"But do you have an irrigation system? Dormant seeding won't make watering unnecessary. If you seed, you will need water." Actually, one reason some people dormant seed is to avoid needing to water. This assumes that there will be winter snow and/or spring moisture. Usually, there is enough moisture from the snow and rain that additional watering isn't necessary. I've never killed the existing lawn and tried it as the article above seems to be recommending, but I've overseeded an existing lawn with some success. I've got an irrigation system, but the air is so dry here that it's difficult to keep the surface moist. Since we get almost all of our precipitation between mid October and mid May, dormant seeding is about the only chance I have to benefit from natural precipitation. I'm planning to dormant seed late winter/early spring to help fill in the spots that never seem to get enough from the sprinklers. Since I'm overseeding with native grasses, once I get them established, I won't need to worry so much about whether they get any water.

The rye may have a chance. You should be able to find information listing the last possible seed date. New Jersey horticulture should reveal that. Otherwise you could try dormant seeding.

I just looked up your average first freeze date. One place said Oct 16 and another said Oct 7! The odds of mother nature being that out of the ordinary would seem slim. Though NWS long range maps has most of the US in for warmer than average winter. I still doubt its going to buy you the four to five weeks you need. But, if you have the time and money, you can always roll the dice.

Generally speaking, it is too late for much success this season. Even in my very mild climate, the middle of October is typically considered the cut-off point (and we are yet to experience nighttime temperatures below the mid 40's). Sometimes, later seeding will offer germination but the rate is poor and the germination very slow. Often the seed will rot in the winter rains and snow before it is able to germinates.