Have you guys seen a forecast today?

11 years ago

Two of our four stations have over a 50% chance of rain (and lots of it) for late in this week. I have not seen that happen a single times this year, where more than one station has predicted that this far in advance.

There must be a major system coming and all three models they use must be predicting it. They are also showing a large cool-down again.

I first thought the station had made a mistake and somehow had pulled an old forecast from sometime in March, LOL. A sedond station confirmed it though. The other two stations have not updated theirs yet for tonight.

I will not be counting on anything, but there will be a bounce in my step this week if they keep it in the forecast.

I now have a better appreciation for the risk real farmers face without insurance. I don't know what kind of crop we will have left and if anyone will buy it, but I know that with just three inches of rain somtime in June I would have had a 50,000 lb crop, our largest ever.

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Comments (3)

Okiedawn OK Zone 7
11 years ago
I'm happy your forecast looks so good.

Our forecast shows a much lower chance of rain for most days and some evenings---20 to 30%, but we're not hurting for rain nearly as much as you are so we're okay if none of that rain falls here this week.

Our forecasts show the same major cool-down by the end of the week.

Our temperatures are still overachieving--yesterday we were 5 degrees higher than forecast, but even if those higher-than-forecast temperatures keep occurring, the cool-down still will make us significantly cooler than we have been in a long time, other than on rainy days.

I hope you get to keep that bounce in your step all week long. I think it is a terrible shame that the June rainfall let you down. Once you get the pond bottom fixed so it holds all the water it is meant to hold, maybe you'll have insurance, in the form of water, to ensure that never happens again.

Even with insurance, these last couple of years have been awful for the farmers in many areas. I don't know how much longer they can keep hanging on. The ranchers are worse off because I don't think you can insure your hay pastures the way you can insure planted row crops. When I look at how few cows there are in the fields around us these last two summers compared to what we had even as recently as 5 to 10 years ago, the decrease is herd size is just huge.

Dawn
biradarcm
11 years ago
I am bit skeptical about the weather forecast these days especially rain! When i saw whether channel this morning was showing 20,40,30,40,30% chances of rain for Mon, Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri respectively, has made my day... but now they have changed their forecast to 0,20,0,30,30% rain for the same days. when they say 30% I assume we will not get any rain.
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scottokla
Original Author
11 years ago
I don't pay much attnetion to national forecasts (such as accuweather, intelliecast, weather channel) because from watching forecasts closely every morning and evening for a few years I have decided they are much less accurate than our local guys - especially 3 or more days out.

Our local guys are very good. Some are more hesitant to give a high percent chance of precip (channel 6 and channel 8) than others are (channel 2 and channel 23) in general when the models show rain a 4 or more days ahead. Any time they show a 20% chance 4 or more days out then it is still really iffy. If they up it to 30% or more they think there is a good chance. Any time they show 40% or more when it is stil more than 4 days away, they are fairly certain some of us will get rain at about that time. There has not been a single time since May that more than two of our stations have shown a 40% chance 4+ days out.

That said, the weekday guys have dropped the percentage slightly, but still 3 of the 4 have good chances Sat and Sun.