Trump aides say he can't win in 2020 with just his base

dublinbay z6 (KS)

Interesting analysis of Trump's chances in 2020.

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[. . .]

The challenge facing Trump’s advisers remains the same as it has been since 2017: The president is among the most deeply divisive leaders in the nation’s history, whose conduct has helped accelerate a realignment of moderate suburban voters toward Democrats. . . .

Trump cannot win a second term without attracting more suburban voters and independents in a handful of states he carried in 2016, but he is highly averse to staying on script and delivering a consistent message aimed at moderate voters rather than his hard-core admirers, or his own need to get things off his chest.

[. . .]

“I think the biggest problem that he has with suburban women is the part that so many in his base like about him,” Cramer said. “His rhetoric, his punching down at his opponents. It’s so different than anything they’ve seen.”

[. . .]

. . . suburban women remain difficult to sway, Trump advisers acknowledge. Some messages have moved the dial, if only temporarily: When Trump talks about Democrats wanting to provide government health care benefits to unauthorized immigrants, for instance, Republican officials have seen an uptick of support in their own surveys of the suburbs of Pennsylvania. When Trump paints the entire Democratic field, falsely, as supporting ending private health insurance, his advisers see room for him to grow. But they admit that it’s a difficult line to walk.

[. . .]

His 62-minute stemwinder of retribution in the East Room of the White House the day after the acquittal was the type of ventilating performance Trump had been craving, but which some advisers acknowledge undermines the carefully-crafted efforts at broadening his appeal.

“Many people are evaluating the president based on his conduct and behavior in office rather than the state of the economy,” said Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster. “It’s his conduct and behavior in office that have kept a foot on his job approval rating. Any other president would be in the upper 50s or even low 60s with this economy.”

Most of the president’s aides concede that his base of supporters is not enough to reelect him, and that he must attract the voters who were repelled by his behavior and voted against Republicans in the 2018 midterms — particularly upscale whites, suburban women and self-described independent voters who polls repeatedly show think the president is racist, or has a troubling temperament, or both.

[. . . ]

What’s unclear, and what could prove decisive, is whether the country is exhausted by Trump and is ready for a so-called return to normalcy, or if voters have grown inured to his eruptions and have effectively priced in his behavior.

A key factor will be the candidate the Democrats eventually nominate. Interviews with more than a dozen Republican strategists, lawmakers and state chairs reveal a consensus that Sen. Bernie Sanders would be the easiest Democrat for them to beat because they believe his avowed socialism would help them reclaim suburbanites and better frame the election as a choice.

[. . .]

Sanders’ aides, of course, see it very differently and believe that they would tear up Trump’s 2016 electoral map by reclaiming working-class white voters in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, something some Trump advisers agree with. And Trump advisers have been caught by surprise by the success of Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana.”


https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-list-back-suburbs-court-163440962.html

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The OP is actually about twice as long, if you are interested in reading more.

Never quite saw myself as rooting for suburban women, but several analyses I've read recently, like this one, are successfully convincing me that I need to spread my wings wider to include them also. They may well be key to the 2020 election.

Kate


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catkinZ8a

Suburban women like money, I bet.

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gyr_falcon(Sunset 23)

But he doesn't have just his base. He has Russia, and probably a few other countries, to help him win. And the republican party, senate, and his unqualified judges to insist it is real.

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ohiomom

Let the Trump be Trump .... do not censor his language. His people love him. He does not need the rest of us (^_^)

ETA: Aides cannot tell him what to do, he is the Trump

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lurker111

I don't know why anyone would bother to read such nonsense.

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Toby

I don't know why anyone would bother to post such nonsense about not reading something that they obviously read to decide it's nonsense.

Kate, I'm not sure what you mean by your remark about not rooting for suburban women. I'm your typical educated white suburban woman and know many like me and we vote Democrat. I know suburban white men who would never vote for Trump. Some have even been life-long Republicans but are now Independents because of him.

Polls seem to indicate that the Dems can either pursue the educated suburban woman and rural vote with a moderate candidate, the youth vote with Bernie, or the black vote with Biden. One group is a reliable voter and the others vote if they like the candidate. As we go to the primary, I know we all wish we had a crystal ball to see which candidate will get out the voters.

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lurker111

I don't know why anyone would bother to post such nonsense about not
reading something that they obviously read to decide it's nonsense.

The first paragraph was enough. The title was enough. Do you really think that any of the crats can win with "just their base"? Silliness for the gullible.

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Toby

Just looking at voter affiliation with the parties tells you that no candidate can win with just their base. Trump's aides acknowledge that they have a problem with white suburban women yet Trump won't change his rhetoric for fear of losing the base. What his followers love about Trump is exactly what turns off white suburban women like me. I say keep feeding that red meat to the base.

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lurker111

I have a lot of "white suburban women" in my family that would disagree with you. Reality meets crat propaganda.

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leona_2008

Toby, that is an excellent point that one group is a reliable voter and the others only if they like the candidate. We need to shake the other two out of their complacency and get the message out that trump is as bad as they fear, only much, much worse. The checks and balances we've all took for granted are not working and he is a worse threat to this country than any terrorist or Russia has ever been..

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Toby

Don't you live in a very red state, lurker? It's the swing states that matter and also Congressional districts.

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lurker111

I live in a very blue area and most of the people in my family are lifelong crats, and voting for Trump, and leaving the crats behind. That party no longer exists. Nothing but crazy people. Texas isn't as red as many of you believe. There are a lot of true blue democrats in this area that have more in common with Trump than what the crats have become. Austin is sick.

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bfox254

I'm one of those white educated suburban women living in a swing state. I'm also a registered republican. Trump has done nothing to win me over. At this point, I can't imagine anything he could do that would change my mind. He has to go.

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Toby

Who would you choose for the Dem nominee, bfox?

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Annie Deighnaugh

What we need to go after are the 40% of eligible voters who didn't vote in 2016...they hold the power to determine the outcome of the next election.

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bfox254

I'm looking at Bloomberg right now and think with Amy K. as VP, he has a very good chance of beating Trump. I like some of the others as well. Biden would have been my choice initially, I think he would be a very good president. He just doesn't seem to have what it takes to get through this election process. The only one I would have a difficult time voting for is Sanders, however I'd take him over Trump.

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lurker111

Amy destroyed herself in the Kavanaugh hearings. Who is going to vote for someone who pretends to be offended by the word "brewsky"? So pretentious. There is no place in politics for her type.

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bfox254

I'd vote for her. If that's the worst you can say about Amy, she's looking pretty good

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Toby

Oh come now. If there's a place in politics for Trump's type, anyone can be president.

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lurker111

Trump is the epitome of what our country needs.

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Iris GW

Trump is the epitome of what our country needs.

More con men?

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dublinbay z6 (KS)

Toby, didn't mean to offend you with my suburban woman voter comment. I was just referring to not having that demographic on my radar screen in the past--working class voters, for instance, got lots of attention from the Democrats, but I heard many election night analyses in 2016 refer to the suburban women vote as leaning Republican. However, that is certainly remedied now, isn't it! Suburban women have the attention of everybody now!

Go, suburban women, go!

: )

Kate

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lurker111

Same nonsense from 2016. ^^^

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lurker111

Anyway, base against base...Trump wins hands down.

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Joaniepoanie

Besides Russia, Trump also has gerrymandering, voter suppression, purging voter rolls and every other dirty trick Republicans need to win. Maybe even Ivanka’s pre-programmed voting machines—-who would be surprised?

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bfox254

The referenced suburban women are a lost cause for Trump. A typical candidate could pivot on policy to attract that demographic, but you can't suddenly pivot and make yourself a person of honor and integrity.

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lurker111


The referenced suburban women are a lost cause for Trump.

Circa 2016 ^^^

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bfox254

A look at the 2018 midterm results tell a different story

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lurker111

That story hasn't been told, yet. We'll get there.

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Toby

I wasn't offended, Kate. I guess I don't see much difference between suburban women and working class women.

Healthcare is the #1 issue for suburban women. The people who worry about immigrants and gun rights as their two top issues (Republicans) likely have all their other needs met. Must be nice to have the luxury to worry about stuff like that.

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adoptedbyhounds

. . . suburban women remain difficult to sway, Trump advisers acknowledge. Some messages have moved the dial, if only temporarily: When Trump talks about Democrats wanting to provide government health care benefits to unauthorized immigrants, for instance, Republican officials have seen an uptick of support in their own surveys of the suburbs of Pennsylvania.

No surprise there. Dems haven't met the needs of their own constituents, but that hasn't stopped them giving the needs of illegal aliens top billing. No wonder Dems are struggling. They don't even remember who they promised to serve.

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bfox254

It's interesting that Trump advisors attempt to move the dial by bashing democrats on health care issues. Meanwhile, they'd have much better success if they actually had their own health care plan to offer. Gutting the affordable care act is not a plan.

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Toby

Loved Amy's comment at the last debate:

Obamacare is 20 points more popular than the president.

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vgkg (Va Z-7)

Trump Healthcare policy? Repeal and keep on repealing. The only health care policy the repubs want to keep - Survival of The Fittest. It has worked just fine for millenia so why tinker with it?...and the premiums are free.

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bfox254

Democrats would do well to replay some of Trump's healthcare promises made during the last election. It's been three years of nothing and would make an effective ad. Remember repeal and replace? It's been all repeal with no replace.

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Annie Deighnaugh


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Joaniepoanie

Of course we’d love to see Trump gone, but flipping the Senate is just as important, if not more.

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leona_2008

Yeah, replay the impeachment trial in your head with Democrats having the majority. Imagine having checks and balances that actually works!

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lurker111

You still need 67 votes to remove. Good luck.

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vgkg (Va Z-7)

Only need 19 more votes with a Romney-like conscience to do what's right.

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Nana H

There also would have been key witness testimony that may very well have made the difference.

Long shot but the Senate just might flip.

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lurker111

Long shot but the Senate just might flip.

It's okay to dream.

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vgkg (Va Z-7)

Yeah I know lurker, it is hard to imagine that repubs will do what's right.

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barncatz

Amy destroyed herself in the Kavanaugh hearings. Who is going to vote for someone who pretends to be offended by the word "brewsky"? So pretentious. There is no place in politics for her type.


I've been wondering about this comment. Amy ties herself pretty closely to her iron ore mining grandfather; her columnist father, who hung around the office where I worked because he was friends with a partner there, was also very blue collar.

I watched the Kavanaugh hearings where she was trying to find a way for Kavanaugh to be telling the truth because drinking might have impaired his recollection. Kavanaugh insultingly questioned her about blackout drinking instead -- one of his many hearing behavior no-nos where he knew better and did it anyway. Klobuchar kept her cool, he ended up apologizing to her and she accepted it.

I don't remember "brewsky", much less Klobuchar's offense at the term, just a lot of "I like beer"; so I would be curious to see the source for this claim. Citation?

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woodnymph2_gw

I remember that Kavanagh hearing well. Amy was admirable in how she handled it all in a calm, reasonable manner. It was he who ended up looking inept and foolish.

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lurker111

Difference of opinion. I saw a pretentious, conniving, agenda driven snob, attempting to smear a good, honest person.

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barncatz

Apparently Kavanaugh's opinion is not the same as yours.

(And maybe delete your Klobuchar "brewsky" comment above since Klobuchar didn't do what you claim.Who is going to vote for someone who pretends to be offended by the word "brewsky"? Not a difference of opinion -- your statement/ question is not a FACT.)

Following the tense exchange a short recess was taken and upon returning Kavanaugh took a moment to apologize to the senator.

"I was going to say, I started my last colloquy by saying to Senator Klobuchar how much I respect her and respected what she did at the last hearing, and she asked me a question at the end that I responded to by asking her a question,” he said. “I’m sorry I did that. This is a tough process. I’m sorry about that."

Bolding mine

https://time.com/5409176/kavanaugh-apologizes-senator-klobuchar-black-out-drunk/

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Joaniepoanie

A good, honest person doesn’t rack up $150,000 in debt for gambling and sports tickets and get it mysteriously paid off just as he’s nominated for a seat on the SC. That alone should have disqualified him, but it sure wouldn't be a surprise if Trump paid it off for him.

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justerrilynn(10)

There are many layers to the suburban women tag. Saying that though I think Trump would only have a problem with the nucleus of the group. I personally don’t think he will ever reach that part. It’s confusing because that segment wants victim status without being a victim. They want confirmation but it’s unclear for what. Regardless, I don’t believe that section will break as there’s to much long awaited camaraderie and women’s movement mindset.


I do think Trump can reach the fringes and outer layers of suburban females. Women are witnessing how our country is improving. They are sensible and know they don’t necessarily have to like Trump personally to know he’s doing a great job of running the country.


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bfox254

Exact opposite of what's posted above. Suburban women demonstrated during the 2018 midterms they're not willing to hold their nose and vote for someone they find repugnant.

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Toby

Trying to make some sense of your post, justerrilyn, but I need you to define who is the nucleus of the suburban women group to proceed.

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nancy_in_venice_ca Sunset 24 z10

It’s confusing because that segment wants victim status without being a victim.

The above statement is confusing -- victim status for what?

Is this akin to some white Christians claiming that they are persecuted when white Christians are the ruling elites in DC?

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