"myk1, the price of corn is not set by the farmer based on his costs to produce, it is an openly traded commodity and the price reflects supply vs demand." A few years ago the costs of harvesting, transporting and storage were too high for what the price corn was bringing. The corn was dumped in fields and even along side of roads. If it's not worth harvesting there is nobody holding a gun to the farmer's heads making them take a loss. No other business in this country is a forced charity like that. They dump to cut supply which drives up prices. Now that there is more demand with ethanol there is no need to dump or till under. If anything the extra corn being grown to jump on the bandwagon is lowering prices compared to where it should be (but that is offset this year because of the floods). I'm all for farmers getting paid a good income. Not that I believe the poverty stricken farmer stories but with the amount of financial investment and labor it takes to farm they deserve to be very well off. There are a lot of bad farmers/businessmen who wait until it's too late but the smart ones are thinking ahead. Doesn't what you say contradict that it's the ethanol causing prices to increase? If the cost of fuel going up doesn't make the cost of corn go up then the cost of corn going up shouldn't make the cost of beef go up. This doesn't effect me and fruit growing. I learned a long time ago that store bought weren't a good substitute for homegrown, I don't buy fruit if I have a bad year (the same goes for corn on the cob). I'm planting more apples (now it's up to 4 more instead of 3) because I want apples not because I need them. The only way I'll notice the price increases is if I get extras and sell them instead of give them away. I have a bunch of filters on my email plus my address changed. I was getting those last year and I've always got them at my spam address.

>>If the price of gold were to react in sync with the conditions of *those* times, we'd be at $2,000 for an ounce. If it were in sync with THESE times, it could go far higher. >> Exactly. Which in itself tells you something, from a historical context. It's fear that drives small investors into it, whereas government purchases, for example, such as India's, are for specific reasons of diversification. My diversification into commodities, as a small investor, would not have the same goal and timing as a large investor. Im currently having a similar discussion on another finance forum, with someone who recommended "liquidating everything and buying silver, as its sure to go up with gold." I certainly agree that commodities can play a part in a diversified portfolio. I dont agree with taking that to the extreme, as some do - not you, bkelton, but some folks do veer off in strange directions, such as the the guy who started the recent thread about putting a lien on his own home! The trouble with anonymous forums is that the smart folks know to take the advice for what it can be worth sometimes valuable, very often not. But many are not quite so savvy, and when it comes to investing, that is very dangerous. For example, at yet a third forum I participate in, one person posted the following: "one client was a mall owner. He told me if I was ever to invest, invest in three things...FOOD..everyone eats...CARS..of the future...(he told me this in the 80's and he said.. only if people knew whats out there)..and CLOTHES..textiles...everyone is wearing something on their back..." Others began to comment how smart that was, and such sound advice that made a lot of sense. Well, yes, it sounds folksy and wise, but consider what might have happened if youd invested in some of the following: 1) Lucky grocery store stock: at $35 in 2002, it fell to $18 in less than a year. In Sept 2005 when Albertsons (which bought Lucky in a failed attempt to grow larger) broke up the stores into regions and sold the CA stores to SuperValu, the stock price was $21. As of today, 11/16/2009, the stock price of SuperValu languishes at less than $17. 2) GM and Chrysler bondholders well, we know how that turned out! 3) Federated/Macys staggering under LBO debt, theyve closed several chains but the stock price is in the dumps, and their bonds are now rated barely above junk level. Obviously, these fit those folksy parameters, but wouldnt have made any money unless you were sophisticated enough to short them. I really try to be careful about what I say in these public forums because so many people are not educated investors. They are looking for the quick and easy, set and forget investing mantra that doesnt exist. I think you and I are having a very interesting and thoughtful discussion, but weve probably lost most of the audience along the way. And no, I would never confuse soft sciences with hard sciences, LOL. However, I'm not sure why you think 'dark matter' is not a controversial subject, since it's one of the main reasons for the Hadron Collider being built at a cost of 330M Euros and counting. Like string theory, they are fascinating theories that have yet to be confirmed, but that doesnt mean they wont be proven true. The dichotomy between Einsteins theory of relativity and quantum physics has yet to be resolved, and until it is, our understanding of how the universe works remains woefully incomplete.

Here's a story from that time period that is also worth reading. History continues to repeat itself! The Limits of Madness by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. 12-01-03 For the first time in many years, I was speechless. I didnât know what to say. It was Thursday evening, on Thanksgiving. My wife Elisabeth, my son Anthony, plus other family members stood around the dinner table, gazing at me patiently, waiting for me to open my mouth. But I was mute. My problem was simple: Elisabeth had asked each of us to say a few words about what weâre thankful for. But by the time my turn came around, all the more important things in life �" health, happiness, and love �" had already been covered by the others. Little did they realize, during those moments of silence, that a torrent of thoughts was flashing through my mind, most of which I will share with you now ⦠THE TRUE PESSIMISTS Some people on Wall Street seem to think Iâm a die-hard pessimist �" that I have nothing to be thankful for. They call me a âperma-bearâ for ânever recommending stocksâ or âChicken Littleâ for âpredicting one disaster after another.â Well, I have news for them: Iâve been recommending stocks throughout the bear market and throughout the recent recovery. The main difference is my stocks went up; most of theirs went down and are STILL way down from their peaks. As to the disasters �" the dot.com bust, tech wreck, bankruptcy crisis, accounting scandals, and broker scandals �" guess what! They happened. But thatâs all water under the bridge. Right now ⦠LOOK AT WHAT THE âOPTIMISTSâ ARE SAYING! The so-called âoptimistsâ say Fed Chairman Greenspan will continue holding down interest rates, and Congress will continue spending us into prosperity. They say no one has to worry about �" or deal with �" the ballooning federal budget deficit, the record trade deficit, or the huge debt burden of millions of consumers. They think the sinking dollar is âno big deal,â and we should âjust let it fall.â They donât seem to give a darn that your interest income has been reduced to a pittance. Nor do they seem to care very much about the havoc inflation can wreck on your retirement. They tell you ânot to worryâ about the threat to your Medicare or the danger to your Social Security �" let alone to the other retirement benefits that were promised to you. Worst of all, they seem to think thereâs no significant connection between the shaky pillars of our economy and the equally shaky pillars of our society �" falling educational standards, deteriorating public health, broken families. And they say âMartin Weiss is a pessimistâ?! Give me a break! WHY I AM REALLY A DIE-HARD OPTIMIST A few seconds had gone by, and I could smell the Thanksgiving dinner spread out before me on the table, still steaming from the oven. Anthony looked at me expecting a profound �" or humorous �" statement. But I kept my words to myself and pursued my thoughts in silence ⦠I am an optimist because I love my country. Yes, I see trouble ahead, but I disagree vehemently with the idea that our society is going down the tubes. All of the trends we are witnessing today �" fiscal irresponsibility, massive debt build-ups, and social malaise �" are part of a single, growth-at-any-cost megatrend. But theyâre coming to a head. And when they do, we will confront them. We will resolve them. And we will move on to better and safer times. Admittedly, we are half mad, always pushing ourselves to extremes, to the limits of our technological and economic capacity. This week, for example, the U.S. Commerce Department announced that the economy spurted forward at a breakneck speed of 8.2% per year �" a phenomenon largely driven by government tax cuts and spending. Sounds great, right? But at the very same time, Moodyâs, one of the worldâs leading credit rating services, announced that, if our government continues cutting taxes and spending without restraint, the United States of America could lose its triple-a credit rating! Thatâs not good. Not even close. THE LIMITS TO OUR GOVERNMENTâS MADNESS Fact is we are NOT on the right path. But there is a LIMIT to how far we can go down this path, and, sooner or later, we WILL reach that limit. Thatâs when we will rise to the occasion, make the sacrifices, and move on. Take the budget deficit and inflation, for example. In other lands and in previous times, deficits and inflation could run amuck, almost without limitation. Kings or queens �" presidents or prime ministers �" had almost unlimited power to temporarily inflate their economies. They could print paper money to their heartâs content. They could destroy their currency, drive millions of citizens into abject poverty, invite wars of ruin ⦠even threaten the world. Youâve probably heard the stories about the German hyperinflation during the Weimar Republic, before Adolph Hitler rose to power. Thatâs when it took three TRILLION German realmarks to buy just one U.S. dollar. Thatâs when their paper money was so utterly devalued people needed wheelbarrows to cart their cash around. Once, a man parked his wheelbarrow of money in front of a store while he shopped. When he returned, he was shocked to discover that it had been stolen. More shocking, however, was the fact that all the money bundles were left behind, stacked neatly on the ground. Even the thief knew that the wheelbarrow had more value than the worthless bank notes. Plus, last week, I told you about the currency destruction that I personally experienced in Brazil as a young boy �" and how, over the years, their money was devalued by a factor of one quadrillion (a thousand trillion) to one. These are vital lessons from history we must learn, and we seem doomed to learn them the hard way: Our government today is running up its debt at a rapid pace, just like the previous governments of Brazil and pre-Nazi Germany. Our leaders seem willing to sacrifice our strong dollar in order to keep the people happy and stay alive politically, much like the leaders did back then. But, as I also told you last week, the United States is not Brazil. Nor is it Weimar Germany. Indeed, there is one, all-important, structural difference that separates those episodes of hyperinflation from the United States of today: THE DEBT MARKET Unlike Brazil and Weimar Germany, we have a huge, powerful, fully developed debt market. They didnât. A debt market is where investors buy and sell government bonds, corporate bonds, mortgages, bank loans, and other debts �" much like investors buy and sell stocks. As in any market, when sellers are more numerous or aggressive, prices go down. When buyers have the upper hand, prices go up. You probably know this already. But bear with me. You may not be aware of its ultimate implications. The primary hub of our huge debt market is downtown Manhattan �" in the large, cavernous trading rooms of major broker-dealers and banks like Merrill Lynch, Salomon Smith Barney, J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Credit Suisse First Boston, and a few dozen others. Plus, thereâs a secondary hub �" in Chicago. Between Jackson Boulevard and Van Buren Street, the Chicago Board of Trade runs a 32,000-square-foot trading floor where, every day, they buy and sell futures contracts representing billions of dollars in U.S. government debt �" Treasury bonds and Treasury notes. About nine blocks to the north-northwest, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange operates two state-of-the-art trading floors for futures on Eurodollar deposits, Treasury bills, and other debt instruments �" also with billions of dollars changing hands each day. My point is this: The U.S. debt market is not just a small entity that exists on the periphery of our society. Itâs embodied in massive, tangible structures of concrete, marble, steel, and glass ⦠housing tens of thousands of staff ⦠and handling far more money than all the worldâs stock exchanges put together. Every day, millions of investors �" individuals, companies, cities, states, pension funds, universities, churches, and foreign countries �" buy and sell the debts in these huge markets. And every day, the market value of these debts goes up or down, depending on the supply of new debts being offered ⦠depending on the willingness of investors to buy them ⦠or ⦠contingent on the zeal of investors to get rid of their old ones. This goes far beyond the realm of money and finance. The debt market �" particularly the market for U.S. government bonds �" also serves as a de-facto POLITICAL FORUM, a place where U.S. government officials must ultimately answer for their sins. How? Itâs similar to what you saw recently in the stock market. Remember how wayward CEOs and CFOs faced their day of reckoning? Remember what happened to THEM when major accounting scandals were revealed? Investors dumped their shares like hot potatoes. Almost immediately, the companies either changed their ways or were smashed by the market forces. Heads rolled. Some CEOs were even marched off in handcuffs. A similar fate awaits wayward officials of the U.S. government �" but for them, it will be in the bond market. Sounds bad, doesnât it? But actually itâs a very good thing. Because it means there IS a LIMIT to their madness. You see, in other eras and other places, if you were unfortunate enough to lend your money to a reckless, irresponsible government, your choices were minimal: Youâd usually have to wait years until the bond matured. Then, if they paid you back in worthless money, tough luck! Unless you wanted to join a revolution, there was really nothing you could do about it. Today, thanks to the giant debt market, itâs another story entirely. FIRST, YOU DONâT HAVE TO WAIT. If youâre angry as all heck about the ballooning federal deficit, the threat of inflation, the sinking dollar, Medicare, Social Security, and anything else for that matter ⦠or ⦠if youâre worried the clowns in Washington are going to stiff you with cheaper money ⦠you donât have to just sit around and gripe about it. You can sell your bonds and get all or most of your money back at almost any time, almost any day. SECOND, POLITICS IS NO ISSUE. You donât have to hire a lobbyist. You donât have to run down to Washington to bang an angry fist on the desk of some faceless bureaucrat. You donât even have to wait for the next election. All you have to do is pick up the phone, call your broker, and utter one four-letter word: âSell!â THIRD, THE CENTER OF POWER HAS SHIFTED. Millions of people own bonds today. They own them directly in their IRAs, brokerage accounts, or trust accounts. Or they own them indirectly through a mutual fund, an insurance policy, a pension fund, or even a bank account. Any one of these investors or institutions has the power to utter that same four-letter word. SELL! This is so, so important. If you get nothing else out of my weekly âMartin on Monday,â you must get this. Because it means that ⦠THE ULTIMATE POWER TO DECIDE THE FATE OF OUR COUNTRY HAS BEEN TRANSFERRED FROM THE HANDS OF POLITICIANS INTO THE HANDS OF MILLIONS OF PEOPLE. THANK GOD! This ultimate power is more powerful than laws, even more powerful than the now-defunct gold standard which, in the old days, used to restrain how much paper money governments could print. And if youâre thinking the American people have never exercised that power, think again! THE GREAT BOND MARKET REBELLION OF 1980 The president was up for re-election, just as he is now. The economy was shaky, much as it is today. Except â¦. instead of a Republican in the White House, we had a Democrat �" Jimmy Carter. Whether Democrat or Republican, however, you would have expected him to do everything in his power to pump up the economy, make the people happy and get himself re-elected, right? Youâd think heâd do very much the same kinds of things President Bush is doing now, right? Indeed, the LAST thing youâd expect from Washington �" then or now �" is a hard right jab to the underbelly of the economy. Yet thatâs exactly what Carter gave us. He called in Fed Chairman Paul Volcker. Volcker slapped Draconian controls on virtually all forms of debt and credit created in America. They imposed stiff controls on credit cards, making it difficult for the average cash-poor American to spend a dime. They slapped controls on bank lending and business borrowing, making it hard for most companies to invest, hire, or buy raw materials. They even slapped controls on money market mutual funds, making it impossible for them to sell any more shares in existing funds. Within just a few short weeks, the economy was plunging. Gross national product nosedived. And Carterâs chances for re-election were forever doomed. Ronald Reagan became our next president. And the rest is history. âBut why,â you ask? What invisible, mysterious force could have possibly driven a Democratic president ⦠up for re-election just months away ⦠desperate to pursue his vision of the world for another four years ⦠to suddenly and deliberately sabotage an already-shaky economy? Was he possessed by aliens from outer space? Did he go bananas? Not quite. Hereâs how it happened: In 1979, the government was pumping up the economy with easy money and rampant government spending. Inflation was heating up. So, millions of people who had invested in U.S. government bonds were spooked ⦠and angry. They called their brokers. They uttered that powerful, four-letter word. And the market price of U.S. government bonds �" especially long-term bonds �" crashed. It all came to a head in February of 1980. The Soviets had invaded Afghanistan. There were rampant fears of another expensive arms race. Inflation was soaring into double digits. And the bond market crashed again. In desperation, a delegation of major New York bond dealers �" including Merrill Lynch and Salomon Brothers �" made a pilgrimage to the White House. A few hours later, a dozen powerful Wall Street men in three-piece suits sat before the president in the Oval Office. I donât know exactly what they said, but hereâs the gist: âWe have a message for you,â they declared to Carter. âThe message is from the millions of government bond investors in America and all over the world. You know �" the people who have been loaning you the money you desperately need to run this country.â âOh, really?â Carter asked solemnly. âWhat are they saying?â âTheyâre saying theyâre fed up with the governmentâs reckless spending and with the inflation thatâs destroying the value of their bonds. Theyâre saying theyâre not patsies and they wonât sit back passively when theyâre paid back with worthless dollars. Their message to you is simple: âEither you end the inflation now �" RIGHT now �" or weâre not lending you any more of our money.ââ Carter was stunned. âIs it really that bad?â âNo. Itâs worse. Now, these investors arenât just refusing to buy your new bonds. Theyâre also SELLING back the OLD bonds they bought previously ⦠dumping âem on the market in torrents. That drives their prices down and the interest rates you have to pay through the roof! Thatâs why your 30-year Treasury bond has plunged to a meager 50 cents on the dollar! Thatâs why youâre going to have to a whopping 13% interest for long-term money, over 16% for short-term money!â Carter still didnât get it. So the delegation from Wall Street explained further. âLook! Your Treasury bonds are crashing in value. No oneâs buying âem and everyoneâs selling âem. Weâre having trouble selling even a small lot of $5 million. Itâs getting so bad, bond dealers like us are getting ready to quit.â âWhy should I care?â âBecause you canât survive without us. We are the ONLY ones in the world who can sell your bonds to the public ⦠to raise the cash you need. And now WE ARE SHUTTING DOWN. Weâve lost so much money holding inventories of your Treasury bonds weâre running out of capital. We canât afford to be your dealers any more. Weâre going broke!â âBut what do you want me to do?â âYouâve got to stop the value of the dollar from falling, end the inflation �" even if that sabotages the recovery.â âBut what about the election next November?â Carter asked under his breath. âForget about next November. Unless you can convince bond investors that youâre going to end this inflation, you wonât be able to borrow the cash you need to meet government payroll next WEEK! The entire government will have to shut down �" right now.â THE NEXT BOND MARKET REBELLION Finally, Carter got the message. And thatâs when he gave Fed Chairman Volcker the green light to do whatever he needed to squash the inflation �" even if that meant squashing the economy too. Can something like this happen again? You bet it can! Fast forward two decades and three years �" to December 2003. Once again, government spending is running amuck ⦠Once again, Wall Street is beginning to worry about the consequences (remember what Moodyâs has just announced!) ⦠Once again, bond investors are getting ready to start selling ⦠And when they do, GOVERNMENT BOND PRICES WILL CRASH AGAIN! Ultimately, the president and the Fed Chairman will face the same stark choices that Carter and Volcker did in 1980: Stop the fiscal madness ⦠or ⦠shut down the government! I have no doubt they will choose the former. I am also very hopeful that it will be just the first of many steps to confront and resolve the Medicare crisis, Social Security crisis, and others that loom in the not-too-distant future. But alas, our leaders will probably not start to make the right choices until AFTER theyâre up against a major, life-threatening crisis. Thatâs the nature of the beast. They push it to the limit, and then they change their ways only under extreme duress ⦠* when inflation is already surging toward double digits ⦠* when the dollar has been beaten down to painfully low levels ⦠* when foreign investors are dumping their U.S. investments by the boatload ⦠* when sky-high interest rates are strangling the U.S. economy ⦠* And when the bond market has been beaten down so dramatically, the market mechanism itself is on the brink of shutting down. Itâs a frightening, maddening scenario. But be thankful that there is a limit to the madness. It WILL end �" and for the better. In the meantime, be sure youâre protected �" And hold onto your hat. Itâs going to be one heck of a ride. " A link that might be useful: www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-limits-of-madness-8841

Chisue - As the person in charge of our family's investments, I say yes, go ahead and buy into an index fund. With your already good diversification and common sense and understanding of the portfolio you already own, and with your children established, you are in an excellent position to do this. You do not need any detailed understanding of how the market works to invest in something as simple as an index fund. 23 years ago I invested in Vanguard's Index 500 fund and our investment has quadrupled over that time despite some pretty significant dips. I have withdrawn a small amount of money perhaps 4 - 5 times over the duration, when I didn't want to touch cash or our IRAs. The taxes and expenses on index funds are extremely low, another reason they are so attracitve. Despite all this, four times my original investment makes me happy! Just to establish my street cred. DH and I are nearing your age group and have similar concerns. Our children are grown and gone and on their own (and I do like to gift them with cash occasionally), so we are mainly involved with concerns of retirement right now, plus health issues, travel expenses, etc. We are in a fairly good situation and we have never used a financial advisor (although we've had good discussions with our accountant). I saw what "advisors" did to my mother. No thanks. Here's another thought: Money gurus recommend that senior citizens keep some money in stocks. People are living longer and need the financial growth that stocks provide, even if they don't plan to touch the money. I would suggest an Index 500 fund. This invests in the 500 largest companies in the USA, although sometimes fewer than 500 stocks are held. That really doesn't matter. Some recommend a total market index fund, which holds every domestic stock (more or less). I like the index 500, it follows the DOW (our 40 largest companies) pretty closely, so when I check CNBC I know pretty much where this particular investment is. I would do the Index 500, because it's so easy to understand. I would not invest outside the USA right now. I have held a little money in an international fund for almost 20 years, a good fund from a solid brokerage (T. Rowe Price), and it has barely doubled in that time. You can also ask the agent if a small cap index fund would be good now. It might be good to put most in the 500 and some in a small cap. But remember - these brokerage houses - Vanguard, Fidelity, etc., - are BY LAW not allowed to give you advice. They can only explain, very thoroughly, but they cannot tell you what you should do. There is no charge for your conversations with them, and they may not give you advice. Maybe a few little suggestions, but nothing that you could hold the company accountable for. Any time is the best time to invest. Get In and Stay In. Do not panic. I have always withheld a modest amount of money in case of severe crashes, so that I could buy a bit more on a serious dip, but I never bought a lot more, because I try not to market-time. One can go crazy trying to time the market! Fidelity has a great story about this. The market crashed badly in 1989-1990, just before the first Gulf War. Fidelity's people were innudated with calls from panicked customers. One of them answered a call and there was an elderly gentleman on the line. He was apparently not aware of the crash. He said that he had put a bit of money into the Fido's first mutual fund many years before and was wondering what it was worth. The callperson looked at his chart and saw how much that fund had just lost, but also, that it was up tremendously from his initial investment. "$300,000" she replied, worried about his reaction. "Yippee!" he yelled, and hung up. It's all a matter of perspective. Anyway, sorry for blathering on. How you do this: Call Vanguard from its online number and tell them that you want to invest in a mutual fund. They will transfer you to one of their agents. It is so simple. He will explain what to do and tell you that he will send you the forms. When they arrive, you fill them out, write the check and send it all in. Or you can probably do this over the phone if you have the money in a checking account, which can be linked to your Vanguard account. You can also do everything online with a linked account, but am not sure if that's possible for an initial investment. It would probably be good for you to talk to an actual human being on your first visit. These people are very accommodating! They are used to dealing with all kinds of people, of any age, any language ability, crabby, pleasant, whatever. Apologies for the lecture. I hope it helps. If you have any questions for me, I usually go to the Home Decor Conversations forum a few times a day. I might forget that I've been here. So give me a shout-out over there if necessary. And good luck. You are thinking very wisely.