It's snowing here right now. Isn't that headed to KS in the next few days?

We were 75 on the 19th and 20th. That's just typical west Texas weather. The difference is we won't be damaged by cold this winter. The last two yrs it's been a total freeze out of fruit in April/May. I'm still not sure if any of 80 trees planted Jan 2014 are still viable going forward after April 2014 freeze.

We have 4 inches of snow and the temps are heading toward single digits. Well Friday and Saturday are warm, high is 38F Saturday, but starts to drop each day after that. By a week from Saturday the high is 13 and the low 3F. Currently at 12:35pm the temp is 28F.
So the Midwest is fine, sorry to hear about your warm temps.

"It's snowing here right now. Isn't that headed to KS in the next few days?"

I wish. The NWS has 50+ degree weather for pretty much all of the next week. Given what we've had in the last week, it's too warm for Jan. weather here.

"So the Midwest is fine, sorry to hear about your warm temps."

That's funny Drew :-) Around here we think of MI not part of the Midwest, but the far north!

You do have it made though, being close to the Great Lakes to moderate spring frosts, which offers lots of protection. There is a reason that region is called the fruit belt.

That's funny Drew :-) Around here we think of MI not part of the Midwest, but the far north!

I know it's not very accurate we should just be the north! MN and WI too are rather northish. MI goes farther south.
I'm tucked away in the Southeast bottom corner. Canada is actually south of us! Well some of it. Detroit is south from here, and south of Detroit is Windsor. A little section of Canada, often neglected by Canada too. I consider it part of Detroit, more than part of Canada. It's not, but it's right there across the Detroit river.
Yeah Windsor on a little pennisula south of Detroit.
The Great Lakes froze early, but then it got warm and they melted. Frozen now, so that helps keep it consistant. And as you say protects the region.
http://mapq.st/1zzWqRa

So what kind of temps are you have there? Above 45F?

"So what kind of temps are you have there? Above 45F?"

In the 50s or 60s for the last week.

Cooler today. Tomorrow 47F, Sat. 54F, Sun. 57F, Mon. 49F, Tues. 58F, Wed. 53F.

Keep in mind the ave. high temps here in Jan. are generally 40F.

I thought the same thing olpea. It has been really warm here in southwest missouri. I dug up two nanking cherry seedlings 4 days ago, potted them,and brought them indoors. They already have green leaves poking out the end of the buds. It got so cold here last winter that my peaches didn't have one single bloom on them. I am really hoping for some fruit this summer

I was concerned as well when we were in the low 50's last weekend. Blueberries are showing signs of awakening as are the currants and gooseberries, and it looked like some of the peach buds were swelling just slightly. However, lows all week have been in the 20's, and daytime temps in 30's. I was also elated that the blackberries looked unharmed after some near zero temps. Our temps next week are even lower.

Olpea,

Yeah that is high we have not been past 40F since September. Temp is still 28F here, and is going to drop soon with nightfall. Lows next week look scary here, near zero. 10 days ago it was -4F Hope that remains the coldest temp this year! Lows are around 3F next week here.
Yeah I would be concerned that is just way too warm!
I would ask all our Canadian friends to point the fans south! Southwest please, plenty cold here!

The western warmth is making its way pretty far north now. Sunny and 50F here today, in the prairies 500 km (300 miles) north of the US border. Five more days of 40-45F in the forecast, then cooling. Average high this time of year is 18 F.

Don't think it will be enough to break dormancy around here. I'll just call it a nice January thaw.

I thought the same thing olpea. It has been really warm here in southwest missouri. I dug up two nanking cherry seedlings 4 days ago, potted them,and brought them indoors. They already have green leaves poking out the end of the buds. It got so cold here last winter that my peaches didn't have one single bloom on them. I am really hoping for some fruit this summer

Greetings from a way too warm north central part of the state Olpea. I hear you loud and clear. Recently, I looked through the high and low temp data from the NWS observation station here very close to town. The readings go back 15 years and showed that these temps in the mid 40-50 degree range we've been having for going on weeks now are way out of the norm. I too am concerned for my trees and all trees in the area for that matter. Did you ever figure out how to use The NWS NowData on the web for your area? E-mail the town nearest to you and I might be able to get our local NWS observer to tell me which specific station is closest to you. If nothing else, you can get kind of close just to see how far off the normal temps have been in your general vicinity though not the temps for your specific location.

The peaches shouldn't be vulnerable yet- probably haven't reached their chill requirement. It's Feb. warm spells that are more killer (dormancy breaks more easily then) and your temps aren't too warm. If things return to "normal" in a week I bet you'll be fine.

I got your link Michael in the email you sent. It's such a good link to past information, I'm posting it below.

Anyone can use the link. To find a location, click on climate locations tab and use the arrows. I had to use the arrows a couple times to get over to the Kansas City data.

Once you have the location you want, the "Observed Weather" and "Local Data/Records" will give all kinds of past data for the area.

In my area, the average highs for Jan. are 38F and the average lows are 20F. Been a lot warmer than that for this
year.

Hman,
It does look like there is some cooler weather on the horizon. Perhaps spring weather will be the real question, as it generally is.

Here is a link that might be useful: NWS data

I've looked back into the high temps since the cold spell ended and this warm snap began. We have had a few high 40s but that's it, mostly it's been low 40s which is normal, I'm not to worried now about the high temps, just more danged drought. The wettest / snowiest times are ahead though, February - April so there is hope still.

Im not excited about it at all. I actually had the frost go out on a couple mud holes in the yard already.

I remember last year in mid jan we had 60 and 3-4 days later I was -15f or so. It did it again in feb to -12 I think. If we can gradually cool back down without a cold snap I think it will help.

Olpea,
I am concerned as well but farming in Kansas is always like this. When I was still planting row crops I would invest thousands and sweat every time it hailed, rained, dried up, wind blew etc.. Farming in Kansas is for gamblers if we were not risk takers we would not last the first year. I wish for a nice apple/peach/pear crop but my blackberries are my crop that's never failed me the last 20 years. The blackberries have been in the family at least a hundred years as I got my plants from my Grandpa. They bloom in late May or June and ripen July 15 - August 15. I hope this year treats you well Olpea!

Clark,

You're right, farming is a gamble.

I'm over on the extreme eastern part of the state, which is really more like the MO climate.

Someone once told me the KSU extension claimed peaches completely fail once out of every ten years in KS.

For central MO, supposedly peaches only have a full crop 4 out of every ten years, a partial crop 3 out of 10, and a complete crop loss 3 out of 10.

I looked at some of the historical winter weather data in the link in my last post.

You might be interested to know that in the last 125 years, there have been roughly 5 events which would have killed peach trees in KS (I defined any winter temps below -17F as a year which would have killed peach trees, even though there is of course some variability of how much cold peaches can tolerate and still survive.) On average a peach orchard will be killed by cold about every 25 years.

In terms of crop failure, I looked at years were temps dropped below -13F. There were about 25 years, out of 125, in which temps were below -13F, or one out of five years.

I know a grower on the KS side who has been raising peaches commercially for 14 years. He's had two complete crop losses in that time (one failure from spring frost, and one from winter cold).

Apples of course are much more reliable.

This year I signed up for crop insurance. It doesn't pay very well for a crop disaster, but it's better than nothing, and the premiums aren't too bad.

If I asked for crop insurance out here on fruit trees they would probably look at me like I had 3 eyes! Im positive it would be the first time they heard of it here. I wont because I don't have near the orchard you have and Im not dependent on it for income. Interesting idea though. How do they figure the compensation on a loss? Im familiar with how they do wheat or corn, but have no idea about fruits.

I talked with the UNL fruit specialist one time and he though SW to SC Nebraska should be ideal for tart cherry production, and he had been trying to talk someone into doing a commercial sized orchard 10 ac or more. I didn't think about crop insurance, but it may make the difference and make that a possibility. Now you have me thinking!

Jag,

The crop insurance is through the USDA (your local FSA office).

The last farm bill (2014) upgraded the crop insurance for tree crops. Because of that, they extended the deadline to sign up, but the deadline has passed for this year 2015.

The new crop insurance lets you "buy up" coverage, up to 65% of expected yield and up to 100% of market price. Keep in mind their "market price" is wholesale (read cheap) not retail. Also their "expected yield" is very low (like 130 bu/acre).

Still the insurance is something. I posted a link to the fact sheet below.

Keep in mind orcharding in the Midwest is a tough business. I started my full time orchard 4 years ago, invested tons of money and time without any return. For the money my wife and I have invested in the orchard, we would have done better just to have left it in the stock market, and that wouldn't have been any work! Then there's the opportunity cost of the work I could have done and gotten paid for.

I do hope at some point to make some money back, but the real reason I do it is because I love it. The air, the sunshine, the joy of producing delicious and nutritious food (not only for myself, but for others). That's why I started and hope to be able to continue.

Here is a link that might be useful: NAP program

Olpea,
On this site I've grown reliance peaches for nearly twenty years. I lose about 40% of my crops due to frosts in the spring and twice to cold winters. I have 4 of the trees currently. I removed a couple that got in the way of a pond I built. I really only have experience with reliance for that long. One of my original trees is still alive and produces well. I started growing other varieties about 5 years ago so they are still not tested 100% yet. I had limbs broke out due to wind damage last year and I lost 80% of my crop to the cold winter. My other fruit produced better than ever. Most all of my peaches came from one reliance peach tree that is grown beside the others. I'm at a loss as to what the difference was.

Very interesting. Im sure if I had a bunch of losses that they would adjust the farm average down the same as they would do with grain crops.

Lots of things that wouldn't work the same as grain. I can see issues with how they prove your actual yields.

If you have a production history, you can keep track of your yields, or you can have a farm survey, or you can accept FSA numbers.

I have a friend who uses a farm survey for his peaches. He pays for someone (an FSA rep) who comes out and estimates the yield every year. He has to pay mileage and some other fees. He said it amounts to a couple hundred dollars for the farm visit, but easier than doing all the recording.

Clark,

Although I don't have Reliance anymore, I do like the idea of hardier peaches. Because of last winter, I'm going to try to plant more hardy varieties, as long as they taste good.

This covers the first week of Feb. The signal has been very strong of cold air returning in that time frame.

{{gwi:2118366}}

It has been unseasonably warm here in Madison, Wisconsin, as well. Daytime highs are around 35 to 40 degrees F. However, it freezes at night, so the lakes stay frozen. We have very little snow cover, about an inch or two. It has not been a good year for XC skiing, or local snowmobiling. Our blueberry shrubs remain dormant, and if we get some cold weather in February, they should do fine. I have yet to fire up the snowblower, all the shoveling has been done by hand.

Howdy OLPEA, Jag sent me this, you might remember 2012, perhaps we're off to another one of those years.

Here is a link that might be useful: 2012 heat

It's like I'm on another world. It has been cold here and now a week from today the low is -5. I'm freezing here! Starting again to worry about fruit buds and blackberry canes making it. Hopefully the predictions will change I don't like the negative numbers!

"you might remember 2012, perhaps we're off to another one of those years."

I hope not Michael. That was a year not easily forgotten. Not only was it very hot, it was also windy and it never rained all summer, until late Aug. I remember when you stepped outside it was like standing in front of a blow dryer.

Supposed to be 63F here Wed. The record for this area on that day is 65F.

This post was edited by olpea on Sun, Jan 25, 15 at 10:44

I'm really starting to get worried we will be at 70 degrees Fahrenheit tommorow and 60's for several more days. We are getting high winds today and got a light rain last night. My trees are going to think its spring. Before long I may think its spring. Drew if you need a vacation Kansas might be the place for a warm non crowded getaway this year.

I looked up the weather in Topeka KS (I lived there when very young) and you folks have nothing to worry about yet if accuweather has it anywhere close to right.

First of all, until the chill requirements are met dormancy is pretty much stable and susceptibility to weather induced budding is gradual . Secondly, I don't see a pattern of sustained warmth nearly adequate to set off early budding based on my experience here.

The last time we had first growth in March here it was set up by an entire week of temps in the '70's during the day and low '60's or high '50s at night- basically warm spring weather. It created the earliest spring in memory, but somehow we avoided lethal frosts. A few years later with a warm spell a bit later we weren't so lucky.

Short bursts of warm weather are a normal condition in our winters here- often enough to create a full thaw, but in 25 years watching we've never had spring in Jan or Feb. I believe that solid weeks of very warm temps in that period must have occurred several times.

In March you can begin the high anxiety mind set of a hen mother. There will be plenty of time for that. Extreme cold is all you generally need to worry about in mid-winter in your zone, I think.

I guess so Clark! Well maybe you should come here! Not now in the summer. You guys can come up to th island for a week or weekend. It's a little frosty right now on the swimming dock!

Sounds great Drew! Looks like it would be a great spot in the summer.