Projects for the Pandemic
katob Z6ish, NE Pa
4 years ago
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violetsnapdragon
4 years agorouge21_gw (CDN Z5b/6a)
4 years agoRelated Discussions
Is the pandemic affecting your reno?
Comments (350)Hi @AboutToGetDusty, I would not venture an answer alone, don’t listen to anyone who would, but I can pass along the following info from the CDC: “...transmission of novel coronavirus to persons from surfaces contaminated with the virus has not been documented.... It is unknown how long the air inside a room occupied by someone with confirmed COVID-19 remains potentially infectious.” They don’t know. Work from the National Institutes of Health, CDC, UCLA and Princeton University published in the New England Journal of Medicine shows that the virus that causes COVID-19: “... was detectable in aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel.” So it sounds like the virus in respiratory droplets is undetectable in the air after a few hours, and on surfaces after a few days - and they have not confirmed a case of transmission from a surface. I’ve been leaving boxes and mail untouched for three days. In the end you’re going to have to make a decision based on your best common sense....See MoreBuild Prices After Corona Virus Pandemic
Comments (38)Georgia is approaching a complete shutdown. Even with a state of emergency declared in Toronto, construction sites remain exempted. But the Premier yesterday said that any construction workers who feel unsafe due to COVID-19 should leave. No fun when construction shuts down in the middle. I've been there when clients ran out of money for a month!...See MoreWhat will happen with remodeling after the worst of the pandemic?
Comments (38)Here is my 2 cents and worth at least half that... We have to remember that "the economy" is not some abstract thing. It is income for people. GDP is literally the compensation people receive for their efforts. This compounds because of the GDP multiplier, simply put... If you lose your job the GDP loses more than your wages, because you spend your money on things like rent, food, entertainment, clothes, etc. Those businesses where you spend your money use it to pay their employees who use it buy stuff so still other businesses can pay their employees. So the economic effect of 10% more unemployment can be large. The current GDPNow estimate (which uses indicators to estimate actual GDP and is not a projection) is scary, the latest estimate is -41.9%. I assure you, you are going to feel a 42% contraction in GDP. Yes, construction is still going, house prices are up, etc. However, that doesn't mean a lot, as the government and businesses have done lots of things to delay the pain, but they have not erased it. I am just letting renters who can't pay rent right now live for free, I am planning on crediting all my renters 3 months free rent, but if they don't go back to work I am eventually going to have to evict them. I can let people live rent free during a pandemic but I can't do it forever. However, it is going to change the money I have available to invest and the same is true for a lot of people. We still need people investing in bonds and MBS's to fuel the mortgage machine and they are not, so something is going to have to happen there. Maybe mortgage rates that are effectively negative. That has been done before and it does work, but there is the moral hazard problem. The government can keep injecting money during the pandemic and delay the pain Keynesian style, but eventually they will have to stop. ----- Here is my projection, it is an educated projection, but it is still just a guess. Actually, my projection is OK, it is my assumptions that are questionable. There will be a slow down in entry level home purchases (which drive the entire housing market). Houses will not lose that much value but they will slow down appreciation, largely this is going to happen because the number of buyers and sellers will both go down. The HELOC market is going to get tighter. We are going to move away from 100% & 95% LTV and go back to 80% and 85% LTV. Rates will stay down but approval will be a bit more difficult, and you will see more actual appraisals ordered. The low wage labor market will get a lot more competitive and construction wages will drop. Construction costs will drop with that and construction will become a bit more competitive. However, we could also see people more willing to improve existing homes than sell, so it might balance out and just become more profitable. In general, I believe there is a serious possibility that we see a change in liquidity versus equity. For years we have seen people preach about paying off your house because we have had a few asset bubbles in the last 30 years... Now we are seeing a liquidity crunch, where people with paid off houses and little savings are driving to food banks in order to eat. I suspect we may see people start valuing cash savings over home equity. I also believe the rental rates will become more competitive for the next 5 years. So that may have positive or negative affects on home value depending on your area. --- If you use any of that stuff above to make a decision, well you're a gambler. My advice to clients today is largely the same as it was before with a few modifications. If you are making a move I would suggest you not depend on a quick sale of your existing property. It may sell quick and that is great but make sure you can make two payments significantly longer than you hope to. You can't eat your shingles, don't sacrifice access to liquidity for equity. Until we can see past this, which will be a couple of months from now, plan but don't execute....See MoreCan I paint walls prior to stucco removal & fixing recessed lights?
Comments (3)I agree that stuff off the ceiling will go everywhere no matter how careful it is removed in fact I would not even bother priming the walls until the mess id done since you will find little bits everywhere....See Morececily 7A
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4 years agoLinda's Garden z6 Utah
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4 years ago
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woodyoak zone 5 southern Ont., Canada