Hi

I think i would like to talk about solar cycle 24. But first i need to tell you that i am not scientist and i haven't done myself scientific research. I have read online text from many internet site , i have tried thinking it using common sense and try to make big picture about this thing. I think i have found quite good picture about it. Some way it is good thing not think it scientific thing, i meant if you do scientific research someone may want to look your results and find something that doesn't fit your results. Also someone might say some of your findings are not enough strong to support your conclusion.

I also should say this is not easy to tell this. I thought to tell this earlier, but i decided not to. Subject of the this thing is so, how i say it different from what many people think. I also say this can't be guaranteed this will happen. It is not sure this will happen. But i think it might be good to know thins thing.

Thing why i would like to talk about solar cycle 24 is because it might have consequence to weather. As this information come from different sites, i might not remember to say all what i have read. I try to explain things so you might understand this. O.K. i think we can now start.

First let's talk about solar cycle 24. Solar means sun. We are currently Solar cycle 24. This solar cycle is numbered 24. Now we have to explain few terms before we can continue this. Sun have sunspots in it. Sunspots are dark spots in sun. They are about 500 Celsius degrees colder than surrounding areas. This way we can see sunspots in sun as they are dark in color. Dark color are colder and red color is warm area. We see sunspots in sun surface. When we see sunspot in sun we have thing named sunspot number. It is number which tells how big sunspot/sunspots are (I don't know exactly how this number is counted but i think it is sufficiently for our purposes to get the big picture). When we have no sunspot on sun, we have sunspot number 0. Sun is blank in other words, no sunspots. Sunspot numbers are counted daily. Sunspot number can go up or down from day to day. To get this moving smoothed so longer trend can be seen, we have thing named smoothed sunspot number (SSN in abbrevation.). Monthly sunspot number is used. This smoothing is moving average. Moving average is for example, if we have numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 and have 10 day moving average we have average of 5,5. Next day number drops first observation and add new one on it and again average is calculated for example 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,12 gives 5,6 result. I read there is no generally accepted method how long smoothing is used, but i think i read one used 5 past months + 5 future months + 1 current month which makes 11 month. (5 Future months are taken in delay, which means if we are taking june 2010 situation then we get january 2010 SSN.) It is found that solar cycle have average length of 11 years. Now we need to get few more terms. We have things named solar minimum and solar maximum. It is found that sun goes thru cycles which have solar minimum and solar maximum. When we are solar minimum we have little sunspost/low sunspot number or no sunspots and in solar maximum we have more sunspots/high sunspot number. Solar cycle have solar minimum and solar maximum. Sunspots change polarity every cycle, so we can seperate them apart from different solar cycles. Identifying them which solar cycle they belong to. Consider you are in equator. When sun is north of you world northern hemisphere has summer. When sun is south of you world southern hemishpere has summer. Solar cycle starts from solar minimum and it peaks solar maximum and end in solar minimum. Transition from cycle to another cycle do not happen in one day. Now let's look what starts solar cycle, what condition should met to let new solar cycle to start. It is found that new (Solar cycle) sunspots form in high latitude of the sun and move to equator of the sun during solar cycle. So new reversed sunspot would first have to emerge. During transit old solar cycle and new solar cycle have sometime when both occur. Second thing is new solar cycle sunspot should exceed old solar cycle sunspot. Which we can seperate each other from polarity as explained above. Solar cycle last 11 years, which is 4 years up and 7 years down. Those was average, up means higher sunspot number and down means lower sunspot number. So solar cycle is front loaded as solar cycle rise first (Start of solar cycle) which take less time than fall (End of solar cycle). Solar cycle 24 started december 2008. First solar cycle 1 started year 1755. First numbered solar cycle. Solar cycle 23 ended 2008. That is 23 completed solar cycle. 2008-1755 is 253 years. 253 years divided to 23 solar cycle is 11 (253/23). Solar cycles are not same in their lenthg. They are not same also about their solar cycle maximum (SSN). They vary cycle to cycle. It is found that strong solar cycle (Big sunspot number) rise fast from solar minimum and low solar cycle (Low sunspot number) rise slowly from solar minimum. There appear to be connection between solar cycle length and solar cycle maximum. Let's take now look some of solar cycle numbers. Solar cycle 1 started march 1755, ended june 1766, maximum sunspot number 86,5 and lentgh of 11,3 years. Solar cycle 2 started june 1766, ended june 1775, maximum sunspot number 115,8 and length 9 years. Solar cycle 6 started december 1810, ended may 1823, maximum sunspot number 48,7 and length of 12,4 years. As you can see some connection can seen here as longer solar cycle have lower sunspot number. Also should perhaps note that longer it takes the new solar cycle to start, lower solar minimum is because old solar cycle sunspot number goes lower after solar maximum and sometime old solar cycle is not producing sunspots any more. One way to look at solar cycles is look at how much we had spotless days in solar cycle. Now let's back to current time and let's see where we are now, how things started to be when we started to wait to see start of new solar cycle 24. Solar cycle 23 started may 1996. So counting from that point if solar cycle 23 was average it should have ended 2007, 11 years after solar cycle 23 start. Nasa keep tracking solar cycle and predict solar cycle. Now let's move little bit time back and see what Nasa has to told us from year 2006.

Nasa wrote 2006 message which had title " Scientist predict big solar cycle". In message it says "evidence is mounting, the next solar cycle is going to be big one." It also tells solar cycle 24 is due peak in 2010 or 2011. "Looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almoust 400 years ago". Message says next solar maximum should peak around 2010 with a sunspot number of 160 plus minus 25. That sounds quite high sunspot number. Solar cycle 24 is forecast to be intense in other words. Hathaway is looking solar cycle progression and makes prediction of solar cycle. Now let's look how our sun matched this prediction. Remember we have to see new cycle sunspot first. Hathaway is looking new cycle sunspot as of sign of coming solar cycle. If solar cycle 24 would start 2006 it would be good sign that solar cycle 24 would be high, if not thing might be different.

But something went wrong. New polarity sunspot didn't emerge in 2006. On 2007 things started to develop, conditions started to come close to start. Could our new solar cycle starts? Message subject was " is a new solar cycle about the begin"? But now solar cycle 23 would not be short anymore, now it would be about average. 2007-1996 is 11 years. Also message now says solar cycle peaking 2011 or 2012. That didn't was so good, as long solar cycles are weak if that connection is to hold. It didn't also appear in 2007. On 2008 Nasa had message which told on 4.1.2008.(Day.month.year) new solar cycle sunspot has emerged with reversed polarity. "It signals of the start of solar cycle 24" says message. Now first criteria have been met. Next new solar cycle 24 sunspots still need to exceed old solar cycle sunspots. New solar cycle 24 started december 2008 as i wrote earlier. That makes solar cycle 23 12,6 years long. Average length was 11 years. That makes solar cycle 23 longer than average. Nasa is trying to make monthly update to it's prediction. This slow start is not good thing for solar cycle 24. Solar cycle 23 peaked sunspot number about 120 sunspot number. On 2009 message from Nasa says " Solar cycle 24 will peak, they say, in may 2013, with a below-average number of sunspot". They was international panel of experts. Also it said " if our prediction is correct, solar cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when solar cycle 16 peakes at 78". Looks like slow start of solar cycle 24 is lowered prediction. Nasa is making solar cycle prediction of monthly (It didn't say monthly, but i have seen it is monthly updated, actually it skipped 1 month and i saw it.). On 6.12.2010.(Day.month.year) for december 2010 prediction Nasa has solar maximum at 64. Solar cycle 24 maximum prediction is moved from big solar cycle to below average solar cycle. Solar cycle 24 maximum prediction is about half what was solar cycle 23 maximum (64/120,8=0,52 0,52*100=52%) .

What is happened? We fall deep solar minimum. Solar cycle 24 started later than first was thought. When old solar cycle is coming close to end days without spotless days might increase. Also longer it takes to new solar cycle to start more spotless days we might get. So how our solar cycle is progression if we look at spotless days? I have found internet site which have number how many spotless days sun have in year since 1849. 2008 Sun had 266 spotless days and it made it to top 5 spotless years. 2009 Also made it top 5 spotless years. 2007 Made it top 25 spotless years. So we had 3 years in a row with much spotless days. When sun had previosly 3 years in arow with so much spotless days? Last time when sun has much spotless days in 3 years in row was 1911, 1912 and 1913. We are having this solar cycle transit 819 spotless days according spaceweather internet site. Last solar cycle transit had 309 spotless days. So we have over 2 times more spotless days than last solar cycle transit. This don't look good. Last time when sun had same amount spotless days was during solar cycle 15 when sun had over 1 000 spotless days. This solar cycle minimum is called deep solar mimimum, centyry level solar minimum. That is about right, those 3 years mentioned above happened about 100 years ago. Solar cycle 24 is behaving more like old solar cycle of early 1900's rather than modern solar cycle. Now you might have some idea about solar cycle 24 and why this looks little bit worry (Sorry i didn't found how to write that word right way, but hopefully you got what i meant.)).

Before talking about weather thing relating to solar cycle let's look one document from Nasa from 2006 which tells long range prediction of solar cycle. That paper had subject " long range solar forecast". Take the big picture of this. "Solar cycle 25 peaking around 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries" says document. Document said sun has The Great Conveyour Belt which is a massive circulating current hot fire (hot plasma) within sun. It have 2 branches one in north and another in south, each taking about 40 years to perform one complete circuit. Research believe turning of the belt controls the sunspot cycle and that's why the slowdown is important. "Normally the conveyour belt moves about 1 meter per second - walking pace" - says Hathaway. "That's how it has been since the late 19th century". In recent years ,however, the belt has decelerated to 0.75 m/s in the north and 0.35 m/s in the south." "We've never seen speeds so slow.". "According to theory and observation, the speed of the belt foretells intensity of sunspot activity 20 years in the future. A slow belt means lower solar activity, a fast belt means stronger activity." " The slowdown we see now means that Solar Cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the weakest in centuries" says Hathaway. I think this means that if Solar cycle 24 is weak, solar cycle 25 which follows solar cycle 24 might be even more weak.

Now weather thing relating solar cycle, which is hard part to tell. Sun turns us from winter to summer when days get longer. Mine dad has said if sun would stop burning, life in world would end (Actually life would not end right that time, it would take to the end that time when last sun ray reach world). I think this means sun have significance to weather. Now i have to say read following with open mind. I meant clear your mind so that you might understand following text.

I understand so that people likes warm weather, i meant people are happy when weather is warm. Peoples do better when world is warm. When world is cold people do not do so good. When i look U.S.A. 2008 population (I know it is estimate.) states that is warm have high population and cold state have low population (If we think it in U.S.A. population way.). If we look USDA map we see that is the case. Florida, Texas, California, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia have high population. Those seems also be high in population. New York is high population and have relatively warm zone in the coast, but New York city is in coastal which is warmer part of state based on USDA zone. So there population is centered to warmer area. Montana is cold in zone and have low population. This makes images that people like warm and do better in warm weather.

It is thought that active sun makes world warmer. Active sun means strong solar cycle as told earlier. People have tried to find correlation between sun and world temperature. If sun is active will earth receive more heat from sun? Solar cycles vary their strengthen (Solar cycle maximum) as well their length. I read that correlation is found between solar cycles (Sunspot number) and world temperature, but stronger correlation is found between solar cycle length and world temperature. We have 400 years solar cycle data, but have only from 1880 or 1850 temperature data (World temperature, but we do have from Europe some older temperature data from 1700's and 1600's). So we don't have temperature data as long as solar data. People used to use thing called "proxy" to get the temperature data from earlier in history what temperature where in world. Now we may look at temperature history of world. People have said that to understand future, you need to understand history.

I need to stop now. I might continue later.