My take on the shutdown
In so many ways I just don't understand the politics of this event, and I largely suspect this is Trump shooting from the hip. I just don't see a win for Republicans on this shutdown, and the President has largely backed the Republicans into a corner that they can't get out of politically.
I can't find a Democratic loss in this and I have tried, because I would have done things differently. I personally think the Democrats should have walked in and immediately ended the shutdown and claimed they were governing responsibly.
If the Democrats hold fast until the president caves and signs the deal they have, the great negotiator will be seen as someone who couldn't even get something that he invested so much effort in.
If the President holds fast until the Democrats cave then he has to prove it was worth it.
If the Democrats negotiate some benefit for the shutdown, such as DACA, they will score a double victory.
If the Republicans break with the President they will get slaughtered as the reason for not having a wall.
If the Republicans stick with the President they will get slaughtered for not governing.
Through all of this the Democrats can keep reminding Americans that this wasn't a Democratic deal, this was a Republican President rejecting a Republican bill.
I suspect Democrats believe the shutdown is going to crush the Republicans, which I agree with. Eventually, they are going to give Trump the 5 billion for the wall in a deal that will help them save a bit of political face (like a DACA deal). In the 18 months between the shutdown and the next election cycle ramping up, nothing is going to happen on the wall. The only areas that can see any construction progress in the next 18 months are areas where the existing barricades are the most efficient.
Democrats are going to hammer that issue again and again, they are going to point out that the emergency that shut the government down was to spend time planning to maybe one day start wall construction. They are going to bask in the pointlessness of this shutdown and the Republicans can't win that issue, because they physically can't get enough wall built in this budget cycle to make this shutdown work in their favor.