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triciae_gw

September Existing Homes Sales

16 years ago

Just released this afternoon:

"Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. housing industry plunged deeper into recession last month as the August credit-market collapse made it harder for buyers to obtain loans.

Sales of previously owned homes fell 8 percent in September to an annual rate of 5.04 million, the fewest since records began in 1999, the National Association of Realtors said in Washington. The decline was almost twice as steep as economists forecast, while the median price dropped the most in almost a year."

See link for full article.

/tricia

Here is a link that might be useful: Bloomberg: Existing Home Sales Tumble 8%

Comments (29)

  • 16 years ago

    Triciae: "Just released this afternoon"

    I greatly appreciate your continued research and posting of housing-related articles Tricia, but you were a little late with this one. Not to be too nitpicky, but this news was actually released at exactly 10:00 a.m. this morning and was the reason (along with MER stating that they lost 2.3 billion last qtr due to subprime losses) that the DJIA dropped almost 200 points shortly thereafter. However, the market recovered and closed with a loss of less than one point. (Although the NASDAQ was down 24.)

  • 16 years ago

    So sorry...had a dentist appointment. I'll try to schedule my appointments a bit more appropriately in the future.

    /t

    Geez, this place is just a bundle of laughs these days.

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  • 16 years ago

    Tricia, with the loss of so many homes due to the wildfires in CA, *could* the stats change as so many people will need to rebuild/purchase? There are some things economists cannot forsee. What will comps of a new house be based on if a complete neighborhood has been destroyed,such as Rancho Bernardo?

    Would this 'loosen up' the lending institutions?

  • 16 years ago

    "So sorry...had a dentist appointment. I'll try to schedule my appointments a bit more appropriately in the future. Geez, this place is just a bundle of laughs these days. "

    I'm sorry, Tricia. I did not mean to denigrate your posting of this article. I even began my comment by stating that I greatly appreciate that fact that you link many housing-related newsworthy articles here. I just made one nitpicky comment about the fact that the news came out in the morning and not in the afternoon.

    I did not mean to offend you by doing so.

  • 16 years ago

    Patty_cakes,

    DH & I were discussing this last night. I haven't made a post since I seem to be on the Forum's hit list recently & figured my post would be seen as uncaring about those who've suffered such tragedy.

    San Diego had an excess of inventory. Now, there's about 1,500 fewer residences. I've seen several interviews where people who've lost their homes have stated that they would buy something now to live in while they rebuilt the home they've lost. Is 1,500 homes enough to move the market? Not sure? But, your supply/demand equation has changed, no doubt.

    Construction workers who've been struggling should see improved conditions as people start rebuilding. I 'think' that would include your SIL? Isn't he a contractor?

    As far as the comps go...

    There could be a short-term backlash & people will not want to live in a fire prone area but I think that scenario is doubtful. San Diego's a wonderful place to live & will continue to be so even with the fire risk.

    We've got a regular poster on the Forum who owned property that burned in the Oakland fire. Hopefully, she'll see this thread & pitch in. She has an interesting story.

    Are you still safe? Home yet? I've been thinking of you. My friends in Mission Viego are OK.

    /tricia

  • 16 years ago

    bethesdamadman,

    It's OK. I broke my jaw last fall & it's been an ordeal. I had to have a bone transplant. Haven't been able to eat anything besides "mush" for almost a year. I'm doing great & in the reconstruction process now. But, today's appointment left me swollen, numb, in pain, & extraordinary cranky!

    I receive these articles via bank feed, didn't check earlier in the day, & I haven't followed the markets today due to above.

    Friends? :)

    /tricia

  • 16 years ago

    Best wishes on a speedy recovery, Triciae.

  • 16 years ago

    Triciae: Friends? :)

    Absolutely! And let me echo xamsx's sentiments and also wish you a speedy recovery. As someone who has spent much too much time in hospitals over the past year, I can definitely understand being in pain and being cranky! :-)

  • 16 years ago

    patty_cakes, I can only speak to what I have experienced after major hurricanes living in Florida. A fire is like a Category 4/5 hurricane in the sense of the amount of destruction it does. After Andrew and Charlie we saw the cost of building materials and labor nearly double. Home prices after Andrew increased some too as people decided to buy rather then rebuild. The recovery process is long and can take 5 or more years before things are even get back to normal. In the case where whole communities are wiped out, many people just collected their insurance claim and moved on selling the land to developers.

    While this will certainly spur economic activity in real estate and construction industries, its a horrible way for that to happen. I really feel for those people, having lived through Andrew I know what it is like to come back and see everything that meant anything to you destroyed. What was amazing though, was that for a very short moment in time we were all equal. The sense of community that came after the disaster was intense and it really showed the better side of human nature. Sure we had our looters and gougers, but your neighbors became your family. Its a humbling experience.

    My prayers go out to all those affected by this disaster. I also hope that all of us who are watching this disaster unfold on TV are motivated enough to at least make a contribution to an organization that will help these people. My preference is the American Red Cross, which are the best people to have around after a disaster. They take up the short commings of FEMA.

  • 16 years ago

    "I haven't made a post since I seem to be on the Forum's hit list recently & figured my post would be seen as uncaring about those who've suffered such tragedy."

    OMG, you are truly an amazingly egotistical person. Just because someone does not agree with you or points out inconsistencies in your views, you are being targeted? If you don't like your POV being questioned, why in the world would you start the thread with such controversial statement and title (Americas to Live in Slums)? I thought what you started was great and much more interesting then telling someone how to read a HUD form or what color walls they should have to sell their home. Its obvious you are taking yourself far too seriously, lighten up. Life is too short to care what a bunch of people you don't even know on a message board think.

    Cheers.

  • 16 years ago

    Tricia,there are those who will always resent someone knowing more than themselves. Look at their posts as what they are, just *their* opinion. I respect all your knowledge, even the negative, because reality *is* reality.

    As for my SIL, his company did the electrical for the majority of homes in the first fire, and is aware it could bring in new business, but that won't happen until after insurance investigations.

    I'm still in OC, and was planning on leaving this morning, but both sides of the I-5 were closed.DD wanted me to stay until things have calmed down here, and the air quality is better in SD.

    Tricia,I feel your pain! No broken jaw,but dental surgery. I was scheduled for another surgery today, but it was cancelled on Monday. Now I get to 'look forward'to it again.LOL Just take those meds you were given. My dentist always gives me a prescription for valium and I always tear it up.That much of a wuss I ain't!LOL

    Kitchenshock, my son lives in Wilmington, NC and stayed in his apartment during Andrew and Charlie! I kept telling him to leave,but he said he had 'shuttered' the windows, and did other things to make it safe. He said it 'wasn't so bad'~ha!

    People do tend to come together during times of disaster,but it's too quickly forgetten what has brought them together. The day to day routine, which sometimes includes being rude to your fellow man returns, especially in large cities such as SD. 9/11 brought a spirit of patriotism short lived. People are not like 'folks' during our parents generation. The 'me' generation is the standard in this day and age. Sorry if I sound negative, but it just seems to be the norm.

    Thanks to everyone for your prayers.

  • 16 years ago

    9/11 patriotism short-lived? Perhaps in the land of Liberals (california)...Not anywhere near NYC...Not to anyone who lost a relative or friend...Not to anyone who watched everything unfold from their HOME, not tv...Boy, that could have been one of the dumbest things i have read yet...

  • 16 years ago

    Am I the only one bothered by the "Chicken
    Little" wording of the Bloomberg piece? It's not a market correction or a downturn, it's a deepening recession. There were not problems with particular high-risk segment of the loan industry that was relatively contained and doesn't affect the majority of borrowers, there was a collapse of the credit market.

  • 16 years ago

    What's gotten into everyone? Yeah, it's swell to take a break from wall color threads but the comments are getting nasty and highly personal. Whether one acknowledges it or not, some of those zingers being tossed out there hurt. I get the "can't stand the heat ...", but this board has always been a nice refuge from the meaness seen in other boards. For crying out loud, most people found their way here because they share a love of flowers, and nature, and other happy nurturing stuff. Is it the drought? An oversupply of Fire Signs...aries, leo etc?

    I can't find the Rules of Engagement for this board so I cribbed from another board...maybe they'll remind us to take a step back. And, by the way, I'm no princess either. I've sniped and a few weeks ago, I took an unholy delight in messing with a poster who ticked me off. (remember, brokerblogger?)If Sister Mary Frances were still alive, I'd be writing the following 300 times on the blackboard as penance.

    Respect the board and its posters and moderators. Do not post inflammatory messages just to upset people. You can disagree with something that someone types, but disagree with the content of the message. There is no need to insult another poster. If you disagree with a post, disagree respectfully and refrain from finding fault or insulting with the poster on a personal level. Racial, ethnic, sexual and/or gender based insults slurs or derisive comments will not be tolerated.

  • 16 years ago

    "Kitchenshock, my son lives in Wilmington, NC and stayed in his apartment during Andrew and Charlie! I kept telling him to leave,but he said he had 'shuttered' the windows, and did other things to make it safe. He said it 'wasn't so bad'~ha! "

    I don't know if you're trying to be funny or serious. I don't think Andrew ever went near Wilmington, NC. and Charlie was a tropical depression by the time it got there. I am sure it wasn't so bad for him. I wouldn't even close my shutters for a TS much less a TD. Tell him to come to Florida and go through even a CAT 3 and he'll learn to evacuate. Those two storms messed up a lot of peoples lives and really are not something to joke about, just like the fires in CA right now. Just to put things in perspective, the fires in California would need to burn for another 4 weeks to come close to the devastation of those two hurricanes and they would need to burn for another 8 weeks to come close to Katrina.

    In the months to come, let's hope the good people of California and America don't forget these Californians that have lost everything. The tough part actually comes many months from now when the story is way off the front page and everyone else not affected has moved on with their lives.

  • 16 years ago

    Kitchenshock, I completely agree. Debating topics, disagreeing on issues and pointing out inconsistencies in another's arguement does not equal "targeting" a poster. Really if all a person wants is for everyone to agree with them and be on their side they shouldn't post controversial topics and throw out absolutes.

    If you can't handle it, don't dish it out.

    C

  • 16 years ago

    9/11 patriotism short-lived? Perhaps in the land of Liberals (california)
    Yikes, now I may be called unpatriotic because I live in CA.
    I can confirm for you that patriotism is alive and well in CA. Pattycakes, I can't believe SD is that different than up here patriotism was not short lived here.

  • 16 years ago

    Yep, my husband went through chemo in 2004. His first treatment finished 4 hours before Charlie hit. We've blanked out those 6 months--no chemo, no hurricanes, just two of us supporting each other. And friends in the neighborhood who supported us and those that I supported after the hurricane. Elderly neighbors had not prepared. I had made meatloaves and some other stuff (chicken probably--when I'm stressed, I cook). So I fed the neighborhood and dear husband recovered for the next treatment. He is in remission, but we stay alert during hurricane season and start breathing when no hurricanes hit this area. We have to be selfish--he stresses out and he is one is who is always calm and helping others. Funny when hard times allow one or the other to rise to the occasion. He's fine now but the cancers can't be cured. Just put off--forever I hope!

    My heart goes out to these people. Its beyond difficult, but earthly goods are just that. If the family is safe, life is ok. Recovery is much, much more difficult. The pain cannot be adequately described.

  • 16 years ago

    "9/11 patriotism short-lived? Perhaps in the land of Liberals (california)...Not anywhere near NYC"

    You just have to inject your politics, don't you.

    BTW: NYC (the city) is arguably more liberal than CA (the state - most of the burned areas are the conservative parts of CA).

    And: Given how things are going in the USA, I'd wager a guess that "conservative" will become a bigger slur than "liberal" in the near future. LOL!

  • 16 years ago

    Qdognj, anyone who refers to another persons post as dumb, is very narrow-minded and can't/doesn't care about respecting another's opinion.Listen up qdognj,unless you were in SD,CA a year or more after the incident, you have NO opinion. I specifically mentioned 'SD and other large cities'. You've taken my post out of context and made it read what YOU wanted it to read. Nowhere did I mention NYC, as I would assume,that would be the one city where the memory would be alive every day of everyones life.

    And Californians, please inform me WHERE,or maybe when, I can *see* all this patriotism. What it ISN'T is having a sticker of the American flag/I LOVE AMERICA/BORN IN THE USA/or the PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN displayed on the bumper of your car. It isn't about having a huge flagpole with a huge'faded' flag, put up AFTER 9/11, blowing in the breeze of your front yard. Where were all these symbols of patriotism BEFORE 9/11? Were we not Americans,proud of our country,before that fatal day? Did we catch a glimpse of it during the Gulf war? You can have your opinions as to the 'whys' we're at war, why we should/shouldn't be at war, what our president is/isn't doing. This is all a part of your 'personal' patriotism.

    Our men and women have not volunteered to give up their lives only to find when they come home, there is another type of war known as indifference to your fellow man. Afterall, what is war if not an indifference to another's way of thinking and the lack of respect *for* that thinking.

    As for the liberal/conservative remarks,I don't give a rats a** about your political preference. Just be caring, considerate, empathetic, consciencious, kind, and RESPECTFUL to those you know as well as those you do not.

    "when a whole nation is roaring patriotism at the top of its voice, I am fain to explore the cleanness of its hands and the purity of its heart." Ralph Waldo Emerson

  • 16 years ago

    Awwwwwww, come on guys...can't we get back to bashing lazy agents for not working hard enough? Isn't THAT why housing is really slipping...

  • 16 years ago

    as a person with NO preference for political parties, i will apologize for making a generalization about liberals and california, i am truly sorry.

    The idea that anyone "forgets" about 9/11 is upsetting, and anyone living near NYC,Wash DC, etc will likley never forget that day..
    And i didn't take your comment out of context..You ended your sentence about SD , then made a comment about 9/11 short-lived. 2 seperate sentences.Now perhaps you intended to connect the 2.

  • 16 years ago

    I only opened this thread because it looked like Tricia posted an article, and from the number of responses I thought it might be a really interesting article. Does anyone have opinions about what this means? "The drop was almost twice as steep as economists forecast" - does that mean the market is reaching the 'bottom' more quickly, or that the 'bottom' is going to be far lower than they've been thinking? Do economists forecast with the dartboard method? Where I am, people are taking down their 'for sale' signs and replacing them with 'for rent' rather than dropping their prices. That's what happened back in the late eighties here. It was a bottom of sorts. People were renting their homes to pay the mortgage because they'd have needed to do short sales otherwise. The market kind of wallowed for several years before picking up again.

    Or, should I stick to the topic of Tricia? Very sorry, Tricia about the jaw. I couldn't handle mush for that long, seriously. I had a friend go through that and it was truly awful. Also sorry about your amazing ego - birth defect, or something acquired later? :)

  • 16 years ago

    An economist with the Northern Trust Bank in Chicago has said that the new housing market should start recovery in 2010; existing home sales later, even 2012.

    I can't recall where I read this, but another banker in another part of the country said that banks had been expecting to get 60% of the post-repairs) value of a house they were selling (forclosures); now it's 50%. My late FIL bought a very nice home in a nice section of Chicago for 30% in the Depression.

  • 16 years ago

    "9/11 patriotism short-lived? Perhaps in the land of Liberals (california)...Not anywhere near NYC"

    You just have to inject your politics, don't you.

    can't we get back to bashing lazy agents for not working hard enough?

    Well, this morning I heard a commercial on the radio by a real estate agent somehow tying hiring him to selling your house during Halloween, and he included the statement "WhatÂs scarier than having a NY Senator in the White House?"

    And regardless of my personal opinion on that subject, I thought, "HavenÂt you just alienated a significant portion of your potential market?" Why would inject your personal opinion of such a highly-charged subject into a sales pitch for my business?

  • 16 years ago

    There are so many variables that go into an economic forecast that make predicting the weather look easy. Like weathermen, they usually get part of the picture right but never have a model so complete that you can watch it unfold before your eyes.

    Until the capital markets gain confidence that the banking industry understands how to access risk in the mortgages they underwrite, you are not going to see a recovery. I think we are still in the discovery mode right now, so we have at least another year for the big picture to be understood and the issues addressed and fixed. Remember MBS's(mortgage backed securities) were viewed as a relatively safe play and often used as hedges against more risky business. That belief has been proven wrong and now the yield is deemed too low for the risk. This is one of the reasons the Fed has cut discount rate, to help improve the yield to attract investment. So far it hasn't worked. Fixing this issue is going to be complicated and may involve giving investors a better yields and requiring borrowers to put more money in the game. This means that fewer people are going to qualify for loans and the interest rates are going to be higher. Therefore, the cure may make things worse before they get better.

    Normally a bottom comes when there is complete capitulation and the prospect for the future looks its worse. In the residential real estate market that capitulation is hard to come by since people can simply not sell or rent. However, even if people were to start dropping their prices substantially, I don't know if that would spark a recovery since the money is not there to finance the purchases.

    As for when the recovery will occur, write all the years from now until 2015 on a board and throw a dart with your eyes closed. Where it lands is as good of a prediction as these economist's predictions. Just like a weatherman can tell you that global warming will make more Hurricanes, they still can't tell you when they will occur or where they will strike.

    Keep in mind that if we fall into a recession, as some are forecasting, all bets are off. During the last recession we used home equity to dig us out. Now that that is gone we would need business to step up and make investments. My feeling is that foreign investment is going to be the savior coming from all the places that depend on us to buy their products. Anyone speak Arabic or Chinese?

  • 16 years ago

    Question: I asked my realtor what houses are closing for and she said avg. 97% of listing price. Wow. So I said well that hardly seems like a buyer's market. She said well no it is a buyers market. How so? Because 97% might not have been what the house started at. Now one I haven't seen that many price drops on the MLS. 2 - and here is my question finally:) how do you find out what the original price was? She said it was hard to dig out.
    So.....that statistic that people are always saying you should find out when your looking - is essentially worthless? Because its always 97% here apparently.

  • 16 years ago

    Prices have a long way to go in many areas before average folks will be able to qualify; not many loose loans available to get them in the game. If interest rates go up the problem will only exacerbate. I guess they could FHA, but I don't see them getting a $500K FHA for a "starter" home without a big salary - and who wants a starter home when you have a big salary?

  • 16 years ago

    Mary1000 inventory is usually the "tell" between buyer, seller or neutral markets - seller market is 5 months or less inventory, neutral 5-7 months and buyer market 7+ months. These numbers are not written in stone and may vary by a month. The national average is now 10+ months. YIKES! Sometimes a market is a buyer market but the prices sell close to list because they are priced correctly to begin with. If 97% of list is what houses sell for in your area, just be sure to look closer to what you are comfortable paying. I have no idea why your agent cannot get the original list price - that seems rather odd.