You should definitely be pricing with just heat pump. I live in NC which probably is a bit colder in the winter. We get down to the teens but only 15 nights a year maybe. Our winter average low is about 30. Under 10 degrees is definitely a news story. I have 5000 sq ft. I'm looking at my NG bill of $30. I have dual fuel and seer 16 heat pumps. Last winter was very cold and I spent about $700 with $200 being gas. This winter is going to be $120 in gas. My electric rates are similar to yours without the first 1000 discount. What is my point? Your gas usage will likely be $100 a year. Even if that were replaced with all heating strips, you'd be saving $200 a year or so. Since it would probable be 80% heat pump still, the dual fuel is only saving you $40 a year. So a $2500 furnace to save $40 a year seems a little crazy (on dollars alone). Turns out for me, it is probably worth it but only marginally so. I have a 90% (which you should be able to do as mine is basement with horizontal PVC exhaust). It probably saves $60-$70 on an average year. Probably cost $2000 (new house - I can't remember). What is that a 30 year payback (or never if you count interest or NG rates increase)? You do get some flexibility and you can setback at will with dual fuel. That is worth something.

No offense, but your post doesn't make sense. What you need to know is what your home's heat loss is (manual J). Once you know what that number (BTUs) is, then you know what size unit (input) x % efficiency, will yield the number of BTUs required. Having that number, you can then research various brands, determine what size you need, then check their specs to see how many CFMs of air are delivered. Then, you will know whether your duct system is too large or small. Actually, duct layout is probably more important. If you need X BTUs, it doesn't make any difference if it's a single or double stage unit. The ductwork is sized for the maximum (CFM) output. Also, a single stage unit does not run in low fire; it runs at maximum output of heat and CFMs. I went from an oversized (125,000 BTU input) unit to a 90,000 BTU unit (modulating furnace). The duct system wasn't the greatest; had some minor changes. Probably could have used a 75,000 unit, but needed the larger blower for a/c. After mornng recovery, the unit runs at a very low speed (you can't hear it) and the air barely trickles out of the registers. While I thought I would miss the hot blast of heat, the new unit is a world of difference (more comfort). The house is uniformly warm with little temperature fluctuation. Gotta love it. What is your location, and the size (input) and age of your present unit? V

I was able to get info on the existing furnace from the data plate. It's a Carrier Model 58ss140-BC, Series 110, 167,000 BTU. The data plate said the blower is "157", whatever that means. The motor spec was 1/2 hp. Mfg date 1982. That's all I found on the furnace. I found next to nothing on the a/c. The data plates outside are gone. I could see where it was but there was just rivets. A single, long rectangular unit outside. Like I said, vintage 1974, from the builder. According to my mother, the quoting contractors guessed that the system was 4 or 5 tons. I don't know anything about who said what. Turns out the Lennox/Costco guy was the only one to quote an upgraded unit. He also quoted: Option #3B. $9,185. Platinum Package. A/C XC17-048 and 2 stage gas furnace SL280UH135 with variable speed and I-Comfort Communicating Controller. I'm having a hard time getting her to look at the Am Std quote because they didn't quote her an upgraded unit option and their basic units were only about $1,000 cheaper than the upgraded Lennox units. ($9,145 vs $7,945). About the house, I tried to describe it above. Built 1974. 3200 sq ft. and two stories. Attached garage. Full sun exposure--the property is not shaded. Brick exterior with not a whole heck of a lot of insulation. (I remember my parents being mad that the builder gipped them on the insulation.) High quality house though, expensive neighborhood. Stick framed over a full basement. Attic with pitched shingle roof. Colonial. Original single pane wood windows with storms windows, maybe a tad drafty. After being widowed with 4 kids in 1978, she never had the money to remodel anything and everything is pretty much 1974. Anything else you want to know about the house, please ask. This is all I could think of.

I may get dinged for saying this, but they are both reputable manufacturers and the efficiency ratings are comparable. I believe you would benefit yourself by selecting by the service provider you trust more than the manufacturer's equipment. The primary difference between any two installations is the service provider. If virtually anyone's equipment is properly installed it will operate well for around 15 years (ASHRAE estimate). If it is installed by a contractor that is either unqualified or just doesn't care, you will have problems from now on. Ask around and find someone you can trust to install it properly and back their work. You will be glad you did. I have written an article on this very subject. I think it's pretty good information for anyone about to replace heating and air equipment. Here it is. Air and Energy Solutions. Again, Trane and Carrier are both reputable and either piece of equipment, if installed properly will serve you well.