should cost him the Presidency in November.

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elvis

heri_cles

Some of us here have said for weeks now that Trump should have locked down the country rather than allowing States to act one at a time as though this is a regional issue.

The Constitution’s articles, and the subsequent Amendments, specify the prerogatives of the Feds. They are listed in Article I, Sec. 8; Articles II-V; Amendments XIII-XVI, XIX-XX, XXIII-XXVI. These prerogatives belong to one of the following categories:

1) Defense, war prosecution, peace, foreign relations, foreign commerce, and interstate commerce;

2) The protection of citizens’ constitutional rights (e.g the right to vote) and ensuring that slavery remains illegal;

3) Establishing federal courts inferior to the SCOTUS;

4) Copyright protection;

5) Coining money;

6) Establishing post offices and post roads;

7) Establishing a national set of universal weights and measures;

8 ) Taxation needed to raise revenue to perform these essential functions.

Those are the only prerogatives of the Feds. The Tenth Amendment states that all prerogatives not explicitly given to the Federal Government, nor prohibited of the states, are reserved to the states or to the people (i.e. individual Americans). So the Feds are not allowed to handle any issues not explicitly listed in the Constitution; their prerogatives are limited to what the Constitution explicitly states.

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arthurm2015(Micro-Climate, Zone 10b Sydney, Australia)

Just curious, how many of the States have imposed severe lockdowns?

There are only a few states here, so generally life might be easier for the Federal Politicians.

Here......

Pubs, clubs, churches, church halls all closed.

Labour intensive types of small business closed.

Most sport closed, so no footbrawl of any type this coming winter.

Funerals 10 person limit

Weddings 5 person limit.

The local golf-course is open, but the club-house is closed. Only one person allowed to ride in a golf cart.

Only ventured out a few times in the last couple of weeks.

The rescue package is mostly aimed at the casual and small business type workers who have lost their jobs.

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how2girl



That begs a rhetorical (cynical) question; what’s the likelihood the designated “high-risk” counties will all or almost all be blue, or might just happen to lean blue and restrictions affecting voting access will be put in place in these areas?


Blue counties are highly populated & would deliver the highest margins of defeat - just wait & see which counties are named. Not forgetting counties with sanctuary cities as well.

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nhb_6

elvis

The Constitution’s articles, and the subsequent Amendments, specify the prerogatives of the Feds. They are listed in Article I, Sec. 8; Articles II-V; Amendments XIII-XVI, XIX-XX, XXIII-XXVI. These prerogatives belong to one of the following categories:

1) Defense, war prosecution, peace, foreign relations, foreign commerce, and interstate commerce;

2) The protection of citizens’ constitutional rights (e.g the right to vote) and ensuring that slavery remains illegal;

3) Establishing federal courts inferior to the SCOTUS;

4) Copyright protection;

5) Coining money;

6) Establishing post offices and post roads;

7) Establishing a national set of universal weights and measures;

8 ) Taxation needed to raise revenue to perform these essential functions.

Those are the only prerogatives of the Feds. The Tenth Amendment states that all prerogatives not explicitly given to the Federal Government, nor prohibited of the states, are reserved to the states or to the people (i.e. individual Americans). So the Feds are not allowed to handle any issues not explicitly listed in the Constitution; their prerogatives are limited to what the Constitution explicitly states.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I am trying to understand, are you saying that:

1. National security is not responsibility of the federal government.

or that

2. This pandemic is not matter of National security.

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Cindy Outter

3 most basic questions:

How does Trump determine which area's risk level? What criteria, bases, measurements is he using without knowing:

1. the total number of people who are infected, exposed, and receiving treatments.

2. the total number of medical facilities and their current, future supples, equipments, protection gears, and staff availability and demands.

3. Does he also have done research and analysis for best and worst scenario in all categories?

Those are questions from a layperson like me who knows nothing about healthcare, I bet medical professionals would ask many more.

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elvis

There's a bigger picture here than how many ventilators NYC might need. I recommend you read the whole article, here's part:

...the virus came from China and became a pandemic principally because of Chinese mismanagement of the initial response. It is possible that one or more of these countries is also behind a recent hack of the Department of Health and Human Services and the spread of misinformation suggesting a nationwide quarantine in the United States was underway likely to increase panic among U.S. citizens," he continued. "It is possible that if these states feel the United States is distracted or weakened in the coming weeks or months, they could also take other actions including seizing disputed territory of their neighbors or other aggressive actions."

Nonetheless, the potential of a pandemic has always sat in the back pocket of the U.S. intelligence community. A threat assessment by the Office of the Director of the National Intelligence released early last year drew specific attention to such a health modality.

"We assess that the United States and the world will remain vulnerable to the next flu pandemic or large-scale outbreak of a contagious disease that could lead to massive rates of death and disability, severely affect the world economy, strain international resources, and increase calls on the United States for support," it said...

The report explicitly highlighted that a growing area of concern was the animal to human transmission of deadly pathogens, which is how the coronavirus is believed to have emerged out of the sprawling China city of Wuhan.

"The intelligence community has issued public warning after public warning about the threat of a pandemic reaching our shore," noted Ned Price, the director of policy and communications at National Security Action. "What's more, China has always been a high-priority intelligence target, and it is a safe assumption that U.S. intelligence had its sights trained on the emergence of this novel strain from its very first days."...

"A pandemic will likely make the government face the question of invoking Posse Comitatus, which would allow the military to operate domestically. Remember, a core component of the Constitution and the Revolution was to build a system where the government could not easily use the military internally," he said. "In this case, the military could be used to build field hospitals if the civilian health-care system gets overloaded, to enforce quarantines, etc. I can't see this not impacting deployments in some way. If nothing else, troops will get sick too, and barracks, like cruise ships, are the perfect place to spread germs."...

"Finally, there is the danger that extreme social distancing measures could interfere with the basic continuity of operations of organizations like the Department of Defense or the intelligence community," Brands added. "Where remote work is often not possible."

https://www.foxnews.com/us/how-the-coronavirus-pandemic-threatens-u-s-national-security

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ubro(2a)

...the virus came from China and became a pandemic principally because of Chinese mismanagement of the initial response.


Absolutely, and the continuation of that pandemic these past couple of months is due to the mismanagement of governments.

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lurker111

A man in China died from the hantavirus a few days ago. No cause for alarm, humans can't spread it...yet.

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nhb_6

elvis ,

the article you posted directly relates to what I was asking you above:

Do you consider pandemic to be a matter of national security or not?

This is pretty good article that does not really have a lot of new information. To me it is a good reminder of how complicated National Security is and how dire the situation is right now.

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