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haydayhayday

FOAS:

"This one"


One nice thing about the bettors: They're on top of the news and the first to make the reports to the rest of us who sleep.


https://results.thecaucuses.org/


Hay

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haydayhayday

I heard it here first. Just now. The market flipped really quickly.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5241/Who-will-win-the-2020-Iowa-Democratic-caucuses


Read the comments from people who spend all day there. They're the ones to follow if you want the latest news.


The bettors may not always be right in the end, but, at the moment, they're on top of the latest news. A good reason to keep them in mind.

Sill a wild horse race, but there's the latest news.

Hay

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haydayhayday

The betting markets.... the Stock Market being the biggest example.... is a "leading indicator".

And here's a good example.

Things could still turn. That's not the point. The point is, "you heard it here first."

Why I'm tuned in to the betting markets.

Hay

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haydayhayday

Before I posted this new thread, I had tried to post the same on this older thread and it just wouldn't show up for the rest of you.

(In case it does show up, you'll know why.)


https://www.gardenweb.com/discussions/5863501/sotu-reaction-from-the-other-side#n=126

Hay

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haydayhayday

And the news is now hitting the News.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/politics/iowa-caucus-results/index.html


Pete Buttigieg keeps narrow lead in Iowa caucuses with 100% of precincts reporting

By Dan Merica, Jeff Zeleny and Adam Levy, CNN

Updated 9:24 PM ET, Thu February 6, 2020

You heard it here first.

From the bettors.

Hay



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foodonastump

I’m just not sure what’s impressive. They shift and flip with the news. Sure, if they’ve got money at stake they’re probably hitting the refresh button a bit more incessantly than the rest of us.

So they’ve flipped four times in the last 24. At what time today did you look at this and feel confident? Do you feel confident right now?

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foodonastump

I apologize, Hay. You addressed my question right in your OP. They just watch and react to the news faster.

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foodonastump

Funny thing, that’s my #1 reason for coming to HT. Lazy way to be on top of the news. My wife comes home from work and says “Did you hear...” and I finish the sentence for her 9 times out of 10.

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foodonastump

I tried to lighten the mood by posting to this thread earlier:

https://www.gardenweb.com/discussions/5726634/i-wanna-new-volvo#n=14

Didn’t bump up. Can you see today’s post on it?

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haydayhayday

I just lost my electricity so I need to jump off and conserve my power.

I can go to your link and see your posts from today.

I can see my posts on the other thread. Like I posted above, but YOU can't.

Different set of problems.

https://www.gardenweb.com/discussions/5863501/sotu-reaction-from-the-other-side#n=126

Need to sign off.

bye.

Hay

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elvis

Yes, Food, from 4 hours ago?

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haydayhayday

FOAS:


"I’m just not sure what’s impressive. They shift and flip with the news. Sure, if they’ve got money at stake they’re probably hitting the refresh button a bit more incessantly than the rest of us.

So they’ve flipped four times in the last 24. At what time today did you look at this and feel confident? Do you feel confident right now?"

You keep coming back to this in this manner. I'm having trouble understanding why you're so troubled by it.


So they’ve flipped four times in the last 24. At what time today did you look at this and feel confident? Do you feel confident right now?"

Odds change as the game unfolds. At each point along the way, I'm semi-confident that the bettors are the ones who, on average, do the best job of analyzing in real time what the best odds are at any particular instance.

Look at the Super Bowl. At the very beginning of the game, the odds were that it was very close. Kansas had a slight edge.

At what time today did you look at this and feel confident?

I know next to nothing about football, but before the game I certainly couldn't argue with those pre-game odds.

Do you feel confident right now?"

As the game progressed, those odds certainly changed. I lost "confidence" in the beginning odds a slight bit as soon as a couple of minutes into the game.

By the last minute of the game with the score 20-31, I would love to find someone who would be willing to give me the pre-game odds. I would have bet the ranch.

That's all I'm saying with my continual posting of the changing odds.

I'm pretty confident that, at every single moment along the way, that the bettors, on average will do better than you or me or anyone else on this forum at the Best, what you call, Guess.

It's the best we're going to see.

And fun to watch unfold.

Hay

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haydayhayday

Wouldn't you love to be able to bet the Super Bowl game in the last one minute with a score of 20-31 at the pre-game odds of basically 50/50?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/inside-the-shadowy-world-of-high-speed-tennis-betting/

It was done, presumably quite profitably, for at least a while, in tennis.

"Both sides in the cat-and-mouse game owe their jobs to the nature of tennis scoring data. After each point ends, chair umpires enter the outcome into computers, which transmit the scores to fans and bettors around the world.

The snag for bettors is that chair umpires aren’t primarily concerned with entering data instantaneously. They follow the ball along with line judges and watch the players to make sure neither one challenges a call, and on clay courts they often spring out of their chairs to check ball marks and ensure calls are correct. There can also be an electronic delay in the data they transmit.

The potential for delays means someone who can get score data faster has an advantage. That’s why courtsiders are courtside. The second the ball lands out, or bounces twice, they can click a button on their phones and transmit the score directly into the servers their employers use to place bets. The servers, in turn, contain software that models the outcome of the match. The model incorporates the latest point outcome, spits out a probability of each player winning, and then places any bets it can find that it considers favorable based on its calculated probability.

That’s basic courtsiding."

Hay

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foodonastump

You keep coming back to this in this manner. I'm having trouble understanding why you're so troubled by it.


I’m not troubled by it at all. I’m just trying to understand why you continually present betting odds as “all you need to know” when people start talking about polls.

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haydayhayday

“all you need to know”

Just a silly expression of mine at the moment. Just shorthand.

Another way of saying, "The Best Guess at the Moment".

I am saying that, at any given moment, I will always trust the bettors and the betting market over any thing else.

That includes the polls, That includes the pundits on the news. That includes anyone on this forum. Me, you and everybody.

If I had to pick ONE item, one number, to guide me on what to expect at any particular moment, the betting odds are, indeed,

“all you need to know”.

And, if anyone disagrees with that, I'd have to ask.

"Why aren't you rich?"

Hay


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haydayhayday

"Why aren't you rich?"

Having said that, I know plenty of stories about people who have figured out how to beat the game and are very rich.

Not me.

Not you.

Very rare individuals. If you think about it, it makes sense that it's rare.

Hay

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althea_gw

These bettors seem awfully fickle. Apart from a losing lottery ticket now & then, I'm not the betting type. If I was, I'd bet on the Democratic Party appointing Bloomberg as the nominee.

Is this a two part bet, first for Dem candidate then the presidential election? If so, in an election between Trump & Bloomberg, I'd bet on Trump.

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haydayhayday

The bettors aren't any more fickle than what they're betting on.

Or, in the words of that wise man, Yogi Berra,

"It ain't over till it's over'"

It's part, a big part, of what makes a ball game fun.

Hay

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