Republican Dan Bishop Wins Special Election in NC's District #9

catkinZ8a
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numbersjunkie


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maddie260

This was a TERRIBLE night for the Rs!!! This was viewed as a bellwether election by both parties. dt won here by 12 points in 2016. Rs had to bring out POTUS, Jr, and the VP to win by 2 points???? Trouble ahead in 2020. I’m sure phones are ringing all over at the RNC!!

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catkinZ8a

Winning is losing. Left Wing Democrats

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cattyles

Congratulations on barely squeaking by, Bishop.

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catkinZ8a

Bishop won traditionally blue Cumberland County, hmmm.

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Ann

Since I watch polls, now that this is over, I wanted to see how the polling looked. I found this from 8/30 (from Roll Call):

"Democrat Dan McCready has a narrow advantage over Republican Dan Bishop heading into the final days of the Sept. 10 redo election in North Carolina’s 9th District, according to a new bipartisan poll for Inside Elections.

The survey, conducted from Monday through Wednesday by Harper Polling and Clarity Campaign Labs, showed McCready ahead of Bishop, 46 percent to 42 percent, with two third-party candidates receiving a combined 3 percent. Some 8 percent of voters were “unsure” and the survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.19 percentage points.

When voters who were leaning toward one candidate were included, McCready’s advantage extended to 49-44 percent."

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Chi

Sounds like the advantage was within the margin of error.

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Ann

Then, from fivethirtyeight, the most recent poll (9/7) showed a McCready lead of 3. In district 3, the most recent poll was 9/3 and showed a Murphy lead of 11. Murphy won by 24 and Bishop by 2.

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Ann

I was watching MSNBC tonight because they were showing the numbers coming in. Kornacki said the early votes came in very strong for McCready (almost a dream come true for Dems). But, then the votes from today started coming in and Bishop took the lead. This led Kornacki to wonder about the impact Trump's rally had, thinking it may have certainly had notable significance.

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Ann

I had never heard Bishop speak until last night at the rally. Oh my, I kind of wanted him to sit down quickly. I got a little worried, especially since I'd seen McCready and he seemed like a strong candidate. A ton of money (13 million) was poured into this special election in this district.

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numbersjunkie


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loonlakelaborcamp(3 A/B)

McCready had been campaigning for 23 months. Bishop only campaigned since the election was overturned. Bishop did very well.

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maddie260

I'll be watching how Fox spins this tomorrow.

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chase_gw

A win is a win but this was a drop of 10 points from what Trump won
this district by.Million of $'s , a last minute rallys by Trump and the
win was still narrow in a district that has voted Republican since 1962.

This should not have been this close. I think it shows how well a
moderate Dem can do in Red States and for sure bodes well for purple
States.

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graywings123(7)

I'm disappointed, for sure. But in a state so highly jerrymandered, this is to be expected.

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mrskjun(9)

LOL, the last election in this same district the republican won 53 to 47. But this time it shouldn't have been so close. Dream on!

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Carro

catkinZ8a

Winning is losing. Left Wing Democrats

Eh, let them have their Orwellian salve to sooth themselves. It's better to keep them soothed...

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Carro


loonlakelaborcamp(3 A/B)

McCready had been campaigning for 23 months. Bishop only campaigned since the election was overturned. Bishop did very well.

Bishop wasn't a great candidate on many levels, but he still won.

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cattyles

Barely.

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Carro

Wattsamatta, catty?? Did the Democratic vote let you down in NC?

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Carro


mrskjun(9)

LOL, the last election in this same district the republican won 53 to 47. But this time it shouldn't have been so close. Dream on!

Isn't too funny how the Trump haters want to EC abolished in favor of a popular vote, where ONE more vote for one candidate over the other would mean victory. Then when NC holds a straight popular vote, they decry...BARELY!!!!


WAAAAAAAAAAAAAA HE BARELY WON IT'S NO FAIR DEMOCRACY DIES IN DARKNESS ORANGE MAN BAD RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA TOILET WATER!!!!

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heri _ cles

I wonder what percentage of white voters voted Republican. Maybe 75% ?

NC is part of the Bible Belt so Trump took full advantage and was at a rally telling his sycophants that Democrats don't like religion very much. Trump is just the best there is at dividing people , isn't he? That works in politics if you know how to take advantage of it, and he does.

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Chi

I don't see anyone complaining about it being a popular vote? Who said it wasn't fair?

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Eat Well

How are dems “let down” by the concrete evidence of devastating erosion of republican support in a former republican strong hold?

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Carro

heri, your Leftist candidates take full advantage of every single leftist voter, pumping leftist hatred and ideology, their hatred of religion and their love of illegals over American.

That works in politics if you know how to take advantage of it, and they do.

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Carro

Chi

I don't see anyone complaining about it being a popular vote? Who said it wasn't fair?


Barely...



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Carro

1st election- CHEATING!!

2nd election- BARELY!!


Right on cue.

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Chi

Yeah, using "barely" to describe a narrow win is not the same as saying a popular vote is unfair.

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Joaniepoanie

No spin and no surprise. It was way closer than it should have been for a district that has been solid R for 56 years in a southern conservative state. It shows Dems have gained a lot of ground.

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chase_gw

" the last election in this same district the republican won 53 to
47. But this time it shouldn't have been so close. Dream on! "

.......remind me again why the first election was rendered void and a new election held? We have no idea what the real numbers were in the first go round.

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Carro


Chi

Yeah, using "barely" to describe a narrow win is not the same as saying a popular vote is unfair.

Either you want popular vote or you don't. Bellyaching an insinuating that there's some magical margin which makes the win legit flies in the face of the Left's insistence that the only fair way to vote is by popular vote.

By a hair or by a landslide, this is what the Trump haters want. Allegedly.

Until they lose.

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mrskjun(9)

LOL chase, why would I use the results of a voided election. It was voided. Do you need a reminder that a voided election doesn't count?

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Carro


Joaniepoanie

No spin and no surprise. It was way closer than it should have been for a district that has been solid R for 56 years in a southern conservative state. It shows Dems have gained a lot of ground.

Well, actually, no, it doesn't, Joaniepoanie, and here's why.

First, Democrats far outspent Republicans. 8MM was poured in.

Second, Republicans have positive movement where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 60%-13%, but Trump *won* in 2016.

This is exactly the kind of county that narrowly went for Trump in 2016 but went heavy Democrat in 2018. Last night, it nearly flipped back and that’s without a presidential race going on.

If viewed through the lens of what happened in 2018, this is good news for Trump.

Bishop won against the backdrop of a massive GOP scandal and an abundance of outside money for his opponent.

While not dispositive for 2020, it was a good night for Republicans and certainly for Trump, and gives both sides a lot to unpack for the next elections.


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Chi

Either you want popular vote or you don't. Bellyaching an insinuating that there's some magical margin which makes the win legit flies in the face of the Left's insistence that the only fair way to vote is by popular vote.

Is there a single person who said the win wasn't legit? Is there a single person who said the results were unfair? Is there a single person who said they don't want the popular vote after this election?

I really don't get this logic that somehow pointing out that it was a narrow victory means the left is "bellyaching" about popular elections.

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patriciae_gw(07)

Both elections have something to say. The last Republican candidate was so worried about his possibilities that he hired himself a fixer. That is a statement you need to internalize. He apparently was over reacting (like Nixon). So this time around an aroused public got out and voted and it was very close. That is interesting. Who is saying it isn't a legitimate win for the Republican but it is an indication of change. And that is always interesting.

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cattyles

No bellyaching or insinuation in my comment that is now gone but broke no rules.

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margaux

Democrats are very happy with McCready's performance in the 'burbs. It matters more than the rural turnout in the 2020 House races. Here's why:

The biggest worry coming out of Tuesday
night has to be the suburbs. In 2018, Republican candidates got drubbed
in the suburbs -- due, in large part, to the distaste that Republican
and independent women felt toward Trump. That trend continued Tuesday,
with McCready actually outperforming
even his 2018 showing in Mecklenburg County, a suburban county just
south of Charlotte. On Tuesday, McCready won Mecklenburg by 13, a
3-point improvement on his margin from 2018.

Now,
Bishop still won -- thanks to increased performance in the more rural
parts of the district where Trump remains very popular.

The
problem for lots of Republican House members looking at 2020 is that
their districts are more suburban than Bishop's. There aren't enough
rural areas to make up for the major progress Democratic candidates are
making in the once GOP-dominated suburbs. (In 2018,suburban voters comprised 51% of the electorate and split their votes between Democratic and Republican candidates. Less than a decade earlier -- 2010 -- Republicans won suburban voters by 12 points.)

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/11/politics/north-carolina-9-dan-bishop-dan-mccready/index.html

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chase_gw

"the last election in this same district the republican won 53 to 47"

Which election was that?

" why would I use the results of a voided election. It was voided."

No why on earth would that happen?


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Ann

The District 3 race was a complete wipeout. While I know the Republican candidate was predicted to win that one, that was a serious win, maybe double what was expected. That one wasn't followed as closely, because the polls didn't show the candidates close, but I find that wipeout interesting.

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Andie

Trump says "we picked up two seats." Neither is a pick-up. The GOP previously controlled both.

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Eat Well

It seems that posting taunts like WAAAAAAAA isn’t considered disruptive. Good to know.

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cattyles

It’s okay for an election to be a”wipeout” but “squeaker” is cause for a scolding?

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chase_gw

Trump can grow his support in districts that love him by orders of magnitude .....but that isn't gong to help him win in 2020. The popular vs electoral vote swings both ways.

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Andie

Eat Well, that Hot Topics thread disappeared after the disrupters stepped in. That is a good thing.

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chijim

In a district that's been solid Republican since 1963 - a Democratic challenger should not have lost by 2 points.

Trump...you in trouble boy!

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catkinZ8a

catkinZ8a

Winning is losing. Left Wing Democrats

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catkinZ8a

chijim

Trump...you in trouble boy!

__________________________

Ugh.

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bob_cville

> Is there a single person who said the win wasn't legit?

Not yet. However given that this special election was held due to the previous Republican candidate's operatives cheating to change the vote outcome, I at least would like to know what measures they implemented to ensure that the polling process was legitimate. Are there any electronic-only, touch screen machines in use anywhere in the district? Or is there a verifiable paper record of the vote tallies?

Were certain precincts swamped with long lines? If so did voters decide not to vote because of the lines or worse were valid voters turned away?

Were valid voters blocked from voting due their name being removed from the voter registration rolls?

Were there any measures put in place to prevent the absentee voter shenanigans the roiled the previous election?

Given a situation where it has already been demonstrated that an attempt was made to rig the previous election, it is incumbent on them to somehow provide proof that this election wasn't somehow rigged, at least more than the usual "trust us, it was valid"

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Izzy Mn(4)

More vile going on in NC on 9-11. It was agreed to suspend any votes for the day so they could attend 9-11 memorials. But Republicans stayed so they could vote while Democrats were at memorials.

Explanation at about 3:30

https://youtu.be/4gwMQkBvf_A

Talks about deplorable behavior by Republicans.

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