I'm sure it will in the summer if not before. This year is just beginning.

taz - I meant warmer than average:) 2 years ago it was cold and damp, and I had lots of slugs. Not a very good year. Not to mention the late blight problem. But last year was much warmer, and stuff grew a lot better. So I'm hoping for something like last year.

Do a search for long range forecasts. They have models of probability that the temperatures and precipitation will vary from 'normal' covering the entire US.

Here is one site: www.wrcc.dri.edu/longrang.html

Here is a link that might be useful: Long lead climate outlooks

beeone - Thanks, that's the kind of thing I'm looking for. And so far I think it's telling me there's an equal chance of it being warmer than usual, the same, or colder than usual. They really went out on a limb with that prediction:) And they mentioned the Farmers' Almanac in their FAQ, so I'll check that out when I get a chance.

We Michiganders know that unpredictability is normal.

Our prediction for this winter was warmer than average, less snow than average. It could not have been more off!

Last year, though summer was not one for record highs, we accumulated the most Growing Degree Days in the last five years. And rain - it was almost non-existent from early August until early October.

William Deedler, a meterologist with the National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac office in White Lake puts out excellent prognostic forecasts for each season. I've found them to be quite accurate, and it does give you a bit of a clue as to what might happen.

See what he says in the spring outlook, due out in the next few weeks her (well, by mid-March). If he says a warm spring, odds are it will be a warmer than average summer, as happened last year. In contrast, spring of 2009 was cold, and so was the summer.

Here is a link that might be useful: Winter 2010-2011 Outlook from the NWS Detroit office

kay - I don't think they predicted the last 2 blizzards we just had. And last year I remember they kept warning us about lots of snow, but we never got it.

wordwiz - Sounds like you have the same guy predicting your weather:)

denn - Thanks, I'll look for his next forecast.

Just checked with Al Gore.
He said it will begin to warm up soon, followed by a warmer spell around summer and then cooling dramatically around November into Feb. He said he can't predict further than that because he has not checked with the models on weather patterns in his backyard. He will get back to me next spring and let me know.
I believe him! He knows it all!

(just kidding folks.)

mailman - Al's a smart guy. You know he invented the internet.

Waiting for the day to come when Algore is fat! no longer appears to infantilize comment threads...any day now. Annnnnny daaayyyy...

Puerile distractions aside, there was an unusual confluence of patterns this year, and combined with the reversal of La Nina, it appears that the American Southwest will be hit with the heat and the drought. The Northeast at this point looks to be normal, which is the average when La Nina goes away. Globally it looks to be another hot year, which will impact food prices again, especially if we continue to subsidize corn for fuel to win votes.

Dan

Temperatures should be average in Michigan for the 2011 Spring, Summer and Fall. There is a 5-10% probability of a slightly cooler than average Mar/Apr/May, but this may only be noticeable in the northwest part of the state.

Precipitation should be average throughout the year.

Six months from now, the forecast may change slightly, as the La Nina causing cold Equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean, has matured and should begin to weaken in the months of May and June.

Any questions?

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mover of our climate here in the Pacific Northwest. At http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml you can follow the current temperature in the equatorial Pacific. The 3.4 is the main one that I watch.

La Nina conditions made for the most difficult gardening conditions ever experienced in the northern half of the USA in 2008 according to reports by many. Then El Nino conditions in 2009 made for a great season for many including us here in the PNW. Last year, we were entering La Nina conditions in the spring and it was the coldest and latest spring ever recorded here. The gardening season was very difficult for many of us but some reported a great summer. So you may be able to determine what ENSO conditions are best for you. For us, we do best in El Nino summers.

We have been in deep La Nina condtions but the recent trend according to the above website shows warming. The folks at the link below are boldly stating that there is a 50 percent chance of either an average spring or a La Nina spring!

Here is a link that might be useful: ENSO info