Has Trump’s approval rating really shot up to 49%? Probably not.

dublinbay z6 (KS)

Interesting article on factors influencing poll results--and leaving questions about the reliability of the recent Gallup Poll that gave Trump a 49% approval rating--you know, the poll everybody has been repeating as though it were the Almighty's pronouncement coming down from the mountaintop!

It is NOT.

--------------------

"More Republicans — and fewer Democrats — are responding to pollsters. That could skew the results.

[. . .]

But is Trump really getting more popular? His recent polling gains have the hallmarks of a specific kind of polling error called differential nonresponse bias.

. . . [D]ifferential nonresponse bias refers to situations in which changes in polling results are caused by shifts in who responds to the polls rather than actual changes in public opinion. It may be that Trump’s approval is going up because Democrats feel demoralized by the apparently hopeless impeachment trial and so don’t feel like talking to pollsters. Or it could be that Republicans feel so moved to support Trump at when he’s under attack that they are more likely to talk to pollsters than usual.

[. . .]

If differential nonresponse is driving these changes in Trump’s job approval, there should be a clear relationship between the ratio of Democrats to Republicans in survey samples and Trump’s approval ratings. At the most basic level, samples in recent polls do indeed skew a little more than 1 percentage point more Republican.

[. . .]

[Note: I can't get the chart to reproduce. See the source link.]

As you can see, as the relative number of Democrats increases, Trump’s approval decreases. With Gallup, it looks like almost all the variation in Trump’s job approval from one poll to the next can be explained just by looking at how many of each party’s supporters are in their sample.

[. . .]

The model also suggests that even after accounting for differential nonresponse, Trump may have gained somewhat in net approval since August, perhaps 2 percentage points (or roughly half the increase detected by FiveThirtyEight’s tracker). But that upward trend goes away when I restrict the analysis to polls that measure partisanship best, by including “leaners” who call themselves independent but later disclose a clear preference for one party over the other.

This means there is reason to believe Trump’s historically stable job approval hasn’t changed much since before the impeachment process began."


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/06/has-trumps-approval-rating-really-shot-up-49-percent-probably-not/

--------------------------------


There are all sorts of "mysteries" about how polling is done--but this article does a good job in de-mystifying at least certain aspects of the process.

What it does conclude is that Trump's approval ratings are probably still hovering down in the lower 40s. No big jump to nearly 50%. Nope--not at all!

Actually, just browsing over headlines, I also noticed that Gallup's polls just a few weeks ago rated Trump much lower--and I've seen no explanation why that assessment would suddenly stand on its head in the most recent Gallup poll. Certainly, impeachment news seems to have had no effect on Trump's approval rating--yet media all over the place were shouting the "good news" from Gallup.

Er. . . the "false news" from the outlier source (Gallup).

Kate

SaveComment13Like1
Comments (13)
Thank you for reporting this comment. Undo
ohiomom

Gallup is the least accurate of all polls ... but I can see why some would hop on that wagon.

Trump is holding steady at 43% since he sat down in the people's house.


2 Likes Save    
Thank you for reporting this comment. Undo
Kathy

Remember Trump had Cohen skewing polls for him. Someone must be working at it now that Cohen is in jail.

1 Like Save    
Thank you for reporting this comment. Undo
Nana H

538 has a different mix of pollsters and rates them based on their methods, etc.

Save    
Thank you for reporting this comment. Undo
paprikash

OK, then I guess a democrat will win in November.

2 Likes Save    
Thank you for reporting this comment. Undo
aegis1000

538's average of the most well-regarded polls has him at 43%

3 Likes Save    
Thank you for reporting this comment. Undo
marquest(PA zone 6)

That explains the large percent to the question of are you better off. The question could mean anything. The tRump crowd do not seem to appreciate an America as a country striving to be the best but prefer being the dumbest, not concerned with clean water, education, best health care.

So if you are in a lower mind set and wished for the worst of course they feel "Better off", It would fit a poll conducted with a majority of a low expectation crowd.

2 Likes Save    
Thank you for reporting this comment. Undo
lurker111

I really don't understand why the crats hate Trump. He's doing a great job. I know they don't believe the propaganda they use against him. They sound like a bunch of gossiping teenagers.

1 Like Save    
Thank you for reporting this comment. Undo
Rina

How can you possibly know what other people believe? Been crawling around any interesting cortexes lately?

5 Likes Save    
Thank you for reporting this comment. Undo
dublinbay z6 (KS)

"I know they [Dems.] don't believe the propaganda they use against him [Trump]. "

Correction:

Democrats do believe the information they use against Trump.

Kate

2 Likes Save    
Thank you for reporting this comment. Undo
adoptedbyhounds

Democrats do believe the information they use against Trump.

I agree Kate. They believed he could never be elected, they believed he would quickly be removed from office after he was seated, and they took Adam Schiff's word for it that he had "ample evidence" of Trump's supposed "wrongdoing."

Had that been true, Schiff's staff would have had no need to assist a fake WB in filling out a WB form with second hand information. Real evidence would have been a lot less trouble than making it up, and then lying, as Schiff did, about ever talking to the fake WB.


1 Like Save    
Thank you for reporting this comment. Undo
sheesh(5b)

Lurker believes she knows what democrats believe, then abh comes along with what republicans believe.

1 Like Save    
Thank you for reporting this comment. Undo
carolb_w_fl_coastal_9b(zone 9/10)

Characterizing it as information and not as lies and slander is certainly a step in the right direction...

2 Likes Save    
Thank you for reporting this comment. Undo
sheesh(5b)

Very true, Carolb_w.

2 Likes Save    
Browse Gardening and Landscaping Stories on Houzz See all Stories
The Polite House The Polite House: On ‘No Shoes’ Rules and Breaking Up With Contractors
Emily Post’s great-great-granddaughter gives us advice on no-shoes policies and how to graciously decline a contractor’s bid
Full Story
Dining Rooms Forever Furniture: A Buyer’s Guide to the Dining Table
There comes a time when a make-do piece of furniture won’t do. We give you a leg up on choosing the right table for you
Full Story
Homes Around the World Houzz Tour: A London Townhouse Lightens Up
A dramatic redesign of this multistory home transforms its dark 1970s-era interior into an all-white Scandinavian idyll
Full Story