I cannot wait for the answers on this. I've been standing around my Methley Plum wondering exactly the same thing because it looks exactly like those in your photo. Strangely, my other 3 plum varieties haven't swelled at all. These buds sure look tender to me...and we have a temperature of 7 degrees predicted here in TN- the lowest of the whole darn winter!!!! Are we doomed?

Well,..hard to say, I've seen mine go through frost but minus 12-13 degree Celsius is pretty severe! It depends too, how long they are exposed to. As long as buds are closed they can take quiet a bit,..just guessing here, I don't see much luck with these temp.

cityman, i hope we are not doomed.

I really want to see and smell the

flowers.

I've only once had a freeze out at that stage. Usually it happens after bloom when the flowers are much more tender. But I'd say 7-9F is awfully cold at that stage. The MSU illustrated frost damage page would indicate ~90% kill. It could go either way. My guess would be severe damage, 90% or more bud loss.

If you have a couple days 32-40F before the severe cold the buds can harden off a bit.

MSU illustrated frost damage charts:

http://orchardkeeper.com/pdf/IllustratedSpringFrostDamageThresholds.pdf

Where are you that they are that far along? I would say you're doomed with 9F... but who knows...forecasts can be wrong. Maybe throw something over it if you can. Blankets...

Im in central Arkansas. Zone 7B. I might actually put a blanket over it!

Tibean, you have no idea how similar our buds and our concerns and hopes are! Mine look absolutely identical to your photos, so I appreciate you posting. Fingers crossed, but it doesn't look good. I had been so happy about the mild winter up to this point. This was almost certainly going to by my first plums from my tree, which makes it all the more painful. In addition to my methley plum, I also have a LOT of figs that I didn't protect and was just starting to relax about since it hasn't been below 10 here all year. Now I'm likely to have figs killed to the ground and this plum ruined for this year.

zone4fruit- You are correct to be surprised that our (well, at least my) plums are so far along. Mine usually aren't. What is even stranger is that I have a gold, a Santa Rosa, a Bruce, and a Burbank that are the same age and planted within a few feet of this methley with same amount of sun, etc. Yet they are not showing one tiny bit of bud swell- dormant as they have been all winter. usually all these bloom at close to same time, so I'm really mystified at the stage of bud growth on my methley.

btw...I am in northern middle TN.

You trying sitting outside in 7 degree cold, and you will see how the tree would welcome a blanket or some row cover. A light bulb wouldn't even be a dumb idea if you can easily rig one up. Plus it would give the neighbors something to talk about on a chilly night. You could sleep with visions of sugar plums dancing in your head.

Northwoodswis

LOL ^ ..God i hate winter.

Threw a blanket and a tarp over over my 1 season pluot. Its a 4 in 1 and all four are as pictured above. I also put a light bulb inside. I may string some old fashion christmas lights on them tomorrow.

Van, Tulsa, 7a

I'm always a little perplexed at how covering trees helps, if it does, without a heat source (I know northwoods did suggest a bulb and vanman said he used one, and that I can understand. But many people just put blankets over trees/plants. Its especially hard for me to understand how putting a blanket over a tree or plant without a heat source can help if the cover doesn't go all the way to the ground, which it almost certainly won't do in larger trees. I assume that if you cover something all the way down to the ground, the idea is that the heat from the ground will be insulated inside the blanket and provide a few extra degrees of protection-which can make a big difference. With a person, there is body heat so a blanket makes sense. But I've never understood how just throwing a blanket over a tree and having it hanging up in the tree helps anything. Why would it be even 1/10th of a degree warmer under the blanket. And I don't think its about windchille (ie blanket blocking wind) because most of what I've read says windchill has no bearing on fruit damage temps. In fact, I've seen it argued many times that a breeze is better than still-air cold. So if anyone can explain the value in just covering a tree without a heat source- which I know many people do- I'd sure be interested. Just curious.

I have no idea..i've always thought if it hung to the ground, the heat of the ground/maybe the tree itself (if it was a sunny day) may help...may...obviously a heat source...anything, would really help. I know from using unheated greenhouses, that even a thin couple mil sheet of plastic can keep you warmer then outside temps. Even a 5 gallon bucket of tap water would release a bunch of heat..especially if the water freezes in the process.

a cover will help in a frost event - keeping frost off tender buds/flowers. A freeze event is different. you will need insulation AND some type of heat source. Heat source can be difficult to create this early with single digit temps. You will spend a lot of time and effort raising temps only to still loss buds/flowers as temps below 20F will still kill tender buds. This is why i do not care for mild winters. Mild winters always put fruit growers in this situations were we can only pray for success. It's out of your control when trees bloom in winter months. However, this time of year, I start preparing for spring freezes by using 6mm plastic with a 250w heat lamp (same set up used to keep small animals warm) at the bottom of the tree. It's even better to install a simple 1/2 - 3/4 inch PVC frame around the tree take the weight of the plastic. With no frame, you will damage buds when adding or removing the plastic. Frames are hard on large trees but can be somewhat easy to install on a dwarf tree. But again, in my opinion, an adaqate heat source w/ a cover is mandatory when temps fall below 20F-25F.

Well, All hope appears to be lost for me. I can only hope you, tlbean, didn't get the same revised forecast that we did here. The predicted low just went from 7 degrees to -2 degrees!!! I could cry! And talk about counting chickens before they hatch....I had already begun thinking about how many more figs I was going to get this year since it has been a mild enough winter to prevent them from freezing back to the ground. In the years that my figs don't have to start all over from the roots up but are able to start from the previous years wood, I get WAY WAY more figs and, strange as it may sound, they taste better! really. ANd of course this also means I almost certainly won't be getting my first methley plum either. Dang, this can be such a frustrating hobby....and the late spring frosts that above posters lamented about are still to come. Grrrr. Of course, its one thing if my little hobby trees don't make fruit, but I can't imagine what it must feel like to be a commercial grower and know that all your income for a whole year is lost. There is a commercial peach orchard (300 hundred trees, so not a giant one but big for my area) 3 miles from me and the owner told me the other day that in the last 12 years he had 3 years without a single peach, 1 year he lost 75% of his crop and one year he lost 25%. Imagine how he and other commercial growers must feel when they see weather forecasts that look as ominous as mine is looking now. Definitely makes my one little plum tree problem seem sooo petty. But DARNIT, it is still killing me! ha. Hope others fair better.....good luck tlbean, etc.

thecityman:

Man that is a brutal forecast for Nashville. The weather channel says -8F Wed morning. NOAA has it at 5F.

Methley is a very low chill variety. So it's been in spring, let's go, mode for probably two months. My very low chill peaches have been blooming for two weeks. They have no chance.

Hope you get 5 not -8 and your other fruits will probably pull through. You are getting several days of cold before Wed morning. That's a help. Some water will be pulled out of the buds during that time making them more freeze tolerant.

Showing a high of 3F here Weds...lows could be anywhere from -10F to -15F...some areas in cold spots will be -20F to -30F. Looks like a radiational type of event where cold/clear skies/calm winds allow the temp to plummet in lower areas.

The problem is that the extended range looks brutal ..at least right through the end of the month. We need a zonal flow (west to east) to kick back in.

Holly molly Frank is minus 30F actual temp or with windchill? It has been a historically cold February here for us too. We are seeing colder temps now that we would normally only see in January. I sure hope things turn around in the next few weeks.

I just put the christmas lights on, put the blanket and the tarp back on. Turned on the lights. The temp inside was 70 and outside was 43. Turn the lights off and came back an hour later and the temp inside and out were the same at 42. The blanket and tarp are not air tight (my tarp wasn't big enough). Take for what it worth.

Van

Glenn-

Actual temps. Last year the town just east of here had -29F and quite a few days in the -20Fs...its just the location (low lying frost pockets where cold air easily collects). Around here i'm in the river valley, but its very open and i think we get some drainage with that. The higher ground (bluffs) always stay warmer in those situations (calm winds/clear nites).

Tonight I might get bud damage with the low expected to be -13F It made it to -10 last night. The last super cold day but more coming. I heard that in my area it will stay cold till April. I would be fine if we would not dip past -9. Oh well, i should still get some fruit. But who knows? Next year the christmas lights are going on the trees.

-16F right now, if it's only -2 in TN you will be lucky!

NOAA wiil report that officially as 8F!

Oh well there go the fruit buds! Yours and mine!

Well I'm not going to feel bad about grafting this year.

Drew, I guess your trees are dormant. There is some hope for you (and me) that fruit bud could survive.

Tlbean and Cityman are not as fortunate because their fruit buds are at a more advanced stage.

We have -7 F last night. With windchill, it was -30. My trees are totally dormant. Some newly planted trees are buried almost totally under snow which is good news.

I put a blanket over my plum tree and a trash bag over the blanket.

The weight of the blanket was kind of making the tree limbs tilt to the side.

Gosh i hate this. Im at work right now and im hoping that not only will the buds be ok, but i hope the branches dont break under the blanket!

UGHhhhhh

Interesting how zones only means so much. Here in Central Maryland, in the same zone as Nashville, 6B/7A, however since the pattern has been colder in the East Coast than even just a bit west in TN, we don't have even the slightest sign of anything swelling, not even the silver Maples.

The only signs of spring I see here are some daffodils poking up a couple inches. But they start doing that in December most years, however.

Interesting weather pattern.

It's getting pretty late into February for this kind of extended cold outbreak with this type of intensity for those of us in the mid Atlantic and South.

well, it only got to 20 degrees last night. I covered my plum and when i went out there the blanket and trash bag were taken off by something........hmmm

This is amazing. I looked a few weeks back at the historical data for my location (Zone 5) and so far the lowest it got this year was one day of -8. We are expecting -11 tomorrow night maybe, but this has so far been the lowest of the year and the lowest its expected to get. I find it interesting how others in zones above mine are getting lows equal or above ours and seeing weather that has been far worse than ours. I'm lucky that my trees are still dormant and haven't even begun to wake up and looking at the next 30 days shouldn't start waking up. Not sure if thats good or bad, but I'll take some fruit late instead of no fruit at all.

To hairmetal4ever & others, I should make it clear that-at least for me- only one tree of mine, a methley plum- has got bud swell to the level of the tlbean2004 photo. Every single one of my other fruit trees- including 4 other Japanese plum varieties the same age and just feet away, are in full dormancy still. So worst case scenario I'll loose just that one crop. However, since this thread started I've become way, way more concerned about my outdoor figs! I have 16 fig trees (mostly chigago hardy, brown turkey, and celeste) out there with no protection. While they are hardy varieties, I'm pretty sure they'll be killed back to the ground. BTW... predictions for me are now at 2 degrees above, so maybe I'll get lucky. Thanks for all your interest and concern!

We never get into the negatives digits here. Thank God!

In my situation the Great Lakes play a big role, and they never warmed up
from last winter. Plus the way the jet stream was, we were at the worst location
with the jet stream south of us, many places you guys were south of the jet
stream, we were north. The lakes may have pulled it down too. Zone 6 experienced lows to -27F
here. Of course the zone rating should have never been changed in the first
place. And it is unusual and I hope get's back to normal. Again we got to -16
and it was for about 4 hours, hoping that some buds survived.

Ok, so after the bad weather we had last week, my plum buds have a bit of brown on them. Does this mean they are dead? I dont think the temps got below 15 degrees.....

I think it did more harm then good by keeping under the cover for too long,...pushing flowering ahead.

what is that thing around the trunk of the tree?

I need something like that to keep rodents from chewing at the bark of my peach tree!

Anyways, i dont know if my buds will open or not. I guess i will have to just wait and see.

tlbean2004, I have really been wondering if your buds were killed. You may recall (or see it above) that after you posted that thread I told you that I had one tree that looked almost exactly like yours and I was also worried about the coming cold. As it turned out, we got down to about 5 degrees here (I read that you got to around 15). You also mentioned seeing some browning, can you tell for sure yet how bad it hurt your tree? As for me, I think it killed every single brown bud-fruit or leaf. All the small green buds on my tree are now brown and when I pull them open they seem to be brown inside as well!!!! I'm so mad, but at least it was my only tree that was starting to bud and therefore (hopefully) the only one to be damaged,

By the way, I can't tell 100%, but it looks like the thing around the trunk in vanman23's photo above is exactly what I use, and if so it works great, is very cheap, and easy to find and work with. What I use is 6-8 inch black, flexible, corrugated pipe. It comes in big rolls (they are big and bulky due to the pipe being 6-8 inches wide but its still fairly cheap and light to move) and can be purchased at Lowes and other similar places. It also usually has small 1/2 inch or so holes randomly every few inches, which allows breathing but not mice, etc. You can cut off a 2-3 foot section for your tree (another advantage of this is you can select and cut off different lengths for different trees). Then for really small whips you can just slide it around the whip and lower it to the ground. For larger trees, you can simply take the 2-3 foot section you cut off the main roll, and cut it length wise. You can then pull it apart enough to open it up and place it around the trunk of the tree. It will automatically pull itself back together and maintain plenty of strength to keep critters out. hope this helps you or others.

Hi cityman sorry to respond so late. I was looking at my plum tree this evening and it turns out that they are opening up even more!! So it appears as if they were not damaged. Im so glad. Im not sure all of them will open up or not. I will take a pic tomorrow and post it.