I like the heatpump with propane. Having the propane is nice for the gas oven/range and incase its extra cold as a backup. Straight electric might me the same price or cheaper than propane but that all depends how expensive the propane is and the electric is. I would go with quote 4 because its the most reasonable price. I"m assuming you don't need a 120,000 btu furnace, so you might want to ask contractor to size that down. You definitely have the right idea by going with a heatpump. Having the propane is worth it since you already have the tank and piping into the house in my opinion.

Welcome back April. I am glad to see you have done some more homework. I own Carrier Infinity equipment, so I know it will keep you comfortable in the cold Michigan winters. I have heard mixed opinions about Lennox, but I have no direct experience. I am going assume Contractor #3 is a competent installer and he has sized your equipment properly. I am glad to see he is offering the Carrier rebates. Here are my comments for the Contractor #3 options: Furnaces: Option 1: I would not recommend an 80% AFUE furnace for your winters. Option 2: This is the two-stage Infinity furnace. It is a good furace and will work with the Infinity controller. Option 3: For $300 more you get a three-stage furnace. This would be my recommendation with the Infinity controller. Air Conditioning: Option 1: This is a single stage compressor. I think 4 tons is oversized for your climate. Option 2: This is the two-stage compressor. This is the AC to get if you have humid summers. This AC will work with the Infinity controller. I believe this AC with the 58MVC furnace will qualify for the $1000 Carrier rebate. Option 3: This AC in my opinion is over kill for your climate. It is not worth the money. Ask contractor #3 how much a 10 Carrier labor warranty would cost. You should consider getting this warranty for peace of mind for the next 10 years. I would also want to upgrade to a 4 inch media filter. This should not be a costly upgrade assuming you have to room to fit it. You should also qualify for the $500 tax credit if you haven't already used it.

The biggest problem with HVAC zone systems is knowing when to choose it as a solution and when not to. Some HVAC companies it's about "sell, sell, sell" whether or not it works... there's more money in "sell, sell, sell" --- when it's only about money? So does the comment above mean I do it for free? No. If you think that you are reading things that aren't there. New construction? best to choose separate systems 9 times out of 10. In order for a zone system to work, you have to know what you are doing. Most HVAC companies staff (the techs they send you) are 20-30 year olds. How much practical experience could they possible have? It's best for HVAC zone systems to be an elegant solution. A HVAC zone system is a tool in the tool bag. Not all homes are suitable for zone systems. Some homes there is no other way, and in some cases complications to those problems will make an HVAC zone system design possibly more prone to problems. You have a problem now, do you want more problems. These decisions among others are decided "in person" --- so considering that becareful what information you decide upon from the internet. Just because it's here doesn't necessarily mean it's true. That said: Depending on equipment level chosen, how many different floors you have in your structure, how much room you have available... will all be factors that make you decide one way or another. From there it's in your best interest to pick a contractor that is skilled: especially when it comes to HVAC zone systems. (there's a lot of garbage out there.) (click to enlarge if necessary) I service the Katy, Texas area.

I'm disappointed that what had at first seemed a very balanced comment was followed by what seems to be misinformation and misdirection. People buy ground source heat pump equipment because they want to and can afford it. Or decide they need to in their locations. They're hugely more expensive than alternatives, which is why they're still not very common. "When’s the payback on a Tesla? People still choose to buy them for reasons other than the ‘bottom line’." Not a comparable. A false analogy. "I would not choose natural gas or propane for reasons relating to the environment, safety, IAQ & paying for yet another utility hookup for an energy source that might not even be used for months on end during the year." What effect having a gas furnace has on indoor air quality. Another hookup? Most people prefer gas cooking appliances and besides, the OP is talking about an existing home, he either has gas service or he doesn't. "Rather than spending perhaps tens of thousands of dollars on a Solar Array, I would sooner invest that same money, hopefully less, in a ground loop for a Geothermal system." Sure you would, that's the business you're in. The ground source heat pump market is not growing as expected by those in the industry, which suggests that your opinion isn't widely held or easily sellable. In many parts of the country, solar panels can have a quick payback. Not so ground source heat pumps. "I often hear about Solar Panels when geothermal is mentioned, as an alternative way to save money by creating energy." In a place like Texas, where electricity is cheap (other than during cold weather crises as they just experienced) there's likely no payback from a solar panel installation. People do it as a personal statement, call it for environmental or other personal reasons. Like buying the Tesla, not a financial decision. An HVAC system blows warm air when it's cold, cool air when it's hot. It's one of those things people don't care about - either it works or it doesn't work. Spending extra money for an exotic system doesn't equate to extra payback when the home is sold. Neither owners, nor visitors, nor people passing by, nor anyone else, concern themselves with what's doing the work. It's equipment that doesn't produce an experience for someone in the house if it's working. In the US, there are vast areas where electricity is cheap. It will remain so for some time. People don't spend money today to potentially save money 10 years out when market conditions may or may be different. I suspect you could build a house with mahogany or teak framing. Or you could paint the framing bright colors. Why bother, you can spend less money and effort and get something else that will do the same job. "We almost never use setbacks at our home - even when going on vacation for weeks on end with no one home, our geothermal just runs." You're combining two different things to produce confusion. Thermostats that have a setback feature ALL are set up to provide lower overnight temperatures to have more comfortable sleeping conditions and then a recovery in the morning before wakeup time. As sleep specialists recommend. That in demand comfort features isn't possible with ground source heat pumps because the warm up period from a setback is too slow to be convenient to use, absent triggering a secondary heating source (like a furnace) to help. THAT'S why you don't "believe" in setbacks with a heat pump - they don't work. Turning down a thermostat during heating season when the home will be unoccupied is not a "setback" as that word is most commonly used. It's done to save money, why heat a vacant house? No setback thermostat is needed, even a dumb 50 year old analog thermostat can be turned down.