A little drill down on impeachment polling

Ann

Nationally, 53% support impeachment and removal. Very strong support right now! But, in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Arizona the results are 53% oppose and 43% support. Interesting, especially for those who like to closely follow the battleground or swing states.

I'm seeing the information on Martha McCallum's show (her opening story tonight), but it came from a NYT/Siena College Survey, according to the bottom of the chart she is displaying.

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Carro

The swing states are very interesting. Trump also has lots of money to spend in those states.

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jama7(6)

That is for impeachment AND removal which is off in the future a bit and where unknowns lurk. Many voters are probably unlikely to skip ahead and be in favor of removal until they know more facts. Those voters in those same battleground states who are following the current events and the inquiry are in FAVOR of it 50/45. One step at a time. The article also points out the more engaged and informed the voter, the more likely they are in favor of the inquiry/impeachment.

" The Times wanted to know how the Democrats’ impeachment push was doing in the six states most likely to decide the next election — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona. They discovered that voters there do support the impeachment inquiry, by a 50/45 margin.

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Ann

Carro, the amount of money pouring into his campaign compared to the DNC and Dem candidates was a second part of Martha's story. This "impeachment" has really increased the contributions to historically impressive levels. You bet he has a lot of money to spend in those states!

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Andie

Things will definitely change when testimony becomes public.

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Ann

Jama, I tried to read the article but hit a paywall.

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nancy_in_venice_ca Sunset 24 z10

Ha!

Andie beat me to it -- wait until Ambassador Taylor's testimony has had a chance to sink in.

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Ann

"public" - what's that? Nothing that is part of this situation!

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Ann

Today's tactical leak of the day. Just wait until tomorrow - it will get even better, lol.

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chase_gw

"public" - what's that? Nothing that is part of this situation!"

Ann, perhaps your news sources have not reported that all the depositions will be made public and then pubic testimony will proceed an impeachment vote.

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Kathy

Today’s statement by Bill Taylor will change a lot of minds.

https://time.com/5707713/bill-taylor-opening-statement-impeachment-inquiry/

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margaux

That poll is now obsolete.

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Andie

Throw out a few more LOLs, this is a laugh a minute.

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vgkg Z-7 Va(Z-7)

I'll go out on a limb and guess that those states pro-impeachment polls have been steadily rising like the national polls.

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Andie

Ann, have you seen this ad running on Fox from Republicans for the Rule of Law?


https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1186806866434809859

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catkinZ8a

jama7(6)

That is for impeachment AND removal which is off in the future a bit

____________________________

In your dreams.

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Ann

Chase, do you mean precede?

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mtnrdredux_gw

I have heard more granular analysis of the polls that I'll share here:


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elvis

Ann, perhaps your news sources have not reported that all the depositions will be made public and then pubic testimony will proceed[sic] an impeachment vote.

Ann

Chase, do you mean precede?

Could be. Or chase may mean "proceed to".

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Izzy Mn(4)

Trumps fundraising is atrocious.

My parents support Trump. They were getting calls to request donations to reelect Trump about one every two weeks. They did make a one time donation for the election campaign. But that's all they chose to donate. She told them several times they are on a limited income and can't donate anymore, but they keep calling.

Now I find out that the past week they are getting robo calls every day. She picked up one (they normally don't answer if they don't recognize phone number) . The latest pitch is help Trump beat impeachment and asking for more money.


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mrskjun(9)

Well, it seems to be working. The small donations are pouring in, and I would imagine will keep doing so as long as the dems keep up this secret kangaroo court. Most Americans have a sense of fair play. And they know it's not happening here.

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jama7(6)

There it is again..."MOST" Americans. Trump's supporters are no more than 40 odd% and the majority of Americans support this inquiry.

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Iris GW

Most Americans want the inquiry.

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chase_gw

Ann, did you know that all the testimony would be made public and that there will be public hearings when you stated "public" - what's that? Nothing that is part of this situation!"?

Additionally, it is my understanding that , with the approval of the witness, opening statements would be released. Sondland's lawyer released his. Not sure who released this one....but it.sure is an eye opener for anyone who wants to open them.

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Annie Deighnaugh

In a Quinnipiac University poll released early Wednesday, 55 percent of U.S. voters support the impeachment inquiry, a jump of 4 percentage points from Quinnipiac's previous poll, released just last week, while 43 percent disapprove. For the first time, a plurality of voters, 48 percent, want Trump impeached and removed from office while 46 percent disagree; last week, those numbers were reversed.

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lurker111

Impeachment delusions. lol

Dream on.

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Ann

"I'll go out on a limb and guess that those states pro-impeachment polls have been steadily rising like the national polls."

Actually, some have and others are going down. For example, while Quinnipiac support has increased in the last week, both Reuters/Ipsos and Politico/Morning Consult have decreased.

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Iris GW

55 percent of U.S. voters support the impeachment inquiry, a jump of 4 percentage points from Quinnipiac's previous poll, released just last week

= Impeachment delusions. lol

Only in a world with alternative facts.

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chase_gw

The one thing we don't know is why people say what they do in polls. It may be, that some who don't favour impeachment believe voting him out is better......and that's what they intend to do.

Same with those who say they are undecided when it comes to voting for Trump. Could it be that some are Republicans who are trying to come to grips with voting for Trump or voting Democratic?

We simply do not know their reasoning or motivation.

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Ann

Along the same line as my previous comment:

"Republican support for impeachment has cooled since the September poll, though, with only six percent of GOP respondents now in favor compared to 14 percent last month. Among Democrats, 87 percent support impeachment, while 50 percent of independents support it. Trump's approval has also risen two points since before the official impeachment inquiry was announced."

https://theweek.com/speedreads/873430/support-trumps-impeachment-reaches-new-high-cnn-poll-but-gop-backing-declines

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Ann

"It may be, that some who don't favour impeachment believe voting him out is better......and that's what they intend to do."

I think this is very likely. We're in the midst of election season. I bet there are a lot of people who feel voters should decide who is or isn't president - especially with an upcoming election looming.

Those same voters who feel that way may be forming an opinion about the secret impeachment effort and factoring that opinion into their voting decision (one direction or the other). The question is, which party and which people will this secret impeachment effort help and which will it hurt. On that, I'd guess we might have significantly different opinions.

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margaux

When the trial comes to the Senate, I hope that no Senator bases their vote on anything other than the evidence that is presented to them. Right now, most voters couldn't even tell you in much detail what the inquiry is about or they are hearing one side of it because of their choice of media. Just that some Trumpers think that the GOP is being shut out of the hearings by the Dems is evidence of how little they understand of the process. "Kangaroo court"...lol!

Ambassador Taylor referenced many others in his statement and they still have to give their testimony.

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margaux

What makes it a secret impeachment, Ann?

Voters can be given that decision in lieu of Congress if they are willing to sit through all the hearings and examine all the evidence, just like our Congress members will have to do. But no, we're too darn lazy to do that homework. Have you read Taylor's statement, Ann?

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chase_gw

"The question is, which party and which people will this secret impeachment effort help and which will it hurt. On that, I'd guess we might have significantly different opinions."

Actually, I don't have any opinion on that , just like I have no opinion on whether he should be impeached or not......and the impeachment isn't a secret.

As far as the polls go , I would be watching the move in Independants. Repubs and Dems are pretty much dug in.

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Iris GW

I'm sorry that people have the impression that impeachment is partisan. Was the impeachment of Clinton a partisan effort? He lied under oath. The process to investigate that was appropriate.

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margaux

Which is why Trump's lawyer wouldn't let him testify for Mueller. They knew he'd lie under oath and that would be the end of him.

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Iris GW

In hindsight, lying under oath might have been the least of his problems.

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Ann

I'll add Economist/YouGov as another poll where impeachment and removal support has dropped in the last week. I'm starting to wonder if we might have reached a peak and now support is starting to head down. Too early to tell, but I'll keep an eye on it.

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Kathy

Big increase in Independents for impeachment.

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Ann

What poll are you looking at, Kathy? I'd be surprised if the three polls that have dropped in recent days had an increase among Independents.

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Kathy


Check Real clear politics most all have risen for impeachment and removal.

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Kathy

Ann, do you have more recent polls?

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jama7(6)

Well, we've probably topped out at 55% in favor of because Trumpers comprise about 40%, maybe a bit lower so that will be low #. These numbers closely resemble approval numbers....no surprise.


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chase_gw

Ann, one thing is for sure your prediction that the one poll showing Trump at 49% approval would be a trend when this all first started to unfold was way off the mark......

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Ann

Kathy, thank you. That is exactly what I was looking at to determine that impeachment support has increased in recent days in the Quinnipiac poll and decreased in the 3 polls I mentioned. That chart you posted doesn't break it down to Independents, but maybe the individual 3 polls will. I'll look into each and see if, in those three polls I mentioned, Independent support is up while overall support is down (or if I can only access detail of the most recent release). I doubt it.

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Ann

"Ann, one thing is for sure your prediction that the one poll showing Trump at 49% approval would be a trend when this all first started to unfold was way off the mark......"

Quote please. You have a strong tendency to twist my words.

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Ann

"Big increase in Independents for impeachment."

Kathy, obviously you did not dive into those details. It's time consuming, but I just did investigate Independents for the three polls where there has been an "overall" drop in impeachment in a weeks' time. So, I don't know what timeframe or what polls you were looking at, but in the latest weeks (which was the discussion point you appeared to be responding to), there has not been a big increase in Independents for impeachment.

Among Independents, in the Politico poll support for impeachment was 49% on 10/13 and 45% on 10/21 - so a 4% drop in that one in the week.

In the Economist poll, support for impeachment among Independents was 36% on 10/15 and 38% on 10/22 - so a 2% increase in that one in the week.

Reuters also showed an overall drop of 5 points in impeachment in a week (from 10/8 to 10/16 (10/16 being the most recent Reuters poll)), but it only showed the "Independents" number for the 10/8 week, when it was 28% support and 44% oppose.

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Kathy


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Ann

Kathy, I posted this:

"I'll add Economist/YouGov as another poll where impeachment and removal support has dropped in the last week. I'm starting to wonder if we might have reached a peak and now support is starting to head down. Too early to tell, but I'll keep an eye on it."

Two minutes later, you posted this:

"Big increase in Independents for impeachment."

Were you addressing my comment from two minutes earlier or were you talking about an increase over the last year and a quarter?

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Ziemia(6a)

Kathy - would you please give the link for that chart?

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Kathy

I was speaking about the recent increase in Independents for Impeachment and removal. They were talking about it today. I believe they were referring to the Quinnipiac poll.

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Ann

A little more on this topic. The same poll is referenced, but more discussion of the swing state issue Dems face.


https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/26/politics/impeachment-unpopular-swing-states-wisconsin/index.html

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Ann

More info on these swing states from a Hill article today.

"A Marquette University Law School survey of Wisconsin released last week found 46 percent supporting the impeachment inquiry, but 49 percent opposed. Just 44 percent say Trump should be impeached and removed from office, compared to 51 percent opposed.

And in Wisconsin, support for impeachment is far lower among independent voters. Just 35 percent of independents in Wisconsin say the impeachment hearings are warranted, and 33 percent say Trump should be impeached and removed from office."

"The numbers coming out of New Hampshire similarly reflect less support for impeachment than there is nationally, with a CNN–University of New Hampshire survey finding that 42 percent support impeaching and removing Trump from office, compared to 51 percent opposed."

"A new Emerson College poll finds that 50 percent of respondents in Arizona oppose impeachment, against 44 percent who support it."

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chase_gw

I wouldn't confuse not supporting impeachment with intending to support him in 2020.

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Ann

Okay Chase.

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chase_gw

In suspect there are lot of people who want him voted out......rather than impeached.

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Iris GW

Still holding onto an average of 51.2 percent who support the proceedings.

We all know the Senate will acquit him so that's as far as it will go. And I'm happy with waiting to vote him out.

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Ann

"And I'm happy with waiting to vote him out."

That's the spirit. That's the way it should work.

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margaux

A new ABC poll shows that 18% of Republicans support impeachment and removal from office.

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Iris GW

That's the spirit. That's the way it should work.

Well, to be fair, it's only because I don't want Pence. Honestly, a president should be impeached and removed if warranted. I'm afraid the Senate will just be protecting him and that is not what we elect them to do.


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vgkg Z-7 Va(Z-7)

"A new ABC poll shows that 18% of Republicans support impeachment and removal from office."

Yes I've seen that 18% in the news too, it's very encouraging since more recently the repubs have backed trump around 90% without budging, and impeachment aside his "approval" rating among repubs was reported to be in the mid 70's now. Some are backing away from the kool-aid and are beginning to sober up. I knew they'd start coming around, had faith in them.

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carolb_w_fl_coastal_9b(zone 9/10)

There's only slightly over 1 year left in the term. Who thinks Pence would win as the GOP candidate?

I've a hunch he wouldn't be much better at this job than our current president.

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vgkg Z-7 Va(Z-7)

Pence would be in a pinch. He would have to choose to either pardon or not pardon trump. A catch-22 that would end his hopes for 2020.

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