You should definitely be pricing with just heat pump. I live in NC which probably is a bit colder in the winter. We get down to the teens but only 15 nights a year maybe. Our winter average low is about 30. Under 10 degrees is definitely a news story. I have 5000 sq ft. I'm looking at my NG bill of $30. I have dual fuel and seer 16 heat pumps. Last winter was very cold and I spent about $700 with $200 being gas. This winter is going to be $120 in gas. My electric rates are similar to yours without the first 1000 discount. What is my point? Your gas usage will likely be $100 a year. Even if that were replaced with all heating strips, you'd be saving $200 a year or so. Since it would probable be 80% heat pump still, the dual fuel is only saving you $40 a year. So a $2500 furnace to save $40 a year seems a little crazy (on dollars alone). Turns out for me, it is probably worth it but only marginally so. I have a 90% (which you should be able to do as mine is basement with horizontal PVC exhaust). It probably saves $60-$70 on an average year. Probably cost $2000 (new house - I can't remember). What is that a 30 year payback (or never if you count interest or NG rates increase)? You do get some flexibility and you can setback at will with dual fuel. That is worth something.

morehelpkim I suggest you go to the Carrier Residential site and read up on this furnace. It is 95% eff sgl stg furnace with a conventional blower motor. I would say it is comparable to the XR95 Trane model. Warranty on heat exchanger is 20 yrs rather than lifetime which probably is not a big deal. I personally would ask for an upgrade price to Carrier's Performance 95 mdl which is two stg and has a var speed blower motor. IMO Here is a link that might be useful: Carrier Gas Furnaces

Thank you for the prompt reviews! Looks like Proposal #1 is the winner so far. Mike ��" the attic fan made a huge difference in second floor comfort. One of the best things I did. Glad your experience was the same. I will look into the 2 stage AC. I will not run the fan or put in an extra return for the humidity/temperature change issues. I will just continue to use my dehumidifiers. They do take care of the issue. I am going to plan on replacing the line set ��" it is easy to get to. What do you think about the drain pan/wet switch that will shut off the AC if there is a leak? Is it going to go off over nothing like a smoke detector I used to have and drive me nuts? Or is it a good idea? I might not have been clear about one thing. Both contractors told me to keep the old air filter set up (Spaceguard High Efficiency). It is the old Aprilaire humidifier that Contractor #1 said replace due to age/parts and Contractor #2 said keep it, parts are not going to be a problem and the only part that goes bad is the solenoid. Keep the old one or buy a new one? Contractor #1 is going to look into the Carrier early failure of heat exchangers settlement. It might only apply to the secondary heat exchanger. The primary one failed on my furnace. I meet with the last contractor tomorrow. I hope to have all the bids by the end of the week. My goal is all new equipment before I have to turn on the heat!

I agree, With a 2 stage system, there won't be much difference between the 2. I would suggest the NATE dealer if for no other reason than they take the time to be educated and really, the installing dealer makes a big difference in the satisfactory outcome. They will have more resources to fall back on if they run into a question on your job, and they will also generally have a more thorough understanding of the little things about unit start up and such that can make a big difference in the long term performance of the system. This is not to say that the other sources you have mentioned may not be fine. It is just my opinion that dealers who care enough to take continuing classes and training will probably care enough to satisfy you better. As to heatpump vs AC. The advantage of a good heatpump with a low ambient control is that you can run it for heat when the outdoor temperature is around 30 or higher. A good Thermostat will automatically switch your system to furnace from heatpump based on the outdoor temperature. You are insightful enough to realize that is it usually either cool and mild, or really cold where you are. That is why the heatpump is such a good fit.