I think it will be the same old thing here in AL. I think last year someone made a big deal about winter and nothing happened. We never saw any snow, and the temps were really rather warm compared to the last 5 years.

I am not worried about it, my greenhouse works whether we get rain or snow. :-)

It will be interesting to look back next spring and see if the Almanac told the truth. I have always wondered who figures all that stuff up.

Not to hopefully be considered a grinch, I hope that the North and Northwest DO get a cold cold winter. That is where winter is SUPPOSED to be cold. With the polar ice caps melting at an alarming rate and polar bears and other cold place inhabitants perishing because Alaska and other environs have gotten too warm for them to make it, and many other signs of detriment from global warming, its time or a reversal, even if its only small and only for a season or 2. I am not exactly ready to burn up in a fireball yet.
We had a really warm winter last winter, so much so that many things that usually go dormant either didn't, or only partially did, and when this summer's searing decimating heat and extreme unusual DRYNESS hit many things were almost stunted in their growth. Many things didn't grow normally this year. Supposedly El Nino is back and a wet winter is forecast for the South, that can be a good or bad thing depending. At least if we freeze, and its wet, the plants will be well hydrated and hopefully more ready for the cold than they were for the heat.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20060915/sc_space/elninoformsthrottlinghurricaneformation

Well then, try this article from last week. Maybe it will change your outlook. Seems as thou IF we get an "El Nino" things may need changed in the "Farmers Alamanac".

Man, I hope it is wrong. I want a warm winter and a receipe for polar bear steak, baby seal stew and spotted owl fritters. :')

Come on EL Nino! My luck my first attemt at growing palms in the ground and my zone 6 turns into a 5.

I think the north should get all the cold too. Better yall than me. LOL

lets hope for a reasonably warm winter 1 more time...

not only for the palms, but for oil prices as well...

Farmer's almanac is like a fortune teller. Their forecasts are accurate because they're intentionally vague. That's how they claim an accuracy of 80%.

Here's a perfect example, right from that very article:

"The cold may not be as frigid as 30 or 40 years ago, but we do expect this to be the coldest winter weÂve seen for quite a few years."

They could claim accuracy on this so many ways. There could be a week where we get record lows. There could be a few weeks or months of slightly below normal temperatures. It could be very cold in one area of the country, even though the rest of the country is close to the historical average. etc. etc. etc.

When it comes down to it, I really just can't buy the theory that the best science can't predict the weather for more than 2 or 3 days out, but somehow the farmers almanac has it all figured out.

Whatever the weather does we are going to have to deal with it, because we can't change it. Now that's a profound statement. I'll sit tight and wait and see what happens. Talk about setting the bar low - I'll consider it a mild winter if we only have a handful of nights in the single digits. I am thinking now about how I am going to protect my palms in the ground. I am working over the winter strategy and probably will make the trip to HD and Lowes this weekend to prepare. My main goal this year will be to keep the palms dry. DRY, DRY, DRY ; just like a martini.

flound,

Just a couple of points.....Farmer's Alamanac dosen't claim 80 to 85% accuracy. The article clearly stated that the people who follow it do.

Second, by your rationale, anyone who makes a weather forecast is a 'fortune teller'. Making a forecast, or prediction, as defined by the dictionary, is to "foretell on the basis of observation, experience or scientific reason". Which is exactly what the weather people do on the 6 o'clock news. Farmer's Almanac does the same using different methods, but the end result for both is exactly the same: A prediction, not a guarantee or absolute fact. The blonde bimbo on the evening news could forecast 'partly cloudy skies tomorrow.' As long as at least a few clouds roll through, even if only for an hour or two, she could also "claim accuracy".

Lastly...

"The cold may not be as frigid as 30 or 40 years ago, but we do expect this to be the coldest winter we've seen in quite a few years."

What part of that seems 'intentionally vague' to you? The sentence states rather clearly that they're expecting this winter to be colder than previous winters of the last few years. The article also stated that their prediction was for "frigid temperatures, as much as 20 degrees below seasonal norms". That doesn't sound very 'vague' to me.

No, Farmer's Almanac doesn't have it "all figured out"...no more so than NOAA or any other agency or service that tries to make weather predictions. But that shouldn't stop them, or anyone else, from trying. To simply write them off as fortune tellers is a bit unfair. Again, they're just doing the same thing as everyone else...using the data to attempt long-range forecasts.

I checked AccuWeather this morning, and they're also predicting a colder-than-average winter, at least for the Midwest and Northeast. Thanks to El Nino, wetter than normal conditions are predicted for us in the Gulf States. How much could end up as snow or other frozen precip is still a coin toss.

Here is a link that might be useful: winter outlook

I seem to remember last year they predicted a bad winter and look what happened. The coldest temperature I recorded in my yard was 13F. We had a few days in the 70s in January and a few days in the 80s in March with many 50s and 60s for highs in between. Go El Nino!

Lets not worry about it too much. I think it will be the same as last year and the year before that and maybe the year before that. LOL

What you really need to worry about now is getting the stuff to wrap up those palms up north. Thats going to be fun.......

They don't have it figured out, and niether do NOAA or any of the other weather prediction machines. None of them can predict the weather past 2 or 3 days very accurately. That's my point. They do claim 80% accuracy or at least imply it -- their exact wording is not important. As I stated in my previous post, there are many ways for them to claim that kind of accuracy.

I'm not really interested in having a religious argument with you about this. Believe what you want to believe. To me, the comparison to 'psychics' and 'fortune tellers' is right on.

One last point -- Accuweather is just awful. I followed their hurricane coverage a few years ago and in my opinion most of their 'predictions' are pure sensationalism.

Lets face it when you are making a weather prediction for a whole nation for 12 months, parts of it will be right and parts will be wrong. But you can make a generalization that overall you were right.

I sell insurance but heres my forecast for the nation for the winter 2006 - Temperatures will be near average throughout the nation with some of the northern states having a few cold fronts move through that may drop temperatures to near record lows. The southern states may see a couple Canadian air masses move in and drop temperatures below seasonal recordings. Precipitation throughout the country will be about average but locally some heavy precipitation may occur.

I'll look back in April 2007 and see how I did.

flound,

Thanks for clarifying your position. Your original post left me with the impression that anyone else who makes a long range predicition automatically is above reproach, and only Farmer's Almanac was suspect.

As you say, it's tough enough for them to get it right for the next 3 to 5 days, much less 2 to 3 months. Any long range predictions certainly need to be taken with a large grain of salt. Weather forecasting is not an exact science, probably won't be for the foreseeable future. The best they can do is make a SWAG (scientific wild-a@@ guess).

As for looking for a religious argument, no thank you. I don't care for that either and honestly don't even know where you got that from. My only point is that your very approach to this is also your 'fail-safe': If they get it wrong, it's a case of "See, I told you so"....but if they get it right, all you have to do is take a step back and say "Well, even fortune tellers and psychics get it right at least some of the time". By the same token, I could use the very same argument, but in reverse, to defend my position. We can both agree that any forecast beyond a few days is being 'out on a limb'. As stated in my previous post, a prediction is just that. Not a foregone conclusion or absolute fact.

As for what I believe, I believe I'll look at the long range forecasts, hope for the best but prepare for the worst. I honestly feel that we are not going to get off as lightly this winter as we did last year. If that turns out to be wrong, I'll certainly come back here next spring and say so. Whatever comes our way this winter, we, and our palms, will just have to deal with it. As oppalm alluded to, Mother Nature is gonna do what she wants to do. She has her own schedule and doesn't pay much attention to the predictions : )

my back hurts... it's gonna be cold! LOL

I don't know what it is, but I also have an inside feeling that we are going to have a lot of cold this year.

Perhaps it's because, since Sep hit, it's been colder than hoped.

We normally wait to assemble the greenhouse until mid/late Oct., but if the rain stops today, we want to get started on it now.

We've already brought the more sensitive plants inside the house into the plant room.

Sure hope my bones are wrong. :)p

With all this talk about winter, yall are making me cold. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

Okay, Time for my predictions.

Winter is going to be cold up north and milder in the south. The norther climes should expect snow at some point between November and March for sure. The nights are going to definitely be dark and colder than they are now and it would be wise to expect much more light and warmer temperatures during the day.

Oil and gas prices will continue to decline until just after the November mid-term elections, as luck and the weather would have it, at which point those prices will either rise or continue to drop, depending on who wins...um...I mean the weather.

Temperatures countrywide will inexplicably begin to climb in the Spring and will continue to do so well into the summer of 2007 where parts of the country will complain about the heat and weathermen will be absolutely astounded that it is actually HOT!

Trust me...this all WILL come to pass, but I could be off by a couple of degrees.

I don't mean to be smart, but with the exception of some anomalies, the weather is the weather! Mother Nature and global warming cannot be predicted, but expected. Stay warm, stay safe.

Daisy

As a lifetime weather enthusiast, I say watch out for what may happen if we get a negative north atlantic oscillation in conjunction with an El Nino pattern. Simply put, this combination can sometimes set the stage for impressive winter snowstorms in the eastern U.S.! I believe we had this combination in March 1993 with the so called SuperStorm which laid down a deadly onslaught of cold and snow over much of the east. Of course, I'm NOT saying this will happen, only that it is an interesting possibility. Long range forcasting is extremely tricky. Just look at what happened last year which started out quite cold. We all remember how exceptionally it all changed. We ended up with an extremely mild winter in most areas! Don't despair palm lovers! Just be prepared to protect your treasures.

Talk all you want but you will not know what winter is like until it ends.

Last year we had a warm winter forecasted, and yet we had a very 80s style december. Then, right before the holidays it warmed and never did get very cold again. The winter was above average, quite a bit, however just a few bad weeks in December did all the damage.

Each winter is very unique, at least here in the transitional area. It can be very mild and not snow at all in January or it might be below freezing with snow every other day and pile up on the ground for weeks.

Kyle