Election predictions

Ann

We're just one week out from the first Dem caucus of 2020 and about 9 months from the general election. The Dem primary is getting especially competitive and exciting. I like to make guesses/predictions. Anyone else? We all might have interesting predictions on Senate/House races we are the most familiar with based on where we live. Those of us who like to predict can review and see where we got it and where we blew it as the primary, runoff, or general election (we each choose to predict) concludes. I'll start.

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Ann

I'll guess/predict Trump will win the presidency, the Senate will stay Republican, and the House will stay Dem. I think the Senate will remain within two seats of where it is now overall, but with shifting within. I think the House will remain Dem controlled, but I think the GOP will end up with more House seats after the election than they currently hold.

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Ann

I think Gardner is the most likely GOP senator to lose his seat and I think Jones is the most likely Dem senator to lose his seat. I think there is a better chance than not that both of those seats will flip. I think they are the two most likely to flip Senate seats.

I think Susan Collins will keep her seat.

I think Peters in Michigan and McSally in AZ need to worry. I'd give a slightly better than 50% chance those two senate seats will flip.

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elvis

That sounds reasonable to me, Ann. I'm not big on predictions, though, especially since the most recent in the string of Clinton blunders.

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Ann

I don't have an guess about the Dem nominee right now but, my goodness, that has become a competitive race, Bernie's recent surge has been impressive and it's going to be fascinating to watch it play out! It's most certainly not a boring start to the Dem primaries!

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Zalco/bring back Sophie!

Elvis, it's almost as though Clinton was a Trump operative (again,) if you ask me.

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Ann

I do think Clinton likely helped Bernie.

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palisades_

I think a lot of that will depend on the independent voters. The President base voters remain constant, but the undecided voters and the Democrats who voted for him in 2016 will be a [small] variable, while the independents will be a large variable that can tilt the outcome.

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foodonastump

Well yeah.

I fear Dems who will hold their nose because of the economy. I fear Dems who won’t bother because they’re not excited about their choice.

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Ann

Definitely palisades! But honestly, I find it hard to believe there are too many Independents in terms of viewpoints. This society has increasingly become so politically polarized, that it's almost hard for me to imagine.

I'm registered as an Independent (so I can always vote in the primary of my choice), but my views are definitely conservative. I had planned to vote in the Dem primary this year, but I'm more stumped than I thought I would be, so I might skip that vote after all. I had always planned to vote for the most moderate of the highest polling Dems (which would be Biden between the only two polling very high), but I have so much respect for the authenticity of Bernie, the enthusiasm of his supporters, and negative feelings about the DNC's thumb on the scale approach; that I don't know if I can place that Biden vote. And, placing a Bernie vote goes entirely against my political and policy wishes, so I might have to sit it out. But, it looks like Bernie will easily take my state in the primary.

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queenmargo

I of course hope and pray Trump wins re-election. I have heard said at almost every election that this is the most important election. This is the first time that I really really believe that this is THEE most important election of our lives. This election will truly tell in which direction our country is really headed. I believe there are many many silent Trump supporters. I do not know how many millennial's will come out and vote. I think Independents are a mixed bag depending on their personal issues, and how the economy is doing at the time of the election. Libertarians like their guns and less government.

With all that said, and this thread is asking for a prediction...... without further adieu.....

I predict

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Ann

Woohoo Margo! Another prediction besides just mine (and I happen to like yours a lot)!

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Zalco/bring back Sophie!

Ann, I am a Dem and you described my dilemma perfectly.

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queenmargo

Zalco- when in doubt "Vote Trump" ;))

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Zalco/bring back Sophie!

I predict a Trump victory as well, landslide in electoral college. This Dem primary is going to harm voter turnout bigly. The impeachment situation will be read as total vindication of Trump for a wide swath of the electorate. I think the Senate will stay in R hands, and the House in D. I too know many silent Trump supporters.

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Ann

Zalco, I could never, ever vote for Bernie - but I kind of love the guy. He's the real deal - not my deal - but the real deal:) I so clearly understand his dedicated supporters, because he's the perfect candidate for those who hold those political views. Seriously, I kind of love the guy in the same way I kind of love Trump and for the same reasons.

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Ann

Thanks for the predictions Zalco!

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queenmargo

I do not love Bernie, lol.

He is a capitalist while being a socialist supporter. HYOCRITE.

I know you love his passion Ann, but he is a tool!

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catkinZ8a


January 27, 2020

SOCIALIST INVASION: BERNIE SANDERS AND AOC BARNSTORM IOWA


Why is radical socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez spending so much time campaigning for Bernie? Because he’s the godfather of her extreme agenda and socialist vision for America:

Just like the rest of America, Iowa can't afford the radical agenda of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez:

  • Bernie Sanders and AOC's pledge to end fossil fuels would kill more than 83,000 jobs in Iowa.

  • Bernie Sanders and AOC's Medicare-For-All scheme would wipe out 1,829,200 Iowans’ private health insurance plans.

Meanwhile, President Trump's policies have created a booming economy for Iowa that is benefiting all people:

  • The unemployment rate in Iowa is just 2.6%, and the state has created 26,300 new jobs since President Trump took office.

  • Median household income in Iowa grew $1,098 from 2016 to 2018.

The average Iowa worker received a tax cut of $1,423 thanks to President Trump's tax cut law.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/socialist-invasion-bernie-sanders-and-aoc-barnstorm-iowa/

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Ziemia(6a)

Bernie is not a socialist. Words matter.

Of course, when the source is the Trump campaign - it's no surprise.

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paprikash

I am admittedly a bad predictor and got it wrong, thank goodness, in 2016.

DH and DD are perfect predictors and predict a Trump victory. I certainly hope so.

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queenmargo

Bernie is not a socialist. Words matter.

Communist?

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Iris GW

I think it best if people think Trump will win.

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lurker111

After seeing the size of Biden's crowd, I can't believe that he's really in the race. The crats are toast.

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foodonastump

I'm registered as an Independent (so I can always vote in the primary of my choice), but my views are definitely conservative.


Yep. Which is why “independent” is a misnomer. So many people make a big deal about being Independent, but they’re really not. It just makes predictions harder. Unaffiliated at best.


You want prediction, I predict Trump. I’m surprised betting odds linger so close to 50/50.

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Ann

I heard a funny/entertaining/sincere Glenn Beck segment on my car radio over the weekend. He was kind of comparing the Dem field to the 2016 GOP field and doing the best he could to equate a current Dem candidate to the same type of opposite dynamic in the 2016 GOP primary. Here are some I can remember:

Bernie = Trump

Biden = an 80 year old version of Jeb

Buttigieg = Rubio

Yang = Fiorina

Warren = Cruz

Klobuchar = Kasich

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queenmargo

Do you have a prediction Ziemia?

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queenmargo

Do you have a prediction esh?

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queenmargo

LOL- why yes, this is TRUMP winning!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Ann

Don't forget Senate races and such too. I know it's a little early and there is next to no polling on Senate races so far, but as we move closer to November, these should get very interesting.

I personally find it hard to follow more than a very few House races since there are so many!

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foodonastump

Someone must have not liked my distraction. Undoubtedly someone who defends others’ distractions. “Funny.”

Here’s another prediction I heard recently. Not mine: Trump will be the first president to be impeached twice by the House.

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lurker111

Just twice?

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lurker111

I have some predictions...Trump will be the last president to be impeached on conspiracy theories. He will be the only president to be unconstitutionally impeached by an abuse of power. His impeachment will be ruled invalid.

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chipotle

Zalco, I would never have pegged you as a Democrat.




Who is esh?

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numbersjunkie

Yang 2020! Two newspapers in Warrens own state just endorsed him as the candidate who can bring our country back together again. https://www.lowellsun.com/2020/01/27/editorial-endorsement-andrew-yang-the-best-choice-for-democrats/

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woodnymph2_gw

Maybe. But Yang is still just not that well known yet.

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haydayhayday

FOAS:

I predict that we're on our way down the road to Socialism and beyond.

It's the nature of mankind. The dumb ones anyhow. And the dumb ones vote. And the dumb ones are the majority.

Remember that Chavez was elected twice and Maduro once.

Remember that FDR was elected three times. And if he hadn't died, who knows how much longer he would rule.

Free this, free that, free everything appeals to the masses.

FOAS;

"You want prediction, I predict Trump. I’m surprised betting odds linger so close to 50/50."

I think the bettors at Predicit.org are saying that, IF Bernie faces Trump- one on one- Bernie will win.

I can't dispute that.

I think you and I have a nice wager whenever you're ready. Sounds like you'd give me some nice odds.

How much money have you got in the bank?

Hay



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haydayhayday

Ziemia:

"Bernie is not a socialist. Words matter."

Only to people like you.

A rose by any other name... is still a Commie.

Margo got that right.

Bernie spent his honeymoon in the USSR.

And came back with glowing reports.

What more do you need to know?

Changing your name doesn't fool most people.

Hay

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Ann

"Here’s another prediction I heard recently. Not mine: Trump will be the first president to be impeached twice by the House."

My husband agrees with this prediction. I'm kind of with Lurker on this point - only twice?

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vgkg (Va Z-7)

Just twice?

Probably not enough time left for 3 trump impeachments before he loses the upcoming election.

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numbersjunkie

Trump supporters should be hedging their bets. If Trump is not going to a viable candidate in 2020, who would you want to be running this country? Figure that out and vote in the Democratic primary. Who do you think can keep America as the economic leader in a world where technology is going to be key to wealth and power?

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Zalco/bring back Sophie!

Sorta OT numbersjunkie, but NPR had a piece about our losing tech talent, and lots of it, to Canada due to Trump's immigration policies. Not only have the number of H1-Bs been reduced, but the process for getting applications approved has become less predictable. Canada has streamlined their process. Workers can get a visa in two weeks, without a lawyer.


https://www.npr.org/2020/01/27/799402801/canada-wins-u-s-loses-in-global-fight-for-high-tech-workers


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numbersjunkie

Thank you Zalco - I will read that.

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HU-885118952

I'm still sticking with Biden getting the Dem. nomination. Trump to win in 2020 with more electoral college numbers.

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HU-885118952

Yang isn't getting the nomination. Neither is Pete. Warren is also not going to get it and Klobuchar never stood a chance.

It's either Biden or Bernie.

We know who the DNC has chosen.

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Ann

HU, I agree it's down to those two with the exception of my thinking there could be an extremely low percentage chance for Bloomberg. I also strongly agree we know which of those two the DNC has chosen. If there is a contested convention, I think the DNC will have an enormous situation on their hands - based on the passion and potential anger of the Bernie supporters.

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foodonastump

I think you and I have a nice wager whenever you're ready.


I’m ready.


Sounds like you'd give me some nice odds.


I’ll go with 52/48, which is essentially what predictit is saying. Sorry but I’m not going to be more generous than the “experts.”


How much money have you got in the bank?


Not much. And I’d bet even less. But enough to make it more than symbolic if you want. Enough to buy your dancing ladies drinks for a while.

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haydayhayday

FOAS:

"I’m ready."

You and Margo are basically offering me the same non-bet.

That's good enough for me. With Margo, I think I suggested something like, "just remember this moment if and when".

A gentleman's bet? Just for fun?

Sound good?

Here's my bet:

If Bernie and Trump are the two Nominees on Election Day, 2020, I'm betting Bernie will be the winner.

I hope I can remember it.

Anyone else want the gentleman's bet?

Hay



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Ann

I'll take that gentleman's bet. If Bernie and Trump are the two nominees, I bet Trump will win.

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foodonastump

If Bernie and Trump are the two Nominees on Election Day, 2020, I'm betting Bernie will be the winner.


Gentleman’s bet works for me in that case. If Bernie wins I’ll be hanging onto my wallet anyway.

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haydayhayday

Somebody help me keep tabs on the bet.

Ann

Margo

FOAS

Anyone else?


Hay


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queenmargo

Why do I have a *feeling* there is some catch Hay? LOL

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haydayhayday

Margo:

"Why do I have a *feeling* there is some catch Hay? LOL"

I'm a bettor, not a psychologist.

No catches. It's just as I say:

If Bernie and Trump are the two Nominees on Election Day, 2020, I'm betting Bernie will be the winner.

Hay


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tryingtounderstand

For better for worse, like it or not, sadly or happily, fortunately or unfortunately...as long as the economy prevails...Trump will win.

I am fiscally conservative and socially liberal! Help lol...For me, the individual’s character plays a big, huge factor in my vote..So for me, time will tell

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haydayhayday

tryingtounderstand, you want in on the bet?

Hay

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queenmargo

Hay- are you saying that you think Bernie will win the election if it is between Trump and him? That Bernie will be the President?



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Ann

TTU, the economy is often what determines an election. Some have said things have changed and it won't be about the economy this time, but I certainly question that logic.

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queenmargo

If Bernie and Trump are the two Nominees on Election Day, 2020, I'm betting Bernie will be the winner.

Again, Bernie will be the winner for the bettors or Bernie will be the winner as being elected?

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Ann

Margo, that's certainly my understanding of Hayday's bet. He thinks Bernie would win the election if a Bernie/Trump general election matchup.

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haydayhayday

"If Bernie and Trump are the two Nominees on Election Day, 2020, I'm betting Bernie will be the winner."

Is that really so difficult for a speaker of the English language to understand?

My goodness.

Do I need a meme to communicate with you?

I really can't imagine how I could make my statement any more clear.

Hay




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foodonastump

You might be into something, Hay.


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lurker111

lol

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Iris GW

If Bernie inspires the youth to turn out and vote, he can win.

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queenmargo

LOL - I was just covering things as we all know Hay is not that simple.

However- that meme did help ;)

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queenmargo

If Bernie inspires the youth to turn out and vote, he can win.

How many times do you think it will take Bernie saying the word "free" to get the youth inspired to vote Iris?

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paprikash

Think about it. Bernie names AOC as his VP. He somehow wins. He unfortunately passes away. AOC becomes our first woman president. LOL (think I’ll move to Canada)

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queenmargo

LOL paprikash, not Canada for me, maybe I will buy a 52 week timeshare on a Disney cruise and set sail ;))

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paprikash

I like your idea better, Margo. Cruising it will be

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Iris GW

I don't think the youth turn out because Sanders says 'free'; it's because they feel he's listening to them. But continue to insult the youth who support Sanders by saying that and see how that works out for you, eh?

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Nana H

Paprikash, if I think I know anything about you are all , while it may be a cruise, it won't be a Disney cruise !!!

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queenmargo

Not much youth on this forum Iris, but if any are reading, WAKE UP, socialism is not being sold the way you are "listening" to Bernie.

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knicetime

Paprikash, Bernie could not name AOC as VP. She is not old enough.

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Ann

"If Bernie inspires the youth to turn out and vote, he can win."

No doubt, this does worry me a little.

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numbersjunkie

If you don't want Bernie in office, you need to pick the Democrat you find least offensive and vote in the primary. Switch your registration if you need to.

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Ann

Numbers, I did switch my registration from Republican to Unaffiliated (I think that's what my state calls it). I had every intention of waiting until about now to see who had a good chance and then voting for the most moderate Dem, definitely followed by a Trump general election vote.

But, that's Biden, because I think there are only two who have a good chance (for example, if Klobuchar had a chance, she'd be an easy vote for me). But, I think I'm going to have to sit out the primary. I just don't feel good about a vote for either Bernie or Biden, for two completely different reasons.

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Ann

Well, I suppose there would be nothing stopping me from a Klobuchar vote if she hasn't dropped out by Super Tuesday. Maybe I just talked myself into that option, which wasn't my initial plan (only leaders), but it's an option for me.

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Kathy

Capitalism in US is actually Socialism for the rich.

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patriceny

Fabulous thread Ann! Wish I had more time to read and participate. Maybe later.


Quick answer- I’m one of the true independents. Lean libertarian so both blue and red have some things I like and some things I think are nuts.


All I know for sure is if Bernie wins I will cry. I don’t know how to reach his mostly young supporters that free does not mean what you think it does.


I’m picking Biden as the Dem nominee. Tough race to call right now though.


I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I agree with Hay. Bern wins a showdown with Trump. Narrowly. Then I cry. LOL. But not really.

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queenmargo

Can I ask then, if so many think Bernie will win Trump if he is the nominee, why is everyone on the left not rallying behind Bernie?

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pb32

Because Bernie is nucking futz? :)

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Ann

Margo, I don't think too many feel that way. Obviously a couple on this thread do, but I think most are very worried Bernie would lose to Trump.

I think Trump will beat all of the Dem candidates, but Bernie is a bit more of a question mark for me than the others, because voter enthusiasm is a powerful thing - precisely as we've witnessed with Trump (who most everyone but you was certain would lose). That level of enthusiasm can really produce unexpected surprises.

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woodnymph2_gw

I think Bloomburg may well be the Wild Card, if he can catch on and be heard by more.

Increasingly, I really like Klobuchar a lot. While I can't see her as Pres. she would make a stunning Vice Pres.

As for the Biden vs.. Bernie vote: don't forget about Black voters. Can you really see them turning away from Biden who they have known, and voting for a New Englander White male such as Bernie? just sayin.'

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queenmargo

Can you really see them turning away from Biden who they have known

Not sure they or any of us know who the real Biden is.

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Chi

I'm one of the younger participants here and I have seen enthusiasm for Bernie at levels that I haven't seen since Obama, and certainly not for any of the other Dem candidates.

Older people dismissing young people for being too stupid to understand that everything is not "free" is exactly why they are supporting him. The concerns of a 20-something are very different than someone heading into retirement. And they aren't falling for the GOP fear-mongering intentional misuse of the term "socialism." The "free" things they want are things that most other developed countries have had for their citizens for many years.

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queenmargo

Chi- then why aren't more illegals fleeing to those other developed countries?

Do you think when they hear "Land of the Free and Home of the Brave, they are thinking "free" stuff and brave for getting it?

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queenmargo

Chi does your support go to Commie Bernie?

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Kathy

There’s always Fascist Trump.

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woodnymph2_gw

Chi, I think you make some valid points. I've been to a Bernie rally and all ages were enthusiastic and energized. Both the young and the Senior citizens. Many of the young have European friends who talk to them about health card, educational opportunities, and other benefits our friends enjoy in France, Scandinavia, Germany, etc.

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woodnymph2_gw

If Bernie is a "communist" in your mind, then someone needs to go back to their history books and read a little more about Stalin, Lenin, Trotsky, et al.

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Chi

It's like most other countries believe it benefits them to have their citizens healthy and well-educated! Unlike the US with our alarming amount of people believing college is only for liberal brainwashing. And in healthcare where it's acceptable for someone to lose their home because they didn't have insurance when they got sick.

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Kathy

In US socialism is only for the top percenters.

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numbersjunkie

Kathy, I agree with what Robert Reich likes to say:

In America we have Socialism for the corporations and rich, and harsh capitalism for everyone else!

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tryingtounderstand

There are way way more similarities between the ‘Home of the Free’ and the ‘True North Strong and Free’. Please do not confuse social programs, including healthcare and parental leave with socialism. In fact, until Kiefer Sutherland’s grandfather, Tommy Douglas, brought it forth late 50’s, Canada’s health system was not a social program.

I also believe that many of HT forumites, who have crossed the great white Snowbanks, do not really feel they are in a different land. Of course, the same probably holds true heading south. It is doubtful that you would say you are in a communist or socialist country! If you haven’t been across the 49th, welcome. Do not let the snowbanks stop you!



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foodonastump

I think Bloomburg may well be the Wild Card, if he can catch on and be heard by more.

Increasingly, I really like Klobuchar a lot. While I can't see her as Pres. she would make a stunning Vice Pres.

Bloomberg/Klobuchar - Now there’s a ticket I could get behind. Covers a few firsts, too, for those who get excited about that sort of thing.

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Ann

I think Bloomberg/Klobuchar would make for an interesting ticket. I can see many Dems supporting that combo.

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woodnymph2_gw

Gee, foas, Ann agrees with you, evidently. She "thanked" you for your post. So do I.

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foodonastump

Ann won’t vote for them of course but I think they could draw some Republican votes. Of course as Nana and perhaps others have noted, Mike does have that gun control “problem”. Nonetheless, his are the numbers I first look at when I check. I didn’t realize Klobuchar took over 3rd yesterday, Emerson’s Iowa polling. An outlier but noteworthy.

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Nana H

I've really warmed to Bloomberg. Have always liked Amy. Still prefer Biden but I am worried Trump has accomplished what he set it to do .......and that isn't cleanse the Ukraine of corruption.

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Ann

"Gee, foas, Ann agrees with you, evidently. She "thanked" you for your post."

No point whatsoever for this type of comment in a thread like this. Without any "Gee", FOAS clearly understood both my agreement and my sincere thank you.


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foodonastump

Biden’s lost me. Too old. And I don’t mean 77.

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numbersjunkie

Yang/Klobuchar. Would bury DJT.

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Ann

"Biden’s lost me. Too old. And I don’t mean 77."

I think a lot of voters agree - thus the complete lack of Biden enthusiasm. As I've said often in the past, a McCain type candidate (but worse) IMO. Biden is good at losing elections, not at winning them.

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numbersjunkie

NEWS: Andrew Yang and Dave Chappelle will be knocking on doors together in Iowa today!

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HU-885118952

Ann, it's remarkable that the Dem race is pretty much going to be which old, white guy gets the nomination.

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Stan Areted

Not only remarkable, but hypocritically predictable!

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Nana H

Why not, a white old man is the Relublican choice.

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numbersjunkie

Don't count Yang out. Final youth Straw poll results


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patriceny

I have 2 issues with The Bern.

One, I am philosophically opposed to a lot of what he believes in. I hold no malice toward people who believe differently than me, so I am not interested in fighting or arguing about those differences. I'm just stating from a political or ideological standpoint, he and I are almost polar opposites.

Two, most/all of what he says he will do once elected will never happen in the way he says it will. Think back to Obama and the ACA. While again I am personally opposed to the ACA, the plan Obama wanted to put forward may have actually/technically worked. So what happened? Washington happened. Politics happened. And the ACA that ended up being passed was a "compromise" - a watered down version that I said was a disaster and unsustainable from the moment it was passed.

So you take the Berns "great ideas", and start subjecting them to American politics. What happens? I can tell you what happens....

I live in New York. We are deep blue. And my taxes frigging show that. Democrats have never met a social program they don't like. Government gets fatter, more bloated, more expensive, more bureaucratic, more intrusive into people's personal lives, harder for small (and large!) businesses to understand and keep up.

Who pays? Well, I'm here to tell you that the uber rich never pay. For better or worse, in our current state of political affairs in America, the uber rich are not going to fund all of the Bern's brilliant ideas. Who gets hit? The middle class, once again. We always get hit the worst.

If you think that's not all that bad, look at what's happening to states which are currently taxing their residents to death. New York, California - they are losing more people every year. Retirees are fleeing these states. Even young professionals are choosing to work in different states with lower tax burdens.

I salute Bern's enthusiasm. I really do. Maybe in a perfect world he could pull off what he says he will do. But we don't live in a perfect world, and once Washington gets done with it (assuming he wins, kill me now), I can tell you what the outcome will be right now. More taxes for the middle.

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nancy_in_venice_ca Sunset 24 z10

Bloomberg has a lot of baggage from his time as NYC's mayor to find much favor with black voters. His stop-and-frisk program was a disaster.


Not until November 2019, shortly before his presidential campaign begins, does Bloomberg change his mind regarding racial profiling and stop-and-frisk.

.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/11/michael-bloomberg-apologizes-for-stop-and-frisk.html

Michael Bloomberg Apologizes for Stop and Frisk: ‘I Was Wrong’

In an appearance at the Christian Cultural Center in Brooklyn, former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg apologized for the NYPD policy of stop and frisk, which resulted in the disproportionate and unconstitutional detaining and searching of young African-American and Hispanic New Yorkers. “I can’t change history, but today, I want you to know I realize I was wrong, and I am sorry,” Bloomberg told the congregation at the black megachurch in the neighborhood of East New York. “Over time, I’ve come to understand something that I’ve long struggled to admit to myself: I got something important wrong. I didn’t understand the full impact that stops were having on the black and Latino communities.”

The apology came in Bloomberg’s first speech since putting in his paperwork to run for the Democratic primary in Alabama, the state with the first filing deadline. Even after a federal judge ruled in 2013 that the “policy of indirect racial profiling” violated the constitutional rights of young men of color, Bloomberg defended the practice, claiming that the judge, Shira A. Scheindlin, did not provide “a fair trial.” [Sounds too much like Trump for my comfort.]

That year, Bloomberg also said that “we disproportionately stop whites too much and minorities too little,” claiming that the racial disparities in stop and frisk were evidence of criminality, not the result of bias. He has defended the program for years, including in a 2018 interview with the New York Times. “I now see that we should have acted sooner, and acted faster,” he said on Sunday.

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queenmargo

OH gee, I just heard old creepy joe say he wished Michelle Obama would be his VP running mate. It didn't seem like it drew much enthusiasm.

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Ann

Margo, I also heard that on the radio today:)

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Stan Areted

Wonder if he can reach her neck to nuzzle?

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haydayhayday


Woodnymph:

"If Bernie is a "communist" in your mind, then someone needs to go back to their history books and read a little more about Stalin, Lenin, Trotsky, et al."

Reading and rereading the history books is exactly how I know about the horrors of Socialism. I used to get an "ancient history" around here whenever I'd want to discuss the history of those times.

Bernie is a "communist" ?

You mean the guy who spent his honeymoon in the USSR and came back with glowing reports of the system. That Bernie.?

Call it what you want. You play semantics games.

Changing your name doesn't change what you are.

Hay

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haydayhayday

Kathy:

"There’s always Fascist Trump."

The Road to Hell is Paved With Good Intentions.

Trump didn't pop up in a vacuum.

This is all just a repeat of history.

From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.

Starts out great. Ends up with totalitarianism.

Actually, if you're smart, you wouldn't need a history book to understand where it's going to end.


Hay

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haydayhayday

Tomorrow, just for fun, I'm going to make a little trip to the place where Trotsky met his fate.

https://www.tripadvisor.com/Attraction_Review-g150800-d152901-Reviews-Museo_Casa_De_Leon_Trotsky-Mexico_City_Central_Mexico_and_Gulf_Coast.html



But, right now, I've got to get ready to go see a pyramid.

Hasta La Vista!

Hay

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lurker111

The crats are stuck with biden. He's their guy, no matter how
unpopular he is. They need biden to be able to claim that Trump
interfered with the 2020 election. Biden isn't part of the 2020
election. Biden isn't Trump's opponent in the election. He hasn't
earned that spot and never could. When biden is out, so is there little
scam, and they know it.

Biden isn't worth it.

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llucy

Bloomberg is advertising heavily on the streaming channels I watch.

Given a choice between septuagenarian white men...he might be mine.

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Ann

Yup, Bloomberg is advertising heavily! I'm seeing that same thing.

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catkinZ8a

Continue to vote Democrat and your guns will be taken away.
Continue to vote Democrat and your child could be aborted in the birth canal.
Continue to vote Democrat and your taxes will be higher.
Continue to vote Democrat and your jobs will go to illegal immigrants.
Continue to vote Democrat and the homeless population will increase.
Continue to vote Democrat and your cities will become slums.
Continue to vote Democrat and watch unemployment skyrocket
Continue to vote Democrat and the US population will increase by 2 million per yr, per illegal immigrants


Continue to vote Democrat and have Gov't control your healthcare.

Continue to vote Democrat and you'll continue to elect corrupt self-important politicians like Biden.
Continue to vote Democrat and watch our military be depleted.
Continue to vote Democrat and watch your POTUS give away money to foreign terrorist countries like Iran
Continue to vote Democrat and you end up on Welfare

From somewhere on the net.

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foodonastump

Good ads? I’ve not seen anything online but what’s on TV is effective. Whoever may end up to be the recipient of his help will be lucky.


Patriceny - Good post. I missed it the first time. I’ve been thinking “hang onto your wallet if Bernie wins” but more likely you’re right, nothing will pass anyway.

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Ann

I think we have a couple more days of impeachment news and then the Iowa caucus will take an important news role. I'm really looking forward to seeing how Iowa goes on Monday. What a very interesting race this Dem primary has become.

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Nana H

I think that is an important point and one I have mentioned before. Bernie's agenda , as put forth, will never pass even if the Dems win the Houae, Senate and WH.

However, should he be the nominee and his agenda gets out the vote ......go for it Bernie.

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Ann

I was just laughing about this part of the conversation, with this thought. Bernie could campaign by saying, if you like my agenda, vote for me. If you don't like my agenda, vote for me anyway, because my agenda is too weird to pass:)

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tryingtounderstand

With regard to Catkin’s onerous prediction post re vote democrat Those things did not come to pass during Obama years The great big housing catastrophe occurred during republican era

Moral of the story Politics should not be a fear monger it tool!

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catkinZ8a

woodnymph2_gw

I think Bloomburg may well be the Wild Card, if he can catch on and be heard by more.

_____________________

Yeah, all those Bernie loving, millionaire and billionaire haters are going to vote for billioniare "Bloomburg".


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patriceny

Thanks FOAS. :) I try to call it as I see it, with a clear mind and no malice toward anyone who has a different political persuasion than I do.

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Kathy

Hay, FYI, where was Trump heading for decades? The KGB plays a long game.



New archive records obtained by the Guardian and the Czech magazine Respekt show the StB’s growing interest in Trump after the 1988 US presidential election, won by George HW Bush. The StB’s first directorate responsible for foreign espionage sought to “deepen” its Trump-related activity.

A former StB official, Vlastimil Daněk – tracked down to the village of Zadní Arnoštov, where he lives in retirement – confirmed the Trump operation. Addressing the matter publicly for the first time, he said: “Trump was of course a very interesting person for us. He was a businessman, he had a lot of contacts, even in US politics.

“We were focusing on him, we knew he was influential. We had information that he wanted to be president in future.”


More info,

https://medium.com/@ZarinaZabrisky/trumps-early-contacts-with-russia-d92eea2f5c3c

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foodonastump

Yeah, all those Bernie loving, millionaire and billionaire haters are going to vote for billioniare "Bloomburg".


Who cares. Anyone who’s “Bernie or Bust” is useless to the Dems unless Bernie is chosen. And that’s no reason to be strong-armed into nominating him.


A more reasonable Bernie “supporter” might look at Bloomberg’s philanthropy and not hate his money quite so much.

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Kathy

I don’t think Bernie will be nominated, no matter how much Trump wants him. That is unless Trump rigs the primaries too. Imho, it’s not impossible they could be manipulated.

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Ann

"And that’s no reason to be strong-armed into nominating him."

I know you didn't say or imply anyone has tried, but I don't think any Bernie supporters are trying to strong-arm anyone else. They just passionately support their guy, don't you think?

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Ann

Kathy, do you think Trump is rigging the Dem primaries? If yes, how so?

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nancy_in_venice_ca Sunset 24 z10

A more reasonable Bernie “supporter” might look at Bloomberg’s philanthropy and not hate his money quite so much.

Or maybe they have looked at Bloomberg's history of support for racial profiling -- and his very recent apology for same made a few days before filing his papers for the presidential campaign.


Or maybe they had an unpleasant experience with Bloomberg's Trumpian criticism of the judge who ruled his stop-and-frisk police was unconstitutional.

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Kathy

Ann, Trump is always one off. That’s how he operates. He did however ask China to interfere standing on the WH lawn. We know also Russia will continue their interference, in fact calling Trump their Russian Asset.

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Wants to Grow

Bloomberg's challenge will be overcoming his China connections.

Bloomberg’s wealth is partly derived from his company’s expansion far
beyond its New York City roots. Bloomberg’s company opened offices in Beijing
25 years ago, selling its computer terminal and financial information
subscriptions. Bloomberg has long held the view that a “growing Chinese economy
is good for America,” as he wrote in a 2008 article in Newsweek. Bloomberg said
that “we have a stake in working together to solve common problems, rather than
trying to browbeat or intimidate the other into action.”

As Bloomberg has urged cooperation with China, questions have been raised
about whether his news service has held back from publishing information that
would offend the Chinese leadership, because of concern that the government
would expel his employees.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bloombergs-business-in-china-has-grown-that-could-create-unprecedented-entanglements-if-he-is-elected-president/2020/01/01/71536318-1cfd-11ea-9ddd-3e0321c180e7_story.html

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Nana H

Rigging of the Democratic primaries started with the deliberate attempt to use a vulnerable foreign government to destroy Biden's character. Trump worried he could never beat him at the polls so he decided to try to defeat him in the primaries in the hope he would face someone like Sanders.

He may be sorry he decided on that path.

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Kathy

Bloomberg couldn't possibly have more connections with China than Trump’s family. In fact, China might prefer Bloomberg therefore thwarting Trump re-election. Interesting.

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lurker111

Rigging of the Democratic primaries started with the deliberate attempt
to use a vulnerable foreign government to destroy Biden's character.

No one else in the world is making that claim.

Biden confessed. He did it to himself.

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queenmargo

Biden confessed. He did it to himself.

Biden could lock himself up and they would not believe it.

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Ann

"No one else in the world is making that claim."

Lol, that's often the case:)

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Nana H

Lets see if I have this right.

Biden is guilty of illegally witholding aid as part of official national and international foreign policy but Trump had every right to do the same for his own political interests.

Trump supporters would have a much more cogent argument if they said Biden did nothing illegal and neither did Trump. Too bad they don't seem to think things through.

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Ann

"Biden could lock himself up and they would not believe it."

Of course not - it would be TRUMP. Dang that Trump is capable of anything! Victimhood on Biden's behalf and in advance of even knowing if he will or won't be the nominee. I love it!!!

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lurker111

Lets see if I have this right.
Biden is guilty of illegally witholding aid

Correct. There is no foreign policy that allows the VP to withhold aid until the person investigating his son is fired.

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foodonastump

Nancy - They could have any number of reservations about Bloomberg, as we’re seeing you have, but I was responding specifically to his wealth.


Ann -

I know you didn't say or imply anyone has tried...

Right, I didn’t. I meant figuratively.

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Nana H

"There is no foreign policy that allows the VP to withhold aid until the person investigating his son is fired."


.....but there is one that says foreign aid can be withheld until you investigate my potential political opponent.

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lurker111

.....but there is one that says foreign aid can be withheld until you investigate my potential political opponent.

Pure presumed fantasy.

(Biden isn't Trump's opponent and he's not a politician anymore.)

Look at the claim from Fantasy Land...

Trump interfered with the 2020 election by trying to get dirt on his opponent.

Look at reality...The 2020 election hasn't started yet and biden isn't in the election.

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Kathy

Why did Trump have no concerns about corruption until Biden announced he was running?

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haydayhayday

From above, FOAS responding to my bet proposal:

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Quoting Hay:

"I think you and I have a nice wager whenever you're ready."


FOAS:

I’m ready.


Quoting Hay:

"Sounds like you'd give me some nice odds."


FOAS:

I’ll go with 52/48, which is essentially what predictit is saying. Sorry but I’m not going to be more generous than the “experts.”"


//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Back to real life Hay:

Foas;

"I’ll go with 52/48, which is essentially what predictit is saying. Sorry but I’m not going to be more generous than the “experts.”"

I think that you're being very generous and don't realize it. Your "52/48", I suspect, is from this link. (It's changed bit over time, but still rather close to when we made the bet.):

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

IF that's the case, then I think you're not actually looking at the right odds for our little bet.

To get the odds for our little bet,

"If Bernie and Trump are the two Nominees on Election Day, 2020, I'm betting Bernie will be the winner."

I think you need more than that link. With this added link,

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination

and a little mathematical magic, I think the odds for our little bet, currently and at the time of our bet, are not "52/48", but closer to 70/30 in Bernie's favor.


Thanks for your generosity.

Hay

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haydayhayday

Kathy:

"Hay, FYI, where was Trump heading for decades? The KGB plays a long game."

Which is worthless information for my point. If it were not Trump, it would have been someone else.

Go read Animal Farm.

Written in very simple terms for the masses by someone who saw the whole episode of the history of the Russian experiment from the advantage of having lived through the times.

You probably won't read it and will likely continue to believe just what you believe.

Woodnymph was almost right:

"If Bernie is a "communist" in your mind, then someone needs to go back to their history books and read a little more about Stalin, Lenin, Trotsky, et al.

Have you ever read Animal Farm? Either of you?


Hay

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Ann

Lots of interesting days coming up, but Monday and Iowa should be one to really watch. It would be fun to live in the "first" state:)

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queenmargo

Interesting dynamics:

Trump at a huge rally at Drake University

Biden at his rally at Dairy Queen, lol

Sanders stuck in impeachment hearings for the guy with the biggest crowds in Iowa.


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elvis

Kathy

Why did Trump have no concerns about corruption until Biden announced he was running?

That was really and truly debunked. Guiliani turned over the investigation file to the State Department in January 2019, months before Biden formally announced. You don't watch the hearings. You might consider doing that rather than getting your misinformation secondhand.

Just a helpful tip!

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Nana H

Trump chose to inject himself directly once Biden announced. Up until then he was leaving it up to RG to get dirt on Biden and the DNC but it became obvious he was not being successful and we all know Trump to be short on patience when he wants something.

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foodonastump

... and a little mathematical magic, I think the odds for our little bet, currently and at the time of our bet, are not "52/48", but closer to 70/30 in Bernie's favor.


Thanks for your generosity.

Hay - Not sure how you came up with 70/30, but I was aware from the start that the 52/48 was based on apples to oranges odds. Too bad you didn’t accept my offer; I’m almost tempted to offer the same odds again despite your confidence in Bernie.

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Kathy

Elvis, instead of your insults why don’t you supply the proper information. The defense told a slew of lies during the impeachment hearings. Rudy wrote a letter saying he was working for Trump personally, not the SOS. You are saying he was working for SOS.

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Ann

Any guesses on Iowa on Monday? I think Bernie's current momentum might be enough to make for a very good Bernie day in Iowa, but Biden and Bernie remain very close in Iowa and nationally. I have noticed on predictit, Bernie is really getting a recent CA bump up.

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lurker111

There is a lot of confusion and propaganda about RG. We'll see what he was doing there soon enough.

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lurker111

I think Bernie will take Iowa. I don't believe the polls at all.

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queenmargo

I think if Bernie wins Iowa, then Iowa has been duped by the Russians. ')

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lurker111

Biden speaking about Trump...(in a gretta-like tone)

"You know why he's on trial? Because he doesn't want to run against MEEE"

Yes we do.

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Kathy

Trump put a hold on money for a Ukraine in early May. Biden announced he was running April 25, and was number 1 in polls.

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Toby

I call Bernie in Iowa. Biden hasn't focused nearly as many resources there as Bernie has.

I'd like to add that rally size is no indication of how people will vote. I know Trump followers consider it a big factor in predicting his election win. They also think that because they and people they know think Trump is great that most of the voters must feel like they do (and that anyone who doesn't is a socialist). It's a poor prediction tool.

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lurker111

2017-Trump released the aid for Ukraine in September.

2018 -Trump released the aid for Ukraine in September.

2019 -Trump released the aid for Ukraine in September.

What on Earth are the crats talking about?

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Kathy

Why hasn’t Zelensky had his visit to the WH? Why hasn’t Trump shown his support for Zelensky?

Trump was forced to release the aid when the whistleblower outed him. That’s why he is out to get the WB.

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lurker111

lol

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lionheart_gw (USDA Zone 5A, Eastern NY)

It looks like Bernie will take Iowa. I suck at predictions, but he looks hard to beat at this point.

There have been a few occasions where Biden sounds very frail. He's been underwhelming in his presence at the debates, almost as if he can't keep up and everything is whizzing by him too quickly. That's very sad. I hope he improves and this is just a temporary headspace.

The others, outside of Yang, are too busy admiring their reflections in the mirror and pandering gratuitously to special interest groups.

The larger picture is more telling. What does a possible Trump-Sanders matchup tell you? Do you think everyone is tired of the status quo and entrenched bureaucracies?

I have very mixed feelings about Trump, but his election was a sign of trouble by voters who were tired of the status quo and the entitled political elite. Gotta tell ya, I didn't see that coming from the Republican side first. I thought for certain that the Democrats would be the first to go non-traditional. Surprises all the way around.

I don't know if this anti-establishment sentiment is a flash in the pan or a long term thing, but the lesson is to expect the unexpected in politics right now.

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Ziemia(6a)

Biden

January 2017: "I'll run if I can walk."

" He seemingly announced on January 13, 2017, exactly one week prior to the expiration of his vice presidential term, that he would not run. However, four days later, he seemed to backtrack, stating "I'll run if I can walk." In September 2017, Biden's daughter Ashley indicated her belief that he was thinking about running in 2020."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_2020_presidential_campaign?wprov=sfla1


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patriceny

I agree with almost everything you wrote Lionheart. I appreciated reading your perspective, thank you.

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haydayhayday

FOAS:

"Hay - Not sure how you came up with 70/30, but I was aware from the start that the 52/48 was based on apples to oranges odds. Too bad you didn’t accept my offer; I’m almost tempted to offer the same odds again despite your confidence in Bernie."

Understand that this is all just for fun and games. If anyone actually wanted to wager serious money on the bet I've proposed, I'd take it. 50/50.

Mostly I'm just offering information that people might find interesting.

If you want to know the "mathematical magic", go read the very few beginning lines from this link:

http://www.stat.yale.edu/Courses/1997-98/101/condprob.htm

which can be expressed as:

Here's what you've got to work with:

Tnat's (AandB) Bernie wins the Democratic Nomination AND is Elected President.He can't be elected President if he doesn't win the Democratic nomination.



That's A. Bernie wins Democratic nomination.

My bet is essentially probability of (B given A)

If Bernie gets the nomination what is the probability he will then become the President.

30/42=.714

That's my 70/30.

I'm generous and didn't take your money.

This is all rough and tumble and lots of if's and and's. I don't think I have anyone around here to check my work, so there's that, too.

Hay

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haydayhayday

Meanwhile, in Iowa. Place your bets:


The winner walks away with a dollar.



Hay

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llucy

Why is Hillary Clinton in these "bets"?

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haydayhayday

llucy:

"Why is Hillary Clinton in these "bets"?"

Because enough people petitioned the site to create the bet. She was hemming and hawing a while back about running.

If you think it's nonsense at this point, sell the ranch and bet 95 cents to win 5 cents if she doesn't win the nomination.

Easy money.

Hay

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Chi

I think Bernie can take it if the youth show up. His momentum is growing, and I think a lot of people have been looking for that kind of movement to get behind.

Bernie wasn't my favorite but he's definitely growing on me. Still haven't decided who I will be voting for for primaries. I've got about a month to decide.

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haydayhayday

This is all rough and tumble in the betting and the magic, but, Sanders is showing up, at this point, as the best candidate to beat Trump.

Biden by my same route, going head to head with Trump.

14/30=.47

Sad to say we could elect a Socialist/Communist...however you call it....to be our next President.

Is that so hard to believe?

History repeats itself.

People are lured by Free this and Free that.

That's all you need to win over the masses.

Hay



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Chi

Good thing there isn't a Socialist/Communist running for President!

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Ann

"They also think that because they and people they know think Trump is great that most of the voters must feel like they do"

Certainly not me. I completely respect the choice legal voters have to vote for any candidate of their choosing. I well understand that about half the country doesn't agree with me one bit and I don't expect them too.

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Ann

"The larger picture is more telling. What does a possible Trump-Sanders matchup tell you? Do you think everyone is tired of the status quo and entrenched bureaucracies?"

Yes, I do! Great full comment, by the way. Just the kind of comment that could lead to great conversation.

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foodonastump

Thanks Hay - I follow. I still think that’s high though. I’d still do 50/50 but my max is way down. 100 “hay seeds” to the winner? “Given A?”

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haydayhayday

Chi:

"Good thing there isn't a Socialist/Communist running for President!"

Right, if Bernie had lived a hundred and fifty years ago, he would have been a Robber Baron.

Hay

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haydayhayday

FOAS:

"Thanks Hay - I follow. I still think that’s high though. I’d still do 50/50 but my max is way down. 100 “hay seeds” to the winner? “Given A?”"

Biden is not the real threat to Trump. He really is a loser.

Sanders, just like so many other Robber Barons in the past, will appeal to the masses with his constant rants of Free This and Free That.

Hay



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foodonastump

Sanders, just like so many other Robber Barons in the past, will appeal to the masses with his constant rants of Free This and Free That.


Maybe he should have been at Grand Central tonight promising free subways.

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Ann

I simply can't wait to watch Iowa on Monday. I'm very interested to learn if this Bernie polling surge is for real or not.

How do Dems feel about the changes to the debate rules which will allow Bloomberg to participate? I heard Klobuchar say she's good with it. Bernie is not good with it. Some on Fox think the DNC has decided Bloomberg is their new and best hope (definitely worried about Bernie and quickly losing confidence in Biden's ability to beat Trump) - thus this debate rule change. What do the Dems here think about it?

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foodonastump

I’m neither Dem nor impartial, but I find it completely appropriate. I agree with the reasoning for the change.

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Ann

I'm actually interested in hearing him speak in debates. I just don't know enough about Bloomberg yet to have much of an opinion of him.

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catkinZ8a

"Stop and frisk black males". Mini-Mink Bloomberg

Game over.

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queenmargo

But he apologized catkin lol

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woodnymph2_gw

He did indeed apologize, which raises him in my eyes, in terms of humility and decency. I want to hear more from Bloomburg. I don't like Bernie's resentment of him, although I understand it.

I call Bernie in Iowa mainly because Biden is looking more and more tired and lackluster.

Lion made some excellent points in (his/her) post above.

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Ann

Darn. I guess the Des Moines Register poll is supposed to be the Gold Standard in Iowa. This poll is so highly anticipated that they announced the release time and media was anxiously waiting for the final release (last evening) prior to Monday caucuses. But, it seems close to release time, they made a nearly unprecedented decision not to release. Supposedly, Buttigieg's name had been left off of some telephone poll of a potential voter, thus no release at all of this very highly anticipated poll.

I've grown a bit of suspicious of this reasoning. While it's possible it's entirely true, it seems a little odd to me they wouldn't catch this error until right before release time. As this poll and its importance was being discussed by numerous media earlier yesterday, it was discussed how it tends to be a game changing poll so close to the important caucus. The poll is so good and so respected - that it can alter decisions of caucus goers. So, a little bit of me is wondering if the results of the poll weren't favorable to the wishes of even the pollsters and, potentially, a decision was made that it better to find some reason to not release the results. The reasoning given feels slightly fishy to me. It certainly makes me even more curious to watch how tomorrow goes and to see if we're in for a rather big outcome surprise of some sort.

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Ann

Then, I heard an interesting discussion of Iowa on the Journal Editorial Report this weekend. The panel feels tomorrow is a very important day for Biden and Bloomberg. The panel thinks if Biden comes in 3rd or 4th in Iowa, loses NH as expected, and has not as great of an outcome in SC as expected - Biden's support could significantly shift to Bloomberg by super Tuesday - making Bloomberg a very serious contender. Conversely, they think if Biden does really well in Iowa, Bloomberg is likely out before he begins.

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HU-885118952

Ann, I think the DNC will go all in for Bloomberg and do it quickly if Biden doesn't have a strong showing in Iowa. They can't have Bernie winning the primary.

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Ann

HU, I completely agree. If Biden doesn't do well tomorrow (doesn't get 1st or 2nd place), I think the DNC will be 100% Bloomberg and practically overnight.

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Ann

"A highly anticipated poll of Iowa caucus goers slated for release just two days before the caucuses was abruptly pulled at the last minute over complaints Pete Buttigieg was excluded from one of the surveys. The Des Moines Register announced late Saturday that along with CNN and Selzer & Co., it had decided to shelve the final CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll. The Buttigieg campaign said an Iowa supporter had relayed concerns after the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor was not listed among the candidates in a poll phone call from one of the operators behind the Iowa Poll, The New York Times reports. CNN political director David Chalian said the poll was pulled “out of an abundance of caution” after complaints about the interview. “We weren’t able to determine exactly what happened during this person’s interview and we don’t know whether it was an isolated incident,” he said on-air Saturday."

Does this sound a bit fishy to anyone else? This isn't just any old little poll. This was a highly anticipated poll with an announced release time and tons of media awaiting its release.

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Ann

And, this from fivethirtyeight.

"Given the amount of coverage this poll was going to receive — CNN had planned an hourlong program devoted to its results — its cancellation could be a bummer (or a gift) for some of the candidates. An unexpected result for an underdog candidate or a solid lead for either Sen. Bernie Sanders or former Vice President Joe Biden might have dominated the media narrative heading into Monday. And that coverage could have influenced the attitudes of Iowa voters."

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foodonastump

Ann, I think the DNC will go all in for Bloomberg and do it quickly if Biden doesn't have a strong showing in Iowa. They can't have Bernie winning the primary


I’m not going look for the post now, but just yesterday you said you were surprised the DNC didn’t get behind more moderates, the choice being Biden or Biden. I’m guessing you’d agree that Biden isn’t a great candidate for a number of reasons. So wouldn’t it follow that in your opinion getting behind Bloomberg would be smart? And you personally, if you lose Trump would you prefer Bloomberg or Bernie or who? My point being, you’ve been posting a lot of stuff with a negative air about Bloomberg/DNC and I’m wondering what you, as a conservative, would prefer?

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Ann

It wasn't my quote FOAS, so you were probably asking HU, but I'll address your comment.

I think it would be very smart of the DNC to support Bloomberg instead of Biden. I think Biden is a terrible candidate. BUT, I think all of this could infuriate Bernie supporters, and rightfully so. I do think Bernie deserves fair treatment and voters (especially in this emotionally charged current political environment) will be demanding fairness in this primary. No point in me assessing who I would prefer as president from the Dem candidates, because I think 2020 will go to Trump.

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HU-885118952

I'd prefer Biden. He'd be the least odious and frankly, a 4-year place holder.

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Nana H

I find all this blathering about the DNC interesting given the RNC was very clear in staying they woukd not support any primaries against Trump.

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foodonastump

No point in me assessing who I would prefer as president from the Dem candidates, because I think 2020 will go to Trump.


Aren’t you the one who stays unaffiliated so that you can vote in the Dem primaries, just in case? Coulda sworn you’ve told us that many times.

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elvis

In some states, it doesn't matter. Wisconsin does not register voters by party preference or affiliation, nor does it collect information about voters' gender or race.

I think that's best.

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nancy_in_venice_ca Sunset 24 z10

We have open primaries in California, except for the president where voting is by political party.

The CA Democrats allow voters with no party preference to participate in their primary. The Republican presidential primary is limited to registered Republicans only.

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Ann

FOAS, I did register as unaffiliated and used to think I would vote in the Dem primary, but I'm rethinking that. My state is REALLY leaning toward Bernie. As I've mentioned, I kind of love Bernie's authenticity, but his policy is the exact opposite of my policy wishes, so that leaves Joe (unless Bloomberg emerges as a possibility before super Tuesday). Biden is more moderate, but I can't even imagine Biden as president. So, as I mentioned on HT last week, I just might sit this one out. It appears Bernie will win my state by a bunch.

If Bloomberg emerges, I'd have to learn a bunch more about him before I'd even consider a vote. About all I know about Bloomberg is that he did or tried to outlaw large sodas:) I've hardly heard the guy speak.

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althea_gw

Bloomberg used to be a Republican. He endorsed Giuliani, Bush & McCain. Then for awhile Bloomberg was an independent. Now he running as a Democrat.

Maybe Al Gore can jump in yet

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Anna

Trump was a Democrat all his life and his kids couldn’t vote for him in the primary because they were registered Democrats.

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foodonastump

Warren was a republican... and then there’s Bernie...

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Toby

Candidates have websites. You don't need to rely on debates to learn their platforms.

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Ann

Toby, if I cared enough about Bloomberg, I'd check out his website. For now, I don't care enough.

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Ann

"Trump was a Democrat all his life and his kids couldn’t vote for him in the primary because they were registered Democrats."

Sure glad he's not acting a thing like a Democratic politician while he's in office.

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numbersjunkie

No, he's acting like the mob boss, con man he is.

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althea_gw

Biden was an Independent for awhile in the '70's.

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Tito Milian

Ann, I’m glad, too. Mostly but he’s not a kick the can down the road Democrat.

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Ann

Yay, we've finally reached the time were we get to learn about some actuals rather than just having polls and guesses/predictions to go by. I can't wait for the real action to begin tonight - and three more times in this month alone. Then, immediately followed by the super informative super Tuesday.

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Ann

Or not:)

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queenmargo

LOL

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Ann

Wow, if Trump wasn't already having a good day, the contents of this article from today should really make his day. Some amazing polling info within this article!

ETA: The highest confidence in the economy in two decades. I can't wait to hear the next Dem debate and the candidates tell us how the economy isn't working for most:)

https://news.gallup.com/poll/284156/trump-job-approval-personal-best.aspx

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queenmargo

One can not get enough good information about Trump Ann, thanks!

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Ann

94% Republican approval and the first time GOP favorability has exceeded 50% in the last 15 years. Those, paired with the economy numbers, are such great news for Trump. Heck, his approval in this Gallup poll surpasses his Rasmussen approval in their latest poll.

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Del Phinium

"I can't wait to hear the next Dem debate and the candidates tell us how the economy isn't working for most:)"

Klobuchar is already on top of it, Ann, lol. She was talking about it during her "victory" speech last night ;)

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Ann

The more the Dem candidates talk about how this economy isn't working, the more the audience will look like the cute three goats meme Margo posts. The look of "huh?" confusion.

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Nana H

Given the electoral college I prefer to look at things at a State level rather than National level. The swing States are crucial and manufacturing and agriculture are the mainstay of several of them including the States that gave Trump the WH.

Both industries are hurting in those crucial States . Manufacturing has seen continued contraction for five months which puts them in a technical recession. January saw a slight rebound but it's questionable if it will continue. The agricultural sector has really taken a hit these past two years. I don' t think it is coincidental that Trump has lost support in those States.

They say politics is local...so is the economy.


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Ann

I think we should look at those swing states when the polls close in November, Nana:)

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Nana H

I suspect you will be following them before then.

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Ann

Great point, Nana. I will enjoy following them. Which particular states are on your mind in your "several of them" and "crucial" wording in your quote below? I'll keep an especially close eye on them leading up to the election.

But, those darn polls can be deceiving, can't they? Biden had a solid second place position in the RCP Iowa average, and we might find out that was certainly wrong in less than an hour. We'll soon see.

"The swing States are crucial and manufacturing and agriculture are the mainstay of several of them including the States that gave Trump the WH."

Both industries are hurting in those crucial States . "

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catkinZ8a

Who's jumping in Lurch Kohn or Crooked Hillary?

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HU-885118952

Not Lurch.

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Nana H

I think we all know which swing States are crucial in terms of the electoral college.

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Ann

Well, at one point, you were most focused on the three states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. But, then you swapped one of those for another. I think Ohio entered the picture for you at that point. Any new additions for you in your "crucial" list?

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catkinZ8a

Mission Accomplished – Chaos in Iowa Caucuses Helps and Hurts All The Right Candidates…

Posted on February 4, 2020 by sundance

From the DNC Club’s perspective there were three strategic needs surrounding the Iowa caucuses: (1) Hide the collapse of Joe Biden; (2) Diminish the win by Bernie Sanders; and (3) cover-up a less than enthusiastic voter turnout. Given the nature of very public primary races, this three-pronged challenge seemed almost impossible.

Almost.

If everything just seemed to collapse, go wrong, and become a mess; and if the end of the night outcomes could be delayed and undetermined; well, in that scenario the objective would be considered ‘mission accomplished‘ on all three points.

That exact scenario just coincidentally happened.

Despite the media proclaiming Biden was leading the field for the past six months during the impeachment narrative, Joe Biden likely came in fourth or fifth. He may not have gained any delegates in Iowa. No-one will pay attention to that now… and few will question how the “media polling” could have gotten it so wrong. [Tip: they lie]


Simultaneously, Bernie Sanders didn’t stand on stage, declare victory, and receive the praise earned in 2020 that was robbed from him in 2016. No results means no grand victory and momentum. Oh, it’ll probably be declared sometime today that Bernie Sanders won, but, meh, doesn’t deliver the same electoral value. [DNC Club smiling here]

Turnout? The media have been hyping the Democrats chomping at the bit, drowning in buckets of enthusiastic voters who can’t wait to defeat the orange-man. This media narrative has been hyped dramatically for well over a year… building…. building…. to the exact moment last night when such incredible turnout would have been visible. [It wasn’t]

"In terms of turnout…turnout was not quite as high as they expected here…" Katy Tur reporting from a Democratic caucus in Des Moines, IA. pic.twitter.com/W8ApuZp0LD

— Francis Brennan (Text TRUMP to 88022) (@FrancisBrennan) February 4, 2020

Instead all the candidates claimed victory with Pete Buttigieg unashamedly standing atop the tallest podium and decrying his campaign won the state of Iowa and he was heading to New Hampshire the most victorious of them all. ….as if, well, as if that was pre-planned.

Sad trombone.

CTH isn’t going to get into the weeds of the failed reporting App that supposedly was behind the Iowa crisis, or the “shadow” tech company that was behind the App and directly connected to the Clinton DNC apparatus; which also just happens to have a connection to Buttigieg. That part doesn’t matter now; done is done. How the Club did it is less important than everyone understanding what took place wasn’t an organic accident.

Factually this ‘conspiracy theory‘ stuff is so predictable now, even the most die-hard ostriches don’t try to defend it any longer. However, the hubris behind it is rather remarkable.

Joe Biden’s campaign is organized Astroturf, but he needs to keep up appearances. Warren and Buttigieg are inauthentic posers, but they need to hang around to pick up Biden’s supporters and keep Bernie in check. Meanwhile the DNC boardroom will do whatever is needed to try and forestall Sanders, and defend against a hostile takeover.

It’s going to get uglier.

Bernie supporters are eyes-wide-open. The DNC is playing with unstable explosives now.

How ugly it will get is already visible by the extents the Club is willing to go to control the outcomes. As bad as the Iowa program was/is…. well, it is still only a precursor to how far the Club is willing to go….

…I’m afraid we can’t let you do that Bernie”…


https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/02/04/mission-accomplished-chaos-in-iowa-caucuses-helps-and-hurts-all-the-right-candidates/

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catkinZ8a

1 min ago

CNN's Jake Tapper:

"We're in a time where faith in institutions is eroding," Tapper said. "And it is important to have the faith and integrity in elections, especially after 2016 when the Russians interfered with the elections."

He continued:

"So, it is very important that elected officials and the party leaders do everything they can to have faith, and encourage faith in the electoral process and the problem here is that there's been very little communication, there's been very little answering of the questions."

Tapper explained that crisis communication experts typical advise people and institutions "get out all of the information as soon as possible" and "be completely transparent."

"They have done the exact opposite of that very classic or reasonable advice," Tapper said.

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catkinZ8a

IDP Chair Troy Price speaking NOW.

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HU-885118952

Tough crowd.

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catkinZ8a

Mayor Cheat? Rich!

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catkinZ8a

The remaining mystery 38% must be for Bernie, lololol!

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Ann

Catkin, sadly, that could be close to true:(

This has been so darn bizarre, beginning with the Buttigieg campaign complaint stopping that Des Moines Register poll from being released. Just so darn fishy, all of it (including this release of 62%).

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Stan Areted

Bernie--

When you have the most votes, but they equally distribute them among other candidates.


Come on Bernie--SHARE like you lecture us.

You did the work but share your votes!

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Ann

I'll be very interested to see if Bernie passes Buttigieg when 100% has been reported. I'll really think this 62% partial report is fishy (and a planned tactic) if Bernie ends up winning Iowa.

Bernie is dropping all over the place and in many states on predictit right now. If he ends up winning Iowa, it will be SO unfair that this is happening to him. His supporters will freak out (and should) if he wins Iowa.

Biden is completely done, IMO.

Bloomberg is smiling.

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Ann

Time for some MSNBC for me. I'm super curious!

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llucy

I'm smiling Pete did so well. :)

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catkinZ8a

Mayor Cheat's claiming victory right now on the airwaves.

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Ann

Buttigieg is certainly playing it up right this minute. No doubt. Fine if he wins Iowa, but will be super weird if he doesn't.

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catkinZ8a

Young and dumb Mayor Cheat.

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queenmargo

Buttigieg is certainly playing it up right this minute. No doubt. Fine if he wins Iowa, but will be super weird if he doesn't.

I think they should have held the results til fully counted. It has been holding at 62% for a long time, giving Pete a lot of time to claim victory. Another fail in my opinion.

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Kathy

Iowa is so yesterday.

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Ann

"Iowa is so yesterday."

I think Biden certainly wishes that. I think the entire primary season might be yesterday for him.

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loonlakelaborcamp(3 A/B)

No info on what parts of Iowa are the 62% big difference between city and rural, or even university areas. Could go any which way still. They should've held off until 100%

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elvis

Watch. Biden will miraculously surge, and the reason will be that "the votes were from Biden supporting areas". Uh-huh.

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Ann

I heard on MSNBC earlier (Kornacki) that more results (besides 62%) were to be released tonight. Not so far.

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foodonastump

I heard the opposite on CNN earlier, that not likely tonight. Poor communication has exacerbated this mess, no one can deny that.

ETA - the second I hit submit wolf said we’re expecting more results.

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queenmargo

food- Trump did not mention the impeachment ;))

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Ann

Good news for Trump in polls. For the first time I can remember, Trump is sitting at 49% approval in three different most recent polls in the RCP list. His average is 45.5, at its high, but my favorite part is the three different 49% ratings, from 3 different pollsters, at the same time.

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Nana H

49 or higher is not the least bit unusual for Harris or Rasmussen. It helps that Rasmussen appears three, Harris as often as two , times a week on RCP assuring a high number is always in the average .

BTW Gallop isn't one the most recent polls on that list. In fact is it is about to fall off the list. The polls more recent than Gallop reflect much lower numbers . Gallop is the outlier other than the two that constantly have him in the high 40' s

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Ann

Nana, I saw this new CNN video (John King) and thought of you for numerous reasons. I know you sometimes watch CNN, you are interested in individual states in regard to the upcoming election, and this is very much in line with the Trump approval discussion we were just having yesterday.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Is4uSbnfRWM

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Ann

"I think Gardner is the most likely GOP senator to lose his seat and I think Jones is the most likely Dem senator to lose his seat."

This was from the/my second comment in this thread. Senate contest polls have been few and far between so far. But, in RCP, there are a series of Alabama polls that came out today. Sessions has a 13 point lead over Jones in Alabama. Sessions still needs to win the GOP primary for that race, but two of his GOP opponents were also listed against Doug Jones in this new poll, and both also had a nice lead against Jones (but less than the Sessions' lead).

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foodonastump

Who’s Trump skeered of today?


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Toby

I wonder how many tiny Trump voters he just insulted.

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queenmargo

Not me;)

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foodonastump

I don’t recall seeing any green before. Earlier today NY was definitely not green.


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Ann

Bloomberg has had a predictit rise in the last day (nationally and within individual states).

Trump has a few good points in his tweets. Bernie's supporters might not take kindly to the Bloomberg rise. In no way are Bernie and Bloomberg even close to interchangeable! This will be an interesting contest between those two.

Then, I have no clue about his presence, because his only substantive presence so far has been his money. He has yet to be in a debate and doesn't seem to be interacting with reporters (and questions) one bit. I never see him and I have been watching a lot of left media (MSNBC) lately to get a feel for the liberal take on their candidates. Is Bloomberg laying low (personally) for some reason? Is he an interesting person/candidate? I'll be interested to see him begin to make media appearances - or if he already is - where? As Trump said, "you will see" - and I wonder when.

While Pete and Amy are not seeming like they are going to have staying power, Bloomberg does seem to be where Dems nervous about Bernie are putting their current hopes. I've got to say, you Dems are providing a super interesting beginning to this primary season. This is fun to watch!!!!

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foodonastump

I believe right now his live interactions are more about courting influencers than voters. The current front-runners will comment about his buying his way in, but overall seem reserved in their attacks. Kudos to Amy for saying he belongs on the debate stage. I predict significant attacks will come slowly from the moderates who won’t know if and when they’ll need him. I do have a lot of concern about Bernie, and predict his name will come up a lot when we talk about losing 2020 to Trump.

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Ann

FOAS, am I remembering correctly that Bloomberg is the nominee you are hoping for?

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foodonastump

Let’s add some nuance, Ann, he’s the one I’m most hopeful for.

ETA - weighing together who I would like and who I think could win, he’s my choice.

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Ann

Well, the betting market has the Dem race as a two person race between Bernie and Bloomberg right now, with no one else even close. I think Bloomberg is now in a spot where he needs to get himself out there, on TV (I'm sure everyone is inviting him), etc. If he doesn't do that and quickly, I think his rise will be rightfully questioned and criticized, and quickly. I know there is a debate in 6 days, but I think he needs to make himself available before that - just as Bernie and Buttigieg did last week on the Sunday shows. If he "hides", I would expect the Bernie supporters to come after his "hiding" hard and I think it would be deserved. Bloomberg appears to now be in 2nd place by a bunch above the rest of the pack and I know nothing about him. I shouldn't have to search to learn a thing about someone at the top of polls or to even hear his voice. That's crazy.

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Ann

Now Biden is picking up a little steam again (like in SC). This is really fun to watch on predicit. All the various candidates and the voter indecision is making for a very interesting primary situation. Definitely not a snoozer this election year. This makes the debates and news about the election a lot more interesting.

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foodonastump


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Ann

FOAS, what is that a chart of?


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Ann

It looks like Biden is regenerating predictit support in several southern states. Just a few days ago, he wasn't leading in any state and now he is in a few. This uptick is happening as hecklers are yelling at him to drop out. But, he is actually doing better within the betting market right now than either Buttigieg or Klobuchar. Today, among those placing bets, it's a race between Bernie, Bloomberg and Biden.

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paprikash

Just caught the end of Cavuto a few minutes ago. Rumor has it Bloomberg would like Hillary as his VP!

Wouldn’t that be interesting?

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foodonastump

I think I heard Drudge is pushing that. Might be disqualifying for me. But I have a hard time believing it.

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Zalco/bring back Sophie!

Two people with zero charisma, Bloomberg & HRC, going against Trump? Methinks not.

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foodonastump

Who would want their candidacy overshadowed like that? Wouldn’t make sense.

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Ann

FOAS, please tell us what that chart is from 12 hours ago. I'm very curious.

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foodonastump

Nope, it’s a puzzle! ;) Shouldn’t be too hard if you think about it. Here’s an update:


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Nana H

I think Bloomberg would be best served by someone like Abrahms. I can't see him choosing HC that makes zero sense.

I saw an debating expert on TV this AM. He said Bloomerg is very thorough with his answers to questions and would likely not do well in 30 second sound bites.

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foodonastump

I just watched that, too, nana. In a world where even the news focuses on zingers and one-liners, it might be a challenge for him to stand out.

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Nana H

That' s one of the reasons I put very little stock in debates. Frankly, I find them more annoying than enlightening.

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Ann

Oh, okay FOAS. I'll leave you to the puzzles. Weird.

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foodonastump

That’s fine!

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Ann

A little bored today, I was doing some looking back at the changing views about Bernie over time. I came across this thread from when Bernie announced his current presidential run. It was kind of a fun "flashback" thread to read.


https://www.gardenweb.com/discussions/5620646/bernie-for-president-2020#addAnswer

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foodonastump

Wow that thread seems like generations ago! Different set of B’s in the conversation. Beto, Becca, Bry...

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Ann

When I browsed it, I thought the same. I was amazed it was just a year ago.

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Ann

Not much of any polling released today except for a single poll for the Nevada primary. Bernie has a 19 point lead in that poll over Warren (who is in 2nd). Warren, Buttigieg, and Biden are all packed together (just 1 point between those three). That's a huge Bernie lead and far exceeds his previous lead. For the last year in Nevada, Biden has led in all the polls until the last two (this one and one other), where Bernie is now leading. But, this one has that impressive 19 point lead over the rest of the field. It could be a good day for Bernie on Saturday!

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catkinZ8a

What? She'd have to choose between being VP or Governor of Alabama.

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Nana H

I think Bloomberg would be best served by someone like Abrahms. I can't see him choosing HC that makes zero sense.

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