Unity within the Democratic party

Ann

A new Economist/YouGov poll caught my attention, because it shows only a 3 point lead by Biden over Sanders, with only a 4 point lead over Warren. Knowing this is an extensive poll that covers many topics, I decided to go into it and take a look. The first thing catching my eye is the category of "Party Unity - Democrats". Only 15% of respondents say they are more united than usual and 41% say they are more divided than usual. My guess is that's unusual for Democrats, who tend to typically be fairly united. I've linked the entire poll here.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/u4gcv1suy6/econTabReport.pdf

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Ann

The same question is asked about Republican Unity and the results are 23% say more united and 23% say more divided.

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Ann

A question is asked if one thinks Trump will win reelection. 45% say likely, 40% say unlikely. Interestingly to me, 57% of Dems say likely and 57% of Republicans say unlikely. So, it appears Dems are nervous about a Trump win and Republicans aren't very confident about a Trump win.

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Ann

Oh, how things have changed since early 2017. Only 12% now think Trump will leave office before the next election and 78% think he won't. Remember when he first took office and how many on HT thought he wouldn't even last a year and, certainly, not until the next election?

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Ann

Dems have the most favorable opinion of Warren, but just barely more favorable than Bernie and Biden.

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Ann

Interesting, among those polled who said they will vote in a Dem primary, the highest percentage said they'd consider voting for Warren in the primary. I was a little surprised to not see a Biden lead in that particular category.

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Ann

Oh, but then the next question asked "first choice" in a primary vote if held today and Biden won that one.

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Ann

On to electability. When asked if the Dem candidate, one by one, would beat or lose to Trump, respondents think every single Dem candidate will lose to Trump. In this category, though, it went along party lines with Dems and Republican showing confidence in the chances of their party's candidate.

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Ziemia(6a)

"respondents think every single Dem candidate will lose to Trump."

This is truly good news. No sarcasm.

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Ann

Most important issues are, in order, healthcare, immigration, tie for economy and SS, environment. Many others are listed but these are the top 5 in order of importance.

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Ann

I certainly get your point on that one Ziemia.

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Ann

But Ziemia, that question was the one that was answered along party lines, so Dems had high confidence that some of their candidates would beat Trump, so that isn't likely as good of news are you were thinking. But, I wouldn't worry about turn out, because I think it will be super high on both sides!

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dublinbay z6 (KS)

I think we need to look at more than one poll--maybe 4 or 5--to get a better sense of what is going on right now.

In the past few weeks I've seen several polls that indicate Biden losing favorability points and Warren nearly catching up with Biden. The growth trend would seem to be all on her side, in that case.

And there have been a couple notable polls very recently that clearly indicated any of the top 5 rated Democrats would easily beat Trump. Biden still leads the pack, but Warren and others are quite close behind.

The issues (and order) you listed are similar to those I've seen in other polls. But Dems seem pretty unified about electibility coming in first--whoever can best beat Trump!

Personally, I don't see a much division within the Dem. party, other than the usual push-pull between the left-leaning and the right-leaning elements. That doesn't particularly concern me. Plenty of time remaining for everybody to focus on a particular choice. Now, if the primaries were just around the corner, I might get nervous if no particular agreed upon choice were emerging.

The point is that the Dems. have a dozen good choices to pick from--an "embarassment of riches," as they say. I'm confident the best one will emerge after the sifting process is complete.

Kate

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Annie Deighnaugh

My guess is that's unusual for Democrats, who tend to typically be fairly united.

I disagree. First of all, it's quite understandable given there's a slate of 22 potential candidates running. Secondly, even going back to Will Rogers, the dems have never been known to be particularly united...when asked about his politics, he replied: I don't belong to any organized political party....I'm a democrat.

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Ziemia(6a)

Dems united? Not really. Just something the DNC works hard to portray. The Big Tent is big because of needing room for all the factions.

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gyr_falcon(Sunset 23)

I was thinking the same thing as Annie and Ziemia--Democrats are not united so much as having multiple facets. While it is not always orderly to not be in perfect lockstep, I think that is a strength, not a weakness (for the most part). There are lots of different ideas, and the plusses and minuses get debated freely. But the lack of cohesion does affect the strength of the force.


The republicans are so one voice orientated, that bad ideas get supported even though they are disliked by many of their own group. Disagreement is strongly discouraged, and actively punished by the collective. They get the strength of the one voice, but they also frequently get things wrong, sometimes with disastrous results.

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woodnymph2_gw

What's wrong with being in the party of the Big Tent? I see it as a positive not a negative.

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vgkg Z-7 Va(Z-7)

With 20 presidential candidates the real demo unity will not arrive until their convention convenes next summer.

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chase_gw

From the out side looking in, I've always seen the push pull within the Democratic party between the more moderate faction and the more progressive faction....that is nothing new. They have never moved in lockstep.

On the other hand it seems to me that the Republican party has moved to a lockstep mentality and even those who were so adamant about fiscal responsibility have just stepped in line with Trump.

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Ann

Kate, I agree the more polls compared, the better picture painted. It's rare that I delve as far into an individual poll as I did this one this morning, so it was kind of interesting to explore many of the individual questions as I did today.

I agree that Warren has a good (or even very good) trend line right now.

About electability, yes, this poll and others clearly show that beating Trump is the number one priority for Dems.

I don't agree with you about the embarrassment of riches, but that's certainly not a surprise for either of us, I'd guess.

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Ann

"Just something the DNC works hard to portray."

Agreed the DNC does work hard to portray an image of unity.

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Carro

Ann, thanks for posting this poll. The Democrat tent is getting smaller and smaller by the day. If you are not lurching left, along with the Squad face of the party, you are not "woke" enough. None of the 2020 Dem leaders are moderate now. None.

Any moderate doesn't stand a chance of getting the nomination, as of right now.


I blame Pelosi. Bottom line is that she's let her party go rogue and has allowed the "by any means necessary" resistance to dictate their rhetoric and actions.


Did you ever think you'd see anti-Semitism be normalized in the Dem party? It's beyond retrievable at this point.

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Ann

I do think the Dem candidate group size is, logically, down to the leaders now - maybe 3-5 or so. I just don't think the others will be able to catch up.

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Ann

Carro, I agree, there is significant pressure on all of them to lean pretty darn far left.

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Carro

Ann, I agree there won't be a breakthrough candidate. There will be no Trump. Will there be a clear leader or will the primary be close?

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chase_gw

"There will be no Trump."


Thank the Lord Jesus !

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cattyles

Praise the Lord and pass the brisket!

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Ann

Carro, I sure don't know. I think it's possible it will remain a 3 person race through the primary (Biden, Bernie, Warren).

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barncatz

Thinking Netanyanhu is an authoritarian who is bad for Israel's long term success is not the same as being anti-semitic, no matter how much the second coming of God (which Jewish people don't believe in ) prattles about it.

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lurker111

Funny that I would get this email...lol

We Need Your Input.
Who Can Beat this President?
With our community of 4 million Democratic activists, this is the largest straw poll yet.
We must speak up and direct the conversation. This is our party.
We've integrated the poll with the voter file to ensure that the results accurately reflect eligible primary voters.
Thank you for being a dedicated part of our movement. We will win in 2020 because of activists like you.

Hahaha!

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barncatz

That IS funny.

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elvis

...no matter how much the second coming of God (which Jewish people don't believe in ) prattles about it.

No matter who "prattles about the second coming of God"?

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cattyles

I give up. Who?

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elvis

"The second coming of God" is a person, barncatz? Huh. I thought that phrase was in reference to an event. What do I know.

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